Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[Stampede]

*looks around*

Huh - the only Ghost Shark cynic here. Ah well, it'll be interesting to see.

Sorry - but I think it's an over-egged R&D project by a questionable company with some very interesting Australian senior execs. I'm not convinced it has a feasible CONOPS, nor is cost effective. There is a huge difference between a capability and an experiment. I do, however, think the secrecy around undersea warfare works to Australia's disadvantage here, as no-one can ask pertinent questions like they can of other Defence projects....

Re Ghost shark, I’m not sure if I’m a cynic, but I am very guarded re expectations.
Reality is I / we know bugger all about its capabilities or intended capabilities.
It’s just a bloody big mystery.

We do know however that the unmanned space is a thing across land , air and the maritime surface space.

As for the underwater realm, it’s certainly getting investment and the RAN appears to be very keen that it does stuff!

What that stuff looks like is speculative.

I certainly don’t think traditional manned submarines are redundant any time soon.

Cheers S

 

[ADMk2]

*looks around*

Huh - the only Ghost Shark cynic here. Ah well, it'll be interesting to see.

Sorry - but I think it's an over-egged R&D project by a questionable company with some very interesting Australian senior execs. I'm not convinced it has a feasible CONOPS, nor is cost effective. There is a huge difference between a capability and an experiment. I do, however, think the secrecy around undersea warfare works to Australia's disadvantage here, as no-one can ask pertinent questions like they can of other Defence projects....

Defence and the Minister can always take the current British approach.

Refuse to answer anything except pre-submitted and approved written questions…

 

[Reptilia]

Second OPV accepted by Defence.

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/releases/2025-09-12/second-offshore-patrol-vessel-accepted

Pilbara launched in October according to Civmec.


9th of 10 Evolved Cape class also delivered.

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/releases/2025-09-10/ninth-evolved-cape-class-patrol-boat-delivered

 

[Reptilia]

I’m guessing the aim is to deliver the rest of OPVs to defence before the first LCH is scheduled to be delivered in late 2028.

(?)
Arafura > July 2025
Eyre > September 2025
Pilbara > 2026
Gippsland > 2027
Illawarra > 2027
Carpentaria > 2028
LCH 1 > 2028
Etc

 

[SammyC]

The secrecy aspect concerns me as well. I can understand why somethings are kept secret but when just about everything is secret it does have me wondering. The price tag of $1.7 billion is chump change in the world of military expenditure and I suspect what we are getting isn't quite the bleeding edge technology the defence minister is claiming. It is probably no more than just a very standard, albiet quite large, submersible that has plenty of space inside for all sorts of kit.

Having said that I do believe that drones should be cheap and not overdesigned. Maybe this is Anduril's secret to success and that isn't such a bad thing. Probably the Ghost Shark is enough to keep some Chinese military planners sitting up late at night which is probably worth the investment.

I understand the secrecy. Most of the stuff fitted in the Collins will never be public information. There is a lot of specialised EW gear fitted to the ANZACs and Hobarts that even the general crew don't know about.

To your point there would be a fair amount of the ghost shark that is likey very standard. Its battery electric system is probably nothing revolutionary. Compact passive/active sonar systems are readily available. The payload bay would also be nothing fancy (it's a box with racks). I would have thought and expected that all the hardware is military off the shelf. This is a good thing.

The ghost bat is much the same, the physical airframe is standard technology.

The smarts are the control system. They spent $100m developing this for the ghost shark prototypes, and from Sen Marles briefing, some of the $1.7B is for continued improvement of the software.

Marles distinctly said dozens (plural), so there will be at least 25 hulls. That's a minimum five a year for five years. Should allow for multiple iterations as in service experience increases and hardware/software improves. The last ones should be significantly more advanced than the earlier ones.

Marles also clearly said this is the first tranche, so this should be an ongoing program beyond the five years. It's probably easy to accelerate production to double or tripple within the same factory.

I imagine Anduril will push hard to expand the ecosystem to their Copperheads and Sea Sentries and integrate with the ghost shark. I will give them credit, I was (and still am to some degree) an Andruil sceptic, but they have delived a firm contract and have production ready.

They are making Boeing's Orca look a bit embarasing.

In regards to strike, I would have thought a Mk48 torpedo would be the natural fit, however we don't have a big enough inventory of these for a large fleet of drones.The production of these is like 50-100 per year globally, so it is never going to match supply with a large drone fleet. I can see Andruil might get some interest in the copperhead as a result. I imagine it is not as good as a Mk48, but maybe it doesn't need to be. A drone platform can be a lot more agressive in its positioning and risk than a crewed vessel.

 

[StingrayOZ]

In regards to strike, I would have thought a Mk48 torpedo would be the natural fit, however we don't have a big enough inventory of these for a large fleet of drones.The production of these is like 50-100 per year globally, so it is never going to match supply with a large drone fleet. I can see Andruil might get some interest in the copperhead as a result. I imagine it is not as good as a Mk48, but maybe it doesn't need to be. A drone platform can be a lot more agressive in its positioning and risk than a crewed vessel.

