The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I guess, stability in Crimea is not a priority.

Sir Keir Starmer has said stability in the Middle East is "a priority" following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, as the world has reacted to the attack.
The prime minister also called on Iran to "return to the negotiating table" to "reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis".

Maybe it is more difficult to "urge" Zelenski to negotiate.
What level of difficulty would you assign to a Russian mafia chief versus an Iranian Shite religious wacko?
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I guess, stability in Crimea is not a priority.

Sir Keir Starmer has said stability in the Middle East is "a priority" following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, as the world has reacted to the attack.
The prime minister also called on Iran to "return to the negotiating table" to "reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis".

Maybe it is more difficult to "urge" Zelenski to negotiate.
The start, center, and end of diplomacy is action. That is the essence of it.
You start negotiations because of action. You negotiate promising an action. And the possibilities of outcome of diplomacy result in different courses of action.
The UK, being averse to action, should not be regarded as an important party if what you seek is action to conclude the war. Any war.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
The start, center, and end of diplomacy is action. That is the essence of it.
You start negotiations because of action. You negotiate promising an action. And the possibilities of outcome of diplomacy result in different courses of action.
The UK, being averse to action, should not be regarded as an important party if what you seek is action to conclude the war. Any war.
You are defining "war", not "diplomacy". Even if what you are describing looks more like "threat".
The art of diplomacy is to avoid having to take action.
If you are for action, you should applause Putin, he took action.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
You are defining "war", not "diplomacy". Even if what you are describing looks more like "threat".
The art of diplomacy is to avoid having to take action.
If you are for action, you should applause Putin, he took action.
I am not talking about war. I am talking about diplomacy. I was very explicit about that.
Diplomacy can lead to war. It can also lead to the cessation or prevention of a war. But to do that, action is needed.
Imagine it is 2014. NATO and its members are in consensus that Russia is preparing for a massive assault to take Ukraine, and will be ready by 2020.
NATO are determined to prevent a war. They conclude that to deter Russia from war, they must close the deployable capability gap between Russia and Europe.
They identify 3 paths:
  1. Sanctions to slow Russian armament.
  2. Arm Ukraine.
  3. Build own capability.
    1. And offer Ukraine certain security guarantees.
Come 2020 Russia is deterred and indefinitely postpones invasion plans.
Multiple sets of action were committed, but neither constitutes war.

Now re-read my post and try to understand my point.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I am not talking about war. I am talking about diplomacy. I was very explicit about that.
Diplomacy can lead to war. It can also lead to the cessation or prevention of a war. But to do that, action is needed.
Imagine it is 2014. NATO and its members are in consensus that Russia is preparing for a massive assault to take Ukraine, and will be ready by 2020.
NATO are determined to prevent a war. They conclude that to deter Russia from war, they must close the deployable capability gap between Russia and Europe.
They identify 3 paths:
  1. Sanctions to slow Russian armament.
  2. Arm Ukraine.
  3. Build own capability.
    1. And offer Ukraine certain security guarantees.
    2. Come 2020 Russia is deterred and indefinitely postpones invasion plans.
Multiple sets of action were committed, but neither constitutes war.
Now re-read my post and try to understand my point.
Imagine is 2022. Ukraine got back all the land corridor and there is peace now. I don't think diplomacy is re-arranging the past as you like it.
You are happy with NATO imposing its will because of its fortune-telling. Again, congratulate Putin.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Imagine is 2022. Ukraine got back all the land corridor and there is peace now. I don't think diplomacy is re-arranging the past as you like it.
You are happy with NATO imposing its will because of its fortune-telling. Again, congratulate Putin.
1. I did not say diplomacy is the act of time travel. You completely misread what I wrote. What I wrote was an example, a scenario.
"A scenario is a description of a possible series of events, often used to explore potential future situations or to outline the plot of a story or performance".
I do not understand why you would think diplomats are time traveling people. Time travel is not physically viable yet.

2. Further, because it is a scenario, it is hypothetical and did not happen. NATO did not impose its will, and I assure you the past remains unchanged.

