The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

Colonelcassad

В Одессе продолжаются прилеты. Ведётся локальное поражение объектов .

t.me

Russian reports indicate that another Black Sea vessel was lost:

Perhaps this is why Russian response with more attack on Odessa region. Still pattern of Ukrainian Maritime drones and SSM attacks already being known. Continue losses from Black Sea Fleet do raises questions on Black Sea precautionary moves.

Colonelcassad

Авторский канал Бориса Рожина - эксперта Центра военно-политической журналистики. Сетевой никнейм - Colonelcassad. Мой блог: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ Прогоголосовать за канал: https://t.me/boost/boris_rozhin Разбаны: [email protected]

t.me

When Boris Rozhin already put in their telegram, then it is usually one notch below official confirmation.

 

[KipPotapych]

Colonelcassad

В Одессе продолжаются прилеты. Ведётся локальное поражение объектов .

t.me

Perhaps this is why Russian response with more attack on Odessa region. Still pattern of Ukrainian Maritime drones and SSM attacks already being known. Continue losses from Black Sea Fleet do raises questions on Black Sea precautionary moves.

I believe those mutual attacks began more or less simultaneously this time. I think I first saw the reports of a continuous air raid on Odessa before any word of the Black Sea/Crimea strike.

The strike on the Black Sea Fleet and Crimea was predictable because it was preceded by a major drone raid the day before, as well as a few missiles the day prior, and it seems to be the norm. I have no idea what precautions are taken by the Russians and why they cannot protect their assets, especially given that these events are fairly predictable - there is a clear pattern that is, funny enough, recognized and described by the Russians as well. Of course, those who describe it are more than unhappy about it. Go figure.

Edit: allegedly a video of the ship being hit:

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Кадры атаки на патрульный корабль Черноморского флота проекта 22160 «Сергей Котов». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A post by Fighterbomber on the subject (via Telegram translate), implying that there is not much they can do at the moment:

It can be stated that BECs have shown their highest efficiency, and accept that at the moment large ships cannot effectively resist BECs.

Speed, night, stealth and the number of BECs participating in the attack solve issues with thermal imagers and additional fire weapons on board and in general with everything.

I don’t know what conclusions can be drawn other than the fact that now it is necessary to accept this fact, move all large ships beyond the effective range of the BECs, close the mooring areas with engineering means to prevent the BECs from damaging ships at the berths, transfer the tasks of the Black Sea Fleet to small and high-speed boats and boats type "Raptor", submarines and aircraft.
Well, it’s natural to speed up building your BECs.

Along the way, around the clock testing somewhere in Vladivostok various options for defensive weapons, detection, guidance and electronic warfare equipment on existing Navy ships, endlessly simulating BEC attacks in practice.

I repeat, repeat. Today we need to simulate not attacks by submarines of a hypothetical enemy, but attacks by high-speed, small-sized targets with television guidance.

Well, for the best, all this should be done, as usual, yesterday.

Fighterbomber

Можно констатировать, что БЭКи показали свою высочайшую эффективность, и принять, что на сегодняшний момент большие корабли эффективно противостоять БЭКам не могут. Скорость, ночь, малозаметность и колличество БЭКов учавствующих в атаке решают вопросы и с тепловизорами и с дополнительными...

t.me

Edit 2:

per

DniproГарбузOsint | ±

Канал про геолокації з лінії фронту. Гарбуз

t.me

And one more video:

DniproГарбузOsint | ±

Канал про геолокації з лінії фронту. Гарбуз

t.me

 

[Big_Zucchini]

A post by Fighterbomber on the subject (via Telegram translate), implying that there is not much they can do at the moment:

It can be stated that BECs have shown their highest efficiency, and accept that at the moment large ships cannot effectively resist BECs.

Speed, night, stealth and the number of BECs participating in the attack solve issues with thermal imagers and additional fire weapons on board and in general with everything.

