Ukranian Crisis

[KiwiRob]

Well the Crimea seems fortified as hell. Are they doing this to exert pressure on the new authorities in Kiev? The smoothness with which Russian troops were received on the peninsula says a lot. What are everyone's views on a possible military clash between Russian and Ukrainian regular units? IMHO unlikely as the Ukrainian military and force structures are in chaos and are losing control over Kiev and central Ukraine, never mind dealing with the south. The east shouldn't be overly hostile to Russia either.

It's really sad how easily Ukrainian air space was violated by the Candids and Hinds. Is the Ukrainian air force completely asleep?

I've been in the Crimea a couple of times, to me it's always seamed like it was a part of Russia trapped by circumstance in Ukraine. A number of the people I've meet have said Crimea should never have been allowed to become part of the post 1990 Ukraine.

I don't have a problem if Russia annex's Crimea, apart from 300,000 Tatar the rest are majority Russian who would like nothing more than being Russians again. So whilst the rest of the country is falling apart the Crimea isn't.

 

[Feanor]

A few updates, apparently there were shots fired near the Crimean MVD building at night. Moscow says that unknown men, from the Kiev government had tried to seize the building, but failed. Russian ministry of foreign affairs says the self-defense forces foiled the attack, but this seems extremely unlikely given that so far the Crimean militias have been unarmed. It's more likely that Russian troops or the newly formed Crimean Berkut fought off the attack.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÈÄ Ðîññèè îáúÿâèë, ÷òî îáñòàíîâêó â Êðûìó íàãíåòàåò Êèåâ

Crimean government also says that attempts were made to capture the parliament building, but that seems a little strange (given the gratuitous presence of armed "polite men" there).

ВлаÑти Крыма заÑвили о попытке захвата Совмина и Верховного Совета | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

In Simferopol the presence of Russian troops has gone beyond the airport. They've occupied varying positions in the town. Photos here. They patrol all the streets near the Crimean parliament and council of ministers. Crimean police have left the city, with the exception of the road-police (similar to US highway patrol). And apparently they're no longer alone there, Ukrainian road police have now formed an outer cordon around their positions, instructing traffic to stay out, but letting pedestrians through, if they live or work in the area.

По Симферополю разъезжают военные машины | КрымÑкое информационное агентÑтво
Центр Ð¡Ð¸Ð¼Ñ„ÐµÑ€Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½Ð¾Ñтью окружен военными | КрымÑкое информационное агентÑтво
Оцепление вокруг Ð·Ð´Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÑтва Крыма раÑширено на квартал | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

And Gasprom has stated that Ukraine might lose their gas discount price for non-payment. So far Ukraine is badly behind schedule on payments. However this did not seem to bother GazProm prior to the current crisis. Of course the halting of the Russian credit line might have something to do with this. Outstanding gas debts are 1.5 bln USD.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà ìîæåò ïîòåðÿòü ñêèäêó íà ãàç, îáúÿâèë "Ãàçïðîì"

Meanwhile the Crimean government has issued an order by which it takes executive control of all federal agencies on its territory, including the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior (police and national guard), SBU (Ukrainian KGB), MChS (emergency services), Border Guards, Tax Services, and Navy.

The decision came from the Chairman of the Council of Ministers (Chief Executive of Crimea). He says this measure is temporary, and requests that Putin help stabilize the situation.

ÐкÑенов обратилÑÑ Ðº Путину Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñьбой оказать ÑодейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð² обеÑпечении мира на территории ÐÐ* Крым

Also the same man states that he has cooperation with the Russian Black Sea Fleet to provide public order and safety in key areas. This might be a way to legitimize the Russian military presence, and isn't far from the truth given the course things have taken so far. Key words "so far".

ВлаÑти Крыма наладили ÑотрудничеÑтво Ñ Ð§Ð¤ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¾Ñ…Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñ‹ важных объектов | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

Overall it's starting to look more and more like the armed men in the Council of Ministers and parliament building, are SpN GRU, or something of the sort.

