War Against ISIS

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Russia has carried out another cruise missile strike in Syria, this time from the Mediterranean. It's most likely the 636.6 sub Rostov-na-Donu, possibly firing off only 4 missiles, but details are missing. Other candidates are the two Buyan-M ships that are completing trials in the Black Sea. If all 3 fired, it gives us a maximum volley of 14. Confirmation is lacking, but there are alleged claims of hits in Aleppo. French sources (Le Monde) claims the strikes hit Raqqa.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2970828.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivi...ple_reports_that_russia_launched_more_cruise/
#Syria Regime ballistic missile(possible Russian cruise missile) falling on Qubtan al-Jabal in Aleppo - Map of Syrian Civil war/ Global conflict in Syria - liveuamap.com
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Le Monde: Ðîññèÿ çàïóñòèëà êðûëàòûå ðàêåòû èç Ñðåäèçåìíîãî ìîðÿ ïî ñèðèéñêîìó ãîðîäó Ðàêêå
Пополнение Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð§Ð¤ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russia officially concludes the A321 crash was a terrorist attack with a bomb on board.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÔÑÁ: íà áîðòó óïàâøåãî â Åãèïòå ñàìîëåòà áûëà âçîðâàíà áîìáà

French air strikes on Raqqa are continuing, the 3rd strike in 2 days.

Ð¤Ð°Ð½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼Ð°Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð±ÑƒÑˆÐµÐ²Ð°Ð»ÑÑ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Meanwhile Putin claims Russia has made contact with secular opposition in Syria, and is not striking the areas they are confirmed to be. He also said Russia is willing to support opposition efforts against ISIS.

Путин про цели ВКС в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí çàÿâèë î ãîòîâíîñòè ïîääåðæàòü ñèðèéñêóþ îïïîçèöèþ

Meanwhile Russia is requesting information on airport security of different countries, to evaluate recommendations to Russian air lines.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîñàâèàöèÿ çàïðîñèëà äàííûå î áåçîïàñíîñòè àýðîïîðòîâ Åâðîïû

EDIT: Looks like it was the Rostov-na-Donu. Two of the missiles crashed in Aleppo and Idlib, the other two presumably hit their targets. There's still some fuzziness whether 4 or 6 missiles were fired from the sub, though to the best of my knowledge they only carry 4. Which would give this launch a stunning 50% failure rate. Then again, if they were fired in pairs of 2 per target, 2 missiles falling could still mean both targets struck successfully.

Then again I might be wrong, and it might be 6. Either way, two falling is unimpressive.

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/573126.html
 

swerve

Super Moderator
....and so your solution is to spend billions upon billions on 24/7 security watching these morons? Bankrupcty or death as a solution, no thanks,
Nope. Think!

Read GermanHerman's post. You advocate doing exactly what Daesh wants. You've fallen for their plan.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Second update.

It looks like Russia is going into Syria for real. A fleet of 27 Russian ships is headed for Syria, Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M3s carried out strikes. 34 air-launched cruise missiles were used, not sure if in addition to naval cruise missiles, or if no VMF launches took place. Putin has instructed Russian Naval Command in the Mediterranean to work together with the French carrier group as allies, and that joint operations will be planned on the sea and in the sky.

The missiles that fell appear to be Kh-555 missiles, not the Kalibr, making 2 failures out of 34 launches. There are reports that one or two columns of ISIS oil tanker trucks were destroyed. Incidentally this is the first confirmation that Kh-555 missiles have been serially produced, and delivered to the VVS.

10 Satellites have been retasked full time in support of the operation in Syria.

There are increased rumors of a ground operation in excess of what has been going on so far.

Ответный удар - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
http://theaviationist.com/2015/11/17/russian-tu-22s-joined-the-syria-air-war/
12 long-range bombers and Tu-22 m 3 bombers attack targets in #Syria - Map of Syrian Civil war/ Global conflict in Syria - liveuamap.com
Russian Warplanes Destroy 140 Terrorist Targets in Syria
 

PO2GRV

Member
The navalist russophile in me is hoping we'll see MiG 29Ks sortie from CdG!

