Japanese arms export ban lifted - what now?

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swerve

Super Moderator
It was announced two days ago. There will still be restrictions, but the blanket ban is gone. This will allow co-development, & (in practice, taking into account the remaining controls), the export of weapons to most developed countries & stable, western-inclined, other states.

Japan relaxes weapons export ban - FT.com

It will be interesting to see which Japanese products & military technologies are competitive. Submarines & warships are certainly possibilities, & perhaps military transport maritime patrol aircraft. Longer-term, it could induce some companies which have excellent technology & production skills, but no current military programmes, to move into dual-use products, & perhaps eventually weapons & systems.

What do y'all think?
 
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legoboy

New Member
swerve said:
It was announced two days ago. There will still be restrictions, but the blanket ban is gone. This will allow co-development, & (in practice, taking into account the remaining controls), the export of weapons to most developed countries & stable, western-inclined, other states.

Japan relaxes weapons export ban - FT.com

It will be interesting to see which Japanese products & military technologies are competitive. Submarines & warships are certainly possibilities, & perhaps military transport maritime patrol aircraft. Longer-term, it could induce some companies which have excellent technology & production skills, but no current military programmes, to move into dual-use products, & perhaps eventually weapons & systems.

What do y'all think?
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Japan is definitely the one prominent country that has the technological capability to be challenging the US/Russia/China in the arms market in the future.
 
gf0012-aust

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Japanese have been making it pretty clear that they want closer military ties with australia.

they already have R&D regarding hypersonics out here. I'd love to see closer co-op on subs, digital tech, sig management, ISR in general
 
t68

t68

Well-Known Member
gf0012-aust said:
The Japanese have been making it pretty clear that they want closer military ties with australia.

they already have R&D regarding hypersonics out here. I'd love to see closer co-op on subs, digital tech, sig management, ISR in general
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What’s the political take on this by the major’s parties (we know what the greens will say), as some still have long and bitter memories about the Japanese with our past experience? Only have to remember the kerfuffle in the media about Australian overwatch the Japanese reconstruction team in Afghanistan from memory.

I personnel see it as a win-win situation for Oz in a lot of area for OZ which you have mentioned.

Could it be a 3 way in the submarine caper for Japan/Australia/Canada all in the same boat. (pardon the pun)
 
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EnigmaNZ

New Member
I wonder if Taiwan might finally have a submarine supplier. Japan builds a replacement sub every year, with a force about 20 strong, old boats are removed from service with plenty of life left in them. I hope something along this line occurs.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
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t68 said:
... some still have long and bitter memories about the Japanese with our past experience? Only have to remember the kerfuffle in the media about Australian overwatch the Japanese reconstruction team in Afghanistan from memory.
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Crazily tight RoEs for JSDF personnel won't apply to co-developed submarines crewed by Australians, or any other exported or co-developed equipment.

Going further back, the only Japanese person I know who was involved in WW2* is now 100 years old, in a nursing home, & only intermittently lucid. Not many people who really remember, rather than remembering stories, & none of those involved on the Japanese side are active in anything nowadays.

*I sometimes wonder if the Chinese vase he once gave me was from his time in Singapore.
 
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Waylander

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Being sceptical about Japanese weapons exports to Australia because of their past but driving around in German Panzers™ since 1976 seems a bit funny to me...;)

I go along with Swerve. Supporting the Japanese economy by opening lots of markets for components and dual use stuff is probably the main aim of the Japanese government. There is alot of money to be made in these markets for the highly advanced companies of Japan. The same applies to the automotive industry. Large and medium contracts for military trucks and such stuff mean good money for the companies but are normally under the radar of the general public and media.

I for one am not happy with this move as I expect the German defense companies to take a hit although I can only speculate about how big it will be.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
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Japanese electronics firms would probably love to sell components into the military electronics market, & it'd be interesting to see whether some of their current radars & other systems start competing internationally.

Vehicles - oh yes! Toyota is already a conspicuously large supplier to armed forces around the world, many of them informal, & I expect would be interested in capitalising on the reputation its 4WDs have earned.
 
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t68

t68

Well-Known Member
Waylander said:
Being sceptical about Japanese weapons exports to Australia because of their past but driving around in German Panzers™ since 1976 seems a bit funny to me...;)
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Perception is the difference, there are still a lot of WWII blokes around who still remember the Japanese and the atrocities in the Pacific theatre and their perspective is still passed down over the years which may prejudice the feeling of the next of kin. But I do believe that the Japanese are being accepted more and more as time goes by, I remember when I was growing up their was a very big anti-Japanese feeling about not so much anti-German.

Also most Australians when they think of WWII Germany think of Adolf Hitler as the bad man not the soldiers, but unfortunately it’s the Japanese solder who most Australians think of Japan.
 