Also I have to wonder if the Crimean government is trolling (hard). They stated that the reason they need full control of the federal agencies on their territory is because "unknown men" (polite people), with weapons, and vehicles, are seizing government buildings.

In other words, they invite Russian intervention, then claim Russian intervention is the reason they have to seize control of federal agencies. Then say that the Russian intervention is there to keep public peace.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian frigate has raised the Russian Navy flag. The Ukrainian government has sent a message to Turkey, requesting that the ship be detained, and prevented from passing into the Black Sea.

http://www.iarex.ru/news/45687.html

And a referendum is planned for March 30th. The question of the referendum is whether the Crimean Autonomy is part of Ukraine, based on current treaties and agreements (yes or no). Of course if the answer is no, it will still be up in the air whether they want to be annexed or not. And if they do, whether Russia will be willing to annex them (see South Ossetia). However the Crimean government claims that the referendum is not an attempt to declare independence, merely an attempt to clarify the status of Crimea and maintain the rights of the autonomy regardless of the authorities in Kiev.

http://newsru.com/world/01mar2014/referendum.html

 

[the concerned]

I think this is disgusting yet again Russia shoves its weight around and all the west does is offer words. it seems to me that Putin is interested in fame rather than common sense. I don't care what the majority of Crimea's population is the fact is that it is Ukrainian land not Russia's. The Ukrainian government have not commited any act's of atrocity against these people so there is no peacekeeping to be done. its like alex salmond asking for the US to invade England just because he doesn't agree with the policies of London that's not the way things are done. I hope at the very least this costs Russia its naval base on Ukrainian soil as they have proven they can't be trusted.

 

[Feanor]

I think this is disgusting yet again Russia shoves its weight around and all the west does is offer words. it seems to me that Putin is interested in fame rather than common sense. I don't care what the majority of Crimea's population is the fact is that it is Ukrainian land not Russia's. The Ukrainian government have not commited any act's of atrocity against these people so there is no peacekeeping to be done. its like alex salmond asking for the US to invade England just because he doesn't agree with the policies of London that's not the way things are done. I hope at the very least this costs Russia its naval base on Ukrainian soil as they have proven they can't be trusted.

It gets a little more complicated then that. You might not care what the majority of the population wants, but the central authorities in Kiev have lost control. And the population will do what it wants, probably with Russian support, possibly with tacit acceptance from the West. Russian intervention currently seems to have prevented any sort of violent confrontations. Remember right before Russian troops moved, there was a massive fight between the Tatars and Russians, that resulted in at least one fatality (an older woman had a heart attack). Also the blockade at Perekop (entrance to Crimea) is not manned by Russian military. It's manned by self-organized Crimean militias, and an MVD unit formed by the Crimean government (Crimean Berkut). Russian support is significant but not essential to the functioning of these entities.

Similar incidents are occurring elsewhere in Ukraine, Kharkov for example, and it remains to be seen whether they escalate. The current situation in Crimea is certainly less immediately problematic then the situation in Kiev, or elsewhere in central Ukraine.

My question to you is how do you think this should be resolved? I don't think the US or the EU is willing to step in, nor do they have any more legal authority to do so then Russia does (less actually, given that Ukraine is a CIS member, and something could be done using that framework, though it hasn't been so far).

 

[the concerned]

It gets a little more complicated then that. You might not care what the majority of the population wants, but the central authorities in Kiev have lost control. And the population will do what it wants, probably with Russian support, possibly with tacit acceptance from the West. Russian intervention currently seems to have prevented any sort of violent confrontations. Remember right before Russian troops moved, there was a massive fight between the Tatars and Russians, that resulted in at least one fatality (an older woman had a heart attack). Also the blockade at Perekop (entrance to Crimea) is not manned by Russian military. It's manned by self-organized Crimean militias, and an MVD unit formed by the Crimean government (Crimean Berkut). Russian support is significant but not essential to the functioning of these entities.

