The Current Conflict In Syria

Pentaprism · Feb 29, 2020

Feanor said:
I'm not sure if I buy Turkish claims regarding Syrian air defense failures. I haven't really had time to look into it but on at least some Russian sites they were claiming that the Turkish video of a Pantsyr getting hit is from a video game. They've shot down Israeli PGMs, but can't shoot down some Turkish UAVs? I can't help but wonder if the real issue is that the Syrians don't have much in the way of air defense in and around Idlib.

Yep good point. Reportedly at least one Russian supply Ships on the way to Tartus. Wonder if they have some Air Defence Hardward on board?

Ananda · Feb 29, 2020

Pentaprism said:
But perhaps Erdogan should pose the same question to himself. He was one of the key Supporters of the move to get rid of Assad from the start. I'm not sure what sort of threat Assad posed to him, perhaps you Guys can enlighten me? Anyway he supported the Rebels from the start and provided much of their strength to wage a long war that has seemingly reaped little benefit for Turkey or anyone else

Iran's Rouhani says innocent people in Syria's Idlib should be protected: TV

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his Turkish counterpart on Saturday that innocent people should be protected in Syria's northwest province, as tensions rose between Moscow and Ankara over the fighting there.

www.reuters.com

Just add what Iran position on this. However what Erdogan say to Russia or possibly to Iran seems a move to tell in advance that Turkey will launch back counter punch to Syrian force. Thus if any Russian force getting in cross fire, Turkey can say, I already told you so.

Turkey (at least Erdogan Regime) clearly in possition to tell Europe that the price for not opening gate to refugees, EU will have to pay them more in supporting their campaign in Syria. In my reading on Turkey talk to NATO or Erdogan talk with Trump, is not the request for NATO intervention, but more on getting additional resources and perhaps money for more long term campaign in Syria.

Erdogan is betting a lot domestically on this operation. Seeing Turkish forum and media, clearly Turkish domestic talk on dissatisfaction of how Erdogan handle Syrian situation is increasing. I don't see that Syrian policy by Erdogan is aimed on solely Geopolitics, it's much related to domestic audiences also. Turkey domestic mood over Assad already darker for sometime, considering Assad give refuge to PKK even before Syrian civil war.
For Erdogan, he sell this Syrian incursion policy as part to save Turkey southeast border against PKK and other Kurdish potential support.

It's Kurdish matter that Turkey domestic care..they don't really care whose control Syria..as long as it's against Kurdish/PKK ambition. While many still see Assad will continue using PKK as part of his anti-Turkey policies. At least that's what I see on looking to Turkish domestic mood, based on their media and forums tones.

Feanor · Feb 29, 2020

Ananda said:
Turkey (at least Erdogan Regime) clearly in possition to tell Europe that the price for not opening gate to refugees, EU will have to pay them more in supporting their campaign in Syria. In my reading on Turkey talk to NATO or Erdogan talk with Trump, is not the request for NATO intervention, but more on getting additional resources and perhaps money for more long term campaign in Syria.

He's already turned loose the refugee floodgates, likely as a response to the lack of western support. There have even been reports of Turkish troops preventing refugees from re-entering Turkey when they are stopped at the Greek border, and of Turkish troops firing tear gas grenades at the Greeks.

Erdogan also stated that he will continue to allow refugees to travel to Europe. In response to all of this Bulgaria has deployed additional troops to their border, although so far it's Greece that's feeling the pressure. The timing is interesting, given recent issues over migrant and refugee housing centers in Greece (Lesbos and Chios in particular).

Потоки беженцев хлынули к границам с ЕС через открытое Турцией окно (ВИДЕО)

По словам турецкого президента, после того, как Турция решила не препятствовать проходу беженцев через свои границы, в Европу ринулись 18 тысяч человек, а за субботу это число вырастет до 30 тысяч. В Греции на границе произошли столкновения полиции с мигрантами.

classic.newsru.com

Болгария усилила охрану границы после отказа Турции сдерживать поток беженцев в Европу

Через северо-западные районы Турции к границам Болгарии и Греции устремились сотни беженцев. После телефонного разговора с президентом Турции Эрдоганом премьер Болгарии Борисов заявил, что миграционной угрозы для Болгарии на турецкой границе нет. Но с Эрдоганом он встретится в понедельник.

classic.newsru.com

Greek authorities scramble to calm tensions over migrant detention camp

Violent scenes underscore resistance to construction of camps on Lesbos and other Aegean islands

www.theguardian.com

Ananda · Mar 1, 2020

Feanor said:
He's already turned loose the refugee floodgates, likely as a response to the lack of western support. There have even been reports of Turkish troops preventing refugees from re-entering Turkey when they are stopped at the Greek border, and of Turkish troops firing tear gas grenades at the Greeks.

