Royal New Zealand Air Force

[KiwiRob]

I think it is prudent to maintain Whenuapai as an airfield as if AIA was taken out by a natural disaster it provides the city with a backup facility, think of it as an insurance policy, I don’t think we need anymore nasty housing developments to blot the landscape

100% agree with you, a city the size of Auckland with only 1 airport is not a good idea.

Hamilton is just 100kms away on the new Expressway. If there is a major disaster who says both AIA and WP wont be stuffed. Auckland needs housing mate. It is growing by 50000 people a year. Every year another Nelson or Whangarei. 2 million living their by the time the 2nd runway at AIA opens. The city is fast encroaching around WP anyway. Where in Auckland do you live anyway?

That's still 100kms away. As for housing intensify the central city where the major transport nodes are, building further out into the greenbelt is a bad idea.

I also think the govt should be encouraging new immigrants to move to the regions, Auckland's infrastructure struggles with the population we have now. Better still a cap on immigration numbers should also be put into place.

 

[KiwiRob]

Nine Ha of inner harbour waterfront front at DNB. The site zoning changed over to a mix of commercial and med-high density residential would be worth hundreds of millions. Yes there would have to be a degree of environmental cleansing which would cost eight figures so I am led to believe - but not insurmountable.

Whangarei does seem like a plausible option. The main PoA eventually will likely go to Orere Point as a "Green Port". If the pressure is placed upon the Navy to also move from the inner Waitemata - Whangarei would be the best bet. We have discussed this over on the NZDF and RNZN pages from time to time.

As a former Takapuna resident and now frequent visitor I can't think of anything worse than intensifying the population around Devonport, there is after all only one road in and out, that road is already at capacity for most of the day, unless there's a major uptake on the harbour ferries or installing light rail from the wharf to Esmond Rd/Takapuna Central it's not going to get any better.

I also don't see PoA moving, the costs to move will run to billions of dollars, it's not just moving the port it's also improving the infrastructure linking the new location to the rest of NZ, roads and rail would need to be massively upgraded, 4 lane highway and double tracking the rail lines, plus housing for the new workers and all the infrastructure that goes with moving a significant amount of people North. NZ has never done any infrastructure project on a scale like this, you know people complained about 26m for the flag referendum, the many billions required to move the port is going to sink any govt who tries it.

 

[MrConservative]

If a major shake-up of NZ military bases was on the cards, the logical time to announce it would have been as part of the 'Regeneration Plan' announced last year by the previous government.

Regenerating our estate | NZDF

I'm sceptical that the new government will a more daring, although the prospect of being able to squeeze a few thousand houses into West Auckland must be tempting. Incidentally, the website linked above doesn't mention runway extensions to any of the three RNZAF bases.

Strategic logic or common sense cunning - particularly when it came to housing and defence was not really a strong point in the last government. As you can appreciate a lot of policy work within the NZ government is quite often "silo" in an institutional sense and is not greatly imaginative in that process trumps solutions. I would guess that since the previous Labour Govt wanted to get their hands on WP and the then MP for Helensville fought that tooth and nail when it was in his electorate at the time - they were too chickenshit to raise it.

Once issue that may complicate moving Whenuapai operations to AIA is that Auckland is a sharemarket-listed company. They would only be interested if they were earning commercial returns on the land they own. This is different to Woodbourne, a much smaller military/civilian base where the airport is owned by the local council, and they are very happy to have the jobs/investment the Air Force provides.

About a quarter of it is owned by Auckland Council and a further 40% are owned by two nominee holdings groups made up of equity fund manager portfolios. I don't think it is insurmountable issue for the RNZAF to get access as a long term leaseholder to a site in the expanded airport at Mangere. AMP Capital for example owned Defence House home to MinDef, NZSIS, GCSB and HQ NZDF so there are precedents - and the trend within Govts is to avoid building 'buildings' where possible thus utilising capital in other areas. Public Infrastructure fund managers, who I have a professional engagement with on occasion, would be very keen to work with MinDef, AIA in delivering such a project.