Similar incidents are occurring elsewhere in Ukraine, Kharkov for example, and it remains to be seen whether they escalate. The current situation in Crimea is certainly less immediately problematic then the situation in Kiev, or elsewhere in central Ukraine.

My question to you is how do you think this should be resolved? I don't think the US or the EU is willing to step in, nor do they have any more legal authority to do so then Russia does (less actually, given that Ukraine is a CIS member, and something could be done using that framework, though it hasn't been so far).

I think it is upto the security council to demand Russia provides proof of what its exact intentions are ,what their peacekeeping mission is ,and how long they intend this operation to last, maybe an idea for the west would be to offer peacekeeping itself to make it a UN mission rather than a Russian invasion.Then if this is just what they say it shouldn't be a problem after all it's not just Russians involved the 300,000 tatars need assurances aswell.

 

[Gremlin29]

The US isn't in a position to do anything even if it wanted to. Ditto for the UN/NATO/EU and Putin knows this. There may be wailing and gnashing of teeth but I don't think Russia has much to fear from the rest of the world in how it may decide to deal with Ukraine.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

Russian Federation Council Vote

Currently watching live on RT, session of Russian Federation Council voting authorization for Putin to introduce more troops into Ukraine.

 

[alexkvaskov]

Currently watching live on RT, session of Russian Federation Council voting authorization for Putin to introduce more troops into Ukraine.

Wasn't it to allow authorization, full stop?

 

[alexkvaskov]

What air force? The regiment at Belbek reportedly had 2-4 flyable MiG-29s. In the entire regiment.

What about PVO assets and other Flanker and Fulcrum units? Doesn't the UkrAF have at least 50 fighters? Ten in flyable condition throughout the country?.. Maybe? Awful situation if even that's not the case.

 

[John Fedup]

What about PVO assets and other Flanker and Fulcrum units? Doesn't the UkrAF have at least 50 fighters? Ten in flyable condition throughout the country?.. Maybe? Awful situation if even that's not the case.

Does taking on the Russian airforce with 50 fighters make any sense even if the pilots and kit were at ready status? I think not, especially as the Ukraine can expect zero support from NATO or the (LOL) UN!

 

[alexkvaskov]

Does taking on the Russian airforce with 50 fighters make any sense even if the pilots and kit were at ready status? I think not, especially as the Ukraine can expect zero support from NATO or the (LOL) UN!

I mean intercepting the intruders. Not that it would do any good, they've lost control over the situation. I don't suppose any amount of pro-EU bravado or Western oriented Ukrainian politicians would actually try to take on Russia militarily. Definitely agree with Feanor as he mentioned earlier this being a strong move for Russia so far.

 

[swerve]

Crimea is very different from any other part of Ukraine.
1) It was part of Russia within the memory of some of its inhabitants. Everywhere else was part of the Ukrainian SSR, or Poland or Romania or Czechoslovakia & then the Ukrainian SSR, from the Civil War until 1991.
2) It has a Russian majority. Everywhere else has more Ukrainians than Russians.
3) It's geographically separate, connected only by a narrow isthmus to the rest of the country. Everywhere else has wide open land borders.
4) It has a distinct legal status, reflecting the above differences. Everywhere else has less local self-government.
5) It had a significant Russian force already based in it. There are no Russian troops anywhere else in Ukraine.

I can see Putin separating Crimea from Ukraine & taking charge of it. Indeed, he's pretty much done that already, easily & bloodlessly. It wouldn't be so easy anywhere else, & I'm sure it wouldn't be bloodless. It could lead to blocked pipelines, costing Russia huge amounts.

 

[Feanor]

I think it is upto the security council to demand Russia provides proof of what its exact intentions are ,what their peacekeeping mission is ,and how long they intend this operation to last, maybe an idea for the west would be to offer peacekeeping itself to make it a UN mission rather than a Russian invasion.Then if this is just what they say it shouldn't be a problem after all it's not just Russians involved the 300,000 tatars need assurances aswell.

