Russia - General Discussion.
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Evidently not as well as you. You going to fill in a gap in my education then?
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Ukraine has formally requested the Iron Dome from Israel.
Israel's Minister of Defense Benny Gantz has, for the first time, commented on the topic in a way that could be interpreted as a clear explanation of current policy. Alongside him, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, has taken an interview and commented on the same topic.
Benny Gantz simply said that Israel did not and does not send Ukraine any form of weapons. However, he did offer to help Ukraine set up a civilian warning system that would alert civilians of incoming fire.
Gadi Eisenkot added in an interview that sending arms to Ukraine would be a big mistake, and that the Iron Dome tech has only been shared with the US and "one or two other countries". Meaning Ukraine is not the first, nor last, to be denied Iron Dome tech. The sensitivity of this tech is significant.
Israel's Minister of Defense Benny Gantz has, for the first time, commented on the topic in a way that could be interpreted as a clear explanation of current policy. Alongside him, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, has taken an interview and commented on the same topic.
Benny Gantz simply said that Israel did not and does not send Ukraine any form of weapons. However, he did offer to help Ukraine set up a civilian warning system that would alert civilians of incoming fire.
Gadi Eisenkot added in an interview that sending arms to Ukraine would be a big mistake, and that the Iron Dome tech has only been shared with the US and "one or two other countries". Meaning Ukraine is not the first, nor last, to be denied Iron Dome tech. The sensitivity of this tech is significant.
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In Russian sources it was reported that he said it could cause issues for Israeli use of airspace over Syria where they "share" the airspace. Is this accurate?
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
SMEs for media outlets in Israel typically reference the deconfliction mechanism over Syria as the reason, but that's just a very superficial way to look at things and erroneously summarizes an entire list of reasons into just one, and one of the least important ones at that.
Sensitivity of tech, sale of arms and nuclear tech to Iran, large jewish population in Russia, and a scale of security issues not seen since Yom Kippur War, really top this list.
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The most dire predictions on lack of gas for heating in Europe seems less and less likely. German storages had already reached 96.5% last week (target was 95% by Nov 1st). They looked at 4 scenarios back in August, and the worst-case scenario entailed an emergency situation in November. However now the worst-case scenario has been moved to end of February, and looks less likely as mild weather is predicted. German energy regulator says gas supply looks encouraging | Euronews
Spains's gas storages are almost full, they cannot absorb the LNG currently available. Several LNG ships are waiting to unload either because of lack of free capacity to receive them, and/or because the LNG prices are currently low. Around the Iberian Peninsula and in the Mediterranean Sea, at least 35 gas ships are said to be in waiting positions. LNG tankers stuck amid gas crunch – DW – 10/20/2022
European gas prices have been dropping today, and are expected to trend downwards for the next week: EUROPE GAS-Prices drop on warm weather, nearly full stocks | Nasdaq
Seems like Russia will struggle to be able to use gas to pressure Western Europe -- unless there is more sabotage against gas infrastructure in Europe.
Spains's gas storages are almost full, they cannot absorb the LNG currently available. Several LNG ships are waiting to unload either because of lack of free capacity to receive them, and/or because the LNG prices are currently low. Around the Iberian Peninsula and in the Mediterranean Sea, at least 35 gas ships are said to be in waiting positions. LNG tankers stuck amid gas crunch – DW – 10/20/2022
European gas prices have been dropping today, and are expected to trend downwards for the next week: EUROPE GAS-Prices drop on warm weather, nearly full stocks | Nasdaq
Seems like Russia will struggle to be able to use gas to pressure Western Europe -- unless there is more sabotage against gas infrastructure in Europe.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
European gas slumps below €100 for first time since Russia cut supplies
Mild weather and large amounts of fuel on storage have helped reduce prices
www.ft.com
It will be too soon saying that Euro zone already able to comfortably decoupling from Russian gas. The question remain:
1. How the winter whether going to be. If it is mild, then it will benefit Euro reserve. If harsh winter, then some other arragement even back to Russia has to be comsider.
