Japanese arms export ban lifted - what now?

[CheeZe]

I'm with tphuang on Japan/China. Most Asian countries who suffered under Japan are that way. My grandparents have never found it possible to forgive the Japanese for the Occupation of Singapore. A week ago, I visited the site of a couple mass graves at Bukit Brown. Chinese men, executed for one reason or another, who have never been identified. My family suspects that my maternal grandmother was raped during the Occupation, hence my step-aunt. No one has dared to ask her what happened.

I don't consider what they've said or done to be evidence of sincere regret. My grandparents are still traumatized so how do a few official apologies help them? I have nothing against the Japanese but when I look at the two sides, I find it very hard to take sides with them when it comes to World War II.

If you say that the Taiwanese have less problems with the Japanese, I wonder what rose-tinted lenses you have. They were a Japanese colony... the other former Japanese colonies still aren't very happy with Japan so I have a hard time believing that Taiwan and Japan are that friendly.

On topic, Japan stands to lose more by getting into a trade war with China than it would by arms sales to Taiwan. The US can do it because they've got the muscle to back it up and its not them whose necks are directly on the firing line. China and Japan are much closer and I doubt any side (Taiwan, China or Japan) wants to ratchet up any tensions.

 

[StingrayOZ]

From my basic understanding Japan has expressed condolences not in particular sorry. I remember a WWII Vet being dragged off the stage or something after demanding the Japanese use a particular Japanese word when apologising. Im not aware of Japan paying reparations to individuals for actions during the war in the same way as Germany has done. Sorry admits guilt, Australia wrestled for a while about saying sorry to the Aboriginals (and so do many other countries) so its a tricky thing usually done on a legal basis.

There are people in the Uk that refuse to drive a German car for similar reasons, however those people tend not to set foreign policy.

Regardless, won't affect Japan/Australia relations. Japan arm sales to Taiwan may improve relations there. We can't hold onto things forever, otherwise like some regions, the hatred can fester for hundreds or thousands of years.

Australia tends to get on well with former enemies. Turks, Germans, Japanese, Vietnamese. Im sure Australia will be one of the first to take advantage of the changes.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

If you say that the Taiwanese have less problems with the Japanese, I wonder what rose-tinted lenses you have.

It's an understanding I've come to through polling and more general impressions.

Most Taiwanese prefer Japan over China, survey finds | The Japan Times Online

Whilst Taiwanese want good relations with China, a majority also seem to have moved on from the colonial era.

The US ... and its not them whose necks are directly on the firing line.

I don't understand what point you're making. If it's regarding a possible conflict, China isn't going to go to war with anyone over arms sales to Taiwan, unless it loses the plot completely.

As for who would be losing what, China would suffer a lot as well from an economic war with Japan. After all these days countries are linked and there would be secondary effects that would impact China as well. Not to mention the inevitable damage to Chinese foreign diplomacy.

 

[legoboy]

It's an understanding I've come to through polling and more general impressions.

Most Taiwanese prefer Japan over China, survey finds | The Japan Times Online

Whilst Taiwanese want good relations with China, a majority also seem to have moved on from the colonial era.
.

These surveys are often extremely bias due to the fact that the people that bother to respond are often extremely bias in one way or another towards one side of the argument.

Your typical 99.99% of the population that doesn't care won't even bother wasting their time on these things, so your left with the remaining 00.01% of hardcores responding to these surveys.

 

[swerve]

From my basic understanding Japan has expressed condolences not in particular sorry. I remember a WWII Vet being dragged off the stage or something after demanding the Japanese use a particular Japanese word when apologising. Im not aware of Japan paying reparations to individuals for actions during the war in the same way as Germany has done.

Some of the many Japanese official statements have been expressions of generalised regret. Others have been outright admissions of Japanese wrongdoing, couched in apologetic terms.

The question of apologies, & the specific wording, is a difficult one. I, for example, would never apologise for something for which I have no responsibility, & many of the demands for apologies from governments these days fall into that category. One can regret that others have done something, express that regret & sympathy, but if one had no involvement - perhaps wasn't even born - how can one apologise?

