Indonesian Aero News

[tonnyc]

NC 212i looks different with C 212. Is the development of C 212 into NC 212i conducted by PT Dirgantara Indonesia ?

Joint-development with Airbus. Since we lack access to internal documents we can't know the details, but articles from 2016 and earlier showed Airbus being closely involved with the NC-212i project.

About the Palapa N-1 / Nusantara 2 satellite. Palapa N1 (Nusantara 2)

So the rocket is made in china and also the satellite is made in china....
And now we lost everything, well that was predictable! Roket China Pembawa Satelit Palapa Indonesia Meledak Saat Peluncuran

Insurance is standard practice with space launches. So most of the monetary cost will be covered. The time lost though is significant. Even if they immediately start to build a replacement, it will still take maybe two years.

 

[Ananda]

NC 212i looks different with C 212. Is the development of C 212 into NC 212i conducted by PT Dirgantara Indonesia ?

NC212i Light Transport Aircraft - Airforce Technology

The NC212i light military transport aircraft is being manufactured by PT Dirgantara Indonesia (Persero), in co-operation with Airbus. It is…

www.airforce-technology.com

Add to what tonnyc wrote, this article from Airforce Technology clearly put NC212i is development from C212-400, with upgrade in Avionics and more powerful Honeywell engine.
Development together between Airbus Military and DI, signed at LIMA 2013.

DI sites put that the agreement with Airbus moved all C212-400 jigs to DI facility from Airbus Seville facilities. Then they with Airbus developed NC212i. You can say NC212i as C212 Neo.

So the rocket is made in china and also the satellite is made in china....
And now we lost everything, well that was predictable! Roket China Pembawa Satelit Palapa Indonesia Meledak Saat Peluncuran

Satelit Nusantara Dua Gagal Capai Orbit, Palapa D Masih Beroperasi

Meski satelit Nusantara Dua gagal mencapai orbit untuk menggantikan Palapa D, Indosat Ooredoo memastikan bahwa sejauh ini layanan masih berjalan normal.

m.detik.com

According to Indosat spoke person the Rocket launch is conducted with no error, but the last stage did not manage put the satellites in right orbit. Based what he said, there's lot of space debris at third stage path. Seems the satellite or the third stage could hit space debris.

Kronologi Satelit "Nusantara Dua" Gagal Mengorbit Kemudian Hancur

Satelit Nusantara Dua atau Palapa N-1 yang diluncurkan di China, gagal mengorbit, apa penyebabnya?

amp.kompas.com

Correction, seems from this Kompas Article, the problem more on the third stage rocket failures. Still the result still same, the third stage doesn't get enough velocity thus fall back to the sea.

 

[ChestnutTree]

BI as central Bank few days ago told market that they already secured guarantee line from Fed's in the amount of USD 60bio.
That announcement help stabilize market panics much. That line represents half of Indonesia Forex Reserve. That line guarantee BI to have USD 180 bio of USD liquidity (120 forex reserve + 60 bio Fed's line), which is big for Indonesian market or any Asia-Pacific market save China or Japan.
That's not like a credit line from IMF that have a lot off condition (like they do in 1998), this is like interbank line that can be drawn anytime.
I don't think those line will be use, but this line represents and provide more confidence to the market compared to any potential credit line from World Bank, IMF, or other countries credit support.

You can expect that our possition to US vis a vis China or Russia will not be what they call 'sitting on the fence' anymore.
Thus, forget about Su-35, even Airbus will have difficulty after this against Boeing in Indonesian procurement.

Indonesia Says New York Fed Offers $60 Billion Credit Line

Indonesia’s central bank said the New York Federal Reserve will provide it with a $60 billion repurchase facility to help with liquidity needs amid a dollar shortage triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.

www.bloomberg.com

Is this the article you were referring to?

It'll be interesting to see how things will play out in the coming years. In my experience a lot of top brass and politicians dislike having to deal with the US as their deals are harder to corrupt than Rosonoboroexport or any of the top European primes.

 

[Ananda]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Is this the article you were referring to?

Yes, this is the Repo Line that I mentioned on my previous post.

Fed to provide $60 billion repo line to Indonesia's central bank

Bank of Indonesia governor, Perry Warjiyo, confirms The Indonesian central bank did say that they have no plan yet to use the funds from the repo line but sees

www.forexlive.com

This article I put cause it explains is short simple way what's mean of Repo Line. It simply means BI as Indonesia Central Bank can draw up to USD 60 bio anytime. Repo line is not a credit line in conventional term, but more to guarantee line to draw the amount on the margin being approved before.
Thus as it's not credit or liabilities instrument in conventional way (like bonds), the line can't be calculated on Forex Reserve. If Government of Indonesia issuing USD or other Forex denomination bonds, it can be calculated as Forex Reserve. As just like new investment coming or fund from export.