Russia is on the Security Council, with veto power. As is China, who would probably not want to take that sort of position. I'm not even sure how willing France would be to take a stance of that sort. So the Security Council is out.

As far as a UN mission, that would cost money and require troops to be provided by other countries. Who's willing to do that? Unless you simply want the Russian troops there to spray-paint their helmets blue...

What about PVO assets and other Flanker and Fulcrum units? Doesn't the UkrAF have at least 50 fighters? Ten in flyable condition throughout the country?.. Maybe? Awful situation if even that's not the case.

Response times might be the issue. The MiG-29 unit in Crimea is under Russian "arrest" effectively, ~300 troops have taken their airfield. They might still have comms with the airspace control units in Crimea, but even that's questionable. They complained about the 10 helos, but so far haven't noticed the Il-76 flights?

2) It has a Russian majority. Everywhere else has more Ukrainians than Russians.

This is the case in a few other places. Eastern Ukraine in general, for example.

3) It's geographically separate, connected only by a narrow isthmus to the rest of the country. Everywhere else has wide open land borders.

This is key. It allows the locals to separate themselves, without requiring a giant cordon of Russian troops.

4) It has a distinct legal status, reflecting the above differences. Everywhere else has less local self-government.
5) It had a significant Russian force already based in it. There are no Russian troops anywhere else in Ukraine.

This is pretty much spot on.

I can see Putin separating Crimea from Ukraine & taking charge of it. Indeed, he's pretty much done that already, easily & bloodlessly. It wouldn't be so easy anywhere else, & I'm sure it wouldn't be bloodless. It could lead to blocked pipelines, costing Russia huge amounts.

North Stream and the Belorussian pipelines so far are running below capacity. I'm not sure if they could compensate for a total loss of the the Ukrainian pipes, but they could at least partially do so. The real problem would be the massive political fallout. And of course Russia doesn't want to take Crimea, and lose the rest of Ukraine. I think they will try to use Crimea as leverage.

 

[Feanor]

Ok, news time.

The Council of the Federation has authorized Russian troops to enter and remain in Ukraine (not Crimea, but all of Ukraine!) until the normalization of the public situation in the country.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. Ввод роÑÑийÑких войÑк разрешен

Russian troops are in Balaclava. This is the first time they've shown up in armored vehicles (unless you count that one column of BTRs that drove form the base to the nearest police post, then turned around).

bmpd - "
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. Балаклава, Донецк, Харьков
Ñîâåò Ôåäåðàöèè: Ðîññèÿ ìîæåò ââåñòè âîéñêà â Êðûì | Óêðàèíñêàÿ ïðàâäà
http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9763/27652091.289/0_8bd1d_9fbe8af6_XL.jpg

It looks like the intervention is taking a comical turn in some instances.

http://s2.ipicture.ru/uploads/20140301/RI2e1T39.jpg

Oh, by the way, someone was wondering, allegedly pair of Ukrainian Su-27s flew over Crimea but "didn't find" any airspace violators. This is supposedly their radio comms, but it's in bad quality, and I can't really make out a whole lot.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p5AkIyKbw4&list=UUz0-o1yiLRVayDc3z7FnbVg"]Вчерашние полеты пары Су-27 ВВС Украины над Крымом - YouTube[/nomedia]

The Ukrainian Navy is leaving Sevastopol. I wonder how many of them would like to follow the Ukrainian frigate, and just raise the Russian flag.

Корабли украинÑкого ВМФ покинули СеваÑтополь - ВМС, Крым, Ð*оÑÑиÑ, СеваÑтополь, Украина, ÐгреÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð*оÑÑии против Украины (01.03.14 19:35) « Политик

But it looks like the situation is escalating elsewhere. IN Kharkov the Euromaydan protesters were kicked out of the government building they occupied earlier. Following this, a Russian flag was raised over the buildings. It looks like the police has sided with the pro-Russian forces in the city. Looks.

