North Korean Military.

[John Fedup]

A Chinese attempt to restore a failed NK by force would likely result in massive economic sanctions at the very least, hardly worth it for them. A reunified Korea would economically paralyze SK for a generation at least reducing Korean influence in the region.

 

[gf0012-aust]

There won't be a unified Korea. The PRC will not allow it under any circumstances.

agree. chinese and russian nest teams would be over that border in a flash

they both don't want a unified korea - the flow on issues would huge

 

[alexsa]

If there is an internal uprising they may not have a choice, don't think they could handle another Tiananmen Square on a larger scale. This high ranking defector seems to think its possabile.


North Korean defector predicts future uprising against Kim Jong Un - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I suspect that would be a change at the top with the elite working to maintain their position rather than a revolution as such. It would be a good start as a new 'admisntration' may be more reasonable in their approach in order to try an improve the economic situation.

 

[Toblerone]

A Chinese attempt to restore a failed NK by force would likely result in massive economic sanctions at the very least, hardly worth it for them. A reunified Korea would economically paralyze SK for a generation at least reducing Korean influence in the region.

I believe you underestimate what the south koreans could accomplish after a unification. I don't think anyone can predict what would happen but at the very least I trust south korean ingenuity and industrialism. They could probably turn N.Korea into a powerhouse within two decades.

But I agree with the opinion that a unified Korea is China's worst nightmare. In their shoes I would decisively and massively invade N.Korea if the opportunity presented itself and no amount of casualties, threats or sanctions would dissuade me.

 

[swerve]

A politically neutral unified Korea, or at least one with no foreign troops permitted on its soil, would have some advantages for China. The difficult part is getting to that state.

 

[Waylander]

Turn North Korea into an industrial powerhouse within two decades?

The South Koreans watched very closely when East and West Germany reunited in 1990. It was a colossal burden (and well worth it I might add) and the East hasn't reached the same level as the West for some 27 years now and counting.

And in 1990 the West was much larger than the East and the East wasn't as dirt poor and culturally diverged from the West as it is the case with North and South Korea.

Is a reunification worth the costs? Most probably. Will it be ugly and extremely difficult? Most defenitely.

 

[Feanor]

Turn North Korea into an industrial powerhouse within two decades?

The South Koreans watched very closely when East and West Germany reunited in 1990. It was a colossal burden (and well worth it I might add) and the East hasn't reached the same level as the West for some 27 years now and counting.

And in 1990 the West was much larger than the East and the East wasn't as dirt poor and culturally diverged from the West as it is the case with North and South Korea.

Is a reunification worth the costs? Most probably. Will it be ugly and extremely difficult? Most defenitely.

Part of the problem may be that the more time goes by, the bigger the difference between the two becomes and the harder reunification gets. The cost isn't just huge, it's rising.

 

[Waylander]

Jup, that's defenitely a problem.

Every passing year and the North falls more behind.

 

[Toblerone]

Turn North Korea into an industrial powerhouse within two decades?

The South Koreans watched very closely when East and West Germany reunited in 1990. It was a colossal burden (and well worth it I might add) and the East hasn't reached the same level as the West for some 27 years now and counting.

And in 1990 the West was much larger than the East and the East wasn't as dirt poor and culturally diverged from the West as it is the case with North and South Korea.

Is a reunification worth the costs? Most probably. Will it be ugly and extremely difficult? Most defenitely.

Well I didn't say they would be at the same level. I just imagine the creation of huge industrial zones, breakthroughs in agriculture and eventually booming trade.

Germany suffered from the years of "total war", soviet atrocities and the persecution of hundreds of thousands by denazification courts. I don't think this will happen in a korean conflict.

New South Korean President may warm to North Korea
According to this article there is a good chance that a lineral president is likely to be voted in. And his policy is for rapprochement and against sanctions. In my opinion any easing of the sanctions after the barrage of nuclear tests is an admission of defeat and will strengthen and embolden Kim.

The only valid strategy at this point is unrelenting economic strangling from all sides hoping for a collapse, everything else is misguided and borderline treason. All the humanitarian aid provided to N.Korea brought the region to this point.

US Humanitarian Aid Goes to North Korea Despite Nuclear Tensions
Thanks, Obama

 

[gf0012-aust]

are we in la la land?

china and russia don't want a unified korea, the north acts as a latent buffer - the last thing they want is a pro western korea butted up against their borders.

north korea despite all the angst it causes is still a better option for them than having a pro western country

he might be crazy, but to paraphrase, he's still their crazy

 

[Waylander]

In 1990 Germany didn't suffer from anything you said. By that time West Germany was already the dominating economic nation in europe.

 

[John Fedup]

north korea despite all the angst it causes is still a better option for them than having a pro western country

he might be crazy, but to paraphrase, he's still their crazy

I would agree that a pro western united Korea is not their favourite option but Kim is such a dip$hit he could very possibly trigger a major war that could end up going nuclear. Clearly that should be an even less attractive option. Even a major non- nuke war where they side militarily with NK would have huge economic consequences ( sanctions) once the conflict ends, again a very poor outcome.

