Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Please do not use in-appropate stereotypes and languages in the Forums.
in the midst of this, I find the Iranians in the west to be absolutely insufferable. They are still hung up to the idea of bringing this charlatan Pahlavi back as if it‘s not yet clear that this is impossible even in the wildest imagination.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Avoid using broad stereotypes. Not every Iranian in the west was a rich member of the Pahlavi regime. There have been waves of migrations out of Iran over the last nearly 50 years.
I also see that way, Houthi's now is not in comfortable situation considering Iran is not in possition to support their Allies. They have to consolidate themselves, considering their Saudi back rival now gaining momentum.
Not surprising considering the Persian communities (especially the youths) in West are decendances from Pahlevi regime elites (Military, Civil Officers and Business circles). They take a lot of money from Iran when the regime fall and basically living relative quite comfortably in Euro and US. Relative toward other political refugees from other deposed regimes.
I have meet some of them during my times in states. Most of them have superiority complex toward the rest of Iranians back home, which they consider ' uneducated peasents'. After all many of them still consider themselves as Persian Empire elites class.
personaldesas
Active Member
Personally, I find that far less insufferable than confidently explaining millions of people based on a few personal anecdotes.
It‘s not just monarchists. There does seem to be considerable support towards him at least among Iranians abroad. For example, Iranians in Germany are not particular rich but still seem to support the bombing campaign in the hope that Pahlavi wouöd descend upon Tehran and magically raise the country from ashes. I find it amusing. The best csse scenario for ordinary Iranians at this point is that the conventional Iranian government prevails. Otherwise you are looking at a range of bad options from North Korea style repression to decades of civil war.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
Trump is starting to threaten and blackmail.
Gets worse day after day.
www.aljazeera.com
www.eunews.it
Gets worse day after day.
European leaders reject military involvement in Strait of Hormuz
Pushback comes as US President Donald Trump says NATO allies should help secure key waterway amid soaring oil prices.
Iran, Kallas: "This is not the EU's war; for now, Aspides will not be extended to the Strait of Hormuz"
The EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, admits that Aspides is not the preferred option for resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Europe is playing the India card
www.eunews.it
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Guys, can we be a bit more professional about the way we are using language and stereotypes. Iranian communities in western countries have often been built up over more than a century. Multiple waves of migration including before 1979. AFAIK There is no unified central command for Iranian diaspora.
This is not a political forum. Can we stick to defence topics.
This is not a political forum. Can we stick to defence topics.
The realistic part is that a deployment to the middle east is an extremely difficult thing to support for most western navies. Europe, is still quite far from the middle east, and deploying to the gulf would require a long transit, and forces could perhaps be cut off if the conflict goes more global.
At home its almost impossible to support deployments of military equipment because of the way the war was started and the questionable/unclear aims of the war.
Many navies are currently focusing on upgrades. With increase defence spending often going to upgrading existing capability, that means existing capable has to be taken out of service to be upgraded.
A terrible time to start a war.
SinisterMinister
Member
If would give him far less than he has currently, actually. For one thing, he has semi-functional control over Iranian oil already. Every tanker that leaves with Iranian oil could easily be sunk or seized by the US navy. But doing so would exacerbate the oil supply crisis, because Iran would immediately stop sending them.
So what does Kharg do that seizing tankers would not? Nothing. At least by taking tankers they would get some physical oil out of it. Seizing Kharg gives them a bunch of Marines on an exposed rock within range of a plethora of Iranian munitions.
Oh and not to mention, if you want those amphibious ships carrying the Marines to, you know, land them on Kharg, they're going to have to go ... through the Strait of Hormuz. Uh oh
Only option is to land them in Oman and then stage a helicopter operation to land them on Kharg. But stage from where? All US bases in the region are under fire.
The whole thing is nonsense
I wouldn't describe it is very difficult as we have seen similar deployments take place in the Red Sea such as CTF 153, and United States Ops Prosperity Guardian in 2023 and EU's contribution via Ops Aspides / EUNAVFOR.
But at a larger scale, against a nominally more capable and motivated opponent with much higher threat levels and will take far longer to to assemble and sustain.
There is simply no political desire to get involved and rightly so.
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Unfortunately the rest of the world is dependant on oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz. The choice might be to see world economy destroyed or send warships.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I doubt adding warships would solve the problem. Either Iran loses the ability to produce strike munitions or boots on the ground to totally eliminate the theocracy. Neither seems likely. Trump has his new oil supply in Venezuela which could provide large amounts but no oil company wants to invest billions there because of security concerns. Even if they did, this is a long term solution. Trump created this $hitshow and much of the world (including allies) are turned off on America, something that will take years to fix.
In theory enough warships could shoot down inbounds and allow civilian ships to pass safely. In theory.... in reality the US hasn't been able to prevent it's bases from getting hit, which raises questions about just how much can be done to protect ships.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Agree, and the other issue is how long can expensive munitions (long production times) be utilized to destroy cheap drones assuming Iran can still produce them in quantity? Would be interesting to know how Ukraine could help out here....guessing Ukraine is getting some foreign investment dollars to expand their various anti-drone munitions along with some R&D money. The other challenge is mines.
For drones, ships based AAA could help. What really sticks out to me is that US facilities don't have drone defense teams at all, hence the use of more expensive assets. It's partially an organizational aspect.
personaldesas
Active Member
I mean, how could they possibly have known that Iran would resort to drones?
To add to that problom is also the rar earths issue. Planes parts for planes radars and missiles are all (not all missiles but many) dependent on rare earths. Not insurmountable of a problom but still at scale it's a problom.
Also not talked about much but I imagine there is some logistical issues with both fuel and weapon storage with so many bases under attack. The refiling for ships I know for a fact has been cutting down on destroyer availably as they spend a not inconsiderate amount of there time now travling to and from fueling locations farther out since the 5th fleet assets and others are no longer available. Again issues the u.s can deal with but still all these things do add up. Especially flying in the majority of supplies those are some serious hours the u.s is puting on well it's entire air force. I also wonder about mantiance with so many air bases out of action. Would be interesting to see if it's causing delays
I mean, how could they possibly have known that Iran would resort to drones?
Truly shocking. Apparently we're also only now learning that Iran is located right next to a major shipping artery chokepoint where it has the ability to disrupt global trade. This is definitely an unprecedented state of affairs. I can only wonder how Iran managed to quietly move their entire landmass to this crucial position without anyone noticing.
Hoover
Active Member
No. It must be a lie, because Putin told Witkoff that Russia doesn´t do that...