I don’t know what conclusions can be drawn other than the fact that now it is necessary to accept this fact, move all large ships beyond the effective range of the BECs, close the mooring areas with engineering means to prevent the BECs from damaging ships at the berths, transfer the tasks of the Black Sea Fleet to small and high-speed boats and boats type "Raptor", submarines and aircraft.
Well, it’s natural to speed up building your BECs.

Along the way, around the clock testing somewhere in Vladivostok various options for defensive weapons, detection, guidance and electronic warfare equipment on existing Navy ships, endlessly simulating BEC attacks in practice.

I repeat, repeat. Today we need to simulate not attacks by submarines of a hypothetical enemy, but attacks by high-speed, small-sized targets with television guidance.

Well, for the best, all this should be done, as usual, yesterday.

It would be wise of Russia to simply disband the black sea fleet and focus efforts elsewhere. Right now much of the area is denied by Ukraine, and when the war ends it will likely only get worse with Ukraine solidifying an A2/AD zone across every strategic point of the black sea and azov sea.

 

[KipPotapych]

Rybar says that the ship was hit with 5 sea drones and the sixth was destroyed by a Mi-8. The crew was evacuated around 3AM and, while it could have been towed, the ship sank in the morning due to the late orders from the top. Sounds about right and not surprising (the orders part). Allegedly, 3 more drones were destroyed later, whose target was likely the bridge (allegedly).

Рыбарь

❗️ Об атаке на патрульный корабль «Сергей Котов» — разбор @rybar Поскольку все эмоции и чувства по поводу очередного удара ВСУ БЭКами и потере патрульного корабля «Сергей Котов» улеглись, мы бы хотели рассказать о том, что произошло ночью поподробнее. И цель этого разбора не в том, чтобы...

t.me

First visually confirmed destruction of a HIMARS unit:

DniproГарбузOsint | ±

Канал про геолокації з лінії фронту. Гарбуз

t.me

And another S-300 allegedly destroyed near Slavyansk.

ИЗНАНКА

#эксклюзив Поражение ПУ ЗРК "С-300" и радиолокатора подсвета целей и наведения ракет ВСУ расчетом ОТРК "Искандер-М" и бомбардировщиком Су-34 с применением ракеты Х-35 в районе н.п. Славянск на Красно-Лиманском направлении. ИЗНАНКА ★ Наш Чат ★ Прислать новость

t.me

And allegedly the third Abrams damaged/destroyed/lost, supposedly from a PTUR this time:

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Ещё кадры с третьим подбитым «Абрамсом». Все три на Авдеевском направлении. Источник: @SolovievLive

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Уже третий подбитый M1A1SA Abrams на Авдеевском направлении, рядом с ним также подбитая и брошенная M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA. Сообщается, что танк был выведен из строя выстрелом ПТРК. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Another edit:

In regard to the reliability of “burning evidence” and downed aircraft. The RU Telegram channel claimed a Ukrainian jet crushed shortly after take off near Dnepropetrovsk/Dnipro:

Донбасский Партизан

✈️Крушение реактивного самолёта вблизи Днепропетровска Согласно полученным данным около 8:03 произошло крушение реактивного самолета ВВС Украины вблизи Днепропетровска. Координаты: 48.3908686, 34.9091046 Практически сразу после взлёта с аэродрома Авиаторское терпел крушения, вероятно...

t.me

Later, the UA Telegram channel claimed that they fed the RU channel a photo of a supposedly burning S-300 on Feb 24, 2022 and the RU took the bait:

DniproГарбузOsint | ±

Канал про геолокації з лінії фронту. Гарбуз

t.me

 

[Fredled]

These videos of burning grass passed off as downed Su-34 [sic @Feanor ] or other plumes of smoke in the sky, are just good for entertainment and doesn't show or prove anything. Sometimes the information is true but the video is unrelated and added only for illustrative purpose. Getting audience in your social network chanel with only text doesn't work. Then you have expert wannabe trying to decrypt what they see... LOL.