3. It is weird that you have so far demanded twice that I praise Putin. Why should I do that? I am not a vatnik. Are you?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I guess, stability in Crimea is not a priority.

Sir Keir Starmer has said stability in the Middle East is "a priority" following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, as the world has reacted to the attack.
The prime minister also called on Iran to "return to the negotiating table" to "reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis".

Maybe it is more difficult to "urge" Zelenski to negotiate.
I'm not sure what your point is. Crimea is currently stable and has been since Russia took over. The state it's in might be viewed as undesirable, annexed by Russia, but it's certainly not unstable. As for diplomatic solutions, Trump has repeatedly urged Ukraine to negotiate. Those urges came with implied threats and at least in one case actual pressure by cutting supplies. It hasn't worked.

What level of difficulty would you assign to a Russian mafia chief versus an Iranian Shite religious wacko?
That's the problem, it's not just the chief. If it was just Putin, assassination could be a viable option. The problem is that there's a whole den of them all over the government structures. Putin isn't a dictator, he's the leader of a political clan that's firmly attached to the governmental and economic powers of Russia. So the difficulty isn't "Russian mafia chief". The difficulty is taking on a world power with wide-spread economic influence, a giant nuclear arsenal, and political ties beyond the west to much of the global south, as well as major powers like China and India.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I'm not sure what your point is.
I used Crimea as I could had used the Black Sea, Eastern Europe or the Russian-Ukrainian border; just as an example. I don't think Starmer has been urging Ukraine to negotiate and Ukraine is at the receiving end of an aggression, as Iran is. My guess is that UK interests, or priority, are there (Iran), not here, Ukraine (Crimea).

Maybe this huge exercise of hypocrisy helps, even if I don't know what words were used in Russian.

El Ministerio de Exteriores de Rusia ha condenado "firmemente" el ataque de Estados Unidos a las plantas nucleares iraníes. "La irresponsable decisión de atacar con misiles y bombas el territorio de un estado soberano, cualesquiera que sean los argumentos que lo justifiquen, supone una violación flagrante del derecho internacional, de la Carta de Naciones Unidas y de las resoluciones del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU", ha indicado el ministerio en un comunicado.
"Hacemos un llamamiento a detener la agresión y a incrementar los esfuerzos para crear las condiciones que hagan posible devolver la situación a una vía diplomática", ha añadido Exteriores.

Attacking a sovereign state is irresponsible and it goes against International Law. We make a call to stop the aggression. Russian Foreign Office.

Obviously, the same hypocrisy as condemning (or mentioning international law regarding) Russian aggression but not (Israel) US aggression. Is US (UK?) going to impose sanctions on US because of this act of aggression?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I did not say diplomacy is the act of time travel.
No, you didn't.
You just created a situation where everything went according to your plan, as you could, just as well, imagined a situation where nothing goes according to plan; including NATO's imposing sanctions based on... what they (you) imagined.

NATO's will, Putin's will.
Only one was implemented, but my impression is that you are happy with the one not implemented, with NATO imposing its will. I wasn't able to detect any criticism on NATO's imagined actions and starting an arms race.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
No, you didn't.
You just created a situation where everything went according to your plan, as you could, just as well, imagined a situation where nothing goes according to plan; including NATO's imposing sanctions based on... what they (you) imagined.

NATO's will, Putin's will.
Only one was implemented, but my impression is that you are happy with the one not implemented, with NATO imposing its will. I wasn't able to detect any criticism on NATO's imagined actions and starting an arms race.
I don't think he was advocating for that course or claiming it produced a good outcome. It was an attempt to demonstrate how actions shape diplomacy.

I used Crimea as I could had used the Black Sea, Eastern Europe or the Russian-Ukrainian border; just as an example. I don't think Starmer has been urging Ukraine to negotiate and Ukraine is at the receiving end of an aggression, as Iran is. My guess is that UK interests, or priority, are there (Iran), not here, Ukraine
Or maybe it's the opposite. Ukraine is the priority, and Starmer wants a victory there, not a mediated peace. Trump on the other hand considers Iran the priority and is de-prioritizing Ukraine at this time.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
No, you didn't.
You just created a situation where everything went according to your plan, as you could, just as well, imagined a situation where nothing goes according to plan; including NATO's imposing sanctions based on... what they (you) imagined.