Meanwhile Russian livejournal says that the guy raising the Russian flag in the dramatic photo, is himself from Russia. The flag was taken down shortly after, but was met with enthusiasm from the crowd when it was raised.

The casualty toll is 106 wounded, some seriously.

Colonel Cassad -
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGteC1kYRWY"]Штурм ХарьковÑкой ОДРV2 (01.03.2014) - YouTube[/nomedia]
http://newsru.com/world/01mar2014/kharkov1.html

Photos of Russian troops and Crimean Militias.

http://www.interfax.ru/photo/1567/19682
http://vz.ru/photoreport/674954/#ad-image-2

And it looks like Donetsk is in revolt too. Same deal, Russian flags, pro-Russian crowds (reportedly ~10 000).

The police in Donetsk came out and said they were with the people. And a new governor of Donetsk region was "elected".

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/1/675009.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1444339.html

Giant pro-Russian protests also took place in Mariupol, Luganks, Odessa and Nikolaev.

And the total size of the newly formed Crimean Berkut is supposeldy ~4 000 men. Making it a very large force.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1443591.html

Buses of activists from Kiev are headed to Kharkov. It's unclear whether this is old news, and these are the guys that have already been arrested by the local cops, or whether this is reinforcements.

http://eduard-456.livejournal.com/150092.html

And apparently, accelerated grants of Russian citizenship have begun in the Officers House of the Black Sea Fleet. The first to receive them were Crimean Berkut fighters.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/1/675032.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1443329.html

The Ukrainian military has been put in high alert. But given the situation in Crimea and lack of control elsewhere, this could amount to nothing. Or it could amount to war. There's a big question whether they can effectively move anything more then symbolic numbers of troops. There's also a big question as to whether the commanders and officers will be willing to fight.

http://newsru.com/world/01mar2014/boevayagotovnost.html

 

[Todjaeger]

Crimea is very different from any other part of Ukraine.
1) It was part of Russia within the memory of some of its inhabitants. Everywhere else was part of the Ukrainian SSR, or Poland or Romania or Czechoslovakia & then the Ukrainian SSR, from the Civil War until 1991.
2) It has a Russian majority. Everywhere else has more Ukrainians than Russians.
3) It's geographically separate, connected only by a narrow isthmus to the rest of the country. Everywhere else has wide open land borders.
4) It has a distinct legal status, reflecting the above differences. Everywhere else has less local self-government.
5) It had a significant Russian force already based in it. There are no Russian troops anywhere else in Ukraine.

I can see Putin separating Crimea from Ukraine & taking charge of it. Indeed, he's pretty much done that already, easily & bloodlessly. It wouldn't be so easy anywhere else, & I'm sure it wouldn't be bloodless. It could lead to blocked pipelines, costing Russia huge amounts.

The Crimean has an interesting and often ugly history, especially in the 20th Century. That history makes deciding what is the 'right' course quite difficult to determine.

For instance, it was a Soviet decision to have the Crimean made part of the Ukraine SSR in 1954 IIRC.

Complicating the issue of the Crimean having a majority ethnic Russian population is the forced relocation of a number of minority populations away from the Crimean after the Red Army retook the area from the Nazis in WWII. The Crimean Tartars for instance were forced out of the area with significant loss of life (I have seen numbers around 30% - 40%) due to starvation, poor conditions, etc at the direction of Stalin for 'collaborating' with the Nazis. It was not until the start of the breakup of the Soviet Union that Crimean Tartars were allowed to return and resettle in the Crimean. Other minority groups like ethnic Greeks, were similarly expelled from the Crimean.

Also, one of the last conflict areas with the White Army occured in the Crimean.

