Afghanistan War

STURM

Well-Known Member
It succeeded in its primary aim : eradicating the AQ presence and overthrowing the Taliban.

Unfortunately the lack of a “what after” with regards to helping build a post Taliban Afghanistan; as well as a list of highly flawed and short sighted decisions (including shifting attention to Iraq at a time when the Talibs were all but defeated and when many Afghans welcomed the presence of outside powers)in the hope it would bring lasting and positive change) eventually led to the present situation.

No I’m suggesting the Afghans are blameless but a lot of decisions undertaken by others played a huge part.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
It seems that more and more people start to worry and even panicking because of the withdrawal of the foreign troops and the zero resistance of the so called Afghan Armed Forces against the taliban. Already some thousands try to move to neighbouring countries to escape the taliban.



 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
the zero resistance of the so called Afghan Armed Forces against the taliban
A major problem for the Afghans is that they have good and not so good units; more of the latter unfortunately.

Already some thousands try to move to neighbouring countries
Something which has occurred on numerous occasions in Afghanistan’s long and turbulent history : civilians fleeing to neighbouring Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran. In this case those fleeing will include not families worried about their safety but also those who previously were associated or affiliated with the Afghan government and foreign troops.

If things really get much worse; I would expect some level of assistance to pour in from certain countries; i.e. during a period when the U.S. was unwilling to supply the Northern Alliance assistance came in from Russia, Iran and India.

Ironically despite their strict interpretation of Islam and a non tolerant ideology (some of which are drawn from Pashtun customs); the Taliban have played a major role curtailing an organisation which has an even stricter and intolerant ideology : IS.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 1

BBC said:
7 Jul 2021 — The Taliban have entered Qala-e-Naw, provincial capital of Badghis province, a key city in western Afghanistan as they continue a rapid advance. All government officials in Qala-e-Naw, had been moved to a nearby army base.

Security forces carried out air strikes to clear militants from Qala-e-Naw, in the western Badghis province, officials said, and special forces were used to remove insurgents from the government buildings they had briefly occupied.
1. On the one hand, America’s flawed exit strategy for the war in Afghanistan in part depended on the ability of:
(a) the Afghan security forces, and critics of the mission view Afghan forces as generally unreliable — ineffectual in combat and too often unmotivated, erratic or corrupt;​
(b) Abdullah Abdullah to work with Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai to lead a unified government for peace talks with the Taliban. Ashraf Ghani, a Western-educated technocrat known for his anti-warlord stance, brought in Abdul Rashid Dostum as his candidate for first vice president – a prominent former army general during the Soviet war in Afghanistan whose base among Uzbeks, is a key source of votes for Ghani, who is a Pashtun. Abdullah – himself half Pashtun, but extensively affiliated with Tajiks – brings with him a broad non-Pashtun constituency; and​
(c) the Biden administration to clean up the mess after Trump, Obama and Bush failures — in fighting this war for 20 years.​

2. On the other hand, Abdul Quayom Rahimi, governor of Logar province, gathered hundreds of men carrying guns and Afghanistan’s tricolour flag in the provincial capital, Pol-e Alam.
(a) While anti-Taliban volunteers had begun to appear in Logar earlier this year, Rahimi said he has had hundreds of Kochi men asking to join his force in recent weeks. Rahimi said the gathering was a “deliberate, public show of strength”. “The people know what is at stake and they want to show the Taliban that even if no one else is around to help, the people of Logar and every province themselves will take the fight directly to them,” he told Al Jazeera.​
(b) Logar with population of 411,845 people (most of whom are former Kochi nomads), consists of 7 districts that encompass 4,410,278 sq km of which 32,693.01 are used for agricultural purposes. The province is best known for producing corn, yogurt and wool. During 2008, Logar produced 31 different crops on 35,602 hectares of land (31% of total area). Most of the cultivated land is located in 5 of the 7 districts, mostly in the western half of the province because of the fertile soil along the Wardak and Maidan Rivers.​