2. Next year Gas supply still needed to be find to really replace Russian Gas. This year reserve still take advantage of Russian supply at least the firsr half of the year. Next year, Euro need to find other sources to really replace Russian supply. One thing for sure, it will cost Euro zone more.
Either way, wherever they source it, cheap Gas Price is seems thing of the past. Especially for Euro Zone.
Ukraine's vast untapped gas reserves lined up to supply energy to Europe
Country in talks with American drilling companies to bring its resources to the market
There's question why Ukraine don't do gas exploration from begining. Talk on war even the civil war before invasion for me is not the reason. The reason simply why invest on Ukraine gas, when Russian gas is cheaper. While new Investment for this 'supposedly' big Ukranian reserve will be high.
Asside big part of the reserve lies on Russian control area, even if Zelensky and West able to drive them out, it will cost big to invest on new facilities for Gas Exploration there. Off course present calculation on decoupling with Russia make the cost of Investment doable for Euro Zone. However this come with Big "if" on the war results.
Gas Price Crisis Overshadows A Crisis In Oil Prices | OilPrice.com
The U.S. dollar’s important role in the affordability of oil amid what is increasingly looking like a global economic slowdown is a completely underestimated factor in energy trade
oilprice.com
One other thing to consider on commodities prices including hydrocarbon, is most of them still value in USD. Thus stonger USD will imcrease the costs in local currencies, eventough the price in USD still the same or even slightly lower.
Consumers outside collective west (which Euro Zone fall under it), already increase the deal outside USD. Even big producers like Saudi willing to do it, let alone Russia. However big question mark whether Euro Zone willing to do it.
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I think nobody has claimed Europe will be able to "comfortably" decouple from Russia. Clearly it is very expensive and will be very expensive still. However, given the Russian invasion, followed by massive war crimes, threats of nukes and dirty bombs, etc. etc. Europe simply has no choice, it has to decouple from Russia. Not decoupling means that Russia may be able to blackmail Europe also in the future. Some things are more important than money. Europe must stand united against the greatest threat since the USSR invaded and occupied several Eastern European countries. The Euro zone pays for Russia's war in Euros and cents. The Ukrainians pay the price for Russia's war in blood.
In other news, Norway has arrested a Russian spy, posing as a researcher from Brazil: Norway arrests ‘Brazilian researcher’ accused of spying for Russia | Espionage | The Guardian
Norway has also in the last few weeks arrested seven Russians operating drones illegally in Norway. Several drones have been observed nearby airports, oil and gas installations and other critical infrastructure in the last few months.
Norwegian police is normally operating unarmed -- however after an islamist terrorist attack earlier this year the national threat level was increased, and the police was armed. The threat level from islamist terrorists has now been lowered. However, due to the "security situation in Europe" and the need to protect critical infrastructure in Norway, it has been decided that Norwegian police will be armed for another 8 weeks. Midlertidig bevæpning forlenges inntil 8 uker – Politiet.no
Ananda
The Bunker Group
EU leadership in Brussels is clearly wants to 'decoupling' from Russia. This economics/trade war with Russia will result on that. Eurozone can not dictate what they want Russia to give and what Russia can not have, without realizing it's in the end result on complete decoupling. It is delusional thinking otherwise.
Like I already posted in this thread for sometime, decoupling will be expensive and cost much for 'both' sides. Early Euro zone leadership talk that seems indicating the trade war only going to cost Russia is delusional. The market already knows that, thus why from beginning of the war they already see Both Euro Zone and Russian economics growth will be hard hit by next year. The projection from Moody's that I put sometimes ago in this thread (on beginning of invasion) already predicted. By the development so far even their down trend projection seems going to be sound optimistic.
Those who can say that are the ones that their wallet still can afford the cost of living thrust, cause by this trade war. Let's see how the average constituents in Euro zone fell on that. After all unlike Russians, Euro-zone constituents can push that on ballots.