However just as many articles said and as I have put before, I don't think BI will used the line, since their own forex reserve still adequate. It's more on confidence confirmation/boosting from Fed's on Indonesian economy/market.
Politically it's very important, as to tell market that US will support Indonesia on potential market turmoils due to COVID 19.
USD still global currency, any market turmoils, the imvestors will go to the most liquid assets in the world, which is USD. As USD liquidity in the end control by US through Fed's, then any liquidity support of USD like this, means same as politicall US support.

As a lot off politicians and their cronies brass did not like to have US procurement, well I have talking this over and over when talking on the transparency of procurement contracts.
US procurement is not 100% guaranteed will eliminate 'hanky-panky' in MinDef procurement, but it will make it much more difficults.

You can always see why some political and MinDef factions like to deal with Chinese and Rosoboron..those guys mostly come from same factions..which always talk on Nationalism and Foreign Politics independent.
Those talks give them 'excuse' to goes to non Western procurement which give less transparency.

Politics is corrupt, even in Washington DC..we just have to goes to any political deals and procurement that are relative more transparent.
That's why I say time to time that SBY era procurement relative better planned, better implementation due to less 'conflicting interest factions' involved.

 

[Ahmad]

There is no news about the development of ongoing renegotiation of KFX/IFX program. Our Defense Ministry office also doesnt give any information as well or even a slight of hint over this matter. Considering we have been in the middle of April now, we should have heard some news about it.

Jokowi administration doesnt give much attention on research, same thing happen with previous government. I think as new leader will soon replace those old generation, I believe significant amount of money will be given for research purposes starting at 2026 when new budget set by new administration start to take effect. Then from that year we can hope that this nation can follow China footstep on developing home ground technology inshaAllah.

Any way, huge amount of infrastructure investment and village development have already taken so much money since 2016 so that mean our infrastructure will be quite good in 2025 that will then fasten our economic growth for some long years to come. Our economy will also likely to be much bigger in 2026 so that by freezing (not stopping) the spending on infrastructure in the new administration budget we will have significant money to spend on other areas like research.

I am a long term vision guy and feel that we dont have any immediate threat rather than some border issue with China in North Natuna Sea that will not likely to escalate into any major military conflict. China will not want to lose good relationship with Indonesia since they have benefited from the trade with us. So we need to spend more on research and always prioritize our defense procurement on domestic defense product.

Our defense procurement spending must grow naturally, following our economy growth. Recent estimation by British institution has projected Indonesia economy to reach 3.2 trillion dollar in 2034 if we can keep growing at 5-5.5 percent along the period. That is about the same with India GDP estimation in 2020 (Before Covid 19 outbreak) and you know guys how much India spend on defense last year ? Its huge and India also has more population then Indonesia and also good spending on its rocket progam. What we must make sure is to avoid the defense spending nature of Saudi who rely on foreign equipment when we someday inshaAllah have similar defense budget like them.

We should follow Chinese steps.

 

[Ananda]

Jokowi administration doesnt give much attention on research, same thing happen with previous government

I don't want to get into politics, the mod's in here will not like it. However which government/administration that you meant ?
Soeharto through Habibie doing much more interest on research compared to administration after them. Habibie already put enough projects that if not due to Asian financial crisis and down fall of Soeharto some projects like:
- Type 209 Submarine, Corvettes and Light Frigates (with Fincantieri), MCWV (mine counter warfare vessels), will already begin to build by PAL since 90's.
- DI (IPTN) will involve not only with N250 and N2130 but also license manufacturing of Hawk 200, SSM and 300-500 km Cruise Missile. This also light helicopters project with Airbus Helicopter to replace BO-105.
- As for Satellite Launch Vehicle, as I have said, Soeharto choose deliberately not to develop, in order not to be seen as having plan for balistics missiles. That's why in aerospace his administration through Habibie more interested to develop Airplane then rockets.

All the infrastructure like Subway system already being prepared during Soeharto era.
Also those current and next projects by PAL, DI, and Pindad, being prepared by SBY administration. Our involvement with KFX/IFX also coming from SBY. Lapan if follow up SBY plan should already have small satellite launch vehicle toward Low Atmosphere by now.