3. Afghanistan has an estimated farming population of 12.1 million people, plus a non-farming rural population of about 2.5 million. Many farmers remain food insecure and with very restricted and risky livelihoods. Consumption of meat, vegetables and fruit is very limited and infrequent, most Afghan farmers are not self-sufficient in cereals and only a minority of them are able to sell any cereal surplus.
(a) A very large proportion of farmers have some off-farm income, mainly wages (61%), and there are extensive (and probably understated) reports of remittances received by about 20% of farmers. Though the Ghorband Valley, located in the southern foothills of Hindu Kush, 120km (74 miles) north of capital Kabul, has long been one of the most insecure districts of Parwan. Volunteers say recent events have compelled them to take up arms and defend their people against the Taliban — The Taliban shadow governor has deep ties with the Haqqani network and has led many operations that claimed Afghan and American lives.​
(b) The Governor of Parwan Province is Mohammad Asim Asim, an ethnic Tajik from Baghlan, was appointed governor in June 2015. Parwan has 10 districts: Bagram, Charikar, Ghorband, Jabal seraj, Kohi Safi, Sayed Khel, Shinwari, Shekh Ali, Salang, Surkhi Parsa. Parwan has a total of 760 villages with an estimated population of 560,000 that is composed of Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, Qizilbash, Kuchi, Hazara, and other minority groups. Most farmers have livestock; the topography of the area (hilly and mountainous) makes a good environment for raising animals.​
(c) In recent weeks, dozens of districts, including in Parwan, fell into Taliban hands. Parwan is located in central Afghanistan, just north of Kabul. Parwan is mountainous in the north with flat plains good for cropping in the center and south. Sheep, goats and cows are the most prevalent livestock. Many of those districts were retaken by Afghan forces within days.​

4. The faster than expected pace of the US-led pull out, the tumbling of districts to the Taliban at a surprising speed and scale, not to mention the dread of a highly infectious variant of Covid-19, has added a large lashing of unpredictability to this mix. The last Belgian diplomats bid adieu this week and the Australians shut up shop in May. Germany has closed its consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan in the course of the international military withdrawal, a diplomat said.

5. The French almost left and the British, like everyone else, constantly assess the situation. Embassy evacuation plans for France, Hungary, Japan, Norway, Turkey, the UK and the US are constantly updated, staff numbers have been steadily drawn down - driven by both Covid and security risks - and some bags are packed, just in case. There are days of calm, days of concern.

6. The dual questions of how to continue fighting terrorists and safeguard Afghans who worked with American forces after the U.S. withdrawal became more urgent after the last U.S. troops left Bagram air base, the largest military base in Afghanistan and the hub of the U.S. war there for nearly 20 years.
(a) Gen. Mir Asadullah Kohistani, Bagram’s new commander insisted the Afghan National Security and Defense Force could hold on to the heavily fortified base despite a string of Taliban wins on the battlefield. The airfield also includes a prison with about 5,000 prisoners, many of them allegedly Taliban.​
(b) “In battle it is sometimes one step forward and some steps back,” said Kohistani. Kohistani said the Afghan military is changing its strategy to focus on the strategic districts. He insisted they would retake them in the coming days without saying how that would be accomplished.​
(c) Kohistani said the U.S. left behind 3.5 million items, all itemized by the departing U.S. military. They include tens of thousands of bottles of water, energy drinks and military ready made meals, known as MRE’s. “When you say 3.5 million items, it is every small items, like every phone, every door knob, every window in every barracks, every door in every barracks,” he said.​
(d) The big ticket items left behind include thousands of civilian vehicles, many of them without keys to start them, and hundreds of armored vehicles. Kohistani said the U.S. also left behind small weapons and the ammunition for them, but the departing troops took heavy weapons with them. As of 6 Jul 2021 (Tues), the U.S. military had completed 90% of the withdrawal, according to U.S. Central Command.​
 
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ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
That's a problem that Rumsfield has left. He organised the war in Afghanistan which was a justified war and the 2nd war in Iraq which wasn't a justified war, but he never planned for after the victory in both cases. If he'd had the foresight and brains to have done that then the subsequent problems in both Afghanistan and Iraq wouldn't exist now. Would've saved a lot of lives and money.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not disbanding the Iraqi army would have helped the Iraq situation (not invading even better). As for Afghanistan, justified war yes, as for exit strategy who knows? Afghanistan has been a C-F for centuries so I doubt there is one that would work.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I would think it wasn’t only Rumsfield; it was a collective decision by the key decision makers to start - for reasons known only to them - to start focusing attention and resources to Iraq; on the false belief or cloud cuckoo land assumption that Saddam has nukes and was a major threat to the region. In reality of course Saddam’s main agenda by that period was regime survival and the only people he was a threat to were those unfortunate enough to be citizens of Iraq.