 

[seaspear]

Might it be fair to suggest that foreign surveillance planes monitoring the skies have a good idea of events like aircraft incidents , its easy to get sucked into reports by bloggers who are paid or employed ,The I.S.W report goes into length about Russia's stated aims and is worth reading for context

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Feanor]

These videos of burning grass passed off as downed Su-34 [sic @Feanor ] or other plumes of smoke in the sky, are just good for entertainment and doesn't show or prove anything. Sometimes the information is true but the video is unrelated and added only for illustrative purpose. Getting audience in your social network chanel with only text doesn't work. Then you have expert wannabe trying to decrypt what they see... LOL.

In this case they are quoting claims from locals. If we had the claims themselves, it would be much better then merely footage of burning grass. However as is, I agree - completely unreliable. Of course if we are to believe official Russian claims that not only have they shot down the entire Ukrainian airforce by now. In fact presumably Ukraine's jets starting laying eggs and have hatched at least a couple of generations by now, also already all shot down. So I would give very little credence to unsupported claims from either side's government. Russia has destroyed 500+ M777 howitzers, but Ukraine has taken only 31 000 KIAs in the war and didn't lose a single village in 2023 (this is important to remember ).

 

[KipPotapych]

In this case they are quoting claims from locals. If we had the claims themselves, it would be much better then merely footage of burning grass. However as is, I agree - completely unreliable. Of course if we are to believe official Russian claims that not only have they shot down the entire Ukrainian airforce by now. In fact presumably Ukraine's jets starting laying eggs and have hatched at least a couple of generations by now, also already all shot down. So I would give very little credence to unsupported claims from either side's government. Russia has destroyed 500+ M777 howitzers, but Ukraine has taken only 31 000 KIAs in the war and didn't lose a single village in 2023 (this is important to remember ).

You mean like this, lol… Approximate assessment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 24.02.2022:

Note the number of RU personnel killed and wounded is about 1,700,000. From:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

There is (or was?) a similar Russian site but without the percentages that I cannot locate at the moment. They actually had more way reasonable numbers (perhaps, adjusted for population they’d be the same).

 

[Jaykaro]

You mean like this, lol… Approximate assessment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 24.02.2022:

Note the number of RU personnel killed and wounded is about 1,700,000. From:

https://www.minusrus.com/en

There is (or was?) a similar Russian site but without the percentages that I cannot locate at the moment. They actually had more way reasonable numbers (perhaps, adjusted for population they’d be the same).

The website added information on its own, and even if we consider purely Ukrainian sources, 400,000 killed and wounded(official ukrainian sources) is not so unrealistic. According to leaked documents from American intelligence in the spring of 2023, they estimated Russia's losses at 43,000 killed (not including Wagner and the LDNR), with a ratio of killed to wounded at 1:4( Ukrainian losses 18k with 1:6 ). Then there was Bahmut with 20,000 killed and Avdiivka with 16,000 killed according to statements from a Russian military correspondent, Even if we don't consider other losses, this would already be at least 80,000 killed and over 320,000 wounded. . Therefore, even if the figure of 400,000 killed and wounded is exaggerated, I don't think it's by much

 

[vonnoobie]

The website added information on its own, and even if we consider purely Ukrainian sources, 400,000 killed and wounded(official ukrainian sources) is not so unrealistic. According to leaked documents from American intelligence in the spring of 2023, they estimated Russia's losses at 43,000 killed (not including Wagner and the LDNR), with a ratio of killed to wounded at 1:4( Ukrainian losses 18k with 1:6 ). Then there was Bahmut with 20,000 killed and Avdiivka with 16,000 killed according to statements from a Russian military correspondent, Even if we don't consider other losses, this would already be at least 80,000 killed and over 320,000 wounded. . Therefore, even if the figure of 400,000 killed and wounded is exaggerated, I don't think it's by much

If you look at it carefully below the 419,020 figure it is worded in smaller print wounded - 1,257,060....