Doubtful but it remains to be seen what exactly cooperation between the VMF and MN will really mean.

In other news I'm eager to see what headway Russia will make in getting an internationally accepted definition of support for some of the groups and if that will affect whatever the hell Saudi Arabia has been doing funneling money into the region

Speaking of SA, heard on the news last week SA (or was it OPEC) expects oil production and prices to remain at or below $50/barrel until 2020! Bad news for Russia. Sanctions relief will take on a new urgency methinks
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The navalist russophile in me is hoping we'll see MiG 29Ks sortie from CdG!
This conflict has highlighted a lot of capabilities that Russia didn't have 5 years ago. Many of them are still in their infancy. For example the cruise missile strikes. 26 from the Caspian is below their max volley capacity for sure. 34 from the sky is questionable. Is that all the targets they could reliably identify? Did they not want to spend so much money? Or do they simply not have more missiles that they're willing to expend at this time? They used iirc 5 Tu-160s and 6 Tu-95s. The total fleet size is much larger, and despite poor readiness rates, there's no reason they couldn't have gotten more then that in the sky. Especially since it's likely they knew well in advance that the jet downing was a terrorist attack, and simply timed the public acknowledgement with the strike.

Doubtful but it remains to be seen what exactly cooperation between the VMF and MN will really mean.
Exchanging intelligence? Coordinating targets to avoid striking the same target twice? SAR if downed pilots are in enemy territory? Use of each others assets for BDA? All of those look like easy and natural options.

In other news I'm eager to see what headway Russia will make in getting an internationally accepted definition of support for some of the groups and if that will affect whatever the hell Saudi Arabia has been doing funneling money into the region

Speaking of SA, heard on the news last week SA (or was it OPEC) expects oil production and prices to remain at or below $50/barrel until 2020! Bad news for Russia. Sanctions relief will take on a new urgency methinks
Well Russia started hitting the oil convoys, the French are bombing the oil fields. It's hard to say what direction these things will go. If there is internal instability inside Saudi Arabia that could also send the price spiking.
 
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Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Russian-French-US opportunity

I see this as a unique opportunity for these three nations plus others to work together.

Let the Russians land troops(27 vessels) in Syria and take in ISI inside those boundaries.

A Joint US-FR task force I can drive them out of Iraq and the two land forces can meet at the Syrian border. As I've said here before, two Brigade Combat teams is all it will take, one Heavy Mech, one Light. US 4th ID(MECH) and 10ID(MTN) supported by a Ranger BN and a Seal team. 30 day OP

I see no one on the UN Security Council that would oppose this.
 

stojo

Member
I see this as a unique opportunity for these three nations plus others to work together.

Let the Russians land troops(27 vessels) in Syria and take in ISI inside those boundaries.

A Joint US-FR task force I can drive them out of Iraq and the two land forces can meet at the Syrian border. As I've said here before, two Brigade Combat teams is all it will take, one Heavy Mech, one Light. US 4th ID(MECH) and 10ID(MTN) supported by a Ranger BN and a Seal team. 30 day OP

I see no one on the UN Security Council that would oppose this.
That might be true, but the question is ... what then?

We know all too well how a prolonged presence of Western occupying force can lead to nothing.

I think the other route has to be taken. Support SAA, their allies and other regonal players from the air, support them logistically and intel-wise, and let them do the job of crushing ISIS. It will take more time, probably more casualties, but its doable.

One should just consider how SAA recovered from the string of losses, and started gaining ground in Aleppo province, and all that because of 40 or so Russians air-crafts, bombarding the opponents, plus some "advising" and of course rearmament in matter of weeks.

Press hard on some Gulf states against supplying extremists with weapons and money, and for Christ sake, prevent the shipment of ISIS oil via harbors of NATO countries such as Turkey.

And in the same, make provisions for a political deal, or at least cease fire between the cooperative anti-ISIS factions.

This is the core of the Russias proposal, and it seams its the most reasonable proposal yet.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I see this as a unique opportunity for these three nations plus others to work together.

Let the Russians land troops(27 vessels) in Syria and take in ISI inside those boundaries.

