Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[iambuzzard]

I remember Adm Hammond discussing the Arafura and drones, back in the February senate estimates. I went back and refreshed my memory. The below defence connect is perhaps the best summary of that.

Navy leaders clarify drone integration plan for Arafura Class OPVs

So, clearly articulating the intent to use the Arafuras as a drone platform, in particular arial and surface, rather than undersea.

The advantage of an Arafura is that it can travel about 5 times faster than a surface or underwater drone. It can pick up, transport, drop and then monitor. And if need be refuel. It's the difference between moving a 1000kms in two days rather than 10 days.

I also noted earlier that the bluebottle can launch and recover aerial drones. I think Arafura could carry bluebottles on the flight deck on a cradle, they would not need to be containerised. The sail I know folds down. I wonder if the keel can be retracted, then it would be a very compact unit.

Sounds good, Sammy. But they must give them a decent gun. Would a 57mm with programable ammo be able to be installed?
What's the deck penetration on a 57mm as opposed to a 40mm Bofors? Would the ship have systems capable of handling it?

 

[spoz]

For the record, Osborne South shipyard to construct the DDGs was built between late 2007 and the third quarter of 2010, to a design from Aurecon, by McConnell Dowell and Built Environs, all Australian companies, under contracts with the South Australian government, on behalf of it and the. CoA. Admittedly, the shiplift was provided by Rolls Royce as a subbie, but in the same period.

The expansion of the yard for the HCF took place between, roughly, 2018 and 2022, again by Australian contractors although in that case the design came from Odense of Denmark. Most of the increase in time over the initial build was due to various complications caused by COVID. You’ll find other dates occasionally, and certainly parts of the expansion were in use before 2022, but that’s the reality of work completion. (And a few bits of associated infrastructure, like the new HMAS Encounter and an expanded car park, weren’t finished until a couple of years later, but they also started later.)

So there is absolutely no reason why Henderson could not be up and running for Mogami construction, with the work having been done by an Australian prime, by 2031 - assuming we don’t have another global pandemic and that they get going.

 

[ADMk2]

Just for clarification, it's not billions (strictly according to the English dictionary that needs to be at least plural), it lists $1-1.5 billion unapproved, on top of the approved $1.6 billion (which I assume is the money to civmec to finish the last four units).

So much of me wants to yell out its for a five inch gun upfront and a strike length VLS out back. I will try desperately to withhold this urge.

I think for $1.5 billion, that will be enough to retrofit them to their final purpose. The IIP states the function of patrol and recon. The recon perhaps needs some more systems, including a decent UAV, perhaps even an ESM kit.

Not to mention the oft talked about but not yet seen “modular mission systems” the class is supposed to have in order to conduct it’s mission though.

The adding of recon in official documentation to it’s tasks was interesting though. That sounds awfully like a military role to me… But we are told so regularly this class can’t possibly perform military roles…

 

[Todjaeger]

For the record, Osborne South shipyard to construct the DDGs was built between late 2007 and the third quarter of 2010, to a design from Aurecon, by McConnell Dowell and Built Environs, all Australian companies, under contracts with the South Australian government, on behalf of it and the. CoA. Admittedly, the shiplift was provided by Rolls Royce as a subbie, but in the same period.

The expansion of the yard for the HCF took place between, roughly, 2018 and 2022, again by Australian contractors although in that case the design came from Odense of Denmark. Most of the increase in time over the initial build was due to various complications caused by COVID. You’ll find other dates occasionally, and certainly parts of the expansion were in use before 2022, but that’s the reality of work completion. (And a few bits of associated infrastructure, like the new HMAS Encounter and an expanded car park, weren’t finished until a couple of years later, but they also started later.)

So there is absolutely no reason why Henderson could not be up and running for Mogami construction, with the work having been done by an Australian prime, by 2031 - assuming we don’t have another global pandemic and that they get going.

My take on it, is that whilst the new facility in Henderson might be ready by 2031, it could also quite easily not be ready by then, and for a variety of reasons.

The concerns revolve less around Australia being able to get the actual infrastructure of a new shipyard built, but more about all the things which need to happen in order for the construction to take place and be at a reasonable pace. Assuming (yes, I am aware of what it means to assume) no major disruptions in supplies once ground has broken, then a three year construction timeframe sounds reasonable, albeit I have and claim no expertise on such matters. However, I could a number of issues which could arise which might delay real ground breaking. These issues could run from things like legal challenges by various parties not satisfied with whatever the arrangements are, to demands for more (esp significantly more) funding to complete construction and get the yard operations. Given the likely economic impact which has still not really hit from disruptions to the global petroleum supply chain, inflation could very possibly cause costs to spike, and/or certain materials just become unavailable.