Whether this potential changes in ballots can change Euro Zone stance toward Russia, remain to be seen. One thing for sure not everyone in Euro Zone has similar stance toward Russia in this war.
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice”…
ecfr.eu
Vladislav Inozemtsev a very prominent Moscow economist has released a paper in Moscow stating the mobilization will send the Russian economy into a heavy recession he also referred to a "bald dwarf" making these decisions
Russia's economy will 'die by winter' as Putin now at 'final countdown' | World | News | Express.co.uk
Russia's economy will 'die by winter' as Putin now at 'final countdown' | World | News | Express.co.uk
The Netherlands could fill most of the shortfall in gas supplies from Groningen. It'd have to force it through against the wishes of 22,000 householders whose houses will be affected by earth movement, but compensating them generously would be easily affordable. The gas would still be cheap, by current standards.European gas slumps below €100 for first time since Russia cut supplies
Mild weather and large amounts of fuel on storage have helped reduce prices
It will be too soon saying that Euro zone already able to comfortably decoupling from Russian gas. The question remain:
1. How the winter whether going to be. If it is mild, then it will benefit Euro reserve. If harsh winter, then some other arragement even back to Russia has to be comsider.
2. Next year Gas supply still needed to be find to really replace Russian Gas. This year reserve still take advantage of Russian supply at least the firsr half of the year. Next year, Euro need to find other sources to really replace Russian supply. One thing for sure, it will cost Euro zone more.
Either way, wherever they source it, cheap Gas Price is seems thing of the past. Especially for Euro Zone.
Ukraine's vast untapped gas reserves lined up to supply energy to Europe
Country in talks with American drilling companies to bring its resources to the marketwww.telegraph.co.uk
There's question why Ukraine don't do gas exploration from begining. Talk on war even the civil war before invasion for me is not the reason. The reason simply why invest on Ukraine gas, when Russian gas is cheaper. While new Investment for this 'supposedly' big Ukranian reserve will be high.
... .
Ukraine's gas exploration has been handicapped by the location of the reserves. Many of the big fields are in the Black Sea, south, & east. Russia has made exploitation difficult.
Interesting interview with British Ambassador to the then USSR who was UK Ambassador in Moscow when the USSR fell. He talks about Putin, his use of Russian history, and how Russians view the world. The comment that most got me was the one where he spoke about the Russian Orthodox Church and it's anti Roman Catholic dogma.
So far the European unity has been surprisingly strong. This unity may eventually start to fracture. However, even if it does, Ukraine is far from lost. Looking at European countries that have signaled they will support Ukraine with military aid long-term and also having strong popular support for Ukraine, they include: Poland, the Baltics, Slovakia, Czechia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK. These countries have a cumulative GDP of 6.6 trillion USD (IMF estimates), larger than the Japanese or Germany economy, and much larger than the Russian economy of course.One thing for sure not everyone in Euro Zone has similar stance toward Russia in this war.
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice”…
We will never give up.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
We won’t continue to use Groningen gas field, says Rutte
www.euractiv.com
I have few cousins in Netherlands, couple of them already married with Dutch citizens. Good luck on trying to change Dutch minds. Especially when they are already set their mind to. Anyway the problem is to replace average 130-140 bcm gas supply from Russia.
It is doable but going to be more expensive and need further Investment on supply lines. It will not be same on getting relative cheaper Russian gas anymore.
Yes, then it is going to be either Gulf or North American supply lines. North Africa Gas will not be enough. So unless total capitulation of Russian happened, no more Gas from East Europe lines. Thus back to higher price tag of Hydrocarbons.
Let's see what happens when the trade wars getting higher costs to average constituents. Many people talk money not everything. Perhaps it is market mentality of mine (thus capitalist mind set), in the end it is always economics, thus money is the main thing in this present World.