Thus this administration attention to resarch is 'worse' then previous administrations. This again because like I say time to time there's too much interest parties around this administration that make SBY compromise on his administration fare better compared to current ones.
We can see how messed up this administration handling on early days of COVID 19. It's just being tidied up a bit now, hoping this is not too late.

am a long term vision guy and feel that we dont have any immediate threat rather than some border issue with China in North Natuna Sea that will not likely to escalate into any major military conflict. China will not want to lose good relationship with Indonesia since they have benefited from the trade with us

Asean now as block provide more trade to China compared to EU. However can we guarantee China not having aggressive actions in SCS ? They doing more aggressive Politics toward some of Asean members especially the ones they can intimidated. Which why we can't afford to shown submissive, due to China behavior so far that can 'push' aggressive Politics toward neighbours that shown being intimidated by them.
Trade is not guarantee that we can get good neighbourly behavior from China.

Look what China doing with Asean countries that sharing Mekong River. They build dam that control the flow of the river on their will. Is that a good neighbor behavior ?

We should follow Chinese steps.

If you mean their policies on developing more technological based, then yes. But not following their aggressive intimidating policies. That's not a good way to have lasting good relationship in the neighborhood.

 

[Ahmad]

I don't want to get into politics, the mod's in here will not like it. However which government/administration that you meant ?

As I have said, all of them. I said they dont pay much attention on research, and I dont say they dont pay any attention at all on research, they do. One of the main reason of why I said it due to the fact that our researcher in all of the administration dont get enough salary from the government. Their salary dont have any different with other civil servant despite their strategic role in our technology development.

Even when Finance ministry civil servant get better salary starting at SBY administration, our researcher working in BPPT/LIPI/LAPAN still have similar salary like another civil servant. This make the best graduates from our university dont want to work on those research agency, they prefer working in MNC, big private local companies, or even for the brightest one seeking employment in Western countries or Singapore/Malaysia.

This is why for instant my cousin graduated from fourth rate state university can work in our research agency and is dealing with the most sophisticated technology like AI where he only can afford small home in Bandung with no family either (not yet married) while my other cousin finish his education in University of Indonesia as the best graduates in STEM faculty and working for Toyota Indonesia Manufacturing. This show that our research are not done by our brightest brain since the state doesnt see them as important enough to be paid with high salary. And this thing has been going on since Soeharto regime.

And also those research agency (BPPT/LAPAN/LIPI) only have few budget since Soeharto administration until now. There is few increase happening in every year, but not significant. LAPAN for instant have openly said they dont have enough researcher due to the budgetary problem.

Soeharto through Habibie doing much more interest on research compared to administration after them. Habibie already put enough projects that if not due to Asian financial crisis and down fall of Soeharto some projects like:
- Type 209 Submarine, Corvettes and Light Frigates (with Fincantieri), MCWV (mine counter warfare vessels), will already begin to build by PAL since 90's.
- DI (IPTN) will involve not only with N250 and N2130 but also license manufacturing of Hawk 200, SSM and 300-500 km Cruise Missile. This also light helicopters project with Airbus Helicopter to replace BO-105.
- As for Satellite Launch Vehicle, as I have said, Soeharto choose deliberately not to develop, in order not to be seen as having plan for balistics missiles. That's why in aerospace his administration through Habibie more interested to develop Airplane then rockets.

All the infrastructure like Subway system already being prepared during Soeharto era.
Also those current and next projects by PAL, DI, and Pindad, being prepared by SBY administration. Our involvement with KFX/IFX also coming from SBY. Lapan if follow up SBY plan should already have small satellite launch vehicle toward Low Atmosphere by now.

Soeharto regime focuses more on building our strategic companies like PTDI/PTPAL/PTLEN/PTINTI/PTINKA/PTPINDAD and others who are part of 15 state owned strategic companies. It is good as it will become our foundation to manufacture any result from our research. But in term of pure research I dont think he pay much attention on it but we need to give him credit for our aerospace sector development.

Soeharto for instant doesnt give any meaningful attention to semi conductor research, material research, turbo jet research etc.

We have enough bright engineer and the fruit can be taken now if he had that long vision and spend some money for those things:

One example of it.

Samaun Samadikun - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Vision
In the 1970s, he proposed to Indonesian government and industries at the time to do research and development of microelectronic devices domestically. His proposal and dream never got realized until his death. During his life, he was never tired to dream that someday there would be chip fabrication industries built in Indonesia. He was also active in the planning of Bandung High Tech Valley (BHTV) which tries to replicate the success of California's Silicon Valley in Indonesia.

- DI (IPTN) will involve not only with N250 and N2130 but also license manufacturing of Hawk 200, SSM and 300-500 km Cruise Missile.

Could you give me link and further information about that cruise missile program. It is the first time I heard Soeharto/Habibie ever has ambition on that

Thus this administration attention to resarch is 'worse' then previous administrations. This again because like I say time to time there's too much interest parties around this administration that make SBY compromise on his administration fare better compared to current ones.
We can see how messed up this administration handling on early days of COVID 19. It's just being tidied up a bit now, hoping this is not too late.