Then there is also the very real possibility that pollies could interfere or even disrupt getting a new yard in WA established and operational. Now I am not posting this to be political, but to make people aware of something that they likely have not realized or perhaps have overlooked. The current (31st) PM of Australia is Anthony Albanese who has been in office since May of 2022. I had to go back to the 25th PM, John Howard (March 1996 to December 2007) to find a PM who held the office for longer than about four years. This means that Australia has not had a PM serve for more than five years in nearly two decades. This in turn suggests that the current PM could easily be out of office within a year or two if not less, followed by a change in gov't. Following a change in gov't it could be very, very easy for a different, future gov't to make changes to plans drawn up by their predecessors but not put into action. Particularly if the plans were made at the time with an eye to advantages gained by the then sitting gov't, but which provided little or no advantage to whomever was the incoming gov't.

Or put another way, if there were to be a change in gov't before construction of the new yard really got started, would WA still have enough political influence with the new gov't to keep the plans moving forward?

There would also be the matter of getting a workforce established at the new yard. No idea how long it would realistically take to get the yard workers appropriate skilled, or how far along the yard would have to be to start recruiting and skilling the workers, but I would imagine it would take anywhere from several months to several years.

 

[ADMk2]

Sounds good, Sammy. But they must give them a decent gun. Would a 57mm with programable ammo be able to be installed?
What's the deck penetration on a 57mm as opposed to a 40mm Bofors? Would the ship have systems capable of handling it?

The 57mm Bofors Mk.3 requires minimal deck penetration, basically only ammunition hoists and below deck storage, plus ships power and networking, with no other utilities required. They can also be mounted in a non-deck penetrating installation if the user is happy to manually reload them.

But personally I think the 57mm is overkill for what we need. If more “bang” is required from what is repeatedly stated as non-combat oriented ship, then I’d rather the additional money be spent on counter-drone capabilities, perhaps a JAGM, Hellfire or APKWS derived solution as Army will employ.

However, the fact it has already been installed on this design on the Darrasulum Class should provide confidence our Arafuras can accommodate them.

Personally though, I’d be happy if the RAN invested in the 40mm Bofors Mk.4 for these and perhaps long- term as a Phalanx replacement (if they still want a gun) across the fleet as the RN seem to be doing.

In focus: the Bofors 40mm Mk 4 gun that will equip the Type 31 frigates - Navy Lookout

The Type 31 frigates will introduce two guns types new to Royal Navy service. In the first of two articles examining these weapons, we look at the Bofors 40mm Mk 4 gun. Background The RN has not had a 40mm gun in service since the Bofors 40mm L/60 Mark IX was phased out in the

www.navylookout.com

 

[StingrayOZ]

A few reports floating around have said that Government has left “scope” for more than 3x Mogamis to be built for RAN in Japan if Henderson doesn’t go as swimmingly well as they hope…

Well that isn't a good sign of the level of confidence we have in actually building things here.

However, this being the signing for the Japanese ships, there is obviously a lot more work to be done standing up local production. Often they get hung up on local content issues. Which on things like the France/subs I can see is a legitimate issue. But with the ships, its a bit more OTS, Japan has full production line, and shitting on Australia on this deal would undermine the defence arrangement. This is basically at crash build level stuff. We should move as quickly as possible, accelerate as quickly as possible. A local build running parallel while still receiving hulls from Japan at this stage is probably warranted. Not only that it could even save money and not involve any curtailing of any local builds.
But I don't run government/adf.

But personally I think the 57mm is overkill for what we need.

MOTS though. Already installed on other ships of its type. Already engineered, integrated with Saab CMS. Bolt in. Forget about. Move on. Write it off as supporting other 57mm in the region. A 57mm will probably make the ship easier to dispose of after we are done with them.

 

[MARKMILES77]

The Government's plans for an Australian flagged strategic merchant fleet is about to be realised.
Contracts are almost finalised on the first vessel, with a contract for the second not far behind.
Details on the operator and presumably the ships, should be revealed in June.
A total of 12 vessels is the current plan and they would all be available for use by the ADF in times of
crises. No details on actual types of vessels but likely at least some will be tankers.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fship-comes-in-for-anthony-albaneses-dream-of-australian-merchant-fleet%2Fnews-story%2Fa05b606ab5d00480399dc80bf6a889e6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPB-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

 

[SamB]

My take on it, is that whilst the new facility in Henderson might be ready by 2031, it could also quite easily not be ready by then, and for a variety of reasons.