I think its more natural a Mu90 or mk54.
Ghostshark is only about 12m long, and a mk48 is about 6m and weighs over 1.5t. The physics of launching a munition like that from such a small platform are significant.

I don't think they are in any rush to arms these. These are more useful as sensor platforms. Munitions can be called in from anywhere, particularly from aviation platforms, which are fairly immune to sub threats.

 

[Going Boeing]

I think its more natural a Mu90 or mk54.
Ghostshark is only about 12m long, and a mk48 is about 6m and weighs over 1.5t. The physics of launching a munition like that from such a small platform are significant.

I read that the Ghost Shark is designed to be modular with the ability to have different sized payload bays that can be used depending on the task. The following quote from this article gives an indication:

“We don’t have big masts running down the backbone of our vehicle that a lot of other designs do that then preclude the ability for the payloads to come out in different directions… of the payload module itself,” Dr. Shane Arnott, Senior Vice President for Engineering at Anduril and the company’s maritime lead, told The War Zone in an interview back in August. “So we have… in effect, unlimited flexibility in this design, just the way that we’ve configured the vehicle and the payload bay itself could be almost anything within a size configuration that you can dream up. We haven’t encountered crazy idea yet from a customer that … we can’t fit.”

 

[ADMk2]

I think its more natural a Mu90 or mk54.
Ghostshark is only about 12m long, and a mk48 is about 6m and weighs over 1.5t. The physics of launching a munition like that from such a small platform are significant.

I don't think they are in any rush to arms these. These are more useful as sensor platforms. Munitions can be called in from anywhere, particularly from aviation platforms, which are fairly immune to sub threats.

I don’t think these are using any form of legacy munition actually and if you listen to what defence is actually saying, strike from these actual platforms (not as an enabler but as a shooter) is coming from day dot.

Nowhere, has anyone said that strike from these craft is limited to maritime strike delivered by a legacy torpedo design. I can well imagine these sitting in a littoral environment, deploying Anduril sourced, lattice AI enabled cruise missiles or loitering munition designs.

Such is routinely aluded to without being spoken outright...

Given what we have seen in recent years with ADF “strike” missile / guided weapon purchases:

ARMY:

GMLRS
GMLRS-ER
ATACMS
PrSM
SPIKE-LR
JAVELIN -F
Switchblade 300 Block 20
AIM-9X Block II
AMRAAM C7/8

RAAF:

SDB 1
SDB II
JSM
JASSM-ER
LRASM
HARM-B
AARGM
AARGM-ER
AIM-120D3
AIM-9X Block II

RAN:

ESSM Block II
SM-2 Block IIIC
SM-6 Block IA (“maybe Block IB as well)
NSM
Tactical Tomahawk

The old paradigm of “limiting” the number and types of guided weapon systems in ADF service to reduce sustainment, training and logistical costs seems to have gone out the window.

There are also more on the way that we are aware of:

NSM / more PRsM for Army’s land based maritime strike capability.
A Hellfire replacement / addition for Army / RAN helicopters.
Short range guided munitions for land forces.
An armed aerial drone capability for at least Army but quite possibly RAN as well.
Hypersonic cruise missile for RAAF (HACM initially) and likely a similar weapon for RAN in years to come.

Accordingly, the outlier in such a program at present is the RAN which with the exception of Tomahawk and SM-6 has basically only opted for “like for like” replacement of weapon systems - at least in the unclassified world.

Seeing naval “strike” being added to by autonomous systems with a mix of new generation cruise and loitering weapons? Seems to be just what “the Dr“ ordered in this day and age…

 

[MARKMILES77]

I read that the Ghost Shark is designed to be modular with the ability to have different sized payload bays that can be used depending on the task. The following quote from this article gives an indication:

“We don’t have big masts running down the backbone of our vehicle that a lot of other designs do that then preclude the ability for the payloads to come out in different directions… of the payload module itself,” Dr. Shane Arnott, Senior Vice President for Engineering at Anduril and the company’s maritime lead, told The War Zone in an interview back in August. “So we have… in effect, unlimited flexibility in this design, just the way that we’ve configured the vehicle and the payload bay itself could be almost anything within a size configuration that you can dream up. We haven’t encountered crazy idea yet from a customer that … we can’t fit.”

The commercial cousin of GhostShark has three different options for the length of the mission bay.
Have not heard any mention of whether this is the same for GhostShark.

Anduril

Transforming US & allied military capabilities with advanced technology.

www.anduril.com

 

[SammyC]

PM boosts defence budget by up to $25b before US visit

Sorry, it's from the AFR and paywalled, but by Phillip Coorey who is a good political reporter.

