A hypothetical carrier buy for the RAN?

[Sea Toby]

who said anything about getting 2 bays?

Well, Australia isn't going to get a used Bay and a future sea lift ship for $200 million when the future sea lift ship is marked at $200 million... I can guarantee the British aren't GIVING away the Lars Bay for FREE....

Keep in mind a few years ago New Zealand bought the Canterbury for $180+ million with NZ dollars, probably over 160 million with Aussie dollars...

 

[SASWanabe]

Well, Australia isn't going to get a used Bay and a future sea lift ship for $200 million when the future sea lift ship is marked at $200 million... I can guarantee the British aren't GIVING away the Lars Bay for FREE....

Keep in mind a few years ago New Zealand bought the Canterbury for $180+ million with NZ dollars, probably over 160 million with Aussie dollars...

more like 130m NZD, ie ~100m AUD today money.

not that we would want a Canterbury

 

[Sea Toby]

more like 130m NZD, ie ~100m AUD today money.

not that we would want a Canterbury

I found this at the Ministry of Defence website: NZ $176.874 million...

Project Protector [Ministry of Defence NZ]

Wiki says NZ$130 million... Wiki isn't exactly a reliable source for a number of reasons... Probably someone in the past confused US with NZ dollars and posted the falsehood... I have full faith and trust upon the NZ Ministry of Defence...

I haven't a clue what the exact sum of a sale/lease will be for a used Bay class ship will be, but I do know Australia won't be getting a used Bay and a new Canterbury for Aussie $200 million...

The used cream puff Bay I will guess should run around Aus. $200 million, give or take Aus $10 million or so...

 

[StingrayOZ]

Should we be buying two? Is there a need for it?

Larg bay seems like a good fit, while I understand we don't buy everything thats offered, this seems like a made for preposal for something we need now, or really 3-5 years ago. Price is within what we want, obvious that it will work well with UK forces and has simular ships in service with many navies.

 

[swerve]

I don't watch the currency exchange rates much, but in the past I would say the Aussie dollar is worth about two British pounds sterling offhand... And while its true she will fetch what they can catch for her, and probably get less, I doubt very much Australia will be able to fetch her and a newly built sister for Aussie $200 million... Australia is NOT going to get two ships for the price of one...

The British are not so naive to sell a four year old ship for half price, they would be better off laying her up and keeping her... If anything concerning the deep recession, the Aussie government will pocket whatever savings of the used ship...

The current exchange rate is AUD1.6 to £1. That took a few seconds to find out, BTW. AUD200 million is therefore £125 million, i.e. almost twice what her properly-priced sister ships cost to build. AUD200 million is DOUBLE price, not half price.

I can't see her costing more than AUD100 million. That wouldn't be half price, but a modest discount on the new-build price of Mounts Bay & Cardigan Bay, to reflect the fact that she's not quite new.

As for getting two ships - why? The official requirement is for one. If Largs Bay can fill the requirement, why buy another one? The RAN currently has three amphibious warfare ships, totalling 23000 tons: two heavily modified ex-USN LSTs (now LPAs) & an LSL for sealift. It's replacing them with three ships: two LHDs of about 27000 tons each, & a single sealift ship which it reckons should be 12-15000 tons. Largs Bay is 16000, & fits the sealift requirement in capabilities pretty well. Where do you get the idea that the RAN needs Largs Bay and another sealift ship?

 

[aussienscale]

take your pick, depending on who you talk to in Navy, any one of them is donald ducked.....

He He, I have heard they are all Quacking

Understand that you can't comment on the other, although I did hear on the grape vine (no names no court marshalls) that there was a rather impresive offer on the Leo 2

 

[StingrayOZ]

Well given what the germans had a lot of it could proberly be estimated what was on offer and what some other countries took up.

Then again, I don't think the M1's were a terrible deal, and we tend to work more with the americans than the Canadians or Germans with that type of asset. No doubt more expensive than the Leos would have been, although it would have been a bit more if they were all upgraded..

Then again if it was my personal money..

 

[Sea Toby]

The current exchange rate is AUD1.6 to £1. That took a few seconds to find out, BTW. AUD200 million is therefore £125 million, i.e. almost twice what her properly-priced sister ships cost to build. AUD200 million is DOUBLE price, not half price.

I can't see her costing more than AUD100 million. That wouldn't be half price, but a modest discount on the new-build price of Mounts Bay & Cardigan Bay, to reflect the fact that she's not quite new.

As for getting two ships - why? The official requirement is for one. If Largs Bay can fill the requirement, why buy another one? The RAN currently has three amphibious warfare ships, totalling 23000 tons: two heavily modified ex-USN LSTs (now LPAs) & an LSL for sealift. It's replacing them with three ships: two LHDs of about 27000 tons each, & a single sealift ship which it reckons should be 12-15000 tons. Largs Bay is 16000, & fits the sealift requirement in capabilities pretty well. Where do you get the idea that the RAN needs Largs Bay and another sealift ship?

I was responding to SAS Wanabe of post #753... I agree with you, as I said before, if Australia buys or leases a Bay class ship, that ship will end up being the third amphibious ship, the future new ship.... There won't be another ship purchased or leased....