The concerns revolve less around Australia being able to get the actual infrastructure of a new shipyard built, but more about all the things which need to happen in order for the construction to take place and be at a reasonable pace. Assuming (yes, I am aware of what it means to assume) no major disruptions in supplies once ground has broken, then a three year construction timeframe sounds reasonable, albeit I have and claim no expertise on such matters. However, I could a number of issues which could arise which might delay real ground breaking. These issues could run from things like legal challenges by various parties not satisfied with whatever the arrangements are, to demands for more (esp significantly more) funding to complete construction and get the yard operations. Given the likely economic impact which has still not really hit from disruptions to the global petroleum supply chain, inflation could very possibly cause costs to spike, and/or certain materials just become unavailable.

Then there is also the very real possibility that pollies could interfere or even disrupt getting a new yard in WA established and operational. Now I am not posting this to be political, but to make people aware of something that they likely have not realized or perhaps have overlooked. The current (31st) PM of Australia is Anthony Albanese who has been in office since May of 2022. I had to go back to the 25th PM, John Howard (March 1996 to December 2007) to find a PM who held the office for longer than about four years. This means that Australia has not had a PM serve for more than five years in nearly two decades. This in turn suggests that the current PM could easily be out of office within a year or two if not less, followed by a change in gov't. Following a change in gov't it could be very, very easy for a different, future gov't to make changes to plans drawn up by their predecessors but not put into action. Particularly if the plans were made at the time with an eye to advantages gained by the then sitting gov't, but which provided little or no advantage to whomever was the incoming gov't.

Or put another way, if there were to be a change in gov't before construction of the new yard really got started, would WA still have enough political influence with the new gov't to keep the plans moving forward?

There would also be the matter of getting a workforce established at the new yard. No idea how long it would realistically take to get the yard workers appropriate skilled, or how far along the yard would have to be to start recruiting and skilling the workers, but I would imagine it would take anywhere from several months to several years.

The dilemma for Australian-owned companies is reorganising air and sea traffic. Only the federal government can do that. But if the Fed-Gov can separate and work on that there are Aussie-Companies that has produced projects of equal complexity in less than 2 years during the pandemic.

 

[StevoJH]

My take on it, is that whilst the new facility in Henderson might be ready by 2031, it could also quite easily not be ready by then, and for a variety of reasons.

The concerns revolve less around Australia being able to get the actual infrastructure of a new shipyard built, but more about all the things which need to happen in order for the construction to take place and be at a reasonable pace. Assuming (yes, I am aware of what it means to assume) no major disruptions in supplies once ground has broken, then a three year construction timeframe sounds reasonable, albeit I have and claim no expertise on such matters. However, I could a number of issues which could arise which might delay real ground breaking. These issues could run from things like legal challenges by various parties not satisfied with whatever the arrangements are, to demands for more (esp significantly more) funding to complete construction and get the yard operations. Given the likely economic impact which has still not really hit from disruptions to the global petroleum supply chain, inflation could very possibly cause costs to spike, and/or certain materials just become unavailable.

Then there is also the very real possibility that pollies could interfere or even disrupt getting a new yard in WA established and operational. Now I am not posting this to be political, but to make people aware of something that they likely have not realized or perhaps have overlooked. The current (31st) PM of Australia is Anthony Albanese who has been in office since May of 2022. I had to go back to the 25th PM, John Howard (March 1996 to December 2007) to find a PM who held the office for longer than about four years. This means that Australia has not had a PM serve for more than five years in nearly two decades. This in turn suggests that the current PM could easily be out of office within a year or two if not less, followed by a change in gov't. Following a change in gov't it could be very, very easy for a different, future gov't to make changes to plans drawn up by their predecessors but not put into action. Particularly if the plans were made at the time with an eye to advantages gained by the then sitting gov't, but which provided little or no advantage to whomever was the incoming gov't.

Or put another way, if there were to be a change in gov't before construction of the new yard really got started, would WA still have enough political influence with the new gov't to keep the plans moving forward?

There would also be the matter of getting a workforce established at the new yard. No idea how long it would realistically take to get the yard workers appropriate skilled, or how far along the yard would have to be to start recruiting and skilling the workers, but I would imagine it would take anywhere from several months to several years.

Next federal election has to be on or before the 20th of May 2028 if they want to do the House of Representatives and half the senate as per usual.

