Indonesian Aero News

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
The CNBC Indonesia writer is a hack who has pulls speculations out of his ass (or her, I didn't bother checking the name). CNBC Indonesia has long adopted a clickbait strategy and writes to maximize the number of clicks received, prioritizing speed over research and bombast rather than analysis.

Budgetary document shows that Indonesia plans on acquiring 4 aircrafts this year. This document is not available to the public but the bit about four aircrafts are legit. Multiple reporters gave a summary of the documents. But jumping from there to fighter jets is a wild leap of imagination. Which CNBC Indonesia is happy to indulge, I suppose.

The current fighter jet plan is to acquire F-16s. The Su-35 is still in the backburner, to be acquired if a waiver can be acquired. But the number for Su-35 is 11 and for F-16 it could vary between 12 to 24 but certainly not 4. Rafale is not being seriously considered. If the Su-35 is officially dropped, then let's speculate. But until the Su-35 is dropped, talking about Rafale is just wish-listing with no realistic chance.

If we want to speculate about which four aircrafts will be acquired, we can look at older acquisition plans that have not been exercised. My personal belief is that the four aircrafts refers to two recon aircrafts and two tanker aircrafts or maybe some other combination of the two.

Indonesian Air Force has been planning on acquiring two tanker aircrafts for years. They have also been looking to supplement (and eventually replace) their three SLAMMR-equipped Boeing 737-200 Surveiller. Check out the old news about plans for AEW&C aircrafts. I realize that this adds up to five rather than four, but this makes far more sense that speculating about 4 fighter jets. The fighter jets will be at 12-24 F-16 and maybe 11 Su-35 if a CAATSA waiver can be acquired.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
If they are procured the assets through foreign loan scheme like US DCSA, there's potential it will not going to be posted in defense budget as it will be posted on Foreign Loan payment.

I remember long time ago when I'm still with my undergraduate in University of Indonesia during Peace Binasena 1 (F-16 blk 15 OCU..yes I'm that old :)), my Professor who is also head of Ministry of Finance national budget department (at that time), shown us how budget being posted. He shown F-16 procurement as example as it's not shown in defense budget, but posted in foreign loan repayment schedule. This as bimasena 1 was using US DCSA scheme.

While assets that being procured through direct purchase even being paid in installments will be posted in Defense budget. In sense if procurement part of foreign loan scheme program, they will be posted differently. Thus not being shown in defense procurement post, even tough on final accounting calculation in the end the foreign loan payment part will be calculated back to defense budget.

Thus if the reporter only look on items being procured, perhaps they will not see all assets being procured, but only assets procured through direct payment (not through foreign loan program).
Perhaps the calculation bit different from the time I take my undergraduate, but I suspect the main idea on reporting still the same. The ministry of finance like to post the program based on how they are going to be finance.

In short those 4 aircraft being talk, perhaps ones that going to be finance with straight/direct purchase funds and not foreign loan payment scheme.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Indonesia has received State Dept approval to buy eight MV-22 Osprey. I didn't even realise they were interested in them. Could be a good capability for them.
Yes @hauritz we have discussed this since early this day at Indonesian Army thread. It's put there since the users will be Indonesian Army (TNI-AD) Air Command (Pernerbad).

I think it's taken many people in Indonesia quite surprised too. Since before the talk in Media is for CH-47 and practically no talk on MV-22.
Seems Bell move undercut Boeing this time. Bell already partner with DI for sometime now, they're more familiar on doing silence marketing, compared Boeing that come with full media coverage.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Do you agree in N219 Amphibious development ?
Let me put this way, if DI executive come to any Banks or Investment Banks to find funding for developing N219 Amphibious project..or even any other new project..then the similar question from this Allman will be ask by the Bankers or Investment Analyst.

Those are standard valid commercial questions, which sadly many our State Owned Companies (BUMN) did not provide enough data on that.. especially the ones that usually being granted government projects.