Erdogan really desperate on the matter. The Economics cost on maintain the Syrian operation is getting harder for Turkish economy. I'm afraid what he has shown so far to the EU is only part of what happen if he let some of refugees door open. Thus he let the EU to think what will happen if he open the door wide.

Erdogan loosing ground in domestic constituance on the matter of Economics progress (as that what he actually run from beginning). Now the Economics cost of continue operation in Syria and up keeping the refugee, already reduce his standing in the time of Economics slow down.
The EU can keep their border shut..but what if Erdogan let all the refugee loose to Greek Islands or climbing the border fences in Bulgaria on desperation, or using boats to Cyprus or even to Italian coasts..

Domestically, many in Turkey still see the EU treat them as gate guard for EU borders from middle east..some of Turkish already increasingly feel if those Refugees want to go to EU nation's, well let them go there.
Erdogan seems hope to gain double benefits on this.. playing to increasing feeling on domestic to let those Refugees goes to EU countries..and in the same time trying to gain more support from EU financially to keep him able to continue his operation in Syria.

Again all this is my speculation based on what Turkish media and Forums tones. Every leadership of a regime in the end will play on what domestic constituance feel on certain agenda. All their International 'play' will in the end based to domestic.

Ananda · Mar 1, 2020

Turkey launches self-defence military operation i…:

Turkey increase their Military operation against Syrian Government. Syria acknowledge that two of their Su-24 downed, as Turkey claim their F-16 begin involved in the operation.

Well, at least one side of Erdogan policy begin to shown implementation. Let see if the other side of the policy (opening doors for refugees to EU) will also implemented or EU will give in to Erdogan.

STURM · Mar 2, 2020

Turkey and Russia must focus on common ground to avoid war in Syria | The Strategist

The death of 33 Turkish soldiers in an airstrike in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province on 27 February brought the number of Turkish fatalities in Syria to around 50 for the month. It appears likely that ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

The question is how far are the Turks willing to go? Turkey is alone [as far as Syria goes], it's operating on sovereign Syrian soil and there's always the Russian factor. How will the Russians react if a Turk air strike results in Russian deaths?

Ananda · Mar 2, 2020

STURM said:
How will the Russians react if a Turk air strike results in Russian deaths?

That will be interesting question. Russian operation in Syria is highly depend on logistics life line from Black Sea. Don't think Russian Black Sea fleet having enough capabilities to force their way to Dardanelle if Turkey decided to close Russian access.
On the other hand, Russia still have good relationship with Armenia, thus they can threatening Turkey using Armenia soils (in theory at least).

Turkey already give warning to Russia to back off from Syrian possition, while Russia now put warning that they can't guarantee Turkish AF jets and UAV operating on Syrian Airspace.
This is like 'poker game'.. everyone putting their poker face and wait whose going to give or call the bluff.

Turkey want to have buffer zone in the north Syria. They are not going to trust Assad to keep the Kurdish in check. Assad seems also need the Kurds cooperation, to maintain those area.
Thus unless the Russian agree to let pro Turkey Arab militia control the buffer zone..they have to maintain the buffer zone and guarantee the Turks that no Assad or Kurds forces can go near Turkish border.
Erdogan will risk too much domestic back lash if he agree on scenario that potentially give the Kurds and Assad access to Syrian-Turkish border.

Well at least that what seems Turkey domestic mode tones.

STURM · Mar 2, 2020

Ananda said:
That will be interesting question. Russian operation in Syria is highly depend on logistics life line from Black Sea. Don't think Russian Black Sea fleet having enough capabilities to force their way to Dardanelle if Turkey decided to close Russian access.
On the other hand, Russia still have good relationship with Armenia, thus they can threatening Turkey using Armenia soils (in theory at least).

Turkey already give warning to Russia to back off from Syrian possition, while Russia now put warning that they can't guarantee Turkish AF jets and UAV operating on Syrian Airspace.
This is like 'poker game'.. everyone putting their poker face and wait whose going to give or call the bluff.

Turkey want to have buffer zone in the north Syria. They are not going to trust Assad to keep the Kurdish in check. Assad seems also need the Kurds cooperation, to maintain those area.
Thus unless the Russian agree to let pro Turkey Arab militia control the buffer zone..they have to maintain the buffer zone and guarantee the Turks that no Assad or Kurds forces can go near Turkish border.
Erdogan will risk too much domestic back lash if he agree on scenario that potentially give the Kurds and Assad access to Syrian-Turkish border.

Well at least that what seems Turkey domestic mode tones.

One thing’s for sure; whilst the politicians continue to play their games; it’s ordinary citizens who will pay the price. Same as in Yemen, Iraq. Libya and Afghanistan where outsiders have meddled for their own interests without any thought or concern for the locals.