Contrast the above with the huge requirements for unifying Korea, a process that would be several orders of magnitude over what West Germany faced in the 1990s. A better way to neuter a final IMHO. Might even be a business opportunity for China.

 

[Toblerone]

What are sanctions supposed to do? Did sanctions stop Putin from pursuing his national interests in Ukraine and afterwards in Syria? I don't think China is afraid of US/UN sanctions after what they are doing in the SCS. They are even getting away with the buildup so their strategy of ignoring everyone and just trucking along is working.

I am sure they would go to war over N.Korea, it would be so beneficial to install a puppet regime there somehow. Too bad all the chinese-leaning generals seem to have been purged. Something tells me they missed a huge opportunity at some point. Now they let N.Korea go out of control and got THAAD in their backyard, tsk tsk, mistakes have been made.

 

[John Fedup]

What are sanctions supposed to do? Did sanctions stop Putin from pursuing his national interests in Ukraine and afterwards in Syria?

I think there is a difference between Ukraine and NK as far as value versus risk is concerned. Influence in the former is much more important and in Putin's mind it was worth the risk. Syria, not so much so but the risk was minimal.

I don't think China is afraid of US/UN sanctions after what they are doing in the SCS. They are even getting away with the buildup so their strategy of ignoring everyone and just trucking along is working.

They have guessed correctly that most players won't protest very much. This could and probably will change if they really start to push on with their false claims of sovereignty over the SCS. Economic sanctions against China would have much greater consequences for China compared to Russia.

I am sure they would go to war over N.Korea, it would be so beneficial to install a puppet regime there somehow.

Going to war over NK is not in their interests, a coup to replace Kim with a puppet is. Probably not a bad outcome for the West either compared to the status quo.

Too bad all the chinese-leaning generals seem to have been purged. Something tells me they missed a huge opportunity at some point.

Perhaps but they likely have the ability to still manage a coup.

 

[supercomrade]

Not to go too conspiracy, but why don't Russia and China get together and just kill Kim Jong-un and his family? Then install their own leader.

They need that buffer zone for sure but right now the problem is Kim Jong-un is creating too much noise and commotion on the world stage. If he keeps going, eventually USA will get involved and there's no way that ends up good for China or Russia.

On top of that, I am sure that even if Russia and China use some foul play(go against the rules of war), USA and the international community would look the other way and let it slide in return for a stable non-nuclear launch every month leader.

 

[Waylander]

It's probably not as if some Chinese or Russian secret squirrels could just walk over the border and stage a coup at will.

The Kim family has purged their inner circle quite regularly and thouroughly.

And everybody is talking about the NK missile threat for SK, Japan and the US while a working arsenal of NBC tipped MRBMs is as much an insurance against a Chinese or Russian intervention as it is a tool against the capialist devils and their lapdogs.

I don't think that China has any real option besides the use of massive force in order to change the regime in Pyiongyang and that could backfire real hard. It's only 800km to Beijing...

 

[Feanor]

are we in la la land?

china and russia don't want a unified korea, the north acts as a latent buffer - the last thing they want is a pro western korea butted up against their borders.

north korea despite all the angst it causes is still a better option for them than having a pro western country

he might be crazy, but to paraphrase, he's still their crazy

How is he "their" crazy? He's unpredictable and destroyed an economic project to export Russian coal by picking a untimely fight with the south. He's his own crazy whose only saving grace is that he's rabidly anti-American.

 

[supercomrade]

Ok you guys all seem like you're very intelligent in this subject.

So what would happen if Russia and China just sent a cruise missile to kill Kim, his whole family and followed by cruise missiles to every known nuclear launch site to disable them?

Clearly from what I am reading in this thread, a coupe is impossible since Kim regularly kills everyone around him. I wouldn't be surprised if he has successfully taken out some Chinese placed agents to stage a coup.

The reason I keep suggesting these ideas is with Kim making more and more noise, I feel like US will have no choice than to get involved. That can't end well for US or China. Sure a re-unification of Korea might be too expensive for the South at this point, but imagine a NK under occupation by US and SK troops

 

[ngatimozart]

Ok you guys all seem like you're very intelligent in this subject.

So what would happen if Russia and China just sent a cruise missile to kill Kim, his whole family and followed by cruise missiles to every known nuclear launch site to disable them?

Clearly from what I am reading in this thread, a coupe is impossible since Kim regularly kills everyone around him. I wouldn't be surprised if he has successfully taken out some Chinese placed agents to stage a coup.

The reason I keep suggesting these ideas is with Kim making more and more noise, I feel like US will have no choice than to get involved. That can't end well for US or China. Sure a re-unification of Korea might be too expensive for the South at this point, but imagine a NK under occupation by US and SK troops

Suggestions of assassination of Heads of State and / or decapitation of the leadership of a nation do not bode well for ones future on this forum. I suggest strongly that you and other posters avoid this.

 

[Waylander]

Apart from the little problem that when you don't hit all your targets a nuclear tipped MRBM may flatten the forbidden city and another one Vladivostok...

And what for? It's not like China or Russia could make sure that not another lunatic takes the helm in NK.