Current BUMN Minister as his background in business perhaps will be more scrutinized on any funding feasibility for BUMN projects.
On the other hand, if the funding for this N219 Amphibious project is politically motivated (and not commercial feasible ones), perhaps it's different stories.

Indonesia is archipelago nation, but do you see many Amphibious plane being operate commercially ? In fact only few Amphibious plane operate commercially by a company in Bali, and only for very niche market.

I created this thread 11 years ago with the question of Amphibious plane that DI want to license base on Dornier design. Still that's not going anywhere.
Amphibious plane should be in 'theoritically' attractive to Indonesia geographically. However with Government already put many airports even in many secondary or tertiary islands, then it left only very small 'niche' market for Amphibious plane commercially.

So yes, there will be market for Amphibious plane, but with DI condition is it justifiable commercially to invest money on that ?
Can DI recoup the Investment costs with limited market potential ?

That's what DI executive need to shown, if DI is pure commercially based company.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes, and that market (below 600mi or 1000 km) does not need 70-90 pac Turboprop, since most of the market only serve thin regional routes that Airlines only need 40-50 capacity Turboprop at most.
Regional Jets already become efficient enough

I put the topics of regional Turboprop with news on Garuda decided to return it's ATR-70 and CRJ-1000 due to not suitable for market conditions.
This actually already in news for sometime. Garuda present management already talk that using those two is a mistake on market assessment.

CRJ-1000 consider not efficient enough compared to larger regional jets like Embrear E series and Airbus A-220. While ATR just I put on my previous comment, is facing what their purpose in the market of 70+ passanger class. It's too big for range below 600km (300-400miles), while for market up to 1000km (600-700miles) the new regional jets are proving more faster while still can match turboprop efficiency.

Thus for some people still try to push 70-90 passanger Turboprop like this Regio Aviasi really need to take a look on market development.
In fact even DI with it's smaller 50 passanger Turboprop plan of N-245 also need to see if it's smaller Turboprop design can still meet 'niche' market slot that now shrinking for Turboprop.

Turboprop now relegated to only less then 600km or 400 miles market, between cities corridor. That market also facing competition from Train network. Even Amtrak now focusing on that kind of business model rather than long range rail service. Japan and Europe with their faster train already pushing Airlines on that kind of corridor market.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The TGV line between Lyon & Paris pretty much killed the air shuttle that used to operate on that route - in the 1980s. City centre to city centre it was quicker, more comfortable & much less hassle.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The enemy always gets a vote. Right now in 2020, the PLA(N), operates 2 carriers, Liaoning (with 26 J15s) and Shandong (with 32 J15s) and a large fleet of Xian H-6 bombers armed with the YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). The danger posed by the YJ-12 comes from its range of 400 km, making it the longest-ranged ACBM ever engineered, and its ability to travel at high rates of speed (up to Mach 3). These ASCMs when launched from the air, give the PLA(N) plenty of long range strike options. Just imagine how powerful the Chinese Navy will be by 2032, when it has 3 carriers and it begins to modernise its bomber fleet.
No information yet on what the cause of the crash, but attrition rate on Hawk 200/100 in the inventory for the last 25 years, from what I gather is one of the reason wirh the plan to merge Hawk from two squadron to just one.

Hawk 200/100 already being proposed by TNI-AU for replacement. However the question now is whether with FA-50 or F-16V.
Is there any news on the proposed TNI AU F-16V purchase by FMS?

I have not found any follow up from the 28 Oct 2019 report where Air Marshal Yuyu Sutisna said that the TNI AU planned to submit a request to buy two squadrons of F-16Vs by FMS in January 2020.
Don’t really understand the sudden interest in buying 15 second hand Eurofighter Typhoons.

If the plan is to buy 30 plus F-16Vs and fully upgrade the 15 Eurofighter Typhoons (to Tranche-4 standards) that I can understand.