On 1 Jan 2007 the Australian dollar and British pound currency exchange rate was:
AUD Australia Dollars 2.4858945224 0.4022696824

http://www.xe.com/ict/?basecur=GBP&...ort_by=name&image.x=69&image.y=8&image=Submit

Practically Aus. $2.5 per UK 1 pound.... Don't use todays currency exchange rates for figures from 2006-2007 please... The rates change considerably over a few years and were not the same a few years ago...

 

[icelord]

He He, I have heard they are all Quacking

Understand that you can't comment on the other, although I did hear on the grape vine (no names no court marshalls) that there was a rather impresive offer on the Leo 2

PZH2000....there were looking at reduced prices across the board if we sent Bushmasters there way, instead they got bushmasters and we got 3 year delay in Land 125 purchase of SPG artillary...

The stories about offer of spruances, reduced price Flt I Arleigh burghs as well has been around for a while. The LPA seemed to have scared the ADF into avoiding anything 2nd hand, and then the sea sprite didnt instil confidence.

Having looked on Lyme bay while in bahrain im very impressed with the ship, and the crew themselves maintained it well. I would expect the same of largs bay. What will be amusing is seeing this monster ship for the first time berth FBE, as a precursor of what to expect with the LHD. I wonder if the painful neighbours of Kings cross and wolloolmoolloo pier have any idea what they are in for with these coming in.:lol3

 

[gf0012-aust]

I wonder if the painful neighbours of Kings cross and wolloolmoolloo pier have any idea what they are in for with these coming in.:lol3

my daughter is in those apartments right alongside the wharf -

 

[icelord]

my daughter is in those apartments right alongside the wharf -

Does she call FBE OOD on a sunday complaining theres to much noise coming from the ships at berth 5?
Best i had while duty was 4 calls, the 4th while the OOD was onboard wondering what the fuss was, seems in summer people open there doors and listen to city noise, guess the navy is interrupting that.

My issue is similar to those who move next to the airport and complain about the planes taking off...they are kidding right? You move into urban environment and expect silence? We have to maintain min. piping of a day, to the point no upper deck pipes, even warnings or emergencys dont get piped cause someone forgot to press uppers. Its OHS and i hate it, all because we must please a few people...god i love rants...

I do hope shes not in the apartment down the end where the couple tend to be...liberal in walking around the house in terms of clothing:lol3

 

[gf0012-aust]

Does she call FBE OOD on a sunday complaining theres to much noise coming from the ships at berth 5?
Best i had while duty was 4 calls, the 4th while the OOD was onboard wondering what the fuss was, seems in summer people open there doors and listen to city noise, guess the navy is interrupting that.

nope, she loves ships (she did maritime security for cunard for a while) she used to take mobile phone happy snaps and text messages asking what ships they were

I do hope shes not in the apartment down the end where the couple tend to be...liberal in walking around the house in terms of clothing:lol3

not as bad as across the harbour from Bldg 130 - we used to see people on the 4th floor engaging in vigorous reproductive activity. I swear the bldg used to lean over once we all knew when they were "on". spare binoculars at all critical windows....

 

[swerve]

On 1 Jan 2007 the Australian dollar and British pound currency exchange rate was:
AUD Australia Dollars 2.4858945224 0.4022696824

XE - United Kingdom Pounds - GBP rate table

Practically Aus. $2.5 per UK 1 pound.... Don't use todays currency exchange rates for figures from 2006-2007 please... The rates change considerably over a few years and were not the same a few years ago...

True, but we're talking about prices incurred in sterling (for the building of the Bays), & relating them to a current sale price in sterling, & what that is in AUD now. For such a comparison, using past exchange rates is meaningless & pointless. Australia was not party to the original (sterling) transaction, & has no interest in what it might have cost in AUD at the time.

Think about it in your own terms. If someone from the UK came to you & offered to buy your old car, would you convert what you paid for it into GBP at the exchange rate when you bought it, & use that for working out what a fair GBP price is now? Of course not! All you care about is how many AUD you paid originally, & how much it's depreciated since. Changes in the exchange rate are irrelevant to you. For the buyer, the same: he doesn't care how many pounds (at the then exchange rate) you paid, only how many he has to pay now. He wasn't involved in the past transaction.

Same here. The UK govt. isn't even going to think for a second about what a Bay cost in AUD in 2006, or whenever. What matters is how many pounds it cost, & how many pounds it can be sold for now. And for Australia, only that current price at the current exchange rate is significant.

To recap: $200 mn Australian is worth £125 mn now. That's almost as much as TWO Bay class built by BAe cost new. If the UK could sell Largs Bay for £62.5mn (i.e. close to what the BAe ships cost new), the Treasury would be very happy indeed, & would probably be content to settle for less. £62.5mn is AUD100 mn.

There is no reason to consider past AUD/GBP rates. They're not significant to either party.

 

[Sea Toby]

There is no reason to consider past AUD/GBP rates. They're not significant to either party.