I agree that this administration is the worst in term of funding our research compared to previous administration except Gusdur and Mega although those administration only had few years. SBY though is very late in funding N 219.

This administration has capability to do much more since state revenue is also increasing rapidly but Jokowi tend to spend more on infrastructure and village development with so few left for research. He even joint Minister of Research with higher education to make people think Minister of Research got huge funding where the fact is 90 percent budget went to higher education and we can see how small ministry of research budget is after he put higher education back to Ministry of Education after he won his second term.

Asean now as block provide more trade to China compared to EU. However can we guarantee China not having aggressive actions in SCS ? They doing more aggressive Politics toward some of Asean members especially the ones they can intimidated. Which why we can't afford to shown submissive, due to China behavior so far that can 'push' aggressive Politics toward neighbours that shown being intimidated by them.
Trade is not guarantee that we can get good neighbourly behavior from China.

Look what China doing with Asean countries that sharing Mekong River. They build dam that control the flow of the river on their will. Is that a good neighbor behavior ?

I dont say we need to be submissive as I see current policy in SCS is already enough and perfect. What I want to say is that we dont need to spend much money on military equipment for the next 10 years and should give more attention on research and developing our state owned defense companies. In term of procurement, our government should prioritize our own defense companies just like what China did in the past when China was still weak. Our defense budget should grow naturally by following our GDP growth and also state budget growth. Not much threat IMO until the next 20 years which is also agreed by Jokowi strategist and dont forget that USA will still be quite strong and can balance China in SCS until 20 years from now.

The disputed area between Indonesian and China in SCS is also not something that can be seen as strategic by China so that I believe China will not act as aggressive as they act with Vietnamese and Philippine. But I dont say we dont need to prepare but it is so weird to say we can buy 2 billion dollar for 11 jet fighters while in the same time only have 1.5 trillion Rupiah for BPPT and 800 billion Rupiah for Lapan.

If you mean their policies on developing more technological based, then yes. But not following their aggressive intimidating policies. That's not a good way to have lasting good relationship in the neighborhood.

Yup, what I mean is to follow their policy in developing their home grown technology. If we can give good salary to our researcher and put good attention on our research agency and also strategic state owned companies, I believe we can do what China do now inshaAllah.

 

[Ananda]

As I have said, all of them. I said they dont pay much attention on research, and I dont say they dont pay any attention at all on research, they do. One of the main reason of why I said it due to the fact that our researcher in all of the administration dont get enough salary from the government. Their salary dont have any different with other civil servant despite their strategic role in our technology development.

No government can't provide enough research funds. Not even China and US. The government duties is to help facilitate building enough advance tech based industries that can fund the research and absorb the research result for commercial uses.

That's what Soeharto and Habibie's try to do. I'm not try to glorified Soeharto, he's without doubt a dictator (but so did Soekarno's in his last decade in power). He's corrupt (in fact so did Soekarno, it's just on his time there's much more less money available), but frankly speaking so does all administration after him. In fact his corruption can be considered controlled corruption since everything must goes to his children companies.

However in term of vision on development, he got better vision compared to all President before him and after him. Many of the development including infrastructure plan still follow blue print being prepared from his time. Trans Java and Trans Sumatra highways for example was not coming from Jokowi's. It's blue print planning being prepared by Bapenas and BBPT from Soeharto era that being bring up by SBY and follow by Jokowi.
The plan to move Capital also already planned in Soeharto era. However the plan will only move to area close to Jakarta. Just like Malaysia move capital/government seat from KL to nearby new city of Putra Jaya.

So I just try to corrected a bit on your statement that Jokowi's and all administration before him were not doing enough research job. Soeharto has more visions on development including research compared all administration after him. And that's a very sad part.

I got relative and friends in Batan (Nuclear Agency) that talk on how Habibie under Soeharto direct more research initiatives on nuclear including finding uranium deposit, reactor tech for potential development of Nuclear generated Power, iradiators for large scale sterilization commercial used coming from initiatives in Soeharto era.
I've seen facilities on Metallurgical research that originated from Soeharto era that sadly not being renewed by administration after him. Only recently some aspects of metallurgical research got interest, and that's not from government but from local Industry.