But if the plan to cancel/postpone the original idea of a F-16V purchase and go for 15 second hand early Tranche-1 fighters (that will need a lot of money to upgrade), that I can’t understand.

The TNI AU needs to have a minimum number of modern fighter squadrons — at least 3 to 4 of the same aircraft type (with the required local stocking of parts and spare engines), that is well maintained with high availability rates — to maintain sortie generation capability after your airbases are attacked by the enemy.

Without high aircraft availability rates (well above 85%), Indonesia as a country can’t have competent fighter pilots and aircrew that can operate in a high tempo environment to conduct large force employment (where a strike package comprises of 30 to 40 fighters per wave), while TNI AU airbases are under attack.

Without this base capability for large force employment, the TNI AU can’t effectively develop naval strike tactics using the F-16Vs to launch Harpoon missiles against enemy warships, after Indonesian MPAs have found the enemy fleet.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
@OPSSG about that Austrian Eurofighter, it's news come from Austria and nothing come from MinDef or TNI-AU it self. For me, I treat it as 'rumours' again. Just like when news come from French that MinDef interested on 3 sq or 48 Rafale.

Right now TNI-AU it self on their plan for future still talk of at least 2 sq of F-16V. The sticking point right know is that whatever procurement done, need to involve local defense Industry. This already been stated politically by Jokowi, and seems this's going to be his politicall standing.

So, I suspect that Prabowo as Defense Minister now throwing bunch of 'requirement' notice to several 'western' producers. This related to geopolitical condition of CAATSA on one thing, and domestic political factions that still did not want Indonesia defense procurement to be overly depend and dictate by US.

On real TNI-AU need, well one sq is already in dire need for fighters as Sq 14 already not flying for 4 years after their F-5 were taking out. This Su-35 saga need to be resolved soon. Those Austrian Eurofighters eventough is only Blk 1 and Austrian it self find it to expensive for upgrade toward Blk2/3, has one thing that can be attractive for TNI-AU need. It's available soon and it has relative low flying hours.

I always said, for aircraft procurement in Indonesia, never underestimate DI's power thus it's partner lobby.
What if Airbus come back again on this proposal, What if Airbus says, If you want 2-3 sq of Eurofighters, we can have final assembly in here, provide enough deals for DI that can cover significant amount of job to total procurement costs. DI already have build facilities for Fighters assembly for KFX, and Airbus then come and say forgot KFX, work with us and we can provide Blk 3 facilities in DI.
In the meantime they're going to help with Austrian Eurofighters to be used by SQ 14 that need aircraft to operate and can be used as Training to learn operate and maintain Eurofighters.

Again all this just scenario speculation, but with Administration Politicall standing on Local Defense Industry involvement, this is one of potential scenario being offered.

Yes, the most logical choice (and what TNI-AU wants from their presentation to Parliament) is F-16V. And F-16V from MinDef and TNI-AU statement in media seems still are the strong candidate.

However MinDef also need to decide what will be with Su-35? If then Airbus come with immediate alternative for sq 14 need of F5 replacements, while in same time come out with proposal that can provide DI involvement for Tech Transfer, manufacturing capabilities, parts support thus lifetime sustainment, then it can come out with 'interesting' package which will satisfy administration politicall standing. While in the same time provide TNI-AU with lifetime sustainment support that can simplified it's logistics problem.

All this just speculations and MinDef now seems trying to assess what's the best offer for long time solutions for TNI-AU that can satisfied it's needs, also support Administration Politicall standing and Geopolitical consideration for Indonesia.

LM also can still provide their own option for DI. DI also got off set deal for parts job during initial F-16 deal in 90's. They can also provide jobs for F-16V in term of maintenance and tech Transfer for lifetime sustainment with DI.
The truth is, all of this proposal still not being talk in public.
Indonesian politicall standing on defense procurement practically can divide on two things now:
1. Involved Local defense industry in Tech Transfer and part of the Jobs. Thus it can be with other Jobs that not related to the assets being procured it self, just seems what Boeing offer,
2. Involved counter trade agreement (if local defense industry need can be included), just like the ones with Russian on Su-35.

