Russia - General Discussion.

[KiwiRob]

It is an important principle, supported by most small and also many medium sized countries.

In Europe one has worked hard to honor this principle. Norway decided to not join EU -- this choice was respected by EU, and peaceful negotiations led to agreements that both parties benefit from. Sweden decided to not join NATO -- this choice was respected by NATO. The UK decided to leave EU. This choice was respected by EU, and peaceful negotiations led to a "divorce" that both parties agreed upon.

I fully agree that we should work harder to limit unwanted meddling in other affairs also from the US and others. The same rules should apply to all. The excuse that "somebody is doing bad things therefore I can also do bad things" is however a horrible excuse.

Also not sure why you refer to Ukraine as "special" -- the reason why the Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, etc. all wanted to join NATO was to reduce the potential for Russia to drag those countries back into Russia's "sphere of influence".

The vote was very close in Norway, IMO not joining the EU was about as big a mistake as the UK leaving the EU. The no campaign was mostly based on lies and fear that Norway would lose its oil.

 

[KiwiRob]

Both parties in this $hitshow are wrong but one party is wrong to a much greater extent. Hopefully it can be ended soon. However, sanctions must remain.

Sanctions don’t cost Canadians and Americans, they do cost Europeans. It will cost Europeans even more when they are forced into buying more expensive American shale gas, and someone will also have to pay for the dozens of new LNG carriers which will be needed to transport the gas across the Atlantic. The Korean, Chinese and Japanese yards will be happy, they are very complex and highly expensive ships to build.

 

[KiwiRob]

That's apple and orange situation. The problem right now is the imbalance in Hydrocarbon market due to disruption of sanction. Any Imbalance in market due to disruption in the market especially cause by Political action, will result on shifting rebalancing on Supply and Demand sources.

This is simple market mechanism.

The same thing happened when Russia sanctioned Norwegian salmon in 2014, Norway increased its exports to Belorussia and it was trucked across the border. You could still get Norwegian salmon in Russian supermarkets.

 

[InterestedParty]

Surely, for a country that relies on being seen as a reliable supplier of energy in various forms, the long term effect of this "blackmail" will drive Russia's customers to find a reliable and politically stable supplier.

 

[John Fedup]

Sanctions don’t cost Canadians and Americans, they do cost Europeans. It will cost Europeans even more when they are forced into buying more expensive American shale gas, and someone will also have to pay for the dozens of new LNG carriers which will be needed to transport the gas across the Atlantic. The Korean, Chinese and Japanese yards will be happy, they are very complex and highly expensive ships to build.

The other option is for Europe to bend over and take up where the sun doesn’t shine. Better to pay more now and accelerate green alternatives. Had it not been for fracking, alternative energy would likely be further advanced tha it is now. Ironically the Ukraine situation may speed awareness on the future energy pathway. Won’t be be popular, I really like my big block stern drive, 20 foot boat, sucking back 100 plus litres at 4,500 rpm.

 

[Ananda]

Interesting comments from an Israel financial analyst on US Politicians behaviour that want to sanctions anyone that doing dedollarisation including to trade with Russia. Basically he put US Politicians just like petulant kids that threatening anyone who wants to reduce dollar, while not realising that action will increase dedollarisation.

If that happen, how US want to continue financing increasing deficits? US is one country that basically can ask other countries to finance its deficits by buying US treasury Bonds. This is just like warning that many market analysts including in US warned (as I also have put before). USD dominance not only due to US economics size, but mostly due to trust on US lead financial market system. Using USD as political weapons will increase the rate for USD distrust and ultimately dedollarisation rate in International trade.

Goldman Sachs warns the dollar is at risk of losing its dominance, and could end up a lesser player like the UK pound

A note from Goldman Sachs is the latest sign investors are concerned about risks to the dollar's global dominance.

markets.businessinsider.com

Similar warning for Goldman Sachs. Keep continue politisise USD, keep threatening others by using USD sanctions. Then it will be come back to hit USD.