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aussienscale

aussienscale

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I don't think it is as big an issue as some may think. The media would make a bigger beat up of the fact and then paralleling it with a nice juicy article on whaling in the southern ocean.

What I think will be very interesting is what will be brought to the table in the electronic side of things, what their systems will bring to the table will be of interest, but the bits that make it work and to potential impact on system development and growth will be the one to watch over the next 10 years
 
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legoboy

New Member
t68 said:
Perception is the difference, there are still a lot of WWII blokes around who still remember the Japanese and the atrocities in the Pacific theatre and their perspective is still passed down over the years which may prejudice the feeling of the next of kin. But I do believe that the Japanese are being accepted more and more as time goes by, I remember when I was growing up their was a very big anti-Japanese feeling about not so much anti-German.

Also most Australians when they think of WWII Germany think of Adolf Hitler as the bad man not the soldiers, but unfortunately it’s the Japanese solder who most Australians think of Japan.
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Perhaps you live in a more rural area where there are more "rednecks".

I live in Melbourne and there is no such thing.
 
StingrayOZ

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
There is(was?) a specific problem with some WWII vets because the Japanese never really clearly said sorry and they got to keep the emperor. However the number of WWII vets is getting very very small, and it was only a small number that really were holding onto this issue. It occasionally comes up where it comes to moving bodies of convicted war crime personnel back to japan from where they were executed in the pacific. WWII has been over for a very long time.

The whaling thing is also kind of annoying but neither issues are deal breakers.

If it was a big problem Toyota wouldn't be the number 1 auto seller in Australia. I always laugh when I see a sea Shepard sticker on a Toyota. Thats how intertwined the issues are (ie not at all).

We have much greater problems to deal with and some hope that working together will improve relations between our two nations so that we can become much tighter.
 
ASSAIL

ASSAIL

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aussienscale said:
I don't think it is as big an issue as some may think. The media would make a bigger beat up of the fact and then paralleling it with a nice juicy article on whaling in the southern ocean.

What I think will be very interesting is what will be brought to the table in the electronic side of things, what their systems will bring to the table will be of interest, but the bits that make it work and to potential impact on system development and growth will be the one to watch over the next 10 years
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I agree that the whaling issue is annoying. Any seaman who has watched the antics of the Sea Shepherd group in the Southern Ocean would be appalled at their total disregard for COLREGS thereby endangering all in some grandstanding gesture. Regardless of which side of the issue one supports, their actions are wrong and is one of the reasons that Greenpeace expelled them.

On the issue of Japanese quality and expertise in all things maritime there is no question that they rank alongside the best in the world and their input into any joint programme, specifically submarines, would ensure a great outcome.

I have had three Japanese built vessels (500-1000 tonnes disp.) in the fleet which I have both commanded and managed over the last 30 years and I can report that the performance and reliability of electronics, control systems, hydraulics, switchboards/wiring, main machinery et al is not only equal to the oz built, US sourced, but also in most cases superior.

Happy New Year to all
Chris

PS My grandfather was a New Guinea planter captured in Rabaul and died in the Montivideo Maru disaster!
 
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rossfrb_1

Member
Apart from the potential for co-operation between Australia & Japan on things submarine related, I also wonder whether the Kawasaki C2 might give the A400M a run. From Wiki the C2 seems quite competitive cost and performance wise...
 
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CheeZe

Active Member
There is(was?) a specific problem with some WWII vets because the Japanese never really clearly said sorry and they got to keep the emperor.
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They've never said sorry to anyone which is why China (including Taiwan) is not very happy with them. The retention of the Emperor is, in large part, due to MacArthur's pushing for him to be kept. Big fear amongst some in the American Occupation was that there'd be a mass revolt if the Emperor was deposed.

As regards the exports weapons ban, I'm curious to see what this means for their new MBT in development.

I don't think we'll see much from a Japan/Taiwan standpoint because the last thing Tokyo wants to do is to further incense Beijing. If textbooks get the Chinese (and rightfully so, i feel) riled up, arms sales would be ugly. Especially if it was on naval/power projection equipment. It hurts already strained relations with China, harms economic interests and destabilizes the balance of power in East Asia. Japan won't be rocking that boat of they're smart.
 
Musashi_kenshin

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
CheeZe said:
They've never said sorry to anyone which is why China (including Taiwan) is not very happy with them.
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Japan is generally seen favourably in Taiwan (or at least more favourably than China is seen). And Japan has made various apologies over the years for its conduct during the war. A year or two ago Prime Minister Wen Jiabao admitted that Japan has apologised. But the CCP finds it useful every so often to pretend otherwise and whip up Chinese nationalism through State-controlled media.

But this is really off-topic. I cannot think of a single country that Japan would willingly sell arms to that would not want to buy Japanese arms or cooperate in defence matters because of the war.