Despite the hubris and rhetoric; there’s a limit to how far Erdogan is willing to go. The U.S. succeeding in getting rid of IS (the Iranians and Russians played a major role) but failed in getting rid of Assad. Let’s see whether Turkey is more successful in achieving its objectives .....

Ranger25 · Mar 2, 2020

Will be interesting to see if this begins to put limits on Turkish moves in Libya as well is they get further fixed in Syria

Pentaprism · Mar 3, 2020

The US has now agreed to provide Turkey with ammunition to continue the War.

Joint Turkish-Russian patrols to begin on March 15 – latest updates

On Saturday, Turkey's Defence Minister said the ceasefire was still holding, and no violations had taken place since the agreement came into effect on Thursday, March 5.

www.trtworld.com

I fail to understand why the West wants to prolong this War. Whatever the merits of the original opposition that took up Arms against Assad the opposition in Idlib today is a different beast and shares few of those values. The current opposition is primarily made up of Al Queda Militants or similar Muslim Fundamentalists and many of them are Foreign, basically hired Guns who will bring war to wherever they are required at bargain rates. They have no capacity to rule a Country in any meaningful way or a mandate from the Community to do so. I can't imagine them embracing democracy and knocking on doors, kissing Babies etc to secure Votes. What is the point in supporting such groups? If Turkey and others feel it is imperative to get rid of Assad why don't they carry out a Soleimani style hit and be done with it?

Syria seems extremely reluctant to target Turkish Troops even though they are receiving plenty of direct fire from Turkey. They must be keen not to escalate (or asked not to do so by Russia) or we would surely be seeing more attacks on Turkish Convoys, Observation Posts etc while Syria still has control of their skies (they have lost some Jets but not from Air to Air Dog Fights). They should also have some capacity to land some rockets or missiles on Turkish Soil if they wanted. Erdogan is politically vulnerable to losing Troops as evidenced by Facebook being closed down.

Boagrius · Mar 3, 2020

Some Turkish footage of recent strikes against SAA targets allegedly in Syria. There has been some suggestion that this footage may also include targets struck in Libya.

I have to say the image quality is particularly good. I wonder what sensor provided the footage (?).

ngatimozart · Mar 3, 2020

Pentaprism said:
The US has now agreed to provide Turkey with ammunition to continue the War.

Joint Turkish-Russian patrols to begin on March 15 – latest updates

On Saturday, Turkey's Defence Minister said the ceasefire was still holding, and no violations had taken place since the agreement came into effect on Thursday, March 5.

www.trtworld.com

I fail to understand why the West wants to prolong this War. Whatever the merits of the original opposition that took up Arms against Assad the opposition in Idlib today is a different beast and shares few of those values. The current opposition is primarily made up of Al Queda Militants or similar Muslim Fundamentalists and many of them are Foreign, basically hired Guns who will bring war to wherever they are required at bargain rates. They have no capacity to rule a Country in any meaningful way or a mandate from the Community to do so. I can't imagine them embracing democracy and knocking on doors, kissing Babies etc to secure Votes. What is the point in supporting such groups? If Turkey and others feel it is imperative to get rid of Assad why don't they carry out a Soleimani style hit and be done with it?

Syria seems extremely reluctant to target Turkish Troops even though they are receiving plenty of direct fire from Turkey. They must be keen not to escalate (or asked not to do so by Russia) or we would surely be seeing more attacks on Turkish Convoys, Observation Posts etc while Syria still has control of their skies (they have lost some Jets but not from Air to Air Dog Fights). They should also have some capacity to land some rockets or missiles on Turkish Soil if they wanted. Erdogan is politically vulnerable to losing Troops as evidenced by Facebook being closed down.

Is the US supplying Turkey with ammo or is that Turkish propoganda? Your claims about the fighters in Idlib are you able to prove those? I have problems with Turkish media as reliable sources because now they all are mouthpieces for Erdogan. Secondly, the fighters in Idlib may well be what you claim, but then again they may not be at all, so I think you / we need better sources for both claims.

Is the west prolonging the war? What makes you think that? Would you care to explain please with reliable sources. Be very careful about the political rules.

Pentaprism · Mar 3, 2020

Well I agree that Turkish sources (and Syrian for that matter) are probably not very reliable but there is little doubt that the USA has offered Turkey Ammo;

U.S. is willing to supply Turkey with military aid in its fight against Syria, White House says

Turkish forces "mainly use our equipment, we want to make sure the equipment is ready when they need to use it," according to Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency.

www.newsweek.com

U.S. promises Turkey ammo for its Idlib battle | Reuters Video

The United States says it's willing to give NATO -ally Turkey ammunition alongside humanitarian assistance in northwestern Syria, where Ankara is in a deepening standoff with Russia.

www.reuters.com

Supplying weapons to a side all but beaten is most certainly prolonging the War in my opinion and Turkey is clearly doing this and now the US is pledging to actively assist them with ammunition. How long do you think the Rebels could hold out without this support? I'd say probably a couple of months if not less.