Basically what market say, you want sactions some one else trade, do it. However don't use USD as part of that too much to others that want to trade. You are only increase the distrust on USD systems. USD is huge financial ecosystem that since end of WW2 increasingly globalise by Nature. All mostly base on trust USD safety for Interational transaction. Take bit of that, and USD will lose its status by time from dominant currencies to just one of big currencies in Global Trade busket.

If that happen, how US will keep selling USD to other central banks on this current rate ? More importantly how US going to finance its deficits on this current level ? It is going to hit US abilities to finance its military on present level for one thing.

Yes, it will not in near future. However it will increase the rate.

 

[Ananda]

Slovak minister says paying in roubles could be an option as country needs gas

The economy minister of Slovakia, which relies on Russian gas for around 85% of its demand, said the country could not be cut off from Russian gas flows and if it had to pay in roubles it would, although it backed taking a common European Union stance. Russia has demanded payment for gas in...

finance.yahoo.com

Slovak say, that they will pay Roubles if they have to, as they have to get those Russian Gas.

Hungary will not support sanctions on Russia covering oil, gas imports: Premier

Hungary buys most of its oil and natural gas from Russia, says Viktor Orban - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Hungarian Orban has been known that they will keep buying Russian Hydrocarbon no matter what. Citing Russian Hydrocarbon is essential for Hungarian economic survival.

What Hungary's Election Result Means for Putin

The war in Ukraine overtook domestic problems as a key election issue

time.com

With he's winning another term against opposition rival that's want (one other thing) for Hunggary cut Russian Hydrocarbon (in his canpaign) and more involve in supporting Ukraine.

This bit sometime ago, on Qatar Minister that saying, replacing Russian Gas (and overall Russian Hydrocarbon) will need take time. From what he explaint it will take years to build.

The capacities and infrastructure need to build and moreover Qatar them selves can't doit. Since most of Qatar gas already lock in to Asian customers, also need several combination of suppliers to replace Russian.

In short, this is the explanation on points I have put in this threads before. Some Eastern Eurozone can't afford to move away from Russian Hydrocarbon. Those who can afford must pay higher price and Investment. Plus the existing suppliers already have their own capacities taken by other customers (mostly in Asia).

So if those Asian customers did not shift to Russian Hydrocarbon (perhaps due to not getting enough discount price or other costs), then many in Europe will have to stick with Russian. Cause in the end the supply more or less finite.

Off course some of the more 'prosperous' Euro Zone can go and try outbid the Asians. However don't think all of less prosperous Euro zone can do it. This is why what Brussels talk tough, will bw questionable can be implemented all.

 

[T.C.P]

Slovak minister says paying in roubles could be an option as country needs gas

The economy minister of Slovakia, which relies on Russian gas for around 85% of its demand, said the country could not be cut off from Russian gas flows and if it had to pay in roubles it would, although it backed taking a common European Union stance. Russia has demanded payment for gas in...

finance.yahoo.com

Slovak say, that they will pay Roubles if they have to, as they have to get those Russian Gas.

Hungary will not support sanctions on Russia covering oil, gas imports: Premier

Hungary buys most of its oil and natural gas from Russia, says Viktor Orban - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Hungarian Orban has been known that they will keep buying Russian Hydrocarbon no matter what. Citing Russian Hydrocarbon is essential for Hungarian economic survival.

What Hungary's Election Result Means for Putin

The war in Ukraine overtook domestic problems as a key election issue

time.com

With he's winning another term against opposition rival that's want (one other thing) for Hunggary cut Russian Hydrocarbon (in his canpaign) and more involve in supporting Ukraine.

Off course some of the more 'prosperous' Euro Zone can go and try outbid the Asians. However don't think all of less prosperous Euro zone can do it. This is why what Brussels talk tough, will bw questionable can be implemented all.

This is what will happen to us and I have no idea what we are going to do. We get our gas from Qatar and Oman and last winter we already had to pay outrageuous prices, now the rich will probably come in and take our gas supplies from us.

It will all depend on how they react when we look to Russia to replace the ME source, if they start to bad mouth us in the media for looking to russia for gas, then I have some choice words for them that will probably get me banned from this site. Here is me hoping that they are mature enough to realize that we need gas and we will get it from who ever will sell it to us.