 

[John Fedup]

100% agree with you, a city the size of Auckland with only 1 airport is not a good idea.

Toronto only has 1 real airport (Toronto Island is limited to turboprops only) and for the the 1.5 million plus people living in the east end, a horrible drive to Pearson airport.

Better still a cap on immigration numbers should also be put into place.

No kidding, if Canada had done that people wouldn't have to pay a million dollars for a run down shack in Vancouver (2 million for a semi decent house)!

 

[MrConservative]

As a former Takapuna resident and now frequent visitor I can't think of anything worse than intensifying the population around Devonport, there is after all only one road in and out, that road is already at capacity for most of the day, unless there's a major uptake on the harbour ferries or installing light rail from the wharf to Esmond Rd/Takapuna Central it's not going to get any better.

That is a fair point - but I would expect the cross harbour ferry service would improve. I live now in the country but do remember trying to get off Northcote Point onto Onewa - that was always a pain.

I also don't see PoA moving, the costs to move will run to billions of dollars, it's not just moving the port it's also improving the infrastructure linking the new location to the rest of NZ, roads and rail would need to be massively upgraded, 4 lane highway and double tracking the rail lines, plus housing for the new workers and all the infrastructure that goes with moving a significant amount of people North. NZ has never done any infrastructure project on a scale like this, you know people complained about 26m for the flag referendum, the many billions required to move the port is going to sink any govt who tries it.

Port of Auckland is eventually moving. It wont be there in 25 years.

Firstly, It is not 'NZ' doing this it will be the PoA a listed public company. There are 5 investigatory sites, Manakau harbour, Muriwai and PortNorth (These are the window dressing patsy locations to look as though there has been a selective process) and the cheapest and best options in the Waimangu Point and Orere Point areas on the Firth of Thames. About 3 Billion for the Port itself (Which will be highly automated) and 2 billion for the infrastructure to connect it up with the inland port at Wiri. In historical dollar value there have been larger projects in the 1980s and the AIA airport extension will be of a similar cost. But these projects are run by private companies and not the NZ Govt.

 

[MrConservative]

100% agree with you, a city the size of Auckland with only 1 airport is not a good idea.

That's still 100kms away. As for housing intensify the central city where the major transport nodes are, building further out into the greenbelt is a bad idea.

One airport for a city of the size of Auckland is not that unusual internationally. And to have a backup airport 100 ks away is not a major. Wellingtons backup - redirect airport is OH and AIA for international flights.

The stormwater and sewage infrastructure cannot cope with anymore intensive housing on the main isthmus. With metropolitan urban limit in place since 1994 intensification of the pre supercity Auckland boundaries became saturated.

I also think the govt should be encouraging new immigrants to move to the regions, Auckland's infrastructure struggles with the population we have now. Better still a cap on immigration numbers should also be put into place.

I don't disagree with you that immigration needs to be tightened up. Chain migration and making it easy for those on student Visa to get PR is has to be seriously looked at. The RMA and the LGA are pretty much why stuff all infrastructure was built in the last 20 years.

 

[KiwiRob]

That is a fair point - but I would expect the cross harbour ferry service would improve. I live now in the country but do remember trying to get off Northcote Point onto Onewa - that was always a pain.

The ferry service has been making a huge effort for years to get more people to use it, maybe one day they will succeed.

Port of Auckland is eventually moving. It wont be there in 25 years.

Firstly, It is not 'NZ' doing this it will be the PoA a listed public company. There are 5 investigatory sites, Manakau harbour, Muriwai and PortNorth (These are the window dressing patsy locations to look as though there has been a selective process) and the cheapest and best options in the Waimangu Point and Orere Point areas on the Firth of Thames. About 3 Billion for the Port itself (Which will be highly automated) and 2 billion for the infrastructure to connect it up with the inland port at Wiri. In historical dollar value there have been larger projects in the 1980s and the AIA airport extension will be of a similar cost. But these projects are run by private companies and not the NZ Govt.

