Chinese 'air defence identification zone' in East China Sea

[STURM]

One thing's for sure, Japan will seek to increase her diplomatic presence and cement her ties in South East Asia and certain South East Asian countries - though they might not say it publicly - will welcome Japan's greater involvement in the region.The Japanese PM spoke of the ''rule of law and respect'' during a meeting with Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN] leaders.

Japan pledges billions in aid to ASEAN region - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera English

On another note, a pair of Chinese Maritime OPVs have been anchored for quite some time near the 5 reefs occupied by Malaysia in the Spratlys. One theory is that they are there to provide assistance in the event of Chinese trawlers - which are getting more active in the area - being intercepted by the Malaysians.To date, nothing much has changed and a standard routine is played out; the Chinese enter the area and the Malaysians send a ship to intercept them. The Malaysians get on the radio - sometimes using a Mandarin speaker - and the Chinese totally ignore them but eventually leave the area after sometime. The concern is what will happen when the Chinese don't leave the area and start sending survey ships. To avoid incidents with the Chinese, Royal Malaysian Navy [RMN] ships in the area operate under very strict ROEs.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R28-b-nNtR0"]101 East - Standoff at Scarborough Shoal - YouTube[/nomedia]


http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-malaysia-isnt-afraid-of-china-for-now/

 

[Geddy]

So a real world update on activity in the ADIZ. Over the last few days flying through the area I heard repeated Japanese military radio traffic calling all stations advising that Japanese aircraft are operating in a general location "in international airspace operating according to international law".

The Chinese are occasional calling specific aircraft ( location, heading etc) that they are operating in Chinese "military airspace" asking to identify their nationality. The are also great than usual numbers of calls from US military aircraft, though not all call of course.... :/.

This level of activity activity is quite unusual.

 

[AegisFC]

This isn't strictly to do with the ADIZ, but in the same vein. I didn't see this one at the time in the mainstream press - CNN has a little here U.S., Chinese warships come dangerously close – CNN Security Clearance - CNN.com Blogs and more here Chinese Naval Vessel Tries to Force U.S. Warship to Stop in International Waters | Washington Free Beacon

The USS Cowpens was carrying out "routine operation done to exercise its freedom of navigation near the Chinese carrier".

Ah, memories of the cold war, when the USN was frustrated at Soviet "Fishing Trawlers" hanging around their carriers.

This is not particularly surprising. The US is a known quantity, and has generally behaved quite well towards these countries in the recent decades. China on the other hand is unknown and has invaded it's neighbors in the past.

Out of curiosity does Vietnam also seek closer military ties with the US?

Yes but they are being cautious about it. The USN has been conducting port visits and mutual training since 2008.

 

[Feanor]

Ah, memories of the cold war, when the USN was frustrated at Soviet "Fishing Trawlers" hanging around their carriers.

Phishing Trawlers?

Yes but they are being cautious about it. The USN has been conducting port visits and mutual training since 2008.

Interesting. In recent months a few claims have appeared in Russian press claiming that an agreement has been reached for a Russian Naval Base at Kamran (where the old Soviet naval station was). So Vietnam is not putting all its eggs in one basket. It will be quite ironic if Russia and the US end up on the same side opposing Chinese expansion.

Yes, she has sought greater US engagement - in fact relations between the US and Vietnam are pretty good - there are also emerging military links.

Yes, I know there is quite a bit of US tourism to Vietnam (my old college roommate went there over the summer), and diplomatic relations have been good. I was wondering specifically about defense and military ties. Thanks.

 

[cdxbow]

There is still a lot of distrust amongst older Vietnamese toward the US, having fought in the 'American War', but there's not that many of them left. 80% of Vietnamese are too young to remember the war, and these younger Vietnamese generally view the US positively.

Vietnam is also the most natural ally against China, having been invaded a dozen or so times in the last few thousand years, and manage to repel them. Even last century there was the 1979 invasion of Vietnam by the PRC, and the ongoing dispute about the Spratly Islands.