 

[Ananda]

will all depend on how they react when we look to Russia to replace the ME source, if they start to bad mouth us in the media for looking to russia for gas, then I have some choice words for them that will probably get me banned from this site. Here is me hoping that they are mature enough to realize that we need gas and we will get it from who ever will sell it to us.

That's what I put on some posts ago in this thread. It is very unreasonable from some Politicians in the West to hindered some other countries to go to Russia for Hydrocarbon supplies. If they (Eurozone) goes to existing suppliers in ME, most of the contracts already set to Asian customers. If they then outbid the contracts, then the (mostly) less prosperous Asian will go to Russia for finding more bargain prices (with Russian will do as they try also to get new customers). Is just matter shifting on the market. This adjustments will take this part of 2-3 years.

Even they can not expect some in Eurozone (especialy in less prosperous part of Eurozone), for not still go with Russian, as getting supply from Middle East basically will be more expensive. If some in West (or their Allies) want to decouple from Russia, well that's their choices. However don't expect other part of the world doing that. Cause the resources available in the market more or less is finite. By some decoupling from Russia, then it is make the market shift, and new balance will happen.

So, Russian resources can not be expected to be excluded from Global market. The one that want to do it will only enlarge the Trade War, from just Russia to probably other parts of Asia.

 

[Ananda]

Putin’s Windfall

Hello. Today we look at how oil revenues are still pouring into Russia, what’s happening in the world economy this week and one way President Joe Biden could restrain inflation.

www.bloomberg.com

This Article quite interesting to point out, that Hydrocarbon is the main life line for Russia in time of deep sanctions. For me, it is the main life line but also has to include Russia other resources (eventough will not be as big as Hydrocarbon).

Now, the article point out that even with Russia keep selling Oil and Gas. However effect on sanction in its economy will going to increase their inflation to the point of reccesion.

For me, I'm bit carefull to read some business articles from US and UK. Whether Bloomberg, WSJ, The Economist, as clear they are also playing to US and UK effort to justified sanctions to Russia. Thus the questions is, if the numbers reflecting the real economics situation in the ground.

Global recession after two years of Covid now being told going to happen again due to energy crisis resulting due to Ukraine war. However for me, Ukraine war timing happen on top production value chain problem that arrise by second half of last year already. From semi conductor crisis and now to energi crisis.

Production value chain crisis is mostly due to production capacity build up that lagging after COVID. Thus it will take time to rebuild, but market will adjust. However energy crisis come due to trade war, thus non market factor as more to geopolitical.

Thus any non market factor will take market harder to adjust. However it is also noted even by Bloomberg that non market/geopolitical factor can be worsen or not depends on how many countries/markets will want to participate in that geopolitical actions.

That's for me will be back to real adjustment that going to fell by each economy. In the end economy that being fell by ordinary citizens in the ground can affect direction how the sanctions will be follow.

Add:

Dimon says confluence of inflation, Ukraine war may 'dramatically increase risks ahead' for U.S.

Jamie Dimon's annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders, read widely in business circles, took a more downcast tone from his missive just last year.

www.cnbc.com

The outcome of these two issues will transcend Russia and likely will affect geopolitics for decades, potentially leading to both a realignment of alliances and a restructuring of global trade. How the West comports itself, and whether the West can maintain its unity, will likely determine the future global order and shape America’s (and its allies’) important relationship with China.”

It also is clear that trade and supply chains, where they affect matters of national security, need to be restructured. You simply cannot rely on countries with different strategic interests for critical goods and services. Such reorganization does not need to be a disaster or decoupling. With thoughtful analysis and execution, it should be rational and orderly. This is in It also is clear that trade and supply chains, where they affect matters of national security, need to be restructured. You simply cannot rely on countries with different strategic interests for critical goods and services. Such reorganization does not need to be a disaster or decoupling. With thoughtful analysis and execution, it should be rational and orderly. This is in everyone’s best interest.”