 

[Jaykaro]

If you look at it carefully below the 419,020 figure it is worded in smaller print wounded - 1,257,060....

If you carefully read my post, I'm talking about official statistics from Ukraine, where this 'annotation' is not indicated. Therefore, these small numbers at the bottom are the creator's fantasy. And this website has no relation to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

 

[Feanor]

If you look at it carefully below the 419,020 figure it is worded in smaller print wounded - 1,257,060....

If you carefully read my post, I'm talking about official statistics from Ukraine, where this 'annotation' is not indicated. Therefore, these small numbers at the bottom are the creator's fantasy. And this website has no relation to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

I think this argument is pointless. Both sides have thoroughly discredited themselves through official sources. Neither is to be trusted without corroboration and both have been lying from the first days of the war (Ghost of Kiev anyone? or Russia's claims of "goodwill" gestures?). It's pretty clear the website linked above is not to be trusted since it doesn't contain anything remotely resembling a factual basis for its numbers. It might be right, it might be wrong, it might be Ukrainian psyops. Even casualty figures from much more credible (in principle sources) vary wildly. We will have to wait until better sources emerge and likely this will come after the war ends.

 

[Vivendi]

Ukraine's allies have now committed almost all the funds needed to fund the purchase of 800,000 ammo-shells from outside of Europe. Deliveries to commence within weeks. Among the donors is now also Germany that has committed a "three-digit million Euro sum" Fantastic news!
Ukraine Allies Line Up Funds for 800,000 Artillery Shells - Bloomberg
Germany to join Czech initiative to procure ammunition for Ukraine (yahoo.com)

What is not so good news is that in total EU ammo production has increased by only 50% since the start of the war. This is much lower than what I expected. This must be an aggregate number since I know that some factories in Sweden and Finland has increased by much more than 50% (more like 100%) -- this would imply that other factories have seen an increase of less than 50% which is very disappointing.
Mr. Borrell also says that 350,000 shells have been donated to Ukraine for EU stocks.
In addition, Ukraine has purchased more than 350,000 shells from EU. In a previous post someone pointed out that a significant portion of EU manufactured shells are exported. This is correct, however many of these (> 350,000) still ended up in Ukraine.
Defence: Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell at the press conference to present the European Defence Industrial Strategy | EEAS (europa.eu)

 

[seaspear]

Since by Russian law it cant be referred to as a war which casualty figures are required to be given that may not be any time soon .there seems to be plenty of cases where soldiers are listed as missing so no benefits are paid to families
this earlier article suggests that Russia uses mobile crematoriums to dispose of their dead and even Ukrainian citizens

Russian usage of mobile crematoriums in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Since the Russian army which prior to this war had the most tanks of any army now has to resort to using its tanks that were stored out in the open and may date back to the early 1950,s to keep par with losses and achieve production requirements from Medeved ,the tank losses can be expected to be severe ,it might be a long time before Russia gets those tanks numbers replaced

 

[Feanor]

Since by Russian law it cant be referred to as a war which casualty figures are required to be given that may not be any time soon .there seems to be plenty of cases where soldiers are listed as missing so no benefits are paid to families
this earlier article suggests that Russia uses mobile crematoriums to dispose of their dead and even Ukrainian citizens

Russian usage of mobile crematoriums in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Since the Russian army which prior to this war had the most tanks of any army now has to resort to using its tanks that were stored out in the open and may date back to the early 1950,s to keep par with losses and achieve production requirements from Medeved ,the tank losses can be expected to be severe ,it might be a long time before Russia gets those tanks numbers replaced