NATO's will, Putin's will.
Only one was implemented, but my impression is that you are happy with the one not implemented, with NATO imposing its will. I wasn't able to detect any criticism on NATO's imagined actions and starting an arms race.
Imagine living into adulthood without understanding basic terms like:
  • Example
  • Hypothetical
  • Scenario
  • Imagination
The greatest virtue of the wise is their ability to ask, listen, learn.
Food for thought.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Sumy area.

Inside Sumy Ukrainian forces conducted a counter-attack, recapturing Andreevka and some positions near Alekseevka. Yunakovka remains contested, with some Russian gains. From the eastern side Russian forces have pushed through the forest and now approach the village of Sadki. In Kursk region Russian forces have cleared the area south of the Psel river near Gornal', and are pushing towards Miropol'ye. Meanwhile near Tetkino Ukrainian forces pushed up to Tetkino from the east.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian M1 Abrams somewhere in Sumy region.


Russian Molniya drone striking a target with a thermobaric warhead. One of the drone's advantages is that it's fairly large and can be adapted to a wide variety of payloads.


A series of Russian drone strikes around Kursk area, they hit some sort of heavy tracked vehicle, 2 BMP-2s, 1 BMP-1, and a vehicle under netting, possibly a truck.


There are reports that Russian Molniya and FPV drones are now reaching into Sumy. I suspect that right now it's Molniya drones acting as carriers for the small FPV drones.


Russia's 83rd VDV is operating a captured CV90. This is the most modern IFV Russian forces have captured, and really it should be getting hauled away for study.


Russian search and rescue films the downed Su-35S.


A new Russian mineclearing UGV called Stalker is being used in Kursk region. The most famous mine-clearing UGV Russia uses is the Uran-6, which is a copy of the Croatian MV-4 DOK-ING. There's a good chance the type wasn't fully localized, and Russia now needs a replacement option.


Kupyansk area.


There are reports from Russian sources of a Russian breakthrough to Moskovka, but corroboration is thoroughly absent. Fighting continues around Kondrashovka and Russian forces are contesting Golubovka. Russian forces have also gained some ground west of Dvurechnoe. On the left shore of the Oskol Russian forces now hold Stepovaya Novoselka, and have gained some area north-west of it.


Russia hits a Ukrainian T-72B3 in a entrenched position.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian crossing point near Kupyansk.


A small pile of Russian drone strikes in the area of Kupyansk, they hit a pickup truck, a couple of what appear to be MBTs, and what looks like an SP howitzer.


Oskol front.


Russian forces have entered Noviy Put', entering Kharkov region from the south-east, and are approaching Gluschenkovo. In Lugansk region they took Grekovka. Clashes continue inside Zelenaya Dolina with Russian forces surrounding it from 3 sides. On the left shore, Ukrainian forces recaptured a chunk of ground east of Torskoe.


Russian drone strikes destroy a Ukrainian T-72. The tank explodes, but some crew manages to bail out before that.


Russian strike hits a Ukrainian guntruck with a S-60 AAA near Krasniy Liman.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian SP howitzer, allegedly a Krab, in an emplacement, near Krasniy Liman.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have taken all of Grigorovka and some areas around it, and are entering Serebryanka. Between Ivano-Darievka and Verkhnekamenskoe Russian forces have taken a large chunk of open fields. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked in the Serebryanskaya woods, regaining a large chunk of ground.


Russia hits a Ukrainian M109 near Seversk.


A Msta-S chassis converted into either an APC or an ARV, in Ukrainian service, getting it near Seversk.


Russian strike takes out a Puma APC near Belogorovka. This might be the same we saw destroyed previously.


Chasov Yar.


South of Chasov Yar, Stupochki is now almost completely under Russian control. Note there were reports earlier of Russian advances there, but the area then remained contested. North of Chasov Yar Russian forces have taken another chunk of treeline along the east bank of the canal.