This is article from JP Morgan CEO. Bit different from coloumnist or journalists even in market focus media, the market practisioners tend talk more realistically. The two quotes that I put above shown what many in market (including my self put in this thread), that what ever happen as the result in ground war, on matter of global trade shifting going to happen.

What some political analysts predict on bipolar or multipolar geostrategical realities, means that changing production supply chain will happen to secure the resources supply. General consumption goods perhaps will not going to be effected much. However more strategical supply chain will be.

Thus this is going to be a problem with Eurozone. Without Russia, Eurozone will not going to have much natural resources. Unless North America (US and Canada perhaps plus Australia) can cover it, then EU potentialy have to relied again with potential suppliers that not going to be in line with EU geopolitical strategy much.

How to make EU more or less indendent on resources or getting the resources for more dependable sources, will be the challange.

 

[Vivendi]

Former president Medvedev has written a message on Telegram, google translated into English:

"Ghost of Kyiv", an image of an aircraft, which is taken from a computer game. A drone shot down by a can of cucumbers. The “dead heroes” who surrendered to the Russian warship. Mariupol maternity hospital, now - Bucha. What unites them? These are fakes, ripened in the cynical imagination of Ukrainian propaganda. Numerous PR agencies, "troll factories" run by Western governments and their "manual" NGOs and NGOs, cook them for huge amounts of money. Day by day, the news about "horror stories" and "overcomes" is becoming more and more delusional. However, the Kyiv fake car stops at nothing! In order to dehumanize Russia and its maximum denigration, the enraged beast from the National Battalions and the Terodefense is ready to casually kill their own civilians. This is because deep Ukrainianism, fueled by anti-Russian poison and all-consuming lies about its identity, is one big fake. This phenomenon has never happened in history. And now it doesn't exist. Leipzig University professor Oskar Peschel issued the legendary phrase, later attributed to Chancellor Otto von Bismarck: "The Austro-Prussian War of 1866 was won by a Prussian schoolteacher." German militarism was cultivated at the desks. His spirit at the end of his journey was reborn into the monster of National Socialism and was eventually destroyed only by the Red Army in 1945. High German science and culture - Roentgen, Planck, Freud, Mann, Hesse - could not oppose anything to those who thirsted first for blood and colonies, and after the First World War - revenge and "living space" in the East. And if the great German minds failed to curb the war machine, what can we say about today's Kyiv - there are definitely no "Einsteins" there. True, there is Klitschko. The current Ukrainian radical also grew up behind the student bench. In beautiful embroidered shirts and with thoughts of hatred for everything Russian. Instead of being proud of the joint achievements of their ancestors, since 1991, a pseudo-history of Ukrainian statehood has been written “on the knee”: the generational connection of Kievan Rus with the lands of Novgorod, Pskov and Vladimir-Suzdal Rus was “hacked”. For the sake of the mythical "history of Ukraine" of the XIV-XVII centuries, the idea of a single Russian people was destroyed. The gallery of the 20th century is generally composed only of zoological Nazis, murderers and collaborators, elevated by the modern Ukrainian "agitprop" to the rank of heroes - Konovalets, Shukhevych, Bandera, Klyachkovsky, Melnyk. The passionate part of Ukrainians has been praying for the Third Reich for the last 30 years. Literally. Disgust is caused by photographs in which Nazi symbols are found in almost every military unit of Ukraine taken by our army - standards, literature, posters. Even cups with swastikas! This is not a game of fascist aesthetics, as Westerners are trying to prove to us. This is an ideology. One should not be surprised that mentally transformed into the Third Reich, having written down the names of Jews and Nazi henchmen in history books, Ukraine will suffer its own fate. There she is dear, such Ukraine! As well as individual freaks who consider themselves entitled to represent such Ukraine. A lesson for them will be not only the current special operation, but also episodes of the glorious past. For example, when Pavel Sudoplatov destroyed the nationalist Yevgen Konovalets, politely handing over to this sweet lover in Rotterdam a candy box with a bomb inside - "Here's a present for you from Kiev." There will be many more such "gifts" for Nazi criminals! Russian President Vladimir Putin firmly set the goal of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. These complex tasks do not happen all at once. And they will be decided not only on the battlefields. To change the bloody and full of false myths consciousness of a part of today's Ukrainians is the most important goal. The goal is for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians themselves and the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia - from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