#1 is being preference seems from my understanding. However #2 can also can be considered but #2 can be tricky and can create accountability problem. #2 also can have more potential on hanky panky with companies close to politicall circles. Thus why from what I heard, Ministry of Finance and State Own Enterprise (SOE) Ministry prefer #1.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
@OPSSG about that Austrian Eurofighter, it's news come from Austria and nothing come from MinDef or TNI-AU it self. For me, I treat it as 'rumours' again. Just like when news come from French that MinDef interested on 3 sq or 48 Rafale.

Right now TNI-AU it self on their plan for future still talk of at least 2 sq of F-16V. The sticking point right know is that whatever procurement done, need to involve local defense Industry. This already been stated politically by Jokowi, and seems this's going to be his politicall standing.

So, I suspect that Prabowo as Defense Minister now throwing bunch of 'requirement' notice to several 'western' producers. This related to geopolitical condition of CAATSA on one thing, and domestic political factions that still did not want Indonesia defense procurement to be overly depend and dictate by US.

On real TNI-AU need, well one sq is already in dire need for fighters as Sq 14 already not flying for 4 years after their F-5 were taking out. This Su-35 saga need to be resolved soon. Those Austrian Eurofighters eventough is only Blk 1 and Austrian it self find it to expensive for upgrade toward Blk2/3, has one thing that can be attractive for TNI-AU need. It's available soon and it has relative low flying hours.

I always said, for aircraft procurement in Indonesia, never underestimate DI's power thus it's partner lobby.
What if Airbus come back again on this proposal, What if Airbus says, If you want 2-3 sq of Eurofighters, we can have final assembly in here, provide enough deals for DI that can cover significant amount of job to total procurement costs. DI already have build facilities for Fighters assembly for KFX, and Airbus then come and say forgot KFX, work with us and we can provide Blk 3 facilities in DI.
In the meantime they're going to help with Austrian Eurofighters to be used by SQ 14 that need aircraft to operate and can be used as Training to learn operate and maintain Eurofighters.

Again all this just scenario speculation, but with Administration Politicall standing on Local Defense Industry involvement, this is one of potential scenario being offered.

Yes, the most logical choice (and what TNI-AU wants from their presentation to Parliament) is F-16V. And F-16V from MinDef and TNI-AU statement in media seems still are the strong candidate.

However MinDef also need to decide what will be with Su-35? If then Airbus come with immediate alternative for sq 14 need of F5 replacements, while in same time come out with proposal that can provide DI involvement for Tech Transfer, manufacturing capabilities, parts support thus lifetime sustainment, then it can come out with 'interesting' package which will satisfy administration politicall standing. While in the same time provide TNI-AU with lifetime sustainment support that can simplified it's logistics problem.

All this just speculations and MinDef now seems trying to assess what's the best offer for long time solutions for TNI-AU that can satisfied it's needs, also support Administration Politicall standing and Geopolitical consideration for Indonesia.

LM also can still provide their own option for DI. DI also got off set deal for parts job during initial F-16 deal in 90's. They can also provide jobs for F-16V in term of maintenance and tech Transfer for lifetime sustainment with DI.
The truth is, all of this proposal still not being talk in public.
Indonesian politicall standing on defense procurement practically can divide on two things now:
1. Involved Local defense industry in Tech Transfer and part of the Jobs. Thus it can be with other Jobs that not related to the assets being procured it self, just seems what Boeing offer,
2. Involved counter trade agreement (if local defense industry need can be included), just like the ones with Russian on Su-35.