A Joint US-FR task force I can drive them out of Iraq and the two land forces can meet at the Syrian border. As I've said here before, two Brigade Combat teams is all it will take, one Heavy Mech, one Light. US 4th ID(MECH) and 10ID(MTN) supported by a Ranger BN and a Seal team. 30 day OP

I see no one on the UN Security Council that would oppose this.
Russia has already landed troops in Syria. The signs were there earlier and I posted it, but a recent MoD release tacitly acknowledged the presence of the artillery group. According to the map, they're in Homs province. From OSINT we know that they're not alone. Ruslan Leviev more accurately places the Msta-B battery working in support of SAA units fighting ISIS near Palmyra.

He also has an interesting bit there on the use of Russian cluster munitions in Syria.

ÐŸÐ¾Ð´Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ 120-й гв.арбр в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
First evidence of new weapons being used in Syria: ruslanleviev
 

gazzzwp

Member
Announced yesterday that the CSG Truman will be also deploying to the Mediterranean.

Quite a crowd gathering.
I just don't see that all this naval power is simply to deal with ISIL. It has to be deeper than this and more to do with the US and Russia jockeying for positions in the region.

Why for example is the US base in Turkey not sufficient? This just does not make sense.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
I just don't see that all this naval power is simply to deal with ISIL. It has to be deeper than this and more to do with the US and Russia jockeying for positions in the region.

Why for example is the US base in Turkey not sufficient? This just does not make sense.
Maybe France intends to invoke the provisions of NATO?

Art
 
I just don't see that all this naval power is simply to deal with ISIL. It has to be deeper than this and more to do with the US and Russia jockeying for positions in the region.

Why for example is the US base in Turkey not sufficient? This just does not make sense.
In reality, IMV it does make sense
1. There hasn't been a CSG on station for nearly two months. Truman was going next regardless..
2. CdG was going to deploy before the the tragic 13/11 massacre.
3. Increased RF naval presence in the eastern Med was going to increase, based on the outcome of horrific MetroJet event.

I do agree - through another set of 'optics' on the unfolding events, there is a certain level of power 'positioning'.

I think a certain player has played this perfectly, hindsight or not... Another is playing catchup.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
An interesting slide that shows "increase of Russian airgroup in Syria".

It lists 14 Tu-22M3s, 5 Tu-160s, 6 Tu-95s, 8 Su-34s, and 4 Su-27SMs. The last two numbers are likely going to be redeployed to strengthen presence in Syria. The Su-27SM look a little strange, until we remember that Su-27SM units trained in ground-attack missions. They will likely fill the same role as the Su-30SM, and give a chance to combat test the type.

The slide also shows that currently Russia has 4 Mi-8 types and 12 Mi-24 types in Syria.

Удар роÑÑийÑкой дальней авиации по боевикам в СирÐи - Юрий ЛÑмин
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It's not clear whether the long-range strikes from Russia will continue. It's fairly unlikely that mass cruise missile launches will be a regular feature, since they're expensive, but conceivably the Tu-22M3s and Su-34s with Il-78Ms could keep working targets in Syria for a while. The MoD released discusses it as a strengthening of an ongoing operation, rather then a one-time mass strike.

МаÑÑированные удары роÑÑийÑкой Дальней авиации по территории Сирии - bmpd

More and more info is coming in that both naval and air-launcher cruise missiles were involved, Kalibr-PL fired from the Rostov-na-Donu. It also appears that in addition to the Kh-555 conventional missiles, the Kh-101/102 was used.

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð½ÐµÑла удар по ИГИЛ крылатыми ракетами Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ лодки. - Блокнот военного милитариÑта
ÐŸÑ€Ð¾Ð¿Ñ‹Ð»Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¸Ð¼Ð¾: "Калибром" Ñ ÐŸÐ› - Берлога Бронемедведа
"Стратеги" за работой - Берлога Бронемедведа
Чем-то их по башке шарахнуло? - Человек менÑет кожу

I may have been wrong about the rebasing, the 8 Su-34s and 4 Su-27SMs listed in the MoD presentation operated from Russian territory. In other words they flew to Syria and back, the Su-27SMs flying escort, and the Su-34s being used to strike the oil tanker columns. This would be practical use of the Su-34 as "long-bombers", i.e. potential Tu-22M3 replacements.

