The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Jul 24, 2022

vonnoobie said:
Russia, Ukraine sign UN-backed grain export deal

If the news article is correct (Havent found the agreement its self, Just a ton of news articles which clogs the search up ugh) then the ports arent meant to be attacked which puts Russian forces squarly in the wrong however it does get a bit murky..

Ukraine according to liveuamap.com claims to have detected 4 Kalibre missiles, shot down 2 and 2 struck the port however according the Turkish defence officials as per a bbc.com article Russia denies they carried out the attack and are 'examining the issue' very closely....

Twain said:
Well russia is going down the same path they have used over and over.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550868233275772928

denying they launched any missiles at odessa

next will come one or more of the following

Ukraine launched missiles at themselves as a false flag
We targeted a military asset
there were military assets in the general area
Ukraine shot it down and it only hit there because of the Ukrainians

Take the kramatorsk excuses and just insert Odessa

What russia did do is sign an agreement guaranteeing safe passage of ships to 3 ports. Then what they did was muddy the waters by hitting something at least directly adjacent, if not part of the grain terminal. Reports vary if they hit a large grain bin or just near it.

What the result will be is that ship owners will be reluctant to send ships to any ukrainian port and insurers will either not offer insurance or it will be exorbitantly high. Again, why would anyone trust any agreement russia signed is beyond me.

Interesting and strange. The targets included some port structures and some Ukrainian navy vessels. I don't see why they would deny it. It's not particularly different from any other Russian strikes recently. I don't think this will scuttle the deal. I think the Turks will expect Russia to allow the ships in and out unmolested, and that will be that. If Russia fails to deliver, their problem will be with their relations with Turkey.

vonnoobie · Jul 24, 2022

Feanor said:
Interesting and strange. The targets included some port structures and some Ukrainian navy vessels. I don't see why they would deny it. It's not particularly different from any other Russian strikes recently. I don't think this will scuttle the deal. I think the Turks will expect Russia to allow the ships in and out unmolested, and that will be that. If Russia fails to deliver, their problem will be with their relations with Turkey.

Apperantly some of the infrastructure damage was to the grain handling terminal. Can not exactly admit "We launched missiles to take out 1 or more minor craft that are of zero strategic value or threat to our operation knowingly risking damage to the grain handling facilities in one of the 3 ports we just signed an agreement to not attack... Woops"

It wont scuttle the deal and luckily the damage was not severe so wont impact grain exports but I imagine Turkey will not be happy even more so because they have put their name down on this deal, Means they have skin in it now and will not be happy if Russian actions risks risks the Turkish gaurantee.

ngatimozart · Jul 24, 2022

STURM said:
It has less to do with trust than with necessity. There is no way any grain can be shipped out without Russian cooperation and agreement unless NATO is wiling to deploy naval assets to the Black Sea.

NATO cannot deploy any naval assets from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea because the Turks have banned the transit of any naval vessels through the Bosphorus Straits. They have claimed that they are allowed to do this under the 1936 Montreux Convention regarding the Régime of Straits [of the Bosphorus], page 215 in the link. Articles 18 (p. 223) and 19 (p. 225) apply and at any time non Black Sea navies are allowed no more than 45,000 tons of aggregate tonnage and be in the sea for no longer than a period of 21 days.

Ananda · Jul 24, 2022

ngatimozart said:
NATO cannot deploy any naval assets from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea because the Turks have banned the transit of any naval vessels through the Bosphorus Straits.

Technically for example Rumanian fleet is part of NATO and they are still in Black fleet. However even if somehow Turkiye let them (non NATO Black Sea members) fleet pass, they're not going to enter any Ukraine still hold ports, without any sort of agreement with Russia anyway.

Turkiye fleet more likely will help monitor the grain ships traffic, and basically they're part of NATO's fleet. So Sultan Erdo now shown more to NATO Western allies, "you need me".

Put Patrick Lancaster video as this's the video that shown latest condition of Bridge on Kherson. Off course as part of Pro Russian channel (even tough claim to be independent), this part of Russian showing that Ukraine HIMARS attack is only make slight damage to the Bridge, it is still open to commercial traffic, and Russia has abilities to handle HIMARS threat. Thus HIMARS not really game changing assets as West told in their media.

Will be interesting if any Western Mainstream media going to put commentators that going to repute that claim.

HIMARS 'Game Changer' in Ukraine War, Russia 'in Dire Shape': Ex-General

The White House included four more HIMARS—High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems—in a military aid package announced Friday.

www.newsweek.com

Seems it is not taking that long.

Twain · Jul 24, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550849428046725120

It's like Ukrainian artillery is showing off

, a hit every 10 meters all in the same lane leaving one lane open. Not all that different from the Antonovskiy bridge near Kherson. Damaged but still usable. They obviously could have taken out both bridges but chose not to. It does leave the bridges still usable to Ukraine at a later date and it may set conditions for several things.

Russian supply convoys getting backed up much like the 40 km convoy to nowhere north of Kiev?
A choke point in case the russians try to retreat across them?
Isolate portions of the russian army to prevent mutual support?

I'm really curious where UAF is headed with this and it's not entirely clear.

BTW it looks like the road on the dam upstream is damaged at the moment but is being repaired

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551105638213849088

Wonder how severely russian supplies are being affected

Feanor · Jul 24, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strikes land in Nikolaev. Allegedly it was a munitions dump hit by a Tornado-S munition.

Военкор Котенок

Последствия сегодняшнего удара по украинскому складу боеприпасов в Николаеве. @voenkorKotenok

t.me

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