The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Other interesting bits.

Russian depth-charge MLRS destroyed. It's been a while since we've seen these systems, but there were more than a couple put togther.

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vk.com

Ukrainian forces have received unknown quantities of the new Tempest SAM, that uses Hellfire LongBow missiles. If the pattern holds, Ukraine will receive a homeopathic quantity of these systems as "aid" but really to test them in real battlefield conditions, with no large scale follow-up deliveries.

Осведомитель

Ресурсы противника публикуют первые кадры работы тайно переданного ЗРК «Tempest» с ракетами AGM-114L «Longbow». ЗРК «Tempest» представляет из себя мобильный противовоздушный комплекс на базе багги, оснащённого РЛС RADA RPS‑42 и двумя пусковыми для ракет AGM-114L «Longbow». Сам комплекс был...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Репортаж об американском ЗРК Tempest с ракетами AGM-114L Hellfire LongBow на вооружении одного из подразделений воздушного командования «Центр» ВС Украины. Комплекс используется для уничтожения дронов-камикадзе типа «Герань-2». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Фотографии американского ЗРК Tempest с ракетами AGM-114L Hellfire LongBow на территории Украины, опубликованные одним из украинских волонтёров. На момент фото экипажи комплексов проходили слаживание. Вчера появились первые кадры его боевого применения. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Ещё один снимок с минимум двумя американскими ЗРК Tempest во время подготовки их к транспортировке на трале на территорию Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Japan has handed over a batch of Toyota HMVs to Ukraine. Iirc these vehicles were also previously seen in Russian service, potentially sourced through civilian markets or second hand somehow.

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A Ukrainian BMP-1TS with dreadlock armor. This is a clear sign that neither side has a better solution at this time, and both are defaulting to this. We've seen this kind of convergent evolution in drone warfare previously.

Военный Осведомитель

Украинская БМП-1ТС с антидроновой защитой типа «дикобраз». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A good look at Ukraine's 96th SAM Bde using NASAMS.

Осведомитель

Еще одна демонстрация возможностей упрощённой логистики и транспортировки на примере грузового автомобиля с системой мультилифт и стационарной пусковой установки ЗРК «Nasams» 96-й зенитно-ракетной бригады ВСУ. К примеру, аналогичную комбинацию могли представлять из себя Камаз/Урал и...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Репортаж о ЗРК NASAMS на вооружении 96-й ЗРБр воздушных сил Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine's 28th National Guard Rgt on the streets of Pripyat'.

Военный Осведомитель

Монолитовцы украинские нацгвардейцы из 28-го Чернобыльского полка и их БТР-70 с антидроновым мангалом на улицах Припяти. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine's 50th Arty Bde with a new variant of the Bogdana howitzer on a Tatra truck chassis and Ukraine's 147th Arty Bde with Caesar howitzers.

Осведомитель

Новая версия колесной 155-мм САУ 2С22 «Богдана» на шасси Tatra Force 8x8 с бронированной кабиной от чешской компании «Tatra Defence Vehicle» на вооружении свежесформированной 50-й отдельной артиллерийской бригады ВСУ. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

155-мм САУ «Богдана» на новом шасси – Tatra Force 8x8 – на вооружении 50-й оабр ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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Ukraine's 59th UAV Bde with a Bulava loitering munition, a Lancet analogue at least externally.

Военный Осведомитель

Украинский аналог "Ланцета", дрон-камикадзе "Булава" на вооружении 59-й отдельной штурмовой бригады Сил беспилотных систем Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A sighting of a rare Ukrainian F-16BM.

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Весьма интересный снимок, на котором впервые запечатлен двухместный F-16BM на вооружении ВВСУ. Осведомитель

t.me

An ex-Afghan Mi-17V5 in Ukrainian service.

bmpd

Бывший афганский Ми-17-В5 (производства КВЗ) в рядах армейской авиации ВСУ. Наши дни. Из интересного (что мы видим на фото), на вертолете было доустановлено: ▪️Противоракетный комплекс обороны AMPS (Airborne Missile Protection System), виден УФ-датчик AN-AAR-60 от немецкой компании Hensoldt...

t.me

Allegedly an ex-Azeri MiG-29 in Ukrainian colors. Rumors continue to circulate that some are being handed over.

Военный Осведомитель

Очередное фото бывшего азербайджанского МиГ-29 в характерном камуфляже на вооружении ВС Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A Ukrainian Mirage fighter with MICA AAMs. I think it's our first sighting of the missiles, though delivery was confirmed some time ago.