#1 is being preference seems from my understanding. However #2 can also can be considered but #2 can be tricky and can create accountability problem. #2 also can have more potential on hanky panky with companies close to politicall circles. Thus why from what I heard, Ministry of Finance and State Own Enterprise (SOE) Ministry prefer #1.
If we buy Typhoon, it means it will be used for stop gap only since the upgrading will be expensive. The reason IMO is more because we need to fill ex F5 squadron with decent fighter as soon as possible. And it is due to the interesting price it may offer. As I said earlier that the acquisition for jet fighter in this administration will be only for F5 replacement. The acquisition will only be quite logical if Austrian Typhoon use similar missile and weapon with KFX/IFX or F16 block 52.

IMO SU 35 is another preferable acquisition since 50 percent of the payment will use barter with Indonesian goods and agricultural product which will be supported by current policy who support our local products during this pandemic. The infrastructure is also quite similar with current Su 27/30 that we have, including weapon, simulator, and relatively similar engine.

The possibility to acquire Brahmos missile for naval attack is also one of the advantage of buying Su 35 beside its long range capability, considering our potential conflict is in the sea with China and Malaysia on the mind.

Parliament has approved Su 35 acquisition and KFX/IFX program continuation.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Hmm.. Prabowo's is seasons politicians. He'll talk before with Jokowi on any big acquisition. In fact in last cabinet meeting Jokowi hinted that Prabowo's knows what he wants. After that Prabowo's use media coverage on his big procurement with Pindad.

Politically that statement come from one PDIP Parliament members that being sideline already. In fact Su-35 and KFX are something that increasingly in question to be processed and proceed.
Anyway, this's just like Rafale news before. It will create some 'commotion' in local media, but will be die down after a week or two. Just like negative commotion in media for MV-22, then die down..and then some positive comments on MV-22 will come out.

For one thing, if they proceed with Eurofighters, then they'll have to already make a deal with Airbus on DI involvement for lifetime sustainment.
Actually the talk on Rafale before already give a clues. They're looking for 3 Sq with before the talk for 1 sq of Su-35 and 2 sq of F-16V. Then come talk on 3 sq of Rafale, and then this Eurofighters.

Just like I posted, what if Airbus come with offer saying they will include DI as final assembly for 'say' 20-30 Eurofighters blk 2 or 3 (just like SAAB give to Embrear for Gripen NG), and they will give Austrian Eurofighters on top of that (as Austrian and Airbus are in dispute on that Blk 1 Eurofighters anyway thus it's also give Airbus room to settle with Austrian).

Can it be more interested compared to what Dasault or LM offering ? Well certainly will be more interested to what DI can hope for from any Russian deals.

There's still some section on politicall circle that doesn't like US or Western deal, and prefer to Russia and Chinese deals. But like I say before, the nature on Administration Politicall standing and Geopolitical need has also change.

Also Minister of Finance already openly support Prabowo's need for large defense procurement, as long as done in more transparent and support long term need and involved Local Industry as much as possible.
This in the end shown whoever supplier that can provide more benefits to local industry have more chance to get the deal (if nothing changes).

Just to add on speculation, what if Boeing also already provide some offer to include DI as part of their large supply chain on various products. They're not giving DI license manufacturing, but more on long term contracts as part of their global value chain. For DI it can be more attractive considering how large Boeing supply chain ecosystem are.

If that happen, we can see somehow F-18 Shornet come to equation. Will that happen ? Don't know..can it happen, well depending on Boeing offer. After all Boeing did already signed MOU with DI on tech Transfer in maintenance.

In short, all of this just still in speculation stage, but it's fluid.
 

ChestnutTree

Active Member
I'd imagine Boeing would offer the F-15EX over the Super Hornet. Coming from talking to my old Air Force coworkers, Boeing representatives did offer the Strike Eagle numerous times throughout the years. According to them, the Air Force for the most part prefers the Strike Eagle as they can theoretically share engines, electrical components, and weapons with the Falcons already in service. However, CPFH and the Air Force's already low budget unfortunately prevented that from happening.
 