Whether the USA offer of Ammo is much use to Turkey is another matter, they don't appear to be short of ammo. A coordinated and well thought out strategy would probably be more helpful to them.

Proving my claims about the make up of the Rebels is not so easy to support but everything I have read in Western and Syrian Media suggests Hayat Al Sham;

1) Emerged from Al Queda
2) Contain many non Syrian Fighters
3) Are the dominant rebel force remaining in Idlib

This website has a fair bit of detail about the formation of Opposition Groups in Syria

The Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Wider Tensions in the Syrian Insurgency – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

Abstract: Late January 2017 saw a significant realignment of rebel and jihadi factions in Syria. Following aggressive moves by al-Qa`ida-aligned Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, a number of rebel groups sought protection under Ahrar al-Sham. In response, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and its main allies announced...

ctc.usma.edu

What stands out to me is that there has been a lot of infighting and merging between the different groups. There has been violent clashes reported between various opposition groups (eg see Rebel infighting escalates in northwest Syria). So very difficult to imagine how they could form any sort of effective Political Organisation.

If this post is deemed too Political I'm happy for the Mods to delete it.

Feanor · Mar 4, 2020

ngatimozart said:
Is the US supplying Turkey with ammo or is that Turkish propoganda? Your claims about the fighters in Idlib are you able to prove those? I have problems with Turkish media as reliable sources because now they all are mouthpieces for Erdogan. Secondly, the fighters in Idlib may well be what you claim, but then again they may not be at all, so I think you / we need better sources for both claims.

Is the west prolonging the war? What makes you think that? Would you care to explain please with reliable sources. Be very careful about the political rules.

I see the same in Russian sources, with the US allegedly offering some munitions to the Turks. It certainly makes sense. The Russian sources are quoting James Jeffrey (James Franklin Jeffrey - Wikipedia). Though the other claim, about "the West" prolonging the conflict, is hard to justify. The situation in Idlib is mostly about Turkish influence in Syria, and Russia insisting on putting an end of the radical elements (real or alleged) among the rebels in Idlib. I'm not sure the West has much of anything to do with the situation. I think that the US offer of munitions are a tentative peace offering to the Turks after recent headbutting on the issue of the S-400 purchase, the F-35 exclusion, and sanctions associated with Turkish operations in northern Syria.

США пообещали помочь Турции в Идлибе боеприпасами

В Вашингтоне также изучают запрос Турции на передачу ей зенитных систем вооружения, чтобы сдерживать действия России и Дамаска в сирийской провинции Идлиб. В Вашингтоне также обвинили Россию и Китай в циничной политике, направленной на усугубление гуманитарного кризиса в Сирии.

classic.newsru.com

Feanor · Mar 4, 2020

Update.

Heavy fighting continues in Idlib, with the Syrians initially pushing in the south towards the M-4 highway, while the rebels, with Turkish support, counter-attacked in the east, against Saraqib and the M-5 highway. However while the SAA made major gains with relatively low casualties in the south, the rebels made very modest gains, while suffering major casualties. After the fall or Saraqib to the rebels, the patterns reversed themselves, with the rebels attempting to push hard in the south, while the SAA attacked towards Saraqib. All the while Turkish UAVs pounded SAA armor and artillery, causing significant damage, in some ways mirroring the work of the Russian airforce against rebel (and Turkish) armor. However despite the work done by Turkish airpower, the SAA retook Saraqib, and a few other villages, with M-5 complete under government control, though the rebels can still fire on one section of it. In the south the rebel counter-offensive stalled after minor gains. Russian MPs have entered Saraqib, likely in attempt to show the Turks that Saraqib will not be allowed to be held by the rebels (they're carrying brand new AK-12 assault rifles). T-72B3s have also shown up in the area. There are also reports of Turkish special forces involved in the fighting over Saraqib.

There is unconfirmed information that the SAA fired on a Turkish LP/OP. Considering they have been used as firebases for artillery, this isn't too surprising.

Российская военная полиция в Саракибе

Российская военная полиция вошла в Саракиб. Видимо Эрдогану стоит попрощаться с надеждами на перехват прямого контроля над трассой М-5. Как представляется, появление военной полиции в Саракибе это недвусмысленный сигнал о том, что Россия будет настаивать на том, что новая линия разграничения…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Боевое применение турецких БЛА по позициям сирийской армии в мухафазе Идлиб

https://vc.videos.livejournal.com/index/player?player=new&record_id=1380495

diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

The Current Conflict In Syria

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