Военный Осведомитель

В номенклатуре вооружения истребителей Mirage 2000-5F ВС Украины замечена ракета класса «воздух-воздух» MICA французского производства. О планах поставки данных ракет Украине официально сообщалось ещё в марте прошлого года. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

For a while Ukraine's Baba Yaga drones were without a relevant Russian parallel, but apparently the new Mangas drone is designed to fill that role. They seem to be from the same team responsible for the Courier UGV, and are already on the front lines. In the third link you can see the composite drones Russian forces have been using in place of a heavier drone like the Baba Yaga or the new Mangas.

Colonelcassad

Доброе утро. Тяжелые гексакоптеры "Мангас" перед отправкой на фронт. Отзывы от фронтовых операторов хорошие. Поддержать актуальный сбор для парней можно по этой ссылке: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/194140

t.me

Colonelcassad

Доброе утро. Тяжелые гексакоптеры "Мангас" перед отправкой на фронт. Отзывы от фронтовых операторов хорошие. Поддержать актуальный сбор для парней можно по этой ссылке: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/194516

t.me

Осведомитель

Российские FPV-франкенштейны, которые наши бойцы вынуждены клепать на фоне отсутствия в войсках альтернативы украинских тяжёлых беспилотников типа «Баба Яга». Осведомитель

t.me

Russia continues the use of Shaheds for minelaying.

Colonelcassad

«Герани» теперь еще и минируют местность Украинские паблики сообщают, что дальнобойные дроны «Герань», вдобавок ко всему, научились ставить минные заграждения. По информации противника, БПЛА минируют как отдельные участки местности, так и зоны рядом с местом своего падения. Расчет делается на...

t.me

More and more Molniya drones with Starlink terminals are showing up.

Военный Осведомитель

Перехват дрона-камикадзе "Молния-2" с установленным терминалом Starlink. За последнее время российских дронов со "Старлинками" на борту фиксируется все больше и больше, как в разведывательном, так и ударном вариантах, что значительно расширяет боевые возможности отечественной беспилотной...

t.me

Russian sources claim the Duke Vandal drone has been upgrade to a range of 50-60kms. A reminder this drone is wire-guided.

Осведомитель

Согласно словам генерального директора научно-производственного центра «Ушкуйник» Алексея Чадаева, знаменитый оптоволоконный FPV-дрон «Князь Вандал Новгородский» прошел глубокую модернизацию, в результате которой за счет новой катушки оптоволокна дальность дрона была увеличена до 50-60 км, а...

t.me

A Russian Courier UGV creating an improvised crossing.

Военный Осведомитель

Работа НРТК "Курьер" по наведению насыпной переправы через небольшую водную преграду. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian T-72B3M with dreadlock armor from the 116th Special Purpose National Guard Bde.

Dambiev

Танк Т-72Б3М 116-й отдельной бригады особого назначения Росгвардии. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Another look at the new LPD-2000 anti-drone turret in Russian service. It uses a combination of EO, radar, and laser rangefinding.

Осведомитель

Автоматизированная турель ЛПД-2000 в составе мобильной огневой группы с системой целеуказания «Катран», включающая в себя РЛС, лазерный целеуказатель, а также ОЭС с системой поиска и сопровождения воздушных целей. Осведомитель

t.me

We've seen some of the strangest adaptation in this war, but I think this has them all beat. Here's Starlink on a horse. Russian military. I have no idea what the purpose is. It's not like you can control a horse via starlink. And it looks like it's set up for use, not just transport. And it's not just one...

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Военный Осведомитель

FPV-лошадь на "Старлинке". Теперь вы видели почти все. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Еще лошадей со Starlink вам. Честно говоря, просто теряемся в догадках касательно причин и необходимости подобного диковатого решения. Видео: @garmaev_alexander Военный Осведомитель

t.me

General Sukhrab Akhmedov, known for failed attacks on Ugledar and later Pokrovsk has been removed from command. He has for quite time held the reputation of one of Russia's worst generals in this war. It's not clear what will happen with him, this isn't the first time he was removed from command.

Военный Осведомитель

Как сообщается, с должности вновь снят генерал-лейтенант Сухраб Ахмедов, который в июле 2025 года получил звание Героя России. По известной информации, Ахмедов занимал кресло заместителя главнокомандующего военно-морским флотом по береговым и сухопутным войскам. Вероятно, что причиной...

t.me

Russia is continuing expansion of drone infrastructure at Donetsk airport.

AMK Mapping

New high-resolution satellite imagery of Donetsk International Airport shows continued expansion of Russia's Geran-2 drone launch point there. 3 new static launch pads have been installed in the last month, bringing the total number of launchers there to 7. The number of open garages for...

t.me

Damage to Ukraine's power grid has forced Ukraine to switch to using older diesel locomotives as the track lines are no longer electrified.

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vk.com

Ukraine has begun deploying portable generators in Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk due to longer power outages.