Where exactly is Waimangu Point? I've tried to find it with Google Earth but the closest I get is a road on Waiheke Island. Orere Point is a nice little collection of bach's, one of my mates parents have a place there, it's a lovely spot close to Auckland. I think any serious talk moving of the PoA to the Firth of Thames is going to have the environmental movement up in arms, they'll probably drag along the rest of the country as well. That will be one messy fight.

 

[MrConservative]

Where exactly is Waimangu Point? I've tried to find it with Google Earth but the closest I get is a road on Waiheke Island. Orere Point is a nice little collection of bach's, one of my mates parents have a place there, it's a lovely spot close to Auckland. I think any serious talk moving of the PoA to the Firth of Thames is going to have the environmental movement up in arms, they'll probably drag along the rest of the country as well. That will be one messy fight.

I realise I am going off RNZAF topic here - but I am pretty familiar with this issue.

Find Matingarahi Point. Waimangu is the next point up. It is usual not named on maps. It is a few kilometres south of Orere. Of the 5 sites it will have the lowest environmental impact and the deepest draft. It is a rare point in that it is fairly low lying but has decent offshore depth. The problem with Auckland is that as container ships are getting bigger PoA cannot cope with them in draft. The Port has been becoming uneconomic and its real value these days is a real estate. The channel is too narrow, not enough berth space, slow turn around times and then PoA location is a huge factor in inner city congestion and too far away from the industrial and distribution bases around Wiri and East Tamaki.

It is well accepted that some people will be grumpy - usually white middle class urban liberals living in Ponsonby and Grey Lynn. There always is. But the real up in arms will be that the largest city in the country does not have a Port leaving to huge job losses and high pricers for goods.

It is interesting that once the Green Port concept is explained most pragmatic greens get it especially when the drawbacks of the other 'contenders' are worked through. The container ship berths - its containers are taken off and placed on electric rolling stock which constantly transport the containers to a mainhub 40kms away in Wiri through a designated rail/road corridor that is hidden in the landscape and uses tunnels. One of which is that it will go right through Bill Cashmore's (Auckland Deputy Mayor) Kawakawa farm which greatly amuses them. The trade off for urban Greenies is that get a waterfront latte lifestyle with culture and cuisine with the old port gone. There is quite a movement to shift the current port by inner city luvvies.

Happy to continue this over on the NZDF Geo-strategic thread.

 

[ngatimozart]

I see that a RAAF P-8A with the Australian Defence Minister on board, visited Wellington on Thursday 8th March. Apparently it did a local flight before returning to Australia.

 

[ADMk2]

I see that a RAAF P-8A with the Australian Defence Minister on board, visited Wellington on Thursday 8th March. Apparently it did a local flight before returning to Australia.

A bit of free advertising, eh?

Plus obviously, supporting the Australia / NZ Defmin talks...

 

[ngatimozart]

The potential acquisition of the P-8A has been postponed. Apparently an extension of the DSCA approval has been granted by US SEC DEF Mattis. Apparently the Minister wants time to reassess the VfM and capability of the P-8A. The local RAAF P-8 flight at the time of the recent AU-NZ DEFMIN in Wellington was a familiarisation flight for the NZ DEFMIN.

 

[t68]

The potential acquisition of the P-8A has been postponed. Apparently an extension of the DSCA approval has been granted by US SEC DEF Mattis. Apparently the Minister wants time to reassess the VfM and capability of the P-8A. The local RAAF P-8 flight at the time of the recent AU-NZ DEFMIN in Wellington was a familiarisation flight for the NZ DEFMIN.

Yep I agree with Mark Mitchell looks like smoke and mirrors warily similar when the Rhinos were bought for the RAAF new government wanted to look tough but went with them anyway, just wish he makes a determination on 2 additional aircraft for a total of 6 then I'll believe he didnt do it for perception.

 

[Gibbo]

The potential acquisition of the P-8A has been postponed. Apparently an extension of the DSCA approval has been granted by US SEC DEF Mattis. Apparently the Minister wants time to reassess the VfM and capability of the P-8A. The local RAAF P-8 flight at the time of the recent AU-NZ DEFMIN in Wellington was a familiarisation flight for the NZ DEFMIN.