Whether or not the Bush administration - with the billions spent on intel - really believed Saddam had nukes or were merely using it as a pretext is something for historians/researchers to discover. What we can say with absolute certainty it was a colossal blunder; at a time when AQ and the Talibs were defeated and when many ordinary Afghans welcomed the invasion in the hope it would lead to lasting tangible change for the better.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Afghanistan has been a C-F for centuries so I doubt there is one that would work.
It was a large k of a “what after”; the desire to avoid the task of nation building; creating the right socio economic and political conditions that were needed. The hope or rather illusion was that the country would largely ger back on its feet without a major holistic long term commitment from various countries. It’s not as if nobody pointed this out to the decision makers; there are think tanks/ experts on almost every field known to mankind in the U.S.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
It was a large k of a “what after”; the desire to avoid the task of nation building; creating the right socio economic and political conditions that were needed. The hope or rather illusion was that the country would largely ger back on its feet without a major holistic long term commitment from various countries. It’s not as if nobody pointed this out to the decision makers; there are think tanks/ experts on almost every field known to mankind in the U.S.
The neo-cons from the Bush 2 era were what some people would call, cement heads.
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Not disbanding the Iraqi army would have helped the Iraq situation (not invading even better). As for Afghanistan, justified war yes, as for exit strategy who knows? Afghanistan has been a C-F for centuries so I doubt there is one that would work.
I don't think Afghanistan has been CF for centuries. Just since the British, Russians, and Americans invaded. Actually the British Raj didn't get that far into Afghanistan. They got sent packing with their tail between their legs. The Soviet Russians got right into it and that turned out to be their Vietnam. And the Americans, well we've just discussed that and like English rugby and cricket, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
There were periods when the country was relatively stable. As the old saying goes : the country’s curse is geography. Plus I may add the inability of the various groups to get along; not helped by a certain brand of politics which emerged in the 1970’s; socialism mixed with Afghan (or rather Pashtun) nationalism.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
It just may be that the Afghanis were not ready to move beyond tribal psychology to a nation state, despite all the efforts of the Allies to build a nation state in Afghanistan. Individual tribes seem motivated to defend their tribal lands, but not much more than that.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The neo-cons from the Bush 2 era were what some people would call, cement heads.
Perhaps they had voices in their heads telling them they were doing the right thing. Or maybe it was part of some long term strategic plan they were convinced would benefit the U.S. and it’s allies. If we look at Middle East policy; it has been flawed and highly damaging to U.S. interests for decades.

On Afghanistan if indeed the Taliban manage to overthrow the Kabul government we can expect to see the country divided into ethnic lines.

I’m totally against what the Taliban is fighting for but one has to give it to them. In 2001 they were defeated but managed to make a comeback, survived all that its much much more powerful enemies threw at it and outlasted its enemies. It succeeded in always being a major relevant player; to where it is now.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It just may be that the Afghanis were not ready to move beyond tribal psychology to a nation state, despite all the efforts of the Allies to build a nation state in Afghanistan.
True but did the “allies” really try to build a “nation state”? Even if they did; how would about 2 decades of allied presence succeed in doing so when the past few centuries have seen the country deeply divided along sectarian ethnic lines?

We can to a certain extent also ask the same question about certain Central Asian which although may not have the mixed sectarian ethnic groupings which Afghanistan has; still has people who may identify more with their tribe , ethnic grouping, village or valley rather then as citizens of a sovereign country is which the central government has a weak presence in certain areas.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
True but did the “allies” really try to build a “nation state”? Even if they did; how would about 2 decades of allied presence succeed in doing so when the past few centuries have seen the country deeply divided along sectarian ethnic lines?
In hindsight everyone has great vision. But, if I recall correctly, the long term solution for Afghanistan was to build a self-sustaining democratic nation state.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
In hindsight everyone has great vision.
True but with regards to a lot of what we discussing; it’s not based on hindsight. I’m no expert or academic but I (like many others) foresaw a lot of the issues eventually faced.

Back in 2014 I had a conversation with a ex army officer who was attached to the Defence Attaché’s office at the U.S. embassy. He served in Afghanistan and ‘mentored’ a ANA unit. He agreed with much of what we discussed on how things had gone rat shit but said a lot of it was with the benefit of hindsight. I pointed out why it wasn’t and that there were precedents to learn from.

But, if I recall correctly, the long term solution for Afghanistan was to build a self-sustaining democratic nation state.
Yes but they got distracted; there was no holistic plan to begin with, the State Department and Pentagon had different ideas, flawed and highly damaging policies with short term benefits were implemented, what cash and other aid was received was often not put to optimum use; the UN was initially kept out, there was the problem of Pakistan, etc.

The idea was sound : be rid of AQ and the Taliban and things would eventually sort themselves out.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Afghanistan has a traditional tribal society, especially outside of the main urban areas. It is something that is part of their DNA and like the Middle East, western interference, ignorance, and arrogance has created extensive problems by cutting across tribal boundaries and ignoring the tribal dynamics, especially when drawing lines on maps. The Americans also have this almost religious fervour or missionary zeal that every one is to be converted to democracy whether they want it or not. Not all societies want or require democracy.