Could you give me link and further information about that cruise missile program. It is the first time I heard Soeharto/Habibie ever has ambition on that

Sadly I can't, since many publication like TSM in the 80's and 90's has no online sources. Just remembered at 80's during first Aerospace show, I got a chance to see BPPT(or IPTN ones bit forgot on that) pavilion where they shown plan on future aerospace program including Light Helicopters with Airbus (asside much publicity N250 and N2130). There's on corner booth on rocket and missiles where after initial unguided rocket (which IPTN already did on 70mm unguided), there's plan for late 90's for SSM on Exocet class and later on in early 2000 for cruise missiles up to 300-500 km.
However Soeharto stop on that. He doesn't want to develop Satellite Launch vehicle, in order to stop suspicion that he wants balistics missile capabilities. That's why Lapan being side line by Habibie.

My point is even at that time, their vision is clearer than present ones. So if you see some vision on missile being cooked up..I got suspicion that's probably it's old plan being dusted up from Soeharto's/Habibie's era.

What I want to say is that we dont need to spend much money on military equipment for the next 10 years and should give more attention on research and developing our state owned defense companies.

How we should not spending more money on Defense, when China keep pumping money on their Armed Forces ?
Spending money for research and development of local Defense Industry has to be done in parallel with development and modernization of our own Armed Forces.
Again behavior of China is something that can't be guaranteed. China want to have submissive neighbours. They want to be the big boy that control the neighborhood.
I have talked time and time on Indonesian thread or thread related to SCS or regional security. Indonesia will never has abilities to compete with China armed forces development on one to one parity. However what China's neighbors need to build is cumulative development that combination of them eventough still not match China in parity but shown China enough 'bite power' to make them thread more carefully.

Trade alone sadly so far seems not enough to guarantee controlled behavior from China.

 

[Ananda]

Just add my thought on diversification of Air Force assets toward US/Western originated and Russia/China originated.
I have talked from time to time how Transparencies can be depend on any procurement related to origination of assets. Based on several projects (defense and non Defense) that I watch as a Bankers, I can rank level of transparency (at least on documentation of origin and payment).

1. Japan,
2. US,
3. Switzerland,
4. Singapore,
5. EU,
6. UK,
7. South Korea,
8. Taiwan,
9. China,
10. Russia.

This related to how strict their regulations on transparency of payment, origin of fund, usage of payment, beneficiary of payment, and procurement contracts dicipline.

This 10, I made shown where the capital goods (defense or commercial ones) to Indonesia mostly originated. I rank it on transparency level not on the amount of Import capital goods. In such the lower the level, the more potential we are not getting the information on real beneficiary due to loop hole on the contract transparency. On other word the higher the ranks, the more stringent their respective regulators on policing the contract.

So for me, those factions that want to pursue hard on capital assets procurement from Russia or China, just for the sake of diversification or to avoid political sanction. Then l have to think also on the aspects they are perhaps want to reduce transparency issues.

If you do not want to relied on much with US or UK or other Western suppliers, but still want to maintain reasonable level of transparency (in order to reduce hanky panky on our Military procurement), then buy French.

Why French, well their assets still can be integrated with US ones (compared to buying Russian or Chinese), this maintain relative similar support infrastructure still possible.
French is not to picky on foreign politics, thus they probably will not following US policies too much. The downside is their assets is more expensive to procured and maintain.

However setting two sets of support infrastructure if buying Russian/Chinese assets will also be more expensive in long run. Unless if you like India or Vietnam that already build huge Russian support infrastructure. In that case, buying Western can provide opposite effect compared to Indonesia (especially TNI AU).

Perhaps this is why there's talk on potential procurement of 48 (or 3 sq) of Rafale. Perhaps this was Prabowo's MinDef thinking on alternative instead buying Russian or US.

Well that's just my two cents.

 

[ChestnutTree]

In other news, the NASAMS infrastructure seems to have been built already. I assume it's one of the few projects that survived the budget slash. Hopefully they would integrate them with the Oerlikon's already in service. The Air Force often times seem to be the only service that genuinely understands the value of datalinking/networking their assets together.

 

[Ahmad]

There is no news about KFX/IFX program for the last 3 months but this news maybe reveal that the cooperation between Indonesia and Korea is still relatively fine for both KFX/IFX and also for another 3 submarines contract.

"Korea Aerospace Industries said Wednesday it has donated 10,000 coronavirus test kits to Indonesia as a sign of solidarity amid the global pandemic. "

KAI donates 10,000 test kits to Indonesia

Korea Aerospace Industries said Wednesday it has donated 10,000 coronavirus test kits to Indonesia as a sign of solidarity amid the global pandemic. The defense company and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering together donated 10,000 coronavirus test kits to Indonesia, which was the first...

www.koreaherald.com

 

[Ahmad]

Alhamdulillah. Senegal signed another contract for another CN 235 from PT DIrgantara Indonesia. This contract will keep CN 235 production line busy at least for another 1 year since it has almost completed the last CN 235 plane from previous contract. The contract was signed this May in Senegal and intended to build 1 CN 235 MPA for Senegal Armed Force. So far Senegal has bought 5 CN 235 from PTDI with the first 2 are second hand and the rest are new plane.