I assumed the March deadline was all about Boeing wanting to take final orders so they can plan & schedule the P8A production line shutdown!?! What I don't see is how long that extension is for. As for Mark's comments about the previous Govt not making the move, I tend to agree, but if one has seen the Politik article Joyce stated they has seriously given thought to not getting the P8A if they couldn't spread payments...all about the surplus!

 

[Todjaeger]

I assumed the March deadline was all about Boeing wanting to take final orders so they can plan & schedule the P8A production line shutdown!?! What I don't see is how long that extension is for. As for Mark's comments about the previous Govt not making the move, I tend to agree, but if one has seen the Politik article Joyce stated they has seriously given thought to not getting the P8A if they couldn't spread payments...all about the surplus!

Perhaps, but also perhaps not.

As I understand it, Boeing is not running a dedicated production line for the P-8 Poseidon like is normally done for military aircraft like the C-17, F-22, etc. Instead Boeing is using the B737 line to first produce the Poseidon parts that are based off the B737-800ERX and B737-900 and mating/installing them, and then making the necessary airframe modifications and installing the military avionics, sensors, and weapon/mission systems.

If the above is correct, then it could be a comparatively easy and inexpensive task to 'restart' P-8 Poseidon production, at least when compared to restarting production where moldings need to be collected and re-used, etc.

On a side note, I do wonder if Boeing would operate their 737 AEW&C line in a similar fashion, and/or if running a line like this would make it easier to incorporate aircraft upgrades and improvements, like using the engines and winglets in the B737 MAX which are supposed to provide improved performance vs. those found in B737-900 wings, etc.

 

[MrConservative]

I assumed the March deadline was all about Boeing wanting to take final orders so they can plan & schedule the P8A production line shutdown!?! What I don't see is how long that extension is for. As for Mark's comments about the previous Govt not making the move, I tend to agree, but if one has seen the Politik article Joyce stated they has seriously given thought to not getting the P8A if they couldn't spread payments...all about the surplus!

Well, thankfully Joyce and his 'managerialism' has gone - he is better back running a radio network. The DSCA's FMF program is designed for exactly that kind of cost spreading circumstance and I doubt very much a P-8A solution for the NZDF would have fallen over for that. I suspect their are information gaps in what Joyce knows about the acquisition process. Richard Harmon's article last year was exactly right - the P-8A is the true test of this government and whether it can stand by its commitments to regional co-operative security or not. Are they smart enough to appreciate the fallout? The US and OZ of course will be miffed, but it will also raise eyebrows in Singapore and South Korea who NZ has been active in recent years with Defence diplomacy.

The previous government of course only had the first three months of that 12 month DSCA consideration period to make a decision due the the general election and restraints about major new spending in the period prior to the election. Then they lost power - which they did not expect until last July.

The rush to secure orders was down to advice coming through from the previous Obama administration in 2016 as no more P-8's were then likely to be ordered for the USN. It was not really just Boeing at issue but the other subcontractors are significant. However, with the revised and hugely increased Trump defense budget of $718B there is a legitimate expectation that more P-8A's will be ordered for the USN. This takes away the urgency that existed during 2016 when MinDef and the NZDF were working through the FASC process.

Mark Mitchell is absolutely correct and in the position to make a judgment call - the P-8A is clearly the best solution and intensive evaluative work over the preceding 5 years had been conducted. So Ron Mark is buying time - but the risk here is that time may not be Ron's best friend. He is gaining headlines for all the wrong reasons.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Well, thankfully Joyce and his 'managerialism' has gone - he is better back running a radio network. The DSCA's FMF program is designed for exactly that kind of cost spreading circumstance and I doubt very much a P-8A solution for the NZDF would have fallen over for that. I suspect their are information gaps in what Joyce knows about the acquisition process. Richard Harmon's article last year was exactly right - the P-8A is the true test of this government and whether it can stand by its commitments to regional co-operative security or not. Are they smart enough to appreciate the fallout? The US and OZ of course will be miffed, but it will also raise eyebrows in Singapore and South Korea who NZ has been active in recent years with Defence diplomacy.