Telegram: Contact @medvedev_telegram

A lot of stuff here to comment on -- he is denying the massacre in Bucha, he refers to Ukrainians as Nazis, he says they don't have their own identity. All these are lies that have been debunked already. The claims about "anti-Russian poison" and hatred for "everything Russian" is very interesting. Previously Putin talked about the "brothers" in Ukraine, which was actually closer to the truth, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, and vice versa. They used to be close and have good relationship between each other. The issue they had was mainly with Putin. However, now with Russian soldiers in Ukraine looting, torturing, raping and killing civilians, things are probably changing. I suspect that the longer Russia keeps going, the more hatred Ukrainians will feel against their "brothers" in Russia. Could that be part of the reason why the Russian soldiers are committing these war crimes? To build hatred, so that they later on can claim "see, we told you so, they hate us!".

The last sentence sounds very ominous -- is he really hinting at "denazification" all the way to Lisbon? Not sure how he would "denazify" NATO countries though.

Also interesting the things he does not say -- he does not mention the "threat" of NATO for instance, which previously seemed to be a major issue for Putin before the invasion. Now it's mainly about Nazis.

On a positive note, he does not repeat the lies about Ukraine developing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, which is good because such lies would typically precede any Russian false flag operations -- perhaps that is for another Telegram message?

 

[ngatimozart]

Former president Medvedev has written a message on Telegram, google translated into English:



Telegram: Contact @medvedev_telegram

A lot of stuff here to comment on -- he is denying the massacre in Bucha, he refers to Ukrainians as Nazis, he says they don't have their own identity. All these are lies that have been debunked already. The claims about "anti-Russian poison" and hatred for "everything Russian" is very interesting. Previously Putin talked about the "brothers" in Ukraine, which was actually closer to the truth, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, and vice versa. They used to be close and have good relationship between each other. The issue they had was mainly with Putin. However, now with Russian soldiers in Ukraine looting, torturing, raping and killing civilians, things are probably changing. I suspect that the longer Russia keeps going, the more hatred Ukrainians will feel against their "brothers" in Russia. Could that be part of the reason why the Russian soldiers are committing these war crimes? To build hatred, so that they later on can claim "see, we told you so, they hate us!".

The last sentence sounds very ominous -- is he really hinting at "denazification" all the way to Lisbon? Not sure how he would "denazify" NATO countries though.

Also interesting the things he does not say -- he does not mention the "threat" of NATO for instance, which previously seemed to be a major issue for Putin before the invasion. Now it's mainly about Nazis.

On a positive note, he does not repeat the lies about Ukraine developing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, which is good because such lies would typically precede any Russian false flag operations -- perhaps that is for another Telegram message?

Of course they are going to deny anything like Bucha and elsewhere. They'll deny and lie until hell freezes over and then past that.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

That's what I thought; not just Soviet era designed ones.

Of course. But Soviet tanks have horrible post-penetration protection. Situations where 1-2 crewmen would be killed in a western tank, turn into a catastrophic kill of all crewmen and probably anyone close enough nearby, in a Soviet tank.

 

[STURM]

Of course. But Soviet tanks have horrible post-penetration protection. Situations where 1-2 crewmen would be killed in a western tank, turn into a catastrophic kill of all crewmen and probably anyone close enough nearby, in a Soviet tank.

Largely due to unprotected ammo and charges stored in the turret and hull; as well as a low baseline protection level. The Armata I believe is intended to rectify various shortcomings; for one it has a bustle loader and if I'm not mistaken ammo and charges aren't placed unprotected.

 

[Ananda]

West Set To ‘Swap’ 650,000 Bpd Russian Oil With Developing Asia | OilPrice.com

Wood Mackenzie sees part of the Russian crude typically purchased in the West being replaced by buyers from developing importers such as India and China

oilprice.com

Switching of the market already begin to taking shape. Some Asians attracting to Russians Crude due to discounts. However being contractual bind to Middle East producers, they can not take it much. Seems some in Eurozone and allies want to take over that contracts, thus enable some Asians customers to goes with cheaper Russian crude.