ДБРВВС РФ в Сирии - Берлога Бронемедведа

Some footage of Syrian rebels firing a TOW missile at a Humvee operated by Shiite militias from Iraq, in Syria. The bottom photos are from Aleppo, where two other Humvees were destroyed.

TOW против Humvee - Юрий ЛÑмин

The Moskva cruiser has been tasked with coordinating with the French. It houses the current Mediterranean squadron command. And it looks like the Charles de Gaulle is heading to the eastern Mediterranean, instead of the Persian Gulf, to save time.

РуÑÑкий Ñ Ñ„Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñ†ÑƒÐ·Ð¾Ð¼ - Ð±Ñ€Ð°Ñ‚ÑŒÑ Ð½Ð°Ð²ÐµÐº. ОпÑÑ‚ÑŒ. - Берлога Бронемедведа
Чего Ñ‚Ñнуть-то? - Берлога Бронемедведа

An interesting approximation of Russian presence in Syria, from Sutyagin. It should be noted that this is an extreme high-end approximation. For example, it's very likely he is wrong about the number of Su-24Ms, since he claims 24. He himself admits that 12 have been identified, and his basis for claiming larger numbers seems to be the fact that they come from two different units. However there is evidence that some of these assets are indeed present. I would treat this as a list of potential Russian deployments.

https://rusi.org/publication/rusi-defence-systems/detailing-russian-forces-syria
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
President Hollande speaking live to Assembly of French Mayors. Established broad coalition for the war against Daesh. He's meeting Obama next Monday in Washington and Putin Thursday of next week in Moscow. He's extending the national state of emergency for a further three months and a bill will be before Parliament tonight. He's created an extra 8000 jobs in the security forces and there will be no decrease in numbers in the French armed forces. The French are taking full control of their borders. The full resources and power of the government will be put to the safety of France. He is prioritising the eradicating radicalisalisation. France will play a major roll, militarily, diplomatically and politically in the settling the Syrian conflict and problems. He reiterated that France is in a state of war.

I apologise for the lack of adequate context because I have typed as it was translated as he spoke. Al Jazeera broadcast his speech live. He spoke just as the security forces raid in Saint Denis suburb of Paris ended with two terrorists dead, one male and one female when she detonated an explosive vest / belt after a lengthy gun fight.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Maybe France intends to invoke the provisions of NATO?

Art
France has already invoked the EU defence treaty. The relevant clause, inherited from the pre-NATO WEU treaty, is stronger than the relevant NATO clause.

[edit] It received unanimous support from EU members.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

barney41

Member
President Hollande speaking live to Assembly of French Mayors. Established broad coalition for the war against Daesh. He's meeting Obama next Monday in Washington and Putin Thursday of next week in Moscow. He's extending the national state of emergency for a further three months and a bill will be before Parliament tonight. He's created an extra 8000 jobs in the security forces and there will be no decrease in numbers in the French armed forces. The French are taking full control of their borders. The full resources and power of the government will be put to the safety of France. He is prioritising the eradicating radicalisalisation. France will play a major roll, militarily, diplomatically and politically in the settling the Syrian conflict and problems. He reiterated that France is in a state of war.

I apologise for the lack of adequate context because I have typed as it was translated as he spoke. Al Jazeera broadcast his speech live. He spoke just as the security forces raid in Saint Denis suburb of Paris ended with two terrorists dead, one male and one female when she detonated an explosive vest / belt after a lengthy gun fight.
Excellent recap of events. The Saint Denis raid appears to have preempted a second round of terror attacks and also yielded 3 captives and a potential trove of intelligence. Kudos to the French security forces.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Excellent recap of events. The Saint Denis raid appears to have preempted a second round of terror attacks and also yielded 3 captives and a potential trove of intelligence. Kudos to the French security forces.
Apparently the raid was the result of a phone tip. A good piece of luck.
 
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