Toptob

Active Member
I'd imagine Boeing would offer the F-15EX over the Super Hornet. Coming from talking to my old Air Force coworkers, Boeing representatives did offer the Strike Eagle numerous times throughout the years. According to them, the Air Force for the most part prefers the Strike Eagle as they can theoretically share engines, electrical components, and weapons with the Falcons already in service. However, CPFH and the Air Force's already low budget unfortunately prevented that from happening.
I read somewhere that the F-15X series aircraft would come to well over a 100 million dollars. F-15's are also more expensive to operate and maintain than most aircraft. Which is fine, because the F-15 was never designed to be an economical platform. But so far the F-15X is still a paper product, while the Super Hornet is a fully operational (combat proven) platform with a lot of development behind it.

Then again, when we look at the composition of the TNI-AU it looks like what is procured is dictated more than which politician is bribed at that time than any strategic consideration...
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The F-15EX is not a paper product, two are already under construction ( see recent posts in USAF thread). The price is supposed to be $87 million to the USAF but time will tell I guess. Previous contracts for F-15SEs were well over $100 million to the USAF and even more for export orders.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
imagine Boeing would offer the F-15EX over the Super Hornet. Coming from talking to my old Air Force coworkers, Boeing representatives did offer the Strike Eagle numerous times throughout the years.
Boeing seems to think Israel and India can be the next customers for F-15 EX. Yes F-16V and F-15EX shares engine commonality, but Shornet is more economical to maintain and F-18F Blk 3 will also give performance that will not be much differed toward F-15EX.

Anyway back to TNI-AU case, both Boeing and Airbus can give DI incentives as part of their huge global value chain ecosystem. Thus on that side they can provide bigger business incentive toward DI. LM in my opinion will be less limited on providing business incentive toward DI compare to Boeing and Airbus. However it doesn't mean they can't provide something that can be attractive for DI business need.

One thing for sure LM has two products that has TNI-AU preference, C-130 J and F-16V. Just as I posted before, TNI-AU needs and preference are not the only ones factor that give final say on procurement decision, but it still give significant factor.

Then again, when we look at the composition of the TNI-AU it looks like what is procured is dictated more than which politician is bribed at that time than any strategic consideration...
I will not say hanky panky already gone from Indonesia procurement. Corrupt influence is hard to get rid off, especially with politicians. Heck, even in DC the Defense Industry still relied on their Politicall lobby.
However big items like Fighters procurement is more in spot lights, thus even buying your way to politicall circle will not guaranteed. If it is, Rosoboron already secured Su-35 deal couple years ago. Now the trick is to get enough PR work with involvement toward local industry.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member


This is indeed (again) a sudden move/announcement of plans to order another new type of aircraft.

The retired F-5s need urgently to be replaced, but i dont know if the acquisition of 15 second hand downgraded Eurofighter 2000s is the best idea. After all, Austria is not happy about the price, costs, specs and other things, it seems they regret the procurement.

On the other hand, like Ananda and others already said, if the acquisition of these 15 EF2000s are a part of a complete package of more (new built) EF2000s with ToT/licence production/spare part manufacturing and sustainment package, then it can be a good choice.

But the Indonesian government need to make decisions soon, not only about F-5 replacement, but also about the 11 Su-35s, more F-16s, the KFX-project and many othet projects.

Starting from 2014 the government doesn't show the political willingness to make decisions and take action.
For more than 5 years its just an endless announcement chain of plans and wishes.
Also this letter is just "expressing an interest in acquiring Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighter".

So, once again lets wait and see.
I will be not surprised if there will be no new jetfighters coming before 2025.
 

Toptob

Active Member
The F-15EX is not a paper product, two are already under construction ( see recent posts in USAF thread). The price is supposed to be $87 million to the USAF but time will tell I guess. Previous contracts for F-15SEs were well over $100 million to the USAF and even more for export orders.
I stand corrected! But although I can't find it now I'm certain I heard somewhere that the F-15EX was going for 115 Million. But that could be a rumor or old news. Anyway, as you allude to, I doubt that an export customer could get them for those prices. Especially since the US already has everything it needs to support those planes. And Boeing does not only have some good will to win back in the US, they also have a tendency to underbid or underestimate the cost of programs. However, as you say, we will see.