Военный Осведомитель

ГСЧС Украины начала установку генераторов для аварийного электроснабжения жилых домов в Киеве и Днепропетровске. Используются в том числе генераторы, ранее переданные из Республики Корея. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ruins of Ugledar, winter '25-'26. Presumably the cleand up the roads.

AMK Mapping

Vuhledar in 2026. Population: 25 The city is now around 50 km behind the frontline.

t.me

Russian BARS-Crimea unit doing securiy checks on a road near Simferopol'. I think this is a training exercise.

Военный Осведомитель

Досмотр автотранспорта бойцами добровольческого подразделения «БАРС-Крым» на дороге в Симферополе. Часть 1. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Досмотр автотранспорта бойцами добровольческого подразделения «БАРС-Крым» на дороге в Симферополе. Часть 2. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

 

[rsemmes]

You mentioned the Monokhrom (another one I didn't know) and now...

Russian Su-57 appeared with an S-71 attack drone under its wing

The debut image of a prototype Russian attack drone, designed by the Sukhoi company for integration with the fifth-generation Su-57 fighters, has been released.

bulgarianmilitary.com

"Additionally, the Sukhoi company has established its own production line for control and guidance systems to reduce dependency on external component suppliers. This level of innovation and self-sufficiency is setting new benchmarks in the defense industry."
To be honest, it sounds like selling a product, but yes, wars are great for development.

 

[rsemmes]

Sure, Russia has very little capacity to build aircrafts. The destroyed bombers are irreplaceable.

Russia’s Tu-95 Bomber Fleet Will Never Recover From Ukraine’s Latest Drone Attack: How Can the Air Force Respond?

Following Ukrainian forces’ launch of a large highly successful large scale drone attack on multiple Russian airbases across the country’s northern and western

militarywatchmagazine.com

.

The drone attack via trucks that delivered the drones took out 20% of the bomber fleet.

Each destroyed bomber is good news for Europe.

I think its a pretty new tactic to hire private trucks to deliver woord and have the drones hidden under the canvas, let the trucks drive far into the enemy terretory and then strike. Was a master act

Then, the VC, transporting rockets through the jungle, was the greatest military genius; like every terrorist group carrying out or planning an attack against an airbase/base/airport with one-shot mortars.

Actually no, it only shows a lack of means (Oreshnik) to launch a more powerful attack. Military improvisation (like cop-cages) are an ancient tradition; a necessity, not a show of mastery.

 

[vikingatespam]

So, I don't answer questions (What % is “virtually none”? Is for a friend) but, I answer “lacking in clarity, context and content”, whataboutisms and propaganda; sorry, Russian propaganda.

Why dont we start with one the last ones I asked, in post 13473:

start quote--
stop trying to be coy, and just come out and say it. The entire context of your original statement is designed to imply UKR is fighting against its own will, pushed along by shadowy conspiracies.

If you feel differently, here is your chance to state for the record, clearly:

Do you, rsemmes, believe that UKR is fighting RU of its own accord, and is not being forced to do so by western powers ?

[ ] YES
[ ] NO
end quote---

Would you be so kind to answer ?

As an anecdote or reference, Czechoslovakia 1938 is Poland taking Teschen in 1938 and how respectful we, western democracies, are of International Law.
You see Czechoslovakia but not Teschen?

That has entirely no relevance to the point at hand - that UKR disarming according to RU demands is simply a replay of Czech.1938 in that Germany, after using political means to disarm Czech., the rolled over the rump state soon thereafter. "International law" is not part of that thread.

 

[vikingatespam]

Do you have a source for the million soldiers fallen number? I'm assuming fallen means KIA.

Let us all recall that "casualties" is KIA + WIA + missing. Total casualties is likely in the 1.25M range. According to QJM methodology, for 20th century conflicts, for every 1 KIA there are ~4 WIA. Of the WIA, about 25% are mustered out of the military due to permanent wounds.

RU having total permanent losses of ~500,000 is entirely prossible.

We shall all have to wait for the dust to settle to see who is correct.

 

[vikingatespam]

Time will tell. Im all for Russia collapsing and support that we as Europeans continue that path.

Be careful what you wish for. An actual "collapse" of the RU state could end up in a civil war with 2 nuclear armed powers. The economic ramifications alone would hit the entire globe, and the refugee situation would be a disaster.

 

[vikingatespam]

It's a very believable figure. 4 per month is 48 planes per year. They're putting out ~12-18 Su-34s, ~12-18 Su-35S, some quantity of Su-30SM2, some quantity of Su-57, and some quantity of Yak-130. Pre-war Russia had years where they put out much more than that. And no, the 4 per month figure does not include helos. Russian helicopter production in some years was over 300 units, and is certainly much higher then 4 per month when combined with jets. Aircraft production is the one area where Russian output outpaces losses confidently.