Senegal representative visit PTDI in March this year to look the production of its ordered CN 235 plane

Untuk ketiga kalinya, Senegal beli pesawat CN-235 buatan PTDI

Pemerintah Senegal untuk ketiga kalinya melakukan pembelian unit CN-235 buatan PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI), yang akan digunakan sebagai pesawat patroli ...

www.antaranews.com

 

[Ananda]

Proyek Drone 'Tendang' Pesawat Warisan BJ Habibie dari PSN

Ada beberapa proyek baru yang masuk dalam daftar PSN, ada pula yang dikeluarkan seperti proyek pesawat R80 dan N245.

m.detik.com

Today, Indonesian President Jokowi decided that from 245 Project that being submitted before as National Project, only 89 being agree as National Strategic Project (PSN/Proyek Strategist National).

Ada 89 proyek yang direkomendasikan jadi PSN Baru

Ada 89 proyek yang direkomendasikan jadi PSN Baru.

nasional.kontan.co.id

Related to Aerospace project, only 3 project being approved and all related to Drones/UAV development.
Thus several fixed wing commercial project like DI N245 or Regio Aviasi R80 (both aimed to build regional turboprop at ATR class) being omitted from National Project. It means those projects will not getting Government Money support, thus the producers (DI and Regio Aviasi) need to find Private Investors if they want to continue the project.

Most of 89 projects related to Infrastructure development and Industry related to support added value products. Thus this administration seems to think development of UAV technology is more preferable for Indonesia current situation, rather then developing commercial Airliners.

In this sense, considering the situation on commercial Airliners market for foreseable future, I do tend to agree on that. Personally I don't think R80 is suitable to develop anyway on using state support. It's too niche market and the capabilities is only slightly better than N245 (which is development of CN 235 without ramp door). Even if government want to support, it should only one project, and it should be DI project as it's more financially affordable.
For R80, should using private investors money. If no private investors attracted to the project, this shown that commercial wise, the project does not have good prospect anyway.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

"Most of 89 projects related to Infrastructure development and Industry related to support added value products. Thus this administration seems to think development of UAV technology is more preferable for Indonesia current situation, rather then developing commercial Airliners."

Yes, so a 45-50 seats commuter airliner/transport aircraft has nothing to do with infrastructure....
Maybe i am too dumb to understand their policy.
Its better if they give full support on the N219 project, it seems there is no much development in the certification.


Now something about the KFX.
Of course they want to blame the Covid-19 Crisis for it, but our beloved government had to pay already in september last year..

Indonesia Telat (Lagi) dalam Pembayaran Angsuran Proyek Jet Tempur KFX/IFX

Lepas dari masa pandemi Covid-19 yang memberi tekanan pada anggaran pertahanan, Indonesia pun sudah telat dalam kewajiban pembayaran pada proyek jet tempur KFX/IFX. Sejauh ini Indonesia telah membayar 272,2 miliar won, namun Indonesia gagal membayar 301 miliar won yang seharusnya dibayar pada...

www.indomiliter.com

Well its clear that this administration actually wants to cancel the participation of the KFX project.

 

[Ananda]

Yes, so a 45-50 seats commuter airliner/transport aircraft has nothing to do with infrastructure....
Maybe i am too dumb to understand their policy.
Its better if they give full support on the N219 project, it seems there is no much development in the certification.

Somehow I still see possibility of N245 being financed through some scheme in DI. The project is derived from CN235, thus the development cost still manageable even doing by DI itself (assuming DI other project going on schedule). N219 development will have some delays, and I believe even those newly strategic projects too during this COVID 19.

The administration will not going to finance new projects unless they already shown they have manage to control this COVID 19 situation somewhat. I believe this happen to all administration globally. Look at China, after they "relatively" manage to control their COVID situation, then they begin publicly going somewhere else on other projects.

Now, my beef is with this R80, and I already stated on my older post, this project has no place to be finance by the state. Simply this project has no merit commercially. This is a very niche market the Turboprop Airliners. N245 besides will be relatively affordable as build based on CN235, it's also 'only' for 40+ passanger. Thus for the range of 1000-1200km, it's fit nicely to small short range thin route between smaller airport/communities.