I will not say hanky panky already gone from Indonesia procurement. Corrupt influence is hard to get rid off, especially with politicians. Heck, even in DC the Defense Industry still relied on their Politicall lobby.
However big items like Fighters procurement is more in spot lights, thus even buying your way to politicall circle will not guaranteed. If it is, Rosoboron already secured Su-35 deal couple years ago. Now the trick is to get enough PR work with involvement toward local industry.
I guess that's just my preconception then. But it is interesting to see how some SEA countries end up with low numbers of many different front line fighter types. The TNI AU operates F-16's, Su27, Su30 and Ta50. And now there's been all kinds of rumors for years about fighter procurement without any kind of discernible plan or selection procedure. What do they want? Is it 15 Su35? or 30 F16V? or 15 Eurofighter or more Eurofighter? Or Rafale? or KFX? Or a combination of the above? And what is the time table? Maybe all these considerations are made in secret and we're all just salivating over hearsay. But does the TNI AU at least have a plan for what they need, or are they just happy to get anything new when they can get it?



This is indeed (again) a sudden move/announcement of plans to order another new type of aircraft.

The retired F-5s need urgently to be replaced, but i dont know if the acquisition of 15 second hand downgraded Eurofighter 2000s is the best idea. After all, Austria is not happy about the price, costs, specs and other things, it seems they regret the procurement.

On the other hand, like Ananda and others already said, if the acquisition of these 15 EF2000s are a part of a complete package of more (new built) EF2000s with ToT/licence production/spare part manufacturing and sustainment package, then it can be a good choice.

But the Indonesian government need to make decisions soon, not only about F-5 replacement, but also about the 11 Su-35s, more F-16s, the KFX-project and many othet projects.

Starting from 2014 the government doesn't show the political willingness to make decisions and take action.
For more than 5 years its just an endless announcement chain of plans and wishes.
Also this letter is just "expressing an interest in acquiring Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighter".

So, once again lets wait and see.
I will be not surprised if there will be no new jetfighters coming before 2025.
I'm not really a fan of the Eurofighter, and I have a particular distaste for THESE Eurofighters! I thought it was a mistake when Austria bought these and it would be a mistake for Indonesia to buy them. The Eurofighter is not a cheap aircraft to own or operate, and these are tranche 1 hand me downs that the Germans didn't want to spend the money on to make them useful. And the nearest EF operator to Indonesia is in the Middle East and there's no real prospects for anywhere else in Asia.

But if it about an F-5 replacement, even these 3rd hand Eurofighters would be outside of the scope of what would be reasonable. The best choice for that would be more TA-50's! This is something they could afford, they know they can operate and most things are already in place at the back end. Not only would this make up some numbers at a realistic price, it would finally consolidate some combat capability onto a single type.

And while you're at it just buy a decent number of super hornets. It's not my favorite, and they're definitely not as sexy as the Rafale or Su-35. But I think the Super Hornet has definitely withstood the transformation into a 4.5th gen aircraft better than the F-16 has. Mainly because it's starting point was less spectacular, but it seems like the Super Hornet has gained some kinetic performance whereas the latest F-16's are a little less maneuverable than the old F-16A's (I know Super Hornet is a different airframe from the Hornet). And the Super Hornet is a solid performer, and it is operated by Australia which is next door and the US which is everywhere.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The TNI AU operates F-16's, Su27, Su30 and Ta50. And now there's been all kinds of rumors for years about fighter procurement without any kind of discernible plan or selection procedure. What do they want? Is it 15 Su35? or 30 F16V? or 15 Eurofighter or more
You forgot Hawk 200, so basically TNI-AU operate Hawk 200, F-16, Su-27/30. TA-50 is not part of their orbat officially as it's actually LIFT as replacement toward Hawk 50.
It's been talk on this thread for sometime on many pages, so I'll try to summarize it.