Russia lost an Su-25 near Soledar, possibly due to the mechanical failure.


Russian drone strike on a Krab howitzer in a fairly complex shelter, near Vasyutinskoe, east of Kramatorsk.


Konstantinovka area.

I'm combining the area east of the eastern pincer on Pokrovsk with the area north of Toretsk. This is now effectively one large effort from Yablonovka all the way to Dyleevka. Russian forces continue to push through Yablonovka, and have a chunk of Aleksandrovo-Kalinovo including the key intersection with the road east-ward south of the reservoir. We will likely see Ukrainian forces pulling out of this forming pocket soon. North of Toretsk Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Belaya Gora but didn't not consolidate any major gains there, gained ground in Dyleevka village, and have taken a number of fields west of the canal. Dyleevka station and a chunk of the rail berm and tree lines north of it are now fully under Russian control. Russian forces also continue to gain ground in the country-side north of Toretsk. The refuse mound of the Novodzerzhinskaya mound is fully under Russian control. Ukrainian forces west and north-west of Toretsk now only have one very small way out past a set of Russian-held strong points on a refuse mound.


Destroyed XA-180, Roshel Senator, and Bergenpanzer-2 near Yablonovka.


Russian Shahed strikes on Ukrainian front-line positions near Yablonovka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pokrovsk area.

East of Pokrovsk Russian forces have advanced in Mirnoe and have taken most of the area between Malinovka and Yelizavetovka. Russian forces have also taken Koptevo, and some area around Shevchenko Pervoe. West of Pokrovsk Russian forces captured the rail junction north of Peschanoe while Ukrainian force regained some ground in Zverovoe. Russian forces have also begun pushing north out of Novosergeevka, to flank Ukrainian defenses in Udachnoe. Inside Udachnoe itself Russian advances remain minimal.


Russian drone strikes near Pokrovsk. They hit an M113, Ukrainian positions, a couple of retranslator antennas, and an armored car of some unknown type.


Another pile of drone strike videos, they hit an unarmored car, a concealed howitzer of some sort, 2 armored cars, a BMP, and an unarmored truck.


A Russian strike on either a SP howitzer or a convincing decoy, Pokrovsk area.


Russian strike on allegedly an AS-90 howitzer near Shakhovo, north-east of Pokrovsk. The vehicle is active before being hit, so probably not a decoy.


Russian Iskander strike on Svyatogorovka, near Dobropol'ye.


Russian forces captured a BATT-UMG armored car near Pokrovsk.


Ukrainian logistics tunnel in Pokrovsk area.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.


Russian forces have firmly entered Dnepropetrovsk area south-west of Kotlyarovka. North of this Russian forces have taken all of Novonikolaevka and entered Muravka. South of there Russian forces continue to bite off pieces of the country-side north of the Volchya, towards the region border. Zeleniy Kut has been fully captured as has Orekhovo.


Russian drone strikes hit two M113s, one Pbv302, and some unarmored vehicles, near Dachnoe, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian TOS-1 fires in the Novopavlovka area.


New Ukrainian defense lines in Dnepropetrovsk region.


Velikaya Novoselka area.


Russian forces have taken the villages of Komar, Perebudnoe, Zaporozhye, and are contesting Shevechenko. West of Veseloe and east of Komar Russian forces have taken large chunks of countryside.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian 2S22 near Malievka, Dnepropetrovsk region. This is just west of Shevchenko.


Zaporozhye.


Russian forces have begun assaulting the village of Malinovka from the south and south-east. They've also grabbed some country-side north-east of it. South of Orekhov, Russian forces have pushed forward a little more.


Russian LMUR strikes in Malinovka.


A series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian air defenses, now in Zaporozhye. They hit a Buk-M3, and a Pantsyr, which unsuccessfully tries to down the drone with it's cannons. They try to but fail to hit an Imbir' radar. The Buk-M3 appears to be inactive when they target it, and we don't really have BDA from the other two hits, but based on the video it seems likely the drones landed on target.