If PRC gets more aggressive then I wouldn't be surprised to see a more formal alliance between the old soviet allies of Vietnam/India with the US and it's SEA allies, already there is significant cooperation. If stuff like this Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years | China Daily Mail has any truth to it, then Russia will need to side with the US, too. Wouldn't that be ironic, just about everyone on the same side!

 

[gf0012-aust]

If stuff like this Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years | China Daily Mail has any truth to it, then Russia will need to side with the US, too. Wouldn't that be ironic, just about everyone on the same side!

I interviewed ex Soviet/Warpac emigrants a few years ago in another job - all of them universally saw that their home countries would eventually ally up with the west against China.. Despute the calculated happy snaps of russians and chinese wanting to be seen as strong against the US, they mistrust each other more than they mistrust the US

They certainly see the chinese moving by stealth into the east - and there are a few border incidents between the russians and the chinese that don't get a lot of airplay

The Viets will keep the russians and the US as intermittent partners as they don't trust either to stand by them constantly - and they see it as a balance to help survive against any further chinese problems

I'd suggest that both the russians and the US also have the same diplomatic realities front and centre...

 

[colay]

Hasn't Viet Nam partnered with India to explore oil resources in the South China Sea? This would be a natural excuse for India to establish a presence there as well and provide still another counter-balance to,China.

 

[Feanor]

I interviewed ex Soviet/Warpac emigrants a few years ago in another job - all of them universally saw that their home countries would eventually ally up with the west against China.. Despute the calculated happy snaps of russians and chinese wanting to be seen as strong against the US, they mistrust each other more than they mistrust the US

In Russia, there is a powerful "China threat" group. Lots and lots of people see China not just as a potential threat, but as an eventual invader. Literally inevitable.

 

[CB90]

In Russia, there is a powerful "China threat" group. Lots and lots of people see China not just as a potential threat, but as an eventual invader. Literally inevitable.

I'd say with very few exceptions, just about everybody in close proximity to China right now is asking very similar questions. It's amazing how they've managed to alienate all their neighbors.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I'd say with very few exceptions, just about everybody in close proximity to China right now is asking very similar questions. It's amazing how they've managed to alienate all their neighbors.

They have successfully managed to achieve the exact opposite of their strategic intent - ie marginilise the US - in fact its the region who have upped their engagement with the US - the US hasn't had to do anything

 

[gf0012-aust]

In Russia, there is a powerful "China threat" group. Lots and lots of people see China not just as a potential threat, but as an eventual invader. Literally inevitable.

That was certainly their view - they were pretty amped up about chinese leaking into Siberia and other Eastern areas

One of them would have made LeMay and McArthur proud - his view was that they should deal with them now rather than later.

There seemed to be a consistency of opinion on dates - always circa 2020-2025

 

[tonyget]

I'd say with very few exceptions, just about everybody in close proximity to China right now is asking very similar questions. It's amazing how they've managed to alienate all their neighbors.

Actually, China's relations with neighbors is better than old time. During cold war period, the relation with Soviet/Viemam/India/SE Asia etc is much worse than now.

 

[tonyget]

That was certainly their view - they were pretty amped up about chinese leaking into Siberia and other Eastern areas

Like some Americans think that one day the US will be part of Mexico

 

[ngatimozart]

The Indian Navy is to train Vietnamese Navy personnel in submarine warfare and the two countries are also expanding their defence links. India has extended Vietnam a US$100 million line of credit for military purchases, plus the two countries are jointly undertaking oil exploration in the Phu Kanh basin of the South China Sea which is claimed by Vietnam and China. The Chinese will get a somewhat septic about all three of these developments and one Indian observer noted that it could be impetus for the Chinese to give Pakistan a nuclear sub. The Vietnamese Ambassador in New dehli said that the defence partnership between the two countries "... is a pillar of the srategic relation between the two countries." India To Train Vietnamese Sailors, Expand Ties | Defense News | defensenews.com. Also not as important but NZ has signed a defence co-operation agreement with Vietnam. It sets out a framework for visits, exercises, exchanes and ship visits and is non binding. http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-defence-arrangement-viet-nam. I would not be surprised if the Vietnamese either have something or would be after something similar with Australia. I would also not be surprised if they may have approached Tokyo.