Hawk 200 being procured as A4 replacement. During 90's BAe made a deal with IPTN (DI at that time) for license manufacturing on Hawk 200. It's talk the first 2 sq manufacture directly by BAe, and DI will manufacture under license for another 2 up to 4 sq of Hawk 200. At that time Hawk 200 will be the standard attack sq for TNI-AU. It's not a secret our beloved dictator Soeharto Children have a deal on that. Still it's part of reasonable plan actually. It's even from that era, politicall standing on Indonesian administration is to try find deals that can benefit IPTN expertise and experience on Fighters manufacturing.

For Multi-role Fighters TNI-AU are trying to standardise with F-16. In the early 90's there're plan to have up to 4sq of F-16 and 4 sq of Hawk 200. As you can see the plan was actually quite sound and shown during Soeharto era they are try to standardise TNI-AU fleet.

Then come East Timor crisis, then Asian Economy Crisis, and Soeharto down fall. All those plan got hold. The budget gone, and after Soeharto era, Indonesia practically enter sic years of politicall wrangling up to 2004 or SBY era. Now during East Timor crisis when Western and Especially US embargo of Indonesian Armed Forces, politicall factions especially the Nationalistics ones come out with politicall push to diversify Indonesian defense equipment from US and Western sources. This is the era where Su-27/30 being procured.

Indonesia tell you the truth don't have much luck with Democrats Presidency. Only with JFK and Obama Indonesia have better relationship, while Indonesia usually have better luck with Republican Presidency. The time of SBY also the time for Bush Jr to get closer with Indonesia back. Thus eventough SBY still finishing the procurement of Su-27/30, but his administration begin talk to US to get more F-16. This continues with Obama, perhaps because Obama has emotional relationship with Indonesia, thus even as Democrats relationship between SBY and Obama are quite good. This resulted in one thing of Obama offer for 24 F-16 C/D ex USAF to be refurbished with budget that Indonesia already prepared for smaller number of new F-16 blk 50. Thus Indonesia choose more F-16 ex USAF being given free of charge and refurbished them to Blk 50 standard with budget that initially only enough to procure 8 brand new Blk 52.

For that you can see from the 90's up even until now, TNI-AU preference is F-16. Even now they already indicating that they prefer of at least another 2 sq of F-16V.

Su-35 is part of politicall push of so call Nationalistics factions on getting diversification from US assets in order for Indonesia not too much depends with them. This factions talk that depend much on one source has bigger strategic risk. They talk after Soekarno's Indonesia AF crippled due Soviet embargo, and after Soeharto they got crippled due to US embargo. This this kind of thinking still there, and that's why Russian still hoping Indonesia will still go through with Su-35 in the end.

How it's going to be ? Well that's all the speculation coming-out. This talk of Rafale before, or Eurofighters now also coincide with the continue talk for F-16V..or even some Boeing candidate could be happen. All this part of bargaining to get better deal that involves Local Industry.

In the end like I have post several times in this thread, the need for DI involvement can't be underestimate. In the 90's IPTN need basically help to get Hawk 200 got a deal. Before East Timor crisis, LM already in late talk for more cooperation with IPTN for more F-16.
In fact some talk in that era, stating that Bush Sr already give Ok on that cooperation. If another Republican that succeed Bush Sr and Not Clinton, perhaps even with East Timor problem, Indonesia still can get more F-16 in the 90's.

So TNI AU for sometime actually already knows what they after. However political consideration and the needs for local defense industry involvement still can push another fighters then F-16 to play.
Anyway Indonesia also watch whose going to win next US election. Some talk with my friends in Ministry of Finance, joking that we prefer another Trump round (eventough he's erratic and unpredictable), simply because he's Republican. Indonesia always nervous if Democrats win presidency. We actually got relief when Trump defeat Mrs Clinton.
 
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