However for R80, it's for 70-80 capacity with the range at 1500-2000km. It's very niche market that now already filled by established players like ATR72, DASH8, or even Chinese MA-60. Due to it's capacities R80 (and it's kind) will have less economics to play on 1000km market. However playing at 1500-2000km market will face crowded market of existing Turboprop as mentioned above and regional jets like A220, E series, Sukhoi Superjet and Mitsubishi MRJ (or SpaceJet they called now) or Jets like CRJ1000 series.
With the improvement on smaller regional Airports throughout the World, cheaper Fuel Price for foreseable future, more efficient Jet engines, not only this R80, even the existing players like ATR will face difficulty in long run playing on 1500-2000km range.

Turboprop in my opinion only good nowdays for up to +/-1000km or 600miles range. That's the range that still economically serve by turboprop up to for 50 passanger capacities as they only serve small communities.
Look at example of route between Denpasar Bali to Labuan Bajo (gateway on Komodo Islands). Now it's used to be a perfect choices for ATR72 when the airport still small and limited capacities.
That's why Garuda Group and Lion Air Group operate ATR on that route. However since the Airport being enlarge, then it can take jets up to A320 class, which make the Airlines begin to switch to Jets as it can fly faster with more passanger. Thus provide more Economics per seat for Airliners. This shown with more regional domestic Airports being enlarge world wide, the 1500-2000km range that used to be Turboprop domain, begin to be filled by regional jets.

So if sometime in the future, the state still want to 'indirectly' support DI on N245 with perhaps some other scheme, it is still much preferable then helping finance this R80 project. This Regio Aviasi (RAI) should find their own private Investors to finance their R80 project, and good luck on that finding private Investors to finance it. Don't ask the state thus the tax payers financing the projects that commercially not feasible in the long run

 

[Ananda]

Military Watch Magazine

militarywatchmagazine.com

This article shown how Russia still fight for the market that used mostly Western System.
I stated on my old post that CAATSA problem can be circumstances by buying more US products (this article seems shown that possibility too).

However as Indonesian Armed Forces especially the AF/TNI-AU wants to build network centric environment capabilities, then Russia need to let their Su-35 being mate with Western System for possible networking with F-16 that seems will become more numerous assets in TNI-AU and all other TNI-AU ground radars and electronics that already build on Western or Western License assets.

Potential Western based systems that Russia can put (based on their experience with other Flankers clients) either with French Sagem or Israel Elbits. Considering using Israel assets will be another political sensitive nature in Indonesia, then French avionics and sensors is the most potential that can be mated for SU-35 to TNI-AU. Another potential is SAAB ones, as SAAB also from what I heard begin selling avionics packages.

Already heard rumours that Russia also offer to provide full sq of 16 or 18 SU-35 (as the contract only for 10-11) in exchange for TNI-AU returning the existing SU-27/30 in the inventory.
In other words those existing 16 Flankers will be replaced by additional 5-7 SU-35.

Again all still rumours, but clearly the capabilities for networking with existing TNI-AU assets, actually more in mind of TNI-AU/MinDef rather than just CAATSA problem. Besides The Russian must prepared discount on their SU-35 to make it attractive for TNI-AU as cost on mating Western avionics on limited number of SU-35 will be substantial.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Military Watch Magazine

militarywatchmagazine.com

This article shown how Russia still fight for the market that used mostly Western System.
I stated on my old post that CAATSA problem can be circumstances by buying more US products (this article seems shown that possibility too).

However as Indonesian Armed Forces especially the AF/TNI-AU wants to build network centric environment capabilities, then Russia need to let their Su-35 being mate with Western System for possible networking with F-16 that seems will become more numerous assets in TNI-AU and all other TNI-AU ground radars and electronics that already build on Western or Western License assets.

Potential Western based systems that Russia can put (based on their experience with other Flankers clients) either with French Sagem or Israel Elbits. Considering using Israel assets will be another political sensitive nature in Indonesia, then French avionics and sensors is the most potential that can be mated for SU-35 to TNI-AU. Another potential is SAAB ones, as SAAB also from what I heard begin selling avionics packages.

Already heard rumours that Russia also offer to provide full sq of 16 or 18 SU-35 (as the contract only for 10-11) in exchange for TNI-AU returning the existing SU-27/30 in the inventory.
In other words those existing 16 Flankers will be replaced by additional 5-7 SU-35.

Again all still rumours, but clearly the capabilities for networking with existing TNI-AU assets, actually more in mind of TNI-AU/MinDef rather than just CAATSA problem. Besides The Russian must prepared discount on their SU-35 to make it attractive for TNI-AU as cost on mating Western avionics on limited number of SU-35 will be substantial.

Thanks for sharing.
Negotiations about the acquisition of the Su-35 took several years, the contract was at last signed in begin 2018. After that nothing happen, and that was before the whole Covid-19 crisis, so now its actually for sure that nothing will happen the next 5 years.

