Unrest in Jordan — Attempted coup and link to Prince Hamza

OPSSG

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4 Apr 2021 — Jordanian security forces arrested more than 20 former Jordanian officials, including:
(i) former chief of the royal court Bassem Awadallah (long-time confidant of the king who later became minister of finance and also adviser to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — also known as MBS);​
(ii) Prince Hamza’s chief of staff Yasser Majali; and​
(iii) former Jordanian envoy to Saudi Arabia Hassan Bin Zayed (a member of the royal family).​

This royal crisis that emerged in Jordan shows that the country does have some unique problems of its own. A former U.S. official with knowledge of events in Jordan said the plot did not involve a "physical coup." Rather, he said, those involved were planning to push for protests that would appear to be a "popular uprising with masses on the street" with tribal support. Arrests of top officials and royal family members are rare in Jordan, seen as one of the Arab world's most stable countries.

1. The news comes at a precarious time for Jordan’s King Abdullah II. The country is experiencing a brutal coronavirus wave, with fatalities only recently dipping below 100 a day. Discontent has risen, with Jordanians increasingly angry over the government's handling of the pandemic and its inability to contain the economic devastation wreaked by strong lockdowns and weekend quarantines. In a video published by the BBC, Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, one-time crown prince (and stepbrother to Jordan’s King Abdullah II) said the chief of the general staff of the Jordanian Army arrived at his house Saturday morning and informed him he was not permitted to leave or communicate with others because in meetings he was present for and social media posts he was mentioned in there was criticism of the king and the government.

2. Prince Hamzah, the son of Jordan's late King Hussein, has accused the Jordan government of corruption, nepotism and incompetence. He says all his staff have been arrested, he and his family have been placed under house arrest in the Al-Salaam Palace outside Amman and his communications have been restricted. He was named crown prince of Jordan in 1999. However, he was seen as too young and inexperienced to be named successor at the time of King Hussein's death. Instead it was King Abdullah to who took to the throne, and he stripped Hamzah of the title of crown prince in 2004.
  • A security official told the official Jordanian news agency Petra that all suspects other than the former crown prince had been under surveillance for some time and were arrested on security charges.
  • Petra denied that Prince Hamza was under house arrest or arrested.
  • The Washington Post first reported about the former crown prince arrest.
3. The Saudi royal court issued a statement in solidarity with King Abdullah II, asserting it stood with the Jordanian monarch and supported whatever decisions he makes to “preserve the security and stability and frustrate any attempt to tamper with them.” Both Bahrain and the Palestinian Authority followed suit, and Egypt said that Jordan's stability is integral for Egyptian and Arab national security. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said, "We are closely following the reports and in touch with Jordanian officials. King Abdullah is a key partner of the United States, and he has our full support."
 
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OPSSG

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4. "The U.S. administration knows that Bassam Awadullah works for MBS (Mohammed bin Salman). Any astute observer will say if someone this close to MBS is involved he would have to know, said the former U.S. official. Still, he said, no matter what, the Jordanians will try to keep any Saudi involvement quiet to prevent a complete rupture of ties with the powerful kingdom.

5. Jordan's 59-year-old king came to power in 1999, when King Hussein before his death elevated the British-educated, eldest son from his first marriage from his relatively obscure position as head of Jordan's special forces to become the new monarch. Since then, King Abdullah II has been a top U.S. ally, often allowing U.S. troops to stage operations from Jordanian territory and participating in the anti-Islamic State campaign. The kingdom, which has scant resources, received some US$1.5 billion in assistance from the U.S. in 2020 — a result of Abdullah's popularity among US Congressional leaders.

6. These latest arrests brings back memories of the 1957 alleged Jordanian military coup attempt against King Hussein that also failed.
 
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ngatimozart

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@OPSSG Do you think MBS has his grubby fingers involved in this plot? He's a dodgy one, but what would he to gain by such a plot? Maybe the current King was thinking of naming the former Crown Prince as Crown Prince again? It's intriguing.
 

OPSSG

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@OPSSG Do you think MBS has his grubby fingers involved in this plot? He's a dodgy one, but what would he to gain by such a plot?
I don’t know but I am aware that Mohammed bin Salman is as corrupt as they come and MBS knowing him well does not mean the Saudi Royal family want to over throw King Abdullah II.

While the Jordanian Government stated that there was foreign backing, we should never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity or incompetence.

By Saudi standards, MBS is a reformer but there is much to dislike about his rule that has become entrenched.
Maybe the current King was thinking of naming the former Crown Prince as Crown Prince again? It's intriguing.
I don’t think so; this is a story of palace intrigue and gathering of tribal power to oppose mis-rule. Jordan’s 26 year-old Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah is King Abdullah II’s son; it’s a family biz and he wants his son to rule.

Prince Hamzah, the son of Jordan's late King Hussein was disposed by King Abdullah II as crown prince years ago and has been progressively sidelined since 2004. The wiser choice after he was disposed was to go into exile.
 
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OPSSG

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Sharing some inchoate thoughts on Jordan’s family dispute & MBS (the blame magnet)

1. In late Mar 2021, Jordan's disparate opposition groups had called for a large demonstration in Dakhiliya roundabout, demanding regime change during the Arab Spring that shook governments from Tunisia to the Gulf. King Abdullah II’s government faces growing discontent with his rule; resulting in arrests of tribal and political activists, that have been stepped up.

(a) In Oct 2018, three states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, announced a US$2.5 billion aid package in June after IMF-backed austerity measures sparked some of the largest protests in Jordan in years.​
(b) To manage this discontent and to deflect criticism on King Abdullah II and Hussein bin Abdullah, as Crown Prince of Jordan, the ruling elite have tried either changing the Prime Minister (to Bisher Al Khasawneh on 8 Oct 2020) or reshuffling the cabinate in May 2019. But real and meaningful change is unlikely, as Jordan has failed to diversify its commercial sector or do something about the country’s endemic corruption.​

2. In a letter signed by Jordan's former crown prince Hamzah bin Hussein indicates that he is ready to be "of help and support" to his half-brother, King Abdullah II, and the crown prince. In the meantime, it was reported that:
(a) the Royal Hashemite Court said that King Abdullah II had decided "to deal with the topic of his highness Prince Hamzeh within the framework of the Hashemite family" and that Prince Hassan bin Talal, the uncle of Abdullah and Hamzeh, would serve as a mediator.​
(b) at the bottom left of the letter, Prince Hamzah — the oldest son of Jordan's late King Hussein and Queen Noor — signed off with a note indicating that he is at his uncle Prince Hassan's house.​
(c) Prince Hassan had been appointed by King Abdullah II to deal with the dispute, according to an earlier statement from the Royal Court on — which means this storm in a tea cup will pass.​

3. There will always be criticism of MBS, as he has to decide the level and amounts of Saudi aid granted to Jordan. It is easy to blame MBS, as the blame magnet (when things go wrong), but I think, Jordanians are even more to blame, for their failure to conduct meaningful reform and use the aid given effectively.
 
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