That's why market in the end will make adjustment.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel might adjust its policy vs Russia, likely because it deal regarding Iran and Ukraine is causing PR damage.
Report came in that Israel is considering sending personal protective equipment like flak jackets and protective vests to Ukraine.

Israel is very unlikely to get into lethal aid but still worth mentioning:

Israel mulling sending protective vests, flak jackets to Ukraine — report

Jerusalem has avoided aligning with either side since Russian troops invaded, though Kyiv has repeatedly asked for defensive military equipment

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Ananda]

US to 'boycott' G20 meetings if Russian officials participate: US

US president Joe Biden wants to push Russia out of active participation in major international institutions, Yellen also said

www.hindustantimes.com

It is getting interesting, but not unpredictable. US want Russia out from G20, China shown support for Russia still in.

Yellen says Russia should be expelled from G20, U.S. may boycott some meetings

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that Russia should be expelled from the Group of 20 major economies forum, and the United States will boycott some G20 meetings if Russian officials show up.

www.reuters.com

Indonesia possition still that as rotating presidency holder, Indonesia must put invitation for all members. Exclusions of one member has no precedent.

Thus again this will come back toward who has bigger clout internationally. However potentially I can see two set different meeting and photo shoot out. Between those with US, Those with China and Russia, and those in the middle going back and forth between two different meeting. Will be fun to look at.

 

[Vivendi]

Martti J. Kari is a former Finnish intelligence colonel and currently teaches cybersecurity at the University of Jyväskylä. He has spent several decades studying Russia, and a lecture he gave in 2018. Quite interesting if you want to understand the "Russian Mindset".

On youtube (English subtitles): Tiedustelueverstin arvio Venäjästä | 3.12.2018 - YouTube

If you prefer to read instead of watching a movie, somebody has written down the lecture in English: Finnish Intelligence Officer Explains the Russian Mindset – Ricochet

 

[Vivendi]

Finland is moving closer to a NATO decision:

According to iltalehti, Finland is preparing to apply for NATO membership with an additional entry, which may be submitted by the Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy (SG-Utva) of the President of the Republic and the Government during the parliamentary proceedings.

SG-Utva can therefore hold a meeting under the leadership of The President of the Republic Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Marin, at which Niinistö and Marin will propose that nato membership be applied for membership of the Defence Alliance.

The additional entry is short and merely reflects the fact that the state leadership has decided to apply for NATO membership.

The decision in SG-Utva is preceded by a statement to Niinistö and Marin by a working group of party leaders and chairmen of parliamentary groups that there is a solid parliamentary majority in favour of NATO membership.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Pekka Haavisto (green) confirms iltalehti's information that, if necessary, there is a readiness to prepare a second report if SG-Utva were to propose NATO membership and to submit an increase with the NATO position to Parliament.

A decision will be made soon
IL sources estimate that a decision will be taken in TP-Utva to apply for NATO membership in the first two weeks of May.

However, the decision-making route built by the Government, the President of the Republic, the party leaders and the Bureau of Parliament will enable SG-Utva to make a decision on additional registration, i.e. applying for NATO membership even before May, i.e. during April.

Google translated from: IL information: Finland prepares to apply for NATO membership with additional entry issued by SG-Utva (iltalehti.fi)

Difficult to tell how long the process can take after they apply for membership. According to Norwegian newspaper VG it can take between 4 months and one year. I guess we will see some influencing operations from Russia during that period, combined with various types of threats, including military threats. Finlands utenriksminister: Kan sende Nato-søknad allerede i april – VG Nå: Nyhetsdøgnet

It will be interesting to see how Sweden will react -- most observers believe that also Sweden will join NATO if Finland joins.

 

[Vivendi]

Breaking news: Russia has been suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over Ukraine. Seems that a majority of countries decided to trust "Western media" more than "Russian media"

United Nations suspends Russia from human rights body over Ukraine | Reuters