Japan has paid out large sums in reparations, starting in the 1950s. As I understand it, reparation payments to governments were paid on the understanding that those governments assumed the responsibility for compensating individuals, as with German reparation payments to governments. China refused reparations (meant for both the state & individuals) when they were offered, but a couple of decades later backed campaigns by individuals. S. Korea accepted a full & final payment in 1965, but also later backed demands by individuals.

There's a hell of a lot of hypocrisy out there.

 

[Lostfleet]

I don't know much about politics, but since world economy is going down with one crisis after another, do you think export Japanese weapons would be comparable in price to weapons exported from US or EU?

Would it be cheaper or more expensive? For example at the submarines?



edit -typo

 

[swerve]

It's generally thought that Japanese weapons are expensive, but this is exacerbated by, & could be solely a result of, small production runs for the JSDF. We all know how efficient Japanese manufacturers in general are, when they compete internationally. As already discussed, they'll probably start out exporting the sort of stuff that they already excel in making at competitive prices, i.e. dual-use kit & components. Anyone want Japanese optics or digital sensors for recce? Japanese military trucks? Japanese shipbuilding is also famously competitive in high-end, high-quality vessels - and warships slot nicely into that category.

There's nobody else making submarines quite like those built in Japan for the JMSDF. The Collins class is the nearest non-Japanese equivalent. This gives Japanese yards a considerable advantage.

 

[NICO]

It's generally thought that Japanese weapons are expensive, but this is exacerbated by, & could be solely a result of, small production runs for the JSDF. We all know how efficient Japanese manufacturers in general are, when they compete internationally. As already discussed, they'll probably start out exporting the sort of stuff that they already excel in making at competitive prices, i.e. dual-use kit & components. Anyone want Japanese optics or digital sensors for recce? Japanese military trucks? Japanese shipbuilding is also famously competitive in high-end, high-quality vessels - and warships slot nicely into that category.

There's nobody else making submarines quite like those built in Japan for the JMSDF. The Collins class is the nearest non-Japanese equivalent. This gives Japanese yards a considerable advantage.

I think Australia looking at buying a Japanese sub or entering into a JV for a new build would be very good. I just feel it might be too early and quite a step for Japan to take right away, Japan has shown the world that they can make great products but they don't have a lot of experience when it comes to exporting military products, it might be too big a project to come out of the gate. Maybe Japan will start with dual use electronics or like you said trucks or support ships, then move on to move complex sales...like selling or developing a sub with Australia.

 

[colay]

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_apology_statements_issued_by_Japan"]List of war apology statements issued by Japan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

A compilation by Wiki of Japanese statements of remorse/regretapologies thru the years.
The Japanese seem to have been shying away from the "apology" word in ther first few decades after the war but starting around 2000 we see the term used more frequently.

 

[PCShogun]

I agree that bad feelings still do exist, and I bet many countries would reject large scale weapons purchases from Japan, due mainly to the conduct during World War II. I personally know many U.S. vets that will not buy cars made in Japan for this reason. China and Korea still hold bad feelings due to their occupations. It may be time though for Japan to enter the military stage. Germany has been forgiven, as has Italy.

Japan will find markets. Either as part of a cooperative effort, parts suppliers, or outright manufacturers. Japanese technology is very cutting edge and would be preferable to Chinese parts in many military industry due to recent tensions and issues over quality.

 

[Ananda]

What kind of weapon or technologies that Japan in the end willing to sell to the market ? Japan it self already supply some of dual-technology/dual-used technology/assets to foreign nation. Indonesia Police and Coast Guard for time to time got Patrol boats and other dual-used asset from Japan.

In short, if Japan really want to play in the international armed market, they have technology and industrial capacity to do that. The high price of Japanese military hardware, is due more to small size of economic of scale they produce relative to the cost in developing them. Thus if they want to sell to overseas market, they can find the economic scale they looking out to make the hardware competitively priced.