With these facts in mind, it is little wonder that the non-Russian ethnic groups do not want to fall back under Russian rule. One of the other areas of concern for me is the behavior of non-Russian ethnic Russian forces, particuarly towards those of minority groups. Having looked through some of the information which has come out since the 2008 conflict between Georgians and Ossentians, it does appear that areas in South Ossentia which were ethnically mixed with Georgians and Ossentians had their Georgian inhabitants forced out.

Unfortunately it is currently very hard to forsee a 'good' outcome to the current situation.

 

[Feanor]

it does appear that areas in South Ossentia which were ethnically mixed with Georgians and Ossentians had their Georgian inhabitants forced out.

Unfortunately it is currently very hard to forsee a 'good' outcome to the current situation.

It doesn't "appear", it's fact. The majority of Georgians were kicked out of their homes in Abkhazia and S. Ossetia during the Georgian Civil War in the 90s. The few that remained lost their homes after the 080808 war. Ethnic conflicts are very ugly, and after the amount of killing from both sides in that Civil War, it's not surprising. But it certainly does indicate problems for the future. A lot of those Georgians are still refugees elsewhere in Georgia.

Personally I'm really glad the Crimean Militias are unarmed.

 

[Feanor]

There's a new twitter tag "vezhlivo". Quite a few photos of Russian troops in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/vezhlivo

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpQR7_CQAAJefk.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpRZqzCYAEXMLE.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpTwKFCIAAZaWx.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpXYr_CcAAzVyu.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpCv65CcAAghEX.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpHW5SCcAAlmoX.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpnWRvCUAAWTSt.jpg:large
ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Крым. Балаклава. Ðпдейт.

Also an attempt has been made to seize an air defense unit in Crimea. It's unclear whether the attempt was successful.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Крым. Контроль над ПВО.

 

[Waylander]

For me it looks like the whole situation is just one spark away from erupting in flames.

Such situations tend to gain a momentum of their own.

A shooting war between loyal Ukraine Forces and Russia will be a bloody affair. And god help us all if the Ukrainians didn't surrender all their nuclear warheads and someone gets an itchy finger...

The only positive thing is that the world sees the true nature of the current russian regime. This may very well lead to some of our politicians reevaluating the defense situation of the EU.

 

[gazzzwp]

I think this is disgusting yet again Russia shoves its weight around and all the west does is offer words. it seems to me that Putin is interested in fame rather than common sense. I don't care what the majority of Crimea's population is the fact is that it is Ukrainian land not Russia's. The Ukrainian government have not commited any act's of atrocity against these people so there is no peacekeeping to be done. its like alex salmond asking for the US to invade England just because he doesn't agree with the policies of London that's not the way things are done. I hope at the very least this costs Russia its naval base on Ukrainian soil as they have proven they can't be trusted.

I agree with Feanor. It looks from the outside as if Russia are flexing their military muscles again in defiance of Western wishes but it's really all about patriotic allegiances.

These run deep; however mystifying it may seem to us in the West. What has being part of Russia/USSR actually done for the people of Ukraine in the 20th Century? Highly questionable, Look at the famines of Stalin's time. Look at Chernobyl. Look at the forced relocation that took place during Stalin's time. It's not a happy story.

So where do the deep seated allegiances come from? It's a good question. Yes Russia liberated the area in 1943 and 1944. That maybe the answer I just don't know. Maybe some of the more informed members can help with the cultural perspective here?

The area will have to be split. The Central and Western parts become a part of Europe and reliant on heavy investment; that is for those who do not join the emigration rush to other EU member states. Yes they will come; you can bet on it.

 

[koxinga]

One has also to consider the internal political situation in Russia; Putin, even if he wants to, is unlikely to back down or prevent this de-facto annexation.

The ideal strategic picture for Russia has always been a pliant Ukraine which can function as a buffer between them and EU/NATO by means of a strong, pro-Russian political bloc within Ukraine. But Yanukovych blew their credibility to shreds with Maidan .

Let's hope this will be a painless separation.