I don't think we'll see much from a Japan/Taiwan standpoint because the last thing Tokyo wants to do is to further incense Beijing.
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China acts angry when weapons are sold to Taiwan. It makes very large threats but never does much. The US has made a large number of sales in the last five years and all that's happened is that defence ties were reduced or suspended.

However, I think that it is unlikely Japan will suddenly start selling arms to Taiwan. Japan will gradually break into the defence sales business, starting with cooperation with countries like Australia. Though if Taiwan starts funding its own submarine programme, it's always possible that Japanese companies might get involved in one way or another.
 
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swerve

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CheeZe said:
They've never said sorry to anyone .
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This is one of those ridiculous myths about Japan, such as arms sales being banned by the constitution. They've said sorry many times, to many people & countries. There are lists of official Japanese apologies on the internet, & if you bothered to look, you'd easily find them. There are articles & books about them.
 
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Rish

New Member
Musashi_kenshin said:
Japan is generally seen favourably in Taiwan (or at least more favourably than China is seen). And Japan has made various apologies over the years for its conduct during the war. A year or two ago Prime Minister Wen Jiabao admitted that Japan has apologised. But the CCP finds it useful every so often to pretend otherwise and whip up Chinese nationalism through State-controlled media.

But this is really off-topic. I cannot think of a single country that Japan would willingly sell arms to that would not want to buy Japanese arms or cooperate in defence matters because of the war.



China acts angry when weapons are sold to Taiwan. It makes very large threats but never does much. The US has made a large number of sales in the last five years and all that's happened is that defence ties were reduced or suspended.

However, I think that it is unlikely Japan will suddenly start selling arms to Taiwan. Japan will gradually break into the defence sales business, starting with cooperation with countries like Australia. Though if Taiwan starts funding its own submarine programme, it's always possible that Japanese companies might get involved in one way or another.
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The Japanese could also offer their tech/collaboration for Project 75I subs India is planning. RFI's were issued a couple years back, or so I believe, but they haven't gone much past that. Maybe the Japanese shipyards could make an offer since the selection is on-going. I wonder how the Soryu class would hold up against European and Russian competition...

Politically, it would be a big step for India and I'm sure it'll make some neighbors nervous.
 
T

tphuang

Super Moderator
Musashi_kenshin said:
Japan is generally seen favourably in Taiwan (or at least more favourably than China is seen). And Japan has made various apologies over the years for its conduct during the war. A year or two ago Prime Minister Wen Jiabao admitted that Japan has apologised. But the CCP finds it useful every so often to pretend otherwise and whip up Chinese nationalism through State-controlled media.

But this is really off-topic. I cannot think of a single country that Japan would willingly sell arms to that would not want to buy Japanese arms or cooperate in defence matters because of the war.

China acts angry when weapons are sold to Taiwan. It makes very large threats but never does much. The US has made a large number of sales in the last five years and all that's happened is that defence ties were reduced or suspended.

However, I think that it is unlikely Japan will suddenly start selling arms to Taiwan. Japan will gradually break into the defence sales business, starting with cooperation with countries like Australia. Though if Taiwan starts funding its own submarine programme, it's always possible that Japanese companies might get involved in one way or another.
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I don't think Japan/Taiwan military cooperation will happen due to a variety of reasons. Although if it does happen, it will not be because Taiwan likes Japan better than China. It will be because Taiwan has no where else to go for weaponry and Japan is willing to risk getting into a trade war with China.

btw, just to address something here. It's off topic, but what you said about Japanese apologies is actually quite offensive. Most Chinese people my age and older know someone around them or their relative that got tortured to death by Japanese soldiers in WWII. This is not made up by Chinese government to stir up nationalism. If you go to Nanjing nowadays, you still would not see a single Japanese business operating within the city premise. Rather than blaming Chinese government for not accepting the few Japanese apologies over the years. Think about why Japanese government is not apologetic toward China/Korea the way that Germany is apologetic toward Israel. Also, Chinese government killing its own people should not be a defense here, since that only means both Japanese and Chinese government should be more apologetic toward the Chinese population.
 
Musashi_kenshin

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
tphuang said:
Although if it does happen, it will not be because Taiwan likes Japan better than China. It will be because Taiwan has no where else to go for weaponry and Japan is willing to risk getting into a trade war with China.
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I was trying to indicate that Taiwanese-Japanese relations are not that bad. And I don't agree that Taiwan would buy arms from Japan only as a last resort. If they were competitive on price and quality I think Taiwan would be interested.

However, as I said it's unlikely we would see any sales to Taiwan in the near future. Japan will certainly start elsewhere.

This is not made up by Chinese government to stir up nationalism.
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Japanese war crimes are certainly not made up, and I know for a fact that a very large majority of Chinese people care about what happened. What I said was that, despite what Wen Jiabao said about previous apologies, as a whole the Chinese State will ignore that fact when convenient and drag the war up through the media.
 
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