For example, there's a debate in Indonesia on what MBT should be used by Indonesian Army in the end, with the choice focused to Leo 2 and T-90. The supporters for Leo 2 insist on the quality and technological advancement of Leo 2. While the proponent of T-90 focused on the weight of Leo 2 which is more than 60 tons is unsuitable for Indonesian geography and land condition. Thus the weight of T-90 that around 40+ ton is more suitable.

If Japan can made their new Type 10 MBT less costly, then with only 40+ ton weight, but with more advance technological capabilities than T-90, it can attracted quite a number of potential customers that perhaps rather discourage with the size of Nato standard MBT, but can be attracted to MBT with smaller placement but with competitive technology compared to big and heavy Nato standard MBT.

Japan military hardware so far in my opinion show relative competitive technology toward Nato hardware, but sometimes with more compact packages. If they can create competitive electronics and automobile, it just a matter of time for them to create more cost competitive hardware for world military market.

Sorry but I do think, bad feeling for Japan due to WW 2, already become less a matter toward Japanese products including Military hardware. Some still have and hold grudges to Japan, but majority of world market will wait with anticipation for Japanese military hardware, provided they can make them relative competitively priced.

 

[CheeZe]

The Type10 is still in development. It won't even be ready for production for some time, let alone export. If Indonesia is willing to wait that long, several years at least, then that's fine. But it's not a platform we're going to see deployed soon. After all, priority goes to the JGSDF before any export customer.

Also, if it gets cheapened, what gets sacrificed? What major expensive component(s) can you replace with a cheaper version and still retain the platform's quality?

 

[Ananda]

Also, if it gets cheapened, what gets sacrificed? What major expensive component(s) can you replace with a cheaper version and still retain the platform's quality?

The expensiveness of Japanese Military Hardware is more due to the fact they being produced not to the economic of scale in numbers. If they can be produced to meet the economic of scale (thus by exporting them), their costs to run can be reduced.

The US hardware say F-16, considered to be one of the most economics fighter to run not because it's less sophisticated then (say Rafale), but because it been produced in much larger number.

 

[HKP]

Japan is definitely the one prominent country that has the technological capability to be challenging the US/Russia/China in the arms market in the future.

Absolutely, I can see Japan will produce superior quality with high technologies at competitive costs and will heavily compete with Russia, China, and the US in the defense industry . This is very interesting to see in the near future. Just as they did in the electronics and automotive industry.

 

[Arthicrex]

Is this article credible?

http://www6.lexisnexis.com/publishe...Id=162620009&docId=l:1583973181&Em=7&start=51

The weapon export ban was lifted rather quietly, but if Japan starts exporting something as big as Soryu class sub right away, Japanese general public may go crazy.

 

[swerve]

But it won't be right away. The RAN won't be placing any orders for years, and when it does, it's more likely to want a co-developed modified Soryu (or Soryu successor) than an off the shelf JMSDF standard one.

 

[HKP]

Is this article credible?

http://www6.lexisnexis.com/publishe...Id=162620009&docId=l:1583973181&Em=7&start=51

The weapon export ban was lifted rather quietly, but if Japan starts exporting something as big as Soryu class sub right away, Japanese general public may go crazy.

Japan will probably will start exporting in smaller items like small arms, choppers, patrol crafts, artillery, MBTs, etc. the big items like subs, frigrates, missiles and jet fighters will come later. they surely want to see and feel the market for them being the new kid in the market, they need to assert their name into the market and go from there slowly but surely.

 

[Waylander]

You think that SPGs and MBTs are not big items? Those are huge procurements in most countries.

 

[HKP]

You think that SPGs and MBTs are not big items? Those are huge procurements in most countries.

well, they already have their own MBTs but not exportable. But now with the lifting of the ban, what Im saying is they may export these too. Is this a big item? maybe or not, they will be one to decide.

 

[Waylander]

You were the one who said that stuff like choppers, artillery and MBTs are no big items.
And I am not agreeing with you on this.

Reequipping a sizebale part of ones armoured corps with modern MBTs could also buy you some nice FFGs...