Russian FPV drone takes out a 2S22 in a shelter, Zaporozhye region.


Dnepr front.


Russian strike on a now quite rare Ukrainian BM-21 in Kherson region.


Russian forces along the Dnepr continue to train for amphibious assault. So far a major cross-Dnepr push seems doomed to failure. I suspect they won't try it until Ukraine is just too busy elsewhere to respond. The BMP-3 has barrels tied to it because it probably doesn't float very well with the extra armor kit and the roof cage installed.


Black Sea/Crimea.

It appears Ukraine attempted another landing on the Kinburn peninsula but it was repusled with one Ukrainian boat being hit by a Lancet strike. The Russian unit there is the 80th Arctic Bde.


Meanwhile it appears Russia attempted to recapture one of the Ukrainian platforms in the Black Sea, but failed with substantial casualties. They did apparently destroy Ukrainian equipment on the platform before withdrawing. Russia did strike both platforms, and the Zmeiniy Island.


A Russian drone takes out a Ukrainian unmanned boat.


A Russian Orion-S watches Ukrainian unmanned boats on the Black Sea near one of the offshore platform in Crimea.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian Shaheds and missiles hitting Kiev. In one case an apparently downed Kh-101 fell onto a building, causing massive damage. Note what the damage looks like (1st link). This is what a Russian missile will typically do to even a large concrete building. This damage pattern is very different from what happens when a SAM crashes into a similar building, or a drone hits it. Targets hit include the Zhulyani airport area possibly targeting Patriot positions there, a radio-equipment factory, the Artem factory, and the Sikorski aviation institute. Note the latter recently was shown off as being a place where Ukrainian drone interceptors are being stored. There are also reports of blackouts, but it's unclear of the power grid was targeted, or if it's collateral damage. Note these links represent at least 4 separate nights of strikes. In general Russian strikes have been both larger and far more impactful. It's likely a combination of increased Russian inbounds, and decereased Ukrainian air defense capabilities.


Russian strikes also hit Borispol'.


Russian-made Ka-32s provided by Portugal putting out fires in Kiev after one of the waves of strikes.


Russian strikes, one on Konotop, Sumy region, the other on the Oldysh sanatorium, south outskrits of Sumy city, both with an Iskander. Target is allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Russian strikes hit Kharkov.


In Kharkov a TCC (Territorial Complectation Center, the place where they mobilize people) burns, possibly due to a Russian strike.


Russia hit something near Kharkov that caused secondary explosions, it might be munition storage.


A series of Russian strikes on Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkovka. These three cities are now key to Ukrainian logistics in the area east of Pokrovsk.


Battle damage from Russian strikes on the Dnepropress factory in Dnepropetrovsk.


Russian Shaheds hitting allegedly fuel storage and industrial area targets in Zaporozhye.


Russia has repeatedly struck the Kremenchug oil refinery, with reports of Shaheds and Kinzhals. The scope and repeated strikes seem to be aimed at thoroughly destroying the facility. The strikes involved a Kh-101 with cluster-munitions.


Russian Iskander strike hit a Ukrainian training ground on the border of Kherson and Nikolaev regions near Davidov Brod, an area that some heavy fighting earlier in the war. No good casualty information is available yet. The munition used appears to be a cluster variant.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian Iskander strike hit a Ukrainian training ground on the border of Kherson and Nikolaev regions near Davidov Brod, an area that some heavy fighting earlier in the war. No good casualty information is available yet. The munition used appears to be a cluster variant.


Russia hit the Shkol'niy airfield near Odessa, among other targets in the region. There were impacts in Odessa itself, though targets are unclear. Shkol'niy specifically has been hit multiple times before. Some of the strikes hit targest in Ovidiopole, namely a canning factory.


Strikes in the outskirts of Odessa, Belgorod-Dnestrovskiy. The target was a local school.


Russian strikes landing in Dubno, Rovno region, reportedly it was the local airbase.


A large explosion after a Russian strike on Ternopol'.


Ukrainian Sting drone interceptors apparently intercepting Russian Shaheds.