Tribal identity is quite a powerful thing. I belong to three; my Māori iwi (tribe - nation) which is my blood, social, and cultural identity, along with strong whanau (family) links going back many generations. We have a central physical place that we all call home, no matter where in the world we live and thats our Marae, our meeting house / place. It's not only our physical home but our spiritual home. My own particular iwi is a small one but an ancient one. In the old days we warred against other iwi. It was the national sport and it was only colonisation that stopped it. Now we war against each other on the sports field.

My other two tribes are the RNZAF and the RNZN. Each has its own Marae as well. Both have different cultures but are also similar. Any serving military member or veteran from wherever will understand what I am talking about here.

My point is that tribal identity can be very strong especially in societies where it is a necessity. The Afghan tribes require it to survive in a harsh environment and in many cases they were separated in different vallies separated by high impassable mountain ranges. This has helped them survive over the centuries and it is now the basis of Afghan society. You have to work with it not against it and remember that the rural tribal members will be highly conservative and traditional in their views and values.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 2

7. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met at the State Department with his counterparts from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the two most likely of the six Central Asian countries U.S. military planners are eying for the scheme, according to a congressional source. Both border Afghanistan and would allow for quicker access to the country than existing U.S. bases in the Middle East and aircraft carriers hundreds of miles away in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, traveled to those countries in May.

8. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the U.S. military used two bases, one each in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, for Afghanistan operations. Both bases were later shut down amid unrest and pressure by the Kremlin, which has increasingly viewed the U.S. presence in the region with suspicion. But the prospect of such an agreement with one of the Central Asian states now is unlikely given the sour state of the relationship between Washington and Moscow.

9. Uzbekistan is the most promising of the countries that share a border with Afghanistan, experts say. Tashkent is far less dependent on Russia and China economically than the other nations, is not a part of the CSTO, and does not host any foreign military bases. Meanwhile, the president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has rekindled ties with the US, and even visited Washington. To some extent, Washington may be able to leverage sanctions relief and international recognition in exchange for a deal, for instance helping Uzbekistan achieve its goal of becoming a part of the World Trade Organization.

On Afghanistan if indeed the Taliban manage to overthrow the Kabul government we can expect to see the country divided into ethnic lines.

I’m totally against what the Taliban is fighting for but one has to give it to them. In 2001 they were defeated but managed to make a comeback, survived all that its much much more powerful enemies threw at it and outlasted its enemies. It succeeded in always being a major relevant player; to where it is now.
10. The West's reporting on Afghanistan is problematic. It delves into local effects and maps various margins of the war against the Taliban, but systematically side-steps the question of what the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan wishes to do with Afghanistan, with Afghans, and why. The fundamental question of 'why' is absent.
(a) In Jan 2020, Afghanistan's intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) enabled the return of 130 Pakistanis — these are women and children related to former fighters of the Islamic State terror group that were held at an Afghan detention center. Many Islamic State fighters arrived in Nangarhar with their families from the Tirah Valley in Pakistan and belonged to the Orakzai tribe. Officials in Nangarhar said the return was based on on the promise of these people giving up militant connections. Nangarhar province is in the eastern part of Afghanistan, which shares a border with Pakistan.​
(b) Public donations from Pakistan is only one of the sources through which the insurgent group finances its bloody insurgency against the Afghan government. Correctly understood, given the scale of financing and fund raising allowed, certain elements in Pakistan are trying to over throw the government of Afghanistan by their support of the Taliban — what happens in Afghanistan starts in Pakistan.​
(c) The 2008 Mumbai attacks were a series of terrorist attacks that took place in Nov 2008, when 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai. Ask yourself, what benefit does the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan gain from the killing of civilians in India?​
(d) Americans should keep in mind that after Osama bin Laden escaped from the battle at Tora Bora in late 2001 — Abbottabad, Pakistan housed him and enabled his continued operations until he was killed in by American forces in a cross border raid from Afghanistan in May 2011. If America did not invade Afghanistan in 2001, it is likely that Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well, planning further terror attacks. Ask yourself, what benefit did the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan gain from hiding Osama bin Laden until 2011?​
(e) Like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Taliban work on behalf of elements of a state to achieve its political goals — over a period of 20 years. Americans need to understand that the smart unseen enemy is far worse than the fanatic in front of you. Ask yourself, why does the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan want the state of Afghanistan to fail?​

11. Currently, there are two wars in Afghanistan: One the civil war inside Afghanistan, and the other against the Afghan government from Pakistani soil causing a parallel internal disturbance. Since Pakistan’s key policy objective has been to establish its hegemony in Afghanistan, it views an independent Afghanistan as a hurdle in the achievement of its hegemonic ambitions.