A quick and dirty AI search said 24 combat plane deliveries in 2024, which is roughly in line with other estimates I have read, although does not constitute a detailed examination into the question.

 

[Feanor]

A quick and dirty AI search said 24 combat plane deliveries in 2024, which is roughly in line with other estimates I have read, although does not constitute a detailed examination into the question.

I don't think this is correct. I think we're looking at 14+ of Su-34 and Su-35 each. Assuming some quantity of Su-30SM, Su-35S, and Su-57, they should be well above 24. In fact 24 jets delivered would be a very low number. Typically Russia can pump out 30+ jets at KnAAPO and IAPO each, and 12+ at NAPO. Peak years have seen Russian combat jet deliveries close to 100 aircraft. 48 is well below peak, and would make sense given financial constraints, priorities, and technical difficulties due to sanctions.

Let us all recall that "casualties" is KIA + WIA + missing. Total casualties is likely in the 1.25M range. According to QJM methodology, for 20th century conflicts, for every 1 KIA there are ~4 WIA. Of the WIA, about 25% are mustered out of the military due to permanent wounds.

RU having total permanent losses of ~500,000 is entirely prossible.

We shall all have to wait for the dust to settle to see who is correct.

Fallen typically refers to someone killed in battle, not just casualty. If the claim was 1.2M Russian net casualties, I wouldn't call it wrong. It's certainly not a confirmed figure, but who knows if we will ever get one. It's well within the realm of possibility, and in my opinion not an unreasonable estimate.

 

[rsemmes]

Why dont we start with one the last ones I asked, in post 13473:

start quote--
stop trying to be coy, and just come out and say it. The entire context of your original statement is designed to imply UKR is fighting against its own will, pushed along by shadowy conspiracies.

If you feel differently, here is your chance to state for the record, clearly:

Do you, rsemmes, believe that UKR is fighting RU of its own accord, and is not being forced to do so by western powers ?

[ ] YES
[ ] NO
end quote---

Would you be so kind to answer ?



That has entirely no relevance to the point at hand - that UKR disarming according to RU demands is simply a replay of Czech.1938 in that Germany, after using political means to disarm Czech., the rolled over the rump state soon thereafter. "International law" is not part of that thread.

Neither reality nor History are going to be moved by what you want (the number or Russian aircraft built every year), like (the number of Ukrainian casualties or the number of casualties) or believe. What anyone believes being the most irrelevant part of the whole lot.
“The entire context of your original statement is designed to imply UKR is fighting against its own will, pushed along by shadowy conspiracies.” May I remind you that English is not my first language? Thanks for the compliment, anyway, about my mastery of that language. On the other hand, like with “forced to”, you are just inventing it.
Would you be so kind as to show us who, besides you, posted “forced to”, when and where? That is not in any EU statement.
By Poland and Germany. You can use History to emphasize your point, but you cannot delete the rest of it; the parts that you don't like. Obviously, you can, but that will only add to the want-like-believe side of things; not everyone is going to be happy with that.

The only positive point that I see (hardly) in you post is that in Istanbul, in 2022,
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf
Russia's position was 85.000, Ukraine's 250.000, but there was no peace agreement, so we don't know about any final number nor about what intervention by what guarantors.
The recent US plan mentioned 600.000, European counter-proposal 800.000.
https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...er-proposal-us-ukraine-peace-plan-2025-11-23/
After that counter-proposal, Ukraine is taking those 800.000. Again, we/western Europe want Ukraine “in the fight”, but it seems that we don't want a "rump" Ukraine.

Let's go for a different fantasy.
In ten years, Poland abandons the EU (I never imagined the UK doing that), Poland decides that it wants to be Great Again and invades Ukraine to recover Lwów. I don't know what leader is going to be in power in Poland in ten years, but I do trust that a British leader will invade foreign countries. Maybe that weak Ukraine is not such a bad idea considering the interests of every other country.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Be careful what you wish for. An actual "collapse" of the RU state could end up in a civil war with 2 nuclear armed powers. The economic ramifications alone would hit the entire globe, and the refugee situation would be a disaster.

Still better than what we have now. It would erase one of the most negative forces on the planet. Siberia can be settled by China, the russian rump state could be contained.

We need to act more bold. Imagine if our ancestors would have said: Ohhh to collapse the Ottoman Empire could have negative effects. In my opinion that dance around consequences is the main reason we are where we are now. We allow to let conflicts smolder for eternity.

 

[personaldesas]

Coming back to this thread after a few weeks, I see it's still mainly rsemmes rage baiting people