Russia launching a jet-powered Shahed drone.


Another new Russian drone type has appeared, this one is apparently meant to reconnoiter paths for Shahed strikes and can also act as a decoy. We also have a Shahed with FPV controls, and some sort of AI features used.


Jet powered Shahed drones were reportedly used in recent strikes.


Ukrainian drones hit Orenburg, targets unclear.


Ukraine hit the entrance to a car factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan. 1 dead, 13 wounded, civilians all, reported. Russian air defenses attempted to but failed to intercept one of the drones.


Ukraine hit a factory in Cheboksary, that produces the satellite guidance antennas for UMPK bombs, and Shahed drones, among other systems. Reportedly an An-196 was used.


Ukraine hit the Azot factory in Tula.


A Ukrainian drone hit a residential building in Krasnogorsk near Moscow.


Ukraine hit Donetsk, allegedly with a HIMARS, a residential building got hit, wounding 10 civilians, and killing 5.


Ukraine hit a gas station in Belgorod region, reportedly 1 dead 4 wounded civilians.


Ukraine attempted to hit targets in Voronezh region, possibly the local airbase, but were allegedly all intercepted.


Ukrainian drones aimed to hit the Tambov powder factory, in Kotovsk.


A Russian air defense tower, Moscow region. Note this is a Pantsyr but not the SP variant, instead the module variant. Pre-war Russia did not operate any such Pantsyrs. I think this is indirect evidence of continued production of the type.


Interesting bits.

Russian forces firing a DPRK M1991 MLRS whose proper name remains unknown.


Russian forces have taken a Bukhanka and mounted a DPRK-sourced Type 75 MLRS in the back.


Confirmation of DPRK supplies in Russian service continues to trickle in, here we have 122mm and 107mm MLRS rounds.


Iranian 130mm and 122mm shells in Russian service. Prewar 130mm guns were almost completely gone from Russian service, except the VMF, and the 122mm were slowly being displaced.


Russian Kornet-D portable launchers. Note the Kornet-D is the new longer-ranged variant. These launchers also have a remote so they can be operated from a distance.


Russia's 810th MarBde practicing with a new multi-barrel machinegun for drone defense, and posing with a Khrizantema-S. Note they didn't have any Khrizantemas pre-war. Presumably this is a war-time delivery.


More footage has shown up of the new Russian drone, allegedly using AI as part of the controls. The drone is called a V2U.


Another look at Ukraine's new Sting interceptors.


Russia has been using depth-charge launchers from ships as improvised-MLRS for some time. Now we have a Ukrainian variants mounted on an MT-LB. Note this variant disassembled the original circular mount and instead set up a more conventional MLRS-style layout.


Ex-Spanish BMR-600 APCs being used by Ukraine's National Guard Bde Lyut'.


Norway has reportedly handed over 14 F-16s to Ukraine.

 

rsemmes

Active Member
I wonder if Zelenski should take the last NATO summit as a hint for real negotiations (he certainly should).

This was chiefly because of one man: Trump has shown little appetite for ramping up military assistance for Ukraine, and there are growing fears he might disengage from the war altogether.

Donald Trump has indicated he will consider providing more of the Patriot missiles... The US president also left open the possibility of providing more military aid to Kyiv.

A sidelined Ukraine
After Russia invaded Ukraine by launching the biggest land conflict since World War II in 2022, NATO summits have largely focused on providing support to Kyiv. This summit was different.
Previously, the emphasis was on Ukraine’s membership prospects and on bringing it closer to NATO without actually joining. But the final summit statement this time made no such mention.
Instead, the leaders underlined “their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine.”

It is the same story in French and Spanish. If you are living on wishes and they get distracted, it can only be worse or a disaster. It was and it has been about rearming NATO (and damaging Russia), Ukraine is just an useful pawn in this realpolitik.


The whole of Nato, including the US, is “totally committed” to keeping Ukraine in the fight against Russia’s invasion, the alliance’s secretary general said. (theguardian)

"Keeping Ukraine in the fight", the net results from that (for Ukraine) have to be great.
 
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