The previous government of course only had the first three months of that 12 month DSCA consideration period to make a decision due the the general election and restraints about major new spending in the period prior to the election. Then they lost power - which they did not expect until last July.

The rush to secure orders was down to advice coming through from the previous Obama administration in 2016 as no more P-8's were then likely to be ordered for the USN. It was not really just Boeing at issue but the other subcontractors are significant. However, with the revised and hugely increased Trump defense budget of $718B there is a legitimate expectation that more P-8A's will be ordered for the USN. This takes away the urgency that existed during 2016 when MinDef and the NZDF were working through the FASC process.

Mark Mitchell is absolutely correct and in the position to make a judgment call - the P-8A is clearly the best solution and intensive evaluative work over the preceding 5 years had been conducted. So Ron Mark is buying time - but the risk here is that time may not be Ron's best friend. He is gaining headlines for all the wrong reasons.

• Yes, Ron Marks alleged use of Rnzaf NH90 and kingair aircraft for personel trsnsport, is this just media hyperbole or is there some truth to it? Obviously as defence minister he would be using airforce aircraft as part of his role,surely it wouldnt be squanderd in such a fashion, given the lack of availability pointed out on this forum?

 

[StereoGeek]

I wonder if part of this delay involves a renewed hunt for synergy between the FASC and FAMC requirements? I know the NZDF has been on the ground in Japan to study the actual pragmatic commonality the JMSDF and JASDF have found between C2 and P1 operations, which is apparently extensive, and that Leonardo are pitching the C-27J for both requirements (if a two-teir solution is the go), while Embraer’s missionized KC390’s are under investigation by current P3 operators in Latin America and Europe. From what Ron Mark said it looks like he wants more information on why other platforms were sidelined to prioritise the P8. Also, above someone said that South Korea and Singapore would pissed if we didn’t go for the P8? But both those nations are in the midst of detailed discussions with Saab about the offset and technology transfer arrangements for the Swordfish. Yeah I know... always bleating on about the bloody Swordfish... haha

 

[Novascotiaboy]

If labour has consistently screwed over the NZDF with piss poor purchasing decisions and the current Finance Minister more interested in anything but defence acquisitions what is the worst case scenario for the RNZAF in the minds of those here? I hope for the best but talk here and elsewhere seems to be leaning towards a downsizing of capabilities as the likely outcome if a decision is made at all.

 

[StereoGeek]

If labour has consistently screwed over the NZDF with piss poor purchasing decisions and the current Finance Minister more interested in anything but defence acquisitions what is the worst case scenario for the RNZAF in the minds of those here? I hope for the best but talk here and elsewhere seems to be leaning towards a downsizing of capabilities as the likely outcome if a decision is made at all.

Upholding our duties under international agreement to our huge area of responsibility (which encompasses 1/5th of the worlds ocean surface), and our contribution to maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region, are inescapable priorities for the government. If there is to be any renewed austerity in the military, FASC and FAMC will be the last to feel it. But we will be stuck with whatever platforms they pick for the next fifty years, so they have get it right, and future proofing against the coming shifts in the security situation in our hood will be a key decider. I’m pretty confident they will try damn hard to make sure they make the best long-term choice vs best short term one.

 

[John Fedup]

Upholding our duties under international agreement to our huge area of responsibility (which encompasses 1/5th of the worlds ocean surface), and our contribution to maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region, are inescapable priorities for the government. If there is to be any renewed austerity in the military, FASC and FAMC will be the last to feel it. But we will be stuck with whatever platforms they pick for the next fifty years, so they have get it right, and future proofing against the coming shifts in the security situation in our hood will be a key decider. I’m pretty confident they will try damn hard to make sure they make the best long-term choice vs best short term one.

Hopefully your optimism about pollies making the right choice is correct. Novascotiaboy and I know this is not the case for Canada, especially applicable to our current PM, "junior".