 

[Twain]

Hasn't Viet Nam partnered with India to explore oil resources in the South China Sea? This would be a natural excuse for India to establish a presence there as well and provide still another counter-balance to,China.

There have been some oil exploration agreements between India and Vietnam. I don't think they have accomplished much so far though. There have been a small number of navy visits too, China was not happy about that.



China confronts Indian navy vessel


A Chinese warship confronted an Indian navy vessel shortly after it left a Vietnamese port in late July in the first such encounter between the two countries’ navies in the South China Sea.
The unidentified Chinese warship demanded that India’s INS Airavat, an amphibious assault vessel, identify itself and explain its presence in what it said were Chinese waters, shortly after it completed a scheduled port call in Vietnam.


China confronts Indian navy vessel - FT.com

 

[CB90]

Actually, China's relations with neighbors is better than old time. During cold war period, the relation with Soviet/Viemam/India/SE Asia etc is much worse than now.

Sure, relative to actually engaging in border/land wars with the USSR, Vietnam, and India, relations are definitely better now.

Comparing relations between the 90's and now, I don't think I'd call it an upward trend.

 

[Todjaeger]

Like some Americans think that one day the US will be part of Mexico

Funny, this would be the first I have ever heard of this. Granted I do not know all Americans, but the ones I interact with are not of the opinion that the US will become part of Mexico.

Some are concerned with how much certain areas of the US have a majority of their population as some extraction of Latin American, and how much (or how little) such groups/areas might follow customary methods of doing things within the US and/or US laws.

All that having been said, that is getting rather far afield from the PRC.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Japan, ASEAN seek "freedom of overflight" amid China tensions

Japan, ASEAN seek "freedom of overflight" amid China tensions - Channel NewsAsia

The issue for china will be what she has been inferring recently with other countries - oe play nice or it will impact on trade relations....

whether she likes it or not, that will be seen as middle kingdom mentality....

 

[Feanor]

That was certainly their view - they were pretty amped up about chinese leaking into Siberia and other Eastern areas

One of them would have made LeMay and McArthur proud - his view was that they should deal with them now rather than later.

There seemed to be a consistency of opinion on dates - always circa 2020-2025

In the 2005 timeframe, it was 2015-2020. And if you go back and look at the "China threat" publications from the 1999-2000s, the time frame is 2010-2015. So it's a stable time gap that's far enough away for people to forget about the claims, but close enough for people to be alarmed.

The Indian Navy is to train Vietnamese Navy personnel in submarine warfare and the two countries are also expanding their defence links.

The submarine warfare center is actually being built by Russia for Vietam, for the Project 636 Improved Kilos. Vietnam has also requested the BrahMos missile from India. There is definitely some cooperation between those two.

 

[Rimasta]

In the 2005 timeframe, it was 2015-2020. And if you go back and look at the "China threat" publications from the 1999-2000s, the time frame is 2010-2015. So it's a stable time gap that's far enough away for people to forget about the claims, but close enough for people to be alarmed.



The submarine warfare center is actually being built by Russia for Vietam, for the Project 636 Improved Kilos. Vietnam has also requested the BrahMos missile from India. There is definitely some cooperation between those two.

I can't remember where I read it, I believe a years old edition of Armed Forces Journal or AFJ magazine. What I recall is a Chinese source stating a deadline of 2020, which by peaceful means or by force, Taiwan WILL be reunified by the year 2020. I read that around 2005-2006. Sorry I'm not going to dig that copy out of storage and I obviously can't comment on its credibility but given the fact that the Chinese have added thousands of missiles systems on the western side of the Formosa straits, and that their build up of forces seems strongest here, I believe China is setting the stage to meet this deadline.
The ADIZ is to the north-east of Taiwan, the most likely direction US CBG's will approach from should we intervene in a cross strait conflict. The waters to the South and East seem too constricted to maneuver one or more CBG, not to mention Yokohoma bay and Okinawa are also to Taiwan's north-east, meaning the airforce could cover the Navy with AWACS and F-15's from the north. Could the ADIZ been part of a larger strategy to isolate Taiwan? Setting up the framework and the possible battlespace today, for a conflict that could take 5-7 years from now?