I highly doubt they will call an election early unless something unusual happens. That of course doesn't mean that Albanese will survive Labor Party factional politics for that long.

But surely yard construction should be underway in the next two years. I believe the freehold for the Henderson facility is held by either the State or Federal government, so they should be ok.

With regards to workforce, theoretically Austal will be running the show, so it should be an expansion of workforce rather then starting from scratch.

 

[Reptilia]

The Government's plans for an Australian flagged strategic merchant fleet is about to be realised.
Contracts are almost finalised on the first vessel, with a contract for the second not far behind.
Details on the operator and presumably the ships, should be revealed in June.
A total of 12 vessels is the current plan and they would all be available for use by the ADF in times of
crises. No details on actual types of vessels but likely at least some will be tankers.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fship-comes-in-for-anthony-albaneses-dream-of-australian-merchant-fleet%2Fnews-story%2Fa05b606ab5d00480399dc80bf6a889e6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPB-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

Some Indian media reporting 4 bulk carriers ordered. Not too sure if it’s legit.

 

[Todjaeger]

Next federal election has to be on or before the 20th of May 2028 if they want to do the House of Representatives and half the senate as per usual.

I highly doubt they will call an election early unless something unusual happens. That of course doesn't mean that Albanese will survive Labor Party factional politics for that long.

But surely yard construction should be underway in the next two years. I believe the freehold for the Henderson facility is held by either the State or Federal government, so they should be ok.

With regards to workforce, theoretically Austal will be running the show, so it should be an expansion of workforce rather then starting from scratch.

Colour me suspicious, but I would look at who would potentially benefit politically if work or workshare currently expected to go to the Henderson area was diverted somewhere else. Having this sort if attitude is unfortunate, but IMO at least it also makes sense. After all, the Hanwha Australia facility producing the AS21 Redback IFV just happens to be located in the Corio VIC federal electorate, which just happens to be the seat of one Richard Marles.

The actual construction might be ongoing if the federal election is not held for another two years, assuming that actual construction work starts later this year or next year. OTOH depending on what delays are happening, construction might be fairly early so the GOTD might find itself wanting to 'reward' another electorate.

With Austal running the show... TBH I am not really sure how accurate it would be, to claim it would be an expansion of Austal's workforce. AFAIK at this point the only construction work Austal has done in Australia itself has been for Guardian-class patrol boats to replace the Pacific-class patrol boats provided to the Pacific Forum members. Apart from that, Australia has not produced anything like a ferry in Australia since some time in the mid-to-late 2010's. Also, IIRC when Austal was still building vessels in Australia, much of the workforce was imported on visas and then sent back home once the builds were completed. There is also the matter as well that apart from the Guardian-class patrol boats, Austal builds in aluminium not steel, so Austal might not really have much of a permanent workforce able to staff and operate a new shipyard.

 

[StevoJH]

They are up to 22 Cape class with more under construction (yes they are small and yes they are aluminium).

Theoretically they should start building the first of 8x 4000t LST-100's for the Army this year as well, which should help increase their workforce.

 

[Reptilia]

Both LCM and LCH are steel and both builds begin in the 2nd half of this year.
Before 2031, Austal should have already delivered 12 LCM(3 more in 2031 + another 3 in 2032) and 2 LCH(6 more by 2038). That’s about 3 Mogamis worth of steel fab before the first frigate build begins.

 

[SammyC]

Colour me suspicious, but I would look at who would potentially benefit politically if work or workshare currently expected to go to the Henderson area was diverted somewhere else. Having this sort if attitude is unfortunate, but IMO at least it also makes sense. After all, the Hanwha Australia facility producing the AS21 Redback IFV just happens to be located in the Corio VIC federal electorate, which just happens to be the seat of one Richard Marles.

The actual construction might be ongoing if the federal election is not held for another two years, assuming that actual construction work starts later this year or next year. OTOH depending on what delays are happening, construction might be fairly early so the GOTD might find itself wanting to 'reward' another electorate.

With Austal running the show... TBH I am not really sure how accurate it would be, to claim it would be an expansion of Austal's workforce. AFAIK at this point the only construction work Austal has done in Australia itself has been for Guardian-class patrol boats to replace the Pacific-class patrol boats provided to the Pacific Forum members. Apart from that, Australia has not produced anything like a ferry in Australia since some time in the mid-to-late 2010's. Also, IIRC when Austal was still building vessels in Australia, much of the workforce was imported on visas and then sent back home once the builds were completed. There is also the matter as well that apart from the Guardian-class patrol boats, Austal builds in aluminium not steel, so Austal might not really have much of a permanent workforce able to staff and operate a new shipyard.