Talking on how much bigger collective west economies size toward Russia is moot thing. This kind of arguments that Collective West leadership and their pundits sell to their public. "Don't worries, we are much stronger economically then Russia". "Russia will crumble, we are going to be fine". Again something that collective market players even in West already warned otherwise. Now the costs is coming, then the same politicians now try to deflect the blame to the market.
Let see how much the pintch going to be fell by average constituents. If they still managed well, then Politicians will not be push to other direction. If not, well that's different results can come.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
1. Ukraine has, as of yesterday, switched tune from criticizing Israel over alleged lack of support to admitting cooperation and thanking Israel for support.
www.timesofisrael.com
2. The supposed "positive trend" is reportedly due to intel sharing, however reports of intel sharing came in weeks before this sudden change, and when Zelensky was still in the middle of his political campaign vs Israel.
3. Reports and evidence of Israeli weapons in Ukraine preceded even that.
4. As said previously, the central factor in Israel's calculus (on this topic) is Russia's leverage on Israel, e.g. Jewish population in Russia, sale of weapons and nuclear tech to Iran, Russia-Iran defense cooperation, etc etc. Said leverage is in a downward trend, and has been for much of the war.
6. According to several military and political analysts that were interviewed (in a Hebrew podcast, so no link to share, sorry), Zelensky's goal may have been to shame Israel into providing air defenses later on (or even when the war ends), rather than immediately, with at least one of the factors being Ukraine's acknowledgement that Iron Dome and other systems cannot be realistically provided in any time frame that would qualify as "immediate" or "shortly". The process might realistically take over a year if the decision is made today.
- For those who understand the Israeli defense establishment's MO, it's needless to say that both options are not very good.
- The former alienates Israelis and reduces public support for lethal aid to Ukraine during a peak in public debate and amid elections, and the latter brings what is naturally covert activity to the public view.
Zelensky hails ‘positive trend’ in Israel ties after intel sharing on Iranian drones
'After a long pause, I see us moving forward,' Ukrainian president says of relations with Jerusalem, which he has strongly criticized for not supplying air defense systems
www.timesofisrael.com
2. The supposed "positive trend" is reportedly due to intel sharing, however reports of intel sharing came in weeks before this sudden change, and when Zelensky was still in the middle of his political campaign vs Israel.
3. Reports and evidence of Israeli weapons in Ukraine preceded even that.
4. As said previously, the central factor in Israel's calculus (on this topic) is Russia's leverage on Israel, e.g. Jewish population in Russia, sale of weapons and nuclear tech to Iran, Russia-Iran defense cooperation, etc etc. Said leverage is in a downward trend, and has been for much of the war.
- Utility of Israeli military aid to Ukraine, as well as the benefit of cooperation for both, have also been decreasing as the war progressed, but with Iran's quick entry to the conflict, this trend reversed.
- And so, it seems that with benefit to Israel growing, and Russian leverage reducing, the trend is indeed increased support, and it seems the publicly observed Israeli course of action is matching the trend almost mathematically.
6. According to several military and political analysts that were interviewed (in a Hebrew podcast, so no link to share, sorry), Zelensky's goal may have been to shame Israel into providing air defenses later on (or even when the war ends), rather than immediately, with at least one of the factors being Ukraine's acknowledgement that Iron Dome and other systems cannot be realistically provided in any time frame that would qualify as "immediate" or "shortly". The process might realistically take over a year if the decision is made today.
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I don't think Zelenskys Israeli issues are that unique or special and probably won't burn him. He is trying to muster as much support from as many areas as possible. I would say Israel has been more erratic defence partner than Ukraine, which has been very consistant and is actually facing an existential threat. It was only a few years ago Israel was threatening war with... New Zealand.
www.rnz.co.nz
AFAIK every western power seems quite confident in Zelenskys administration and leadership and understand that he is trying to do the best in very difficult conditions.