 

[Ananda]

Turboprop in my opinion only good nowdays for up to +/-1000km or 600miles range. That's the range that still economically serve by turboprop up to for 50 passanger capacities as they only serve small communities.

Bos RAI Blak-blakan soal Kelanjutan Proyek R80 BJ Habibie

Pemerintah memutuskan menghapus dua proyek pengembangan pesawat, yakni R80 dan N245 dari PSN.

www.cnbcindonesia.com

I'm on my ranting mode. Come on how rediculous this company (RAI) is. Talking in media as if their project, this R80 is like 'holy grail' for Indonesian technology projects. This R80 is nothing, it's a project that nobody commercially want to finance.

The government thus as The Nation should not help the project that originated by a private company as state project. Their 'tantrum' in media due Government take out their R80 project from State Strategic Project, shown what really happened.
Their project can't get enough commercial support from any Investors and as Banker I can tell no Bank in Indonesia or regionally ever consider financing this company or this R80 project.

The project for Turboprop like this, that can only provide marginally similar capabilities with ATR72 or DASH 8 is simply not attractive anymore. That's why they are asking and lobbying Government help, as no deep pockets commerciall Investors willing to financed them to begin with. Despite in the first this company talking in media that many local and foreign Investors already attracted to their project.

Look at the market of Turboprop, ATR72 being used by Indonesian Garuda and Wings Air of Lion Air Group. However even Garuda now begin taking out ATR72 from their fleet, and no new order of ATR coming from Lion Air group. This simply due the market demand for this kind of Turboprop is shrinking.
Government around the World improving Airport infrastructure that making many more Airport able take on Single Aisle Jet of Regional Class.
I remember long time ago when I take my study in US, taking flight from Chicago to Iowa with ATR. However now I heard that route and many similar route that used to be served by ATR now being served by regional Jets like E series or now A220. Simply due to better economics of regional jets compared to Turboprop on the range above 1000km. The market for regional of 800-1000 miles (1500-2000km) range now are more attractive by Airlines being operate with Regional Jets and not large turboprop anymore.

Less than 600 miles or 1000KM regional route perhaps can still be served by Turboprop up to 50 passanger. That's the project need to be supported by Government, and that's the project that DI will do with N245. It's a Turboprop project that still make sense commercially, and not this R80.

Hopefully this Administration and Other Administration after this will not wasting State Resources thus Indonesian Tax Payers money on this R80 ever. I'm very critical with this Administration policies throughout time as my post show it. However for this time I agree on their decision to take out R80 from their Strategic Project.

All right, I'm done my ranting on this R80. Off course this company RAI will try their lobby (and they still have some political backing). I just hope, if any Turboprop project need to be supported, then the support only goes for project that relatively still make sense such as N245 due still more economical to develop. This RAI project should never being financed or help by Government and DI resources should never be used for an 'uncommercially' viable project called R80.

 

[tonnyc]

I have always thought that the R-80 project is banking on Habibie's name too much. While B.J. Habibie's legacy is to be respected, doesn't mean we have to pay for a commercially unviable aircraft.

Context for the non-Indonesians:
Back in the '80s it was B.J. Habibie's idea to work with CASA of Spain to make a regional turboprop aircraft. His idea was to use that to kickstart the domestic aircraft industry. The result was CN-235. After the CN-235 Habibie wanted to make the N-250 which would use the best available technology at the time and be the best turboprop at the time. The prototype was unveiled in 1995. Problem was, no airline wanted it. Airlines don't care about best. They want cheap but good enough. Then the 1998 Asian Economic Crisis hit.

Indonesian Aerospace learned from the experience. These days they came up with the N-219 and N-245 which was simpler and economical. It's uncertain whether they'll be a commercial success and with the pandemic it's not even certain if it will be made, but at least on paper they made sense.

Habibie though never got over it. The R80 is a bigger N250. He wanted it built. It will be bigger, better. There'll be cost savings too, since what was cutting edge in the eighties is now commonplace. But as before he didn't exactly survey the market first.

Anyway, the man has passed away now but his sons took up the mantle and fought for it and the government gave them some money out of respect for his name and legacy. There is even a local crowdfunding effort that managed to collect several hundred thousand dollars, which isn't a small sum for us, but is way inadequate to build a plane.

So that's the background info on the R80 project. It's no loss.

 

[John Fedup]

One point from a North American perspective. There are many destinations that regional turboprops serve in the 300-600 mi range. Given the cramped cabinets in regional turboprop aircraft and the very good highway network here, driving will be a realistic option for commercial travellers due to COVID.