I think the bigger issue is working out an arrangement with civmec. Their facility still sits in the middle of the complex, and the entire plan will struggle to work without this resolved. My information is that they are playing hardball (no surprise). They want to be adequately (handsomely) remunerated, want their workforce involvement, and want some leverage in any arrangement with Austal.

You only have to look at the current plan to build the first LCH out on the open hard stand to see how tetchy this negotiation is.

We won't see any further movement on the Henderson complex until this is sorted.

Also I remember that the Henderson design was a three year project, with I think another 18 months to run. That largelly sets the clock. Don't expect anything of substance before then.

 

[K.I.]

Just look to NASAMS to see how scaleable CAE radars are. The Arafuras have a SAAB 9lv core combat system.

At some point the 9LV CMS will transition to the ausCMS system currently being developed.

Strengthening Australia's Naval Combat Management System capability

Saab Australia and the Commonwealth of Australia have entered into contracts that extend Combat Management Systems (CMS) development under the Enterprise Partnering Agreement (EPA).

www.saab.com

An open architecture CMS across the RAN fleet will allow a tailored system for each platform which is easily upgradeable.
CEA radars rolled out across the fleet, not necessarily for the onboard systems but to increase long range coverage through the wakulda data fusion project.

Boeing Australia - Wakulda

www.boeing.com.au

Yes it sounds like an industry promo piece but we've definitely got some world class systems reaching fruition even if we're struggling to get assets into the field.

 

[iambuzzard]

The Government's plans for an Australian flagged strategic merchant fleet is about to be realised.
Contracts are almost finalised on the first vessel, with a contract for the second not far behind.
Details on the operator and presumably the ships, should be revealed in June.
A total of 12 vessels is the current plan and they would all be available for use by the ADF in times of
crises. No details on actual types of vessels but likely at least some will be tankers.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fship-comes-in-for-anthony-albaneses-dream-of-australian-merchant-fleet%2Fnews-story%2Fa05b606ab5d00480399dc80bf6a889e6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPB-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

So someone has activated their brain cells

 

[Stampede]

Its too much money for that.

If its actually money for additional units the Government will announce it very quietly and hope no one notices.

It would be a sad comedy to go from 12 to six then eventually increase the numbers.
Yes it would be a humble announcement.
Not that I would have a problem with that outcome. An additional three would a be prudent addition as we transition to our bigger fleet of majors.
Realistically I feel the funds are for upgrades to the six planned which in itself is a good thing no matter what that looks like.

Cheers S

 

[Todjaeger]

It would be a sad comedy to go from 12 to six then eventually increase the numbers.
Yes it would be a humble announcement.
Not that I would have a problem with that outcome. An additional three would a be prudent addition as we transition to our bigger fleet of majors.
Realistically I feel the funds are for upgrades to the six planned which in itself is a good thing no matter what that looks like.

Cheers S

If the numbers are used for upgrades to the current six vessels, that would increase their overall price by ~AUD$250 mil. ea. Or, once adjusting for inflation, a pricetag of some AUD$630 mil. ea that is not quite as much as a German Braunschweig-class corvette once one adjusts for inflation and currency exchange rates (Batch 2 cost ~€400 mil. in 2017 or ~€524 mil. in 2026, which converts into ~AUD$860 mil.)

The problem though is that even if another AUD$250 mil. per vessel is poured into them, it still will not make an OPV into a proper 'fighting' ship.

 

[HunterSeeker]

I'm wondering when there might be some APS jobs put out as a result of the Mogami deal, liaison/program officers with Japanese ability etc.

 

[iambuzzard]

If the numbers are used for upgrades to the current six vessels, that would increase their overall price by ~AUD$250 mil. ea. Or, once adjusting for inflation, a pricetag of some AUD$630 mil. ea that is not quite as much as a German Braunschweig-class corvette once one adjusts for inflation and currency exchange rates (Batch 2 cost ~€400 mil. in 2017 or ~€524 mil. in 2026, which converts into ~AUD$860 mil.)

The problem though is that even if another AUD$250 mil. per vessel is poured into them, it still will not make an OPV into a proper 'fighting' ship.

That German Braunschweig-class corvette is seriously armed for such a small ship. 76mm, 27mm x 2, 4 ASM, 2 RAM launchers with 42 rounds, and 34 mines with a crew of 65.
Man, that's seriously loaded for bear.
12 of them would be nice!! Lol