Israel's Iron dome would be ideal for their {Ukraine's) situation, but realistically, no one actually expects Israel to pack all of their systems up and leave Israel completely open to attack. Israel I think is a bit cautious in supporting Ukraine, because it doesn't want to give any thing away for free and is mindful of the market opportunities and doesn't want to limit those. Israel isn't in NATO. Israel's economy isn't as large as the US or Germany or even smaller European countries, so big expensive systems would be one hell of a huge gift. Israel is still somewhat dependant on military aid/gifts/deals/support from the US. Also, if Israel does one thing, then often many of its surrounding nations do the opposite just on principle. IE: Its complicated.
Ukraine is quickly ending up a proxy war for everyone. As weapon systems from both sides are acquired and deployed.
Israel is probably a bit unclear where they sit within this bigger scope and their role in it. Unlike many other countries, Israel would also argue it also faces immediate threats and attacks unlike say Germany or France, both of which have argued they don't want to deplete their stocks or weapon systems.
Is New Zealand at war with Israel now?
Analysis: The New Zealand-sponsored resolution to ban Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories had the makings of an episode of The Real Housewives of the UN, says Mohamed Hassan.
www.rnz.co.nz
AFAIK every western power seems quite confident in Zelenskys administration and leadership and understand that he is trying to do the best in very difficult conditions.
Israel's Iron dome would be ideal for their {Ukraine's) situation, but realistically, no one actually expects Israel to pack all of their systems up and leave Israel completely open to attack. Israel I think is a bit cautious in supporting Ukraine, because it doesn't want to give any thing away for free and is mindful of the market opportunities and doesn't want to limit those. Israel isn't in NATO. Israel's economy isn't as large as the US or Germany or even smaller European countries, so big expensive systems would be one hell of a huge gift. Israel is still somewhat dependant on military aid/gifts/deals/support from the US. Also, if Israel does one thing, then often many of its surrounding nations do the opposite just on principle. IE: Its complicated.
Ukraine is quickly ending up a proxy war for everyone. As weapon systems from both sides are acquired and deployed.
Israel is probably a bit unclear where they sit within this bigger scope and their role in it. Unlike many other countries, Israel would also argue it also faces immediate threats and attacks unlike say Germany or France, both of which have argued they don't want to deplete their stocks or weapon systems.
Israel has an interest to keep Moscow from furthering their relationship with Tehran but it is a tricky balance because both Tehran and Moscow has a direct lever in Israel's security landscape (via Syria and Hezbollah)
Militarily, unlike France, UK or Poland, Israeli needs to maintain their strategic stockpiles simply because it is geographical surrounded by Arab countries, peace treaty or not. But intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, these are capabilities they can provide without affecting their own needs
Militarily, unlike France, UK or Poland, Israeli needs to maintain their strategic stockpiles simply because it is geographical surrounded by Arab countries, peace treaty or not. But intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, these are capabilities they can provide without affecting their own needs
Intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare is also less visible compared to actual hardware.
Ultimately it's politics; Israel has to draw a fine line between supplying the Ukraine with hardware and maintaining a certain level of ties with Russia. It's this reason rather than the need to not deplete stockpiles.
Last Friday's UN resolution on Combating glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazisim etc etc was a farce.
Yes, Russia proposed this resolution and there are legitimate concerns that it is just cover to justify the invasion. But at the same time, the content of the resolution does not explicitly mention Ukraine and it makes it difficult for a number of countries to vote against it.
Israel voted for it (can't see how could vote against this), allies in Asia who voted for resolutions to condemn Russia voted for it (e.g Philippines, Singapore), while S. Korea and Switzerland abstained.
Yes, Russia proposed this resolution and there are legitimate concerns that it is just cover to justify the invasion. But at the same time, the content of the resolution does not explicitly mention Ukraine and it makes it difficult for a number of countries to vote against it.
Israel voted for it (can't see how could vote against this), allies in Asia who voted for resolutions to condemn Russia voted for it (e.g Philippines, Singapore), while S. Korea and Switzerland abstained.