Aparently a big announcement is coming up on the Henderson precinct, possibly tomorrow, but definitely before the PM goes to the UN.

$25 billion into the facility over the next decade. $12 billion will be the front component and this is likely to be above the IIP program (so additional spending).

All part of demonstrating serious intent on defence spending prior to meeting Trump.

Look forward to the details.

 

[DDG38]

Non paywalled version on the Guardian - $12bn downpayment on WA shipyard to help prepare it for Aukus submarine era

 

[hauritz]

PM boosts defence budget by up to $25b before US visit

Sorry, it's from the AFR and paywalled, but by Phillip Coorey who is a good political reporter.

Aparently a big announcement is coming up on the Henderson precinct, possibly tomorrow, but definitely before the PM goes to the UN.

$25 billion into the facility over the next decade. $12 billion will be the front component and this is likely to be above the IIP program (so additional spending).

All part of demonstrating serious intent on defence spending prior to meeting Trump.

Look forward to the details.

Another non paywalled link.

Also indicates that Marles has had private assurances from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the Virginia deal would go though.

Albanese to unveil $12 billion AUKUS defence facility expansion

The Albanese government will spend $12 billion on building a submarine and naval shipbuilding facility south of Perth under AUKUS, as doubts linger over the agreement's future.

www.abc.net.au

 

[MARKMILES77]

"When peoples beliefs are challenged by science, many people prefer to hold onto their beliefs and discredit the scientists."

Billion-dollar coffins? New technology could make oceans transparent and Aukus submarines vulnerable

Quantum sensing, satellite tracking and AI are part of an accelerating arms race in detection that should prompt a re-evaluation of Australia’s defence strategy

www.theguardian.com

 

[hauritz]

"When peoples beliefs are challenged by science, many people prefer to hold onto their beliefs and discredit the scientists."

Billion-dollar coffins? New technology could make oceans transparent and Aukus submarines vulnerable

Quantum sensing, satellite tracking and AI are part of an accelerating arms race in detection that should prompt a re-evaluation of Australia’s defence strategy

www.theguardian.com

Having seen how far AI and drone technology has come in the last 25 years I wouldn't be willing to make any predictions as to what the next 25 may bring. Yes it is a $368 billion gamble. At this stage I am about 50/50 that the AUKUS SSNs might come down the slipway and go straight into a maritime museum. Time will tell.

 

[ADMk2]

Having seen how far AI and drone technology has come in the last 25 years I wouldn't be willing to make any predictions as to what the next 25 may bring. Yes it is a $368 billion gamble. At this stage I am about 50/50 that the AUKUS SSNs might come down the slipway and go straight into a maritime museum. Time will tell.

An interesting bit of info is that approximately 1/3rd of that $368B is contingency…

Yet people still call them “$368B” subs…

 

[Reptilia]

The announcement today means very little, the Henderson precinct plans are not submitted until Q1 2026.
The only contracts to be signed are the LCM this 1/4 and LCH at the end of the year. Construction for both doesn’t begin until next year.

 

[Bob53]

Having seen how far AI and drone technology has come in the last 25 years I wouldn't be willing to make any predictions as to what the next 25 may bring. Yes it is a $368 billion gamble. At this stage I am about 50/50 that the AUKUS SSNs might come down the slipway and go straight into a maritime museum. Time will tell.

There’s nothing in that seems beyond the realms of reality. China is leading or close to the front on AI and Quantum computing. It doesnt seem that far fetched that sensors will evolve over the next 25 years along with computing power to the point that they have the ability to process 10x the amount of information as now. will it happen..maybe but I wouldn’t disregard this outright. looks at the developments that have taken place since 2000 which is 25 years ago.

 

[SammyC]

The announcement today means very little, the Henderson precinct plans are not submitted until Q1 2026.
The only contracts to be signed are the LCM this 1/4 and LCH at the end of the year. Construction for both doesn’t begin until next year.

Yea, other than a funding commitment there was absolutely no detail. It felt like a rushed announcement that was out of sequence.

 

[Reptilia]

Yea, other than a funding commitment there was absolutely no detail. It felt like a rushed announcement that was out of sequence.

All to please the U.S before meeting Trump.

 

[Stampede]

Having seen how far AI and drone technology has come in the last 25 years I wouldn't be willing to make any predictions as to what the next 25 may bring. Yes it is a $368 billion gamble. At this stage I am about 50/50 that the AUKUS SSNs might come down the slipway and go straight into a maritime museum. Time will tell.

Cannot speak for AI, but the worlds navy’s are building submarines at speed,
Does that suggest they have a future ?
Conventional and nuclear powered.

As for RAN SSN , I’m still sceptical.
Certainly difficult to believe with so much US human and capital investment with the Virginia class for oz that it will actually be an Australian sovereign capability when the initial vessels join the fleet in the 30s

Is that a good or bad thing.
Well I guess that depends on the political dynamics in the future.

Cheers S