Sort of. We don't know the state of Russia's current inventory. Are they pulling tanks fast enough to replace losses or are field units short? I would lean on the second given some reports from mobilized motor-rifle regiments, but it's unclear how the situation is right this instance. Overall it seems Russian leadership agrees with the assessment that they need more tanks since they appear to be pushing to restart T-80 production in some form (they claim OKR Burlak as the basis but my bet is a Proryv type upgrade for the T-80 turret to include an ammo storage compartment in the rear of the turret and a panoramic sight but no second autoloader or 2A82 gun). We also don't know what Russia's postwar forces will look like. Current plans are... napoleonic, to put it mildly, but what really comes of it remains to be seen. If Russian leadership has any sense we should also be seeing changes to ORBATs from this war down to the company and platoon levels. What does a future Motor-Rifles unit even look like? Does every rgt/bde need a btln of MBTs?

P.S. To be more concise, it's far too early to talk about replacing stocks. This war is far from over. Right now everything decent and much that isn't is heading to front, with a difficult future.

 

[Fredled]

Might it be fair to suggest that foreign surveillance planes monitoring the skies have a good idea of events like aircraft incidents , its easy to get sucked into reports by bloggers who are paid or employed ,The I.S.W report goes into length about Russia's stated aims and is worth reading for context

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

I don't think that there are a lot of foreign surveillance planes flying above Ukraine. And Nato airspace is too far from the zone of combat. They rely at 90% on satelite imagery.

 

[Fredled]

You mean like this, lol… Approximate assessment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 24.02.2022:
....

A few days ago Ukrinform which shows the same kind of table recently started to write killed and wounded instead of killed as they did so far.

This makes a huge difference and suddenly put their numbers more inside the realm of plausibility. If we consider that there are 2 wounded for one killed, then 420K/3 = 140K. This is in line with foreign estimates (understand pundits from the West). Note: Estimates are not official reports. I'm talking about military analysts who try to give a reasonable view.

There is also the meaning of wounded which can be quite large. Normally it should those who will not return. But I doubt it is. Especially knowing how hard it is to be declared inapt to combat in the Russian army right now.

The same with vehicles destroyed. They probably mean damaged or destroyed. Probably just hit by some sort of projectile.

this earlier article suggests that Russia uses mobile crematoriums to dispose of their dead and even Ukrainian citizens

Sadly, I got confirmation from an off-line source that it's true.
I myself thought that it was Uke propaganda. But no. It's reality.

Sort of. We don't know the state of Russia's current inventory.

Russians increased production volumes faster than the West. Yet they are still far from their war economy plans. They also face delays. The fact that they are buying shell from NK stocks, drones and missiles from Iran shows that their own production is still not running at full steam.

Interestingly, Ukrainian drone hit a iron ore mine in Russia (link later). That's weird, since you would think that there are thousands of better targets than iron ores. But it's possible that Russians need this iron to melt new tank hulls...

 

[vikingatespam]

I hope this is not off-topic, but are there good, genuine UKR charities or funds that people can recommend ?

 

[seaspear]

I don't think that there are a lot of foreign surveillance planes flying above Ukraine. And Nato airspace is too far from the zone of combat. They rely at 90% on satelite imagery.

I don't of course have first hand knowledge of what an aircraft like the The Wedgetail for instance may pick up from the Black sea of aircraft activity in Southern Ukraine of aircraft and missiles colliding

 

[Feanor]

I don't think that there are a lot of foreign surveillance planes flying above Ukraine. And Nato airspace is too far from the zone of combat. They rely at 90% on satelite imagery.

Modern ELINT/SIGINT and AEW can do a lot from quite a ways away. Foreign surveillance planes aren't necessarily flying above Ukraine but generally fly near Ukraine and can get a lot of intelligence that way.

Interestingly, Ukrainian drone hit a iron ore mine in Russia (link later). That's weird, since you would think that there are thousands of better targets than iron ores. But it's possible that Russians need this iron to melt new tank hulls...

Target of opportunity? General attacks on anything on the other side of the front line? Unclear.