All so true, Australia should get a deal for the Bay. But Wannabe SAS was under the impression Australia will still get another, a fourth amphibious ship, or another future sea lift ship for AUD 200 million... The Canterbury ran NZ close to NZD180 million, surely you don't think Australia would get a newly built more expensive LSD for less today to be delivered four or more years from now, most likely eight or nine years... The British were able to get savings by buying more than one ship, they bought four... Whether Australia built the new ship either in Australia or elsewhere, the ship will be a single order at least eight years apart....

 

[gf0012-aust]

For such a comparison, using past exchange rates is meaningless & pointless. Australia was not party to the original (sterling) transaction, & has no interest in what it might have cost in AUD at the time.

----------------

There is no reason to consider past AUD/GBP rates. They're not significant to either party.

exactly. the prev costs will not come into the equation. australia goes into this as a new cold sale.

if this was a legacy transaction (similar to an FMS) then there might be cause to go into protracted negotiations and for the UK to try and recover

as it is, australia would negotiate from current rates. the UK would seek to mitigate the loss in opportunity by trying to build in a short term sustainment or cross training cost - that way they would start setting contingency and currency fluctuation variables (as would australia)

on a straight sale there is no opportunity for prev exchange rates and sunk cost issues to be bought into play

 

[swerve]

All so true, Australia should get a deal for the Bay. But Wannabe SAS was under the impression Australia will still get another, a fourth amphibious ship, or another future sea lift ship for AUD 200 million... The Canterbury ran NZ close to NZD180 million, surely you don't think Australia would get a newly built more expensive LSD for less today to be delivered four or more years from now, most likely eight or nine years... The British were able to get savings by buying more than one ship, they bought four... Whether Australia built the new ship either in Australia or elsewhere, the ship will be a single order at least eight years apart....

Mostly agree, but you should remember that Canterbury was bought when the NZ$ was weak. That's where comparing past & current exchange rates can affect things. The AUD is pretty strong now, so while prices in euros, pounds or whatever will have gone up, they may have dropped in AUD.

But yeah, a new build LSD for less than AUD200 million, ordered a few years down the road? Unless you go for Korean very cheap, like Indonesia, that would require the AUD to be a lot stronger than I reckon is feasible. And anyway, as we've agreed, it isn't an issue if Oz gets Largs Bay, as that should provide all you need to supplement the LHDs.

Get your bid in quick, though. It seems the Chileans haven't made up their minds to buy Foudre, & are sending some people to inspect Largs Bay. Foudre could be cheaper, though (15 years older & a bit smaller), & according to JDW they've also been offered one of the Italian Santi.

 

[Sea Toby]

Mostly agree, but you should remember that Canterbury was bought when the NZ$ was weak. That's where comparing past & current exchange rates can affect things. The AUD is pretty strong now, so while prices in euros, pounds or whatever will have gone up, they may have dropped in AUD.

But yeah, a new build LSD for less than AUD200 million, ordered a few years down the road? Unless you go for Korean very cheap, like Indonesia, that would require the AUD to be a lot stronger than I reckon is feasible. And anyway, as we've agreed, it isn't an issue if Oz gets Largs Bay, as that should provide all you need to supplement the LHDs.

Get your bid in quick, though. It seems the Chileans haven't made up their minds to buy Foudre, & are sending some people to inspect Largs Bay. Foudre could be cheaper, though (15 years older & a bit smaller), & according to JDW they've also been offered one of the Italian Santi.

I have noticed many of the nations which acquired used US ex-Newports during the 1990s will soon replace them within the next ten years? Its not just Australia looking for replacements....


It would not surprise me if Portugal, Chile, Brazil, India, and South Africa might be interested in buying/leasing the discarded British Bay besides Australia at a fire sale price...

 

[swerve]

Spain bought two Newports in the 1990s & is just completing their replacement.

Brazil is looking to replace the one (& two even older Thomaston class LSDs) bought between 1989 & 2000.

Chile has just retired the one it bought, rather than pay for a refit, & is seeking a newer secondhand ship ASAP. The Chileans were looking at a new ship, but perhaps the rush of relatively new European amphibs onto the market has caused them to change their minds, & also affected their calculations of the cost-effectiveness of refitting Valdivia.

But - Peru has just bought two Newports, & Malaysia is replacing Sri Inderapura/Spartanburg County now only because she was destroyed by fire.

I've not heard that Morocco, Taiwan or Mexico is seeking replacements for theirs yet, though that doesn't mean it's not happening.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I don't think Australia would have any difficulty out bidding any other customer.

I just hope the RN lives up to there end of the deal and delivers it, and doesnt all of a sudden decides she needs her and ferks up our procurement..

Australia hasn't exactly had a great run buying "great deals", either from the RN or the USN.. We won't rush this, we have the money for a new build. Australia has passed up even sweeter deals than this.

 

[StoresBasher]

I don't think Australia would have any difficulty out bidding any other customer.

I just hope the RN lives up to there end of the deal and delivers it, and doesnt all of a sudden decides she needs her and ferks up our procurement..

Australia hasn't exactly had a great run buying "great deals", either from the RN or the USN.. We won't rush this, we have the money for a new build. Australia has passed up even sweeter deals than this.

It's more like whether we want to buy it.
We have been told that a decision has still not yet been made.