12. Noor Zaman Achakzai, a reporter and analyst of the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, said the Taliban have sources of income beyond donations. "Taliban have numerous sources of wealth. They collect double the tax gathered by Afghan authorities, from smuggling, transportation of oil, narcotics, weapons and local cultivation," he said.

13. "In Ramadan, they also received huge Zakat (alms) from Islamic countries." The United Nations also says the Taliban subsidize their insurgency through drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom, illegal mining and taxation in areas under their control. The annual Taliban income from different sources is estimated to be between $300 million and $1.6 billion, according to a U.N. report.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 2

10. The West's reporting on Afghanistan is problematic. It delves into local effects and maps various margins of the war against the Taliban, but systematically side-steps the question of what the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan wishes to do with Afghanistan, with Afghans, and why. The fundamental question of 'why' is absent.

(a) In Jan 2020, Afghanistan's intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) enabled the return of 130 Pakistanis — these are women and children related to former fighters of the Islamic State terror group that were held at an Afghan detention center. Many Islamic State fighters arrived in Nangarhar with their families from the Tirah Valley in Pakistan and belonged to the Orakzai tribe. Officials in Nangarhar said the return was based on on the promise of these people giving up militant connections. Nangarhar province is in the eastern part of Afghanistan, which shares a border with Pakistan.​
(b) Public donations from Pakistan is only one of the sources through which the insurgent group finances its bloody insurgency against the Afghan government. Correctly understood, given the scale of financing and fund raising allowed, certain elements in Pakistan are trying to over throw the government of Afghanistan by their support of the Taliban — what happens in Afghanistan starts in Pakistan.​
(c) The 2008 Mumbai attacks were a series of terrorist attacks that took place in Nov 2008, when 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai. Ask yourself, what benefit does the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan gain from the killing of civilians in India?​
(d) Americans should keep in mind that after Osama bin Laden escaped from the battle at Tora Bora in late 2001 — Abbottabad, Pakistan housed him and enabled his continued operations until he was killed in by American forces in a cross border raid from Afghanistan in May 2011. If America did not invade Afghanistan in 2001, it is likely that Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well, planning further terror attacks. Ask yourself, what benefit did the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan gain from hiding Osama bin Laden until 2011?​
(e) Like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Taliban work on behalf of elements of a state to achieve its political goals — over a period of 20 years. Americans need to understand that the smart unseen enemy is far worse than the fanatic in front of you. Ask yourself, why does the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan want the state of Afghanistan to fail?​

11. Currently, there are two wars in Afghanistan: One the civil war inside Afghanistan, and the other against the Afghan government from Pakistani soil causing a parallel internal disturbance. Since Pakistan’s key policy objective has been to establish its hegemony in Afghanistan, it views an independent Afghanistan as a hurdle in the achievement of its hegemonic ambitions.
Then in who's interest is the ISI working? The state of Pakistan? Or its own? It appears to be a law unto itself. Secondly what's ISI's endgame apart from the destruction of India? Even that would have to be a suspect endgame for them because if ever achieved it would end the main reason for their existence.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The Americans also have this almost religious fervour or missionary zeal that every one is to be converted to democracy whether they want it or not. Not all societies want or require democracy.
Most societies want democracy but their idea of democracy or the type of democracy that would suit their societies can differ greatly from what an analyst in the State Department or an NGO, who is out of touch with reality, has in mind. Another issue is that when its own interests are at stake; the U.S. can be highly selective with democracy, human rights and justice.

IS’s endgame is to continue preserving its position and with regards to Afghanistan; to ensure Pakistan has some level of influence there amongst various players. For decades - as is well known - Pakistan was fixated on the premise of Afghanistan providing strategic depth in the event of all out trouble with India. The biggest nightmare for Pakistan or rather the IS is India having more influence or a much greater presence in Afghanistan.

It’s also worth noting that Pakistan has a longstanding unresolved border issue with Afghanistan along parts of the Durand Line. Pakistan gets blamed a lot and rightly so due to decades of meddling in Afghanistan but it was also flawed U.S. policy which enabled Pakistan to do a lot of what it did and to be fair; Pakistan has its own interests to safeguard. A lot of what the U.S. wanted Pakistan to do in the part was great for U.S. interests but not so great for Pakistan’s.
 
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