Potential International Response to an Outbreak of Hostilitiles in Korea
- Thread starter RubiconNZ
- Start date
The econmics
South Korea exports less than 20% of its products to the USA, moreover only 17% of South Korean foreign investment heads for the USA; South Koreas’ economy is 80% dependent on China. It’s hard to see any future conflict between the North and South as Korean unification is assured, with the shifting of regional power to China. Taiwan is 90% dependent on China.
South Korea exports less than 20% of its products to the USA, moreover only 17% of South Korean foreign investment heads for the USA; South Koreas’ economy is 80% dependent on China. It’s hard to see any future conflict between the North and South as Korean unification is assured, with the shifting of regional power to China. Taiwan is 90% dependent on China.
North Korea reminds of the type of annoying person that kept on loudmouthing and taunting you. You know you can beat him to a pulp at any point, but he threatens to bleed all over you and drag his neighbor in if you do.
Some people are expressing optimism that North Korean military can be quickly disabled by surgical strikes. Personally I doubt that is the case since they have built extensive underground infrastructure throughout the decades, especially after the collapse of Soviets. North Korean military command is under no illusion and know they cannot win a conventional battle. I think their strategy is to drag down any invading force as long as possible so China can intervene on their behalf.
Question is, will China?
Some people are expressing optimism that North Korean military can be quickly disabled by surgical strikes. Personally I doubt that is the case since they have built extensive underground infrastructure throughout the decades, especially after the collapse of Soviets. North Korean military command is under no illusion and know they cannot win a conventional battle. I think their strategy is to drag down any invading force as long as possible so China can intervene on their behalf.
Question is, will China?
Sampanviking
Banned Member
The answer is yes they will and anyone that thinks otherwise is living in cloud cuckoo land.
There are only two options for the peninsular:
1) The status quo which China can live with and gradually absorb the north into its economic sphere.
2) If the Status Quo breaks down, reunification but only on Chinese terms.
This is fully understood in the region and much of the recent tensions are a pantomime mainly from Seoul with the unexpressed aim of keeping the the ROK export recovery rolling with a competitive exchange rate.
On the 23rd Nov the Won fell to its weakest in nearly a year, but has since been strengthening again until the 3rd December when it was approaching the level of the 22nd Nov again. At this point the new South Korean Defence Minister makes dire warnings about further provocations and massive retaliation. In a few hours I expect to see the latest daily exchange results to be published and to see that the Won has fallen back again.
I know DF is a military and hardware site, but in this instance; for this region Hot Money is a WMD of almost incomparable devastational power, as survivors of the 90's Asian Financial crisis remember all to clearly. Hot money flows in and pushes up assets and currencies making huge profits for the speculators in very short periods of time and then pulls out leaving utter nationwide ruin in its wake.
It is a major problem and will produce very robust high stakes responses from the endangered countries.
There are only two options for the peninsular:
1) The status quo which China can live with and gradually absorb the north into its economic sphere.
2) If the Status Quo breaks down, reunification but only on Chinese terms.
This is fully understood in the region and much of the recent tensions are a pantomime mainly from Seoul with the unexpressed aim of keeping the the ROK export recovery rolling with a competitive exchange rate.
On the 23rd Nov the Won fell to its weakest in nearly a year, but has since been strengthening again until the 3rd December when it was approaching the level of the 22nd Nov again. At this point the new South Korean Defence Minister makes dire warnings about further provocations and massive retaliation. In a few hours I expect to see the latest daily exchange results to be published and to see that the Won has fallen back again.
I know DF is a military and hardware site, but in this instance; for this region Hot Money is a WMD of almost incomparable devastational power, as survivors of the 90's Asian Financial crisis remember all to clearly. Hot money flows in and pushes up assets and currencies making huge profits for the speculators in very short periods of time and then pulls out leaving utter nationwide ruin in its wake.
It is a major problem and will produce very robust high stakes responses from the endangered countries.
well i think if n. And s. Korea went into war against each other there's only one thing for sure: it's gonna be the start of ww3 with us and eu backing s. Korea and russia and china on n. Korea. One more thing, kim jong il warned that if he lose he'll destroy the world with their nukes arsenal (although it won't even be enough to destroy whole s. Korea)
It will not start WW3, just the 2nd Korean War. Neither side wants to go nuclear.
China will lose, but not militarily. The US will use it as an excuse to:
1) Cancel their debt held by China, about 2+ trillion dollars. (Note: This might be enough to make the war actually profitable!)
2) Nationalize their US investments, about another 500+ billion dollars.
3) Blockade their sea trade.
The US allies will follow suit.
Militarily it would be similar to the 1st South Korean Wat the South Korean and US forces could just perform a fighting retreat while building a new defensive line far enough north of Seoul to be out of cannon and rocket range, then dare them to attack or accept the staus quo. Diplomatically China would be told “You broke it, you own it”.
End result is the Chinese economy has collapsed and they are stuck with a new territory that is an economic disaster that will slow their recovery.
A better approach for China would be to join the alliance and invade from the north, then try to arrange a partitioning of North Korea similar to Germany after WWII based on the area already under their control.
Sampanviking
Banned Member
Seriously, is this the level of nonsense circulating in North America these days?
I hate to break bad news, but cancelling debt is never that easy. Most of the $900 Billion of US Federal Debt held by the PRC are in the form of T Bonds, which are Debenture Stock and which can be resold to any interested party.
Mind you this is immaterial, as the most likely effect of a serious world conflict breaking out today would be the melt down of all over-extended, debased and generally weakened currencies, of which the dollar is king.
As for the course of any conflict, just remember how the US won WW2. They did it by getting more men in uniform than anyone else and having an Industrial Power House of a nation that could turn out adequate equipment faster and cheaper than anyone else. Guess which country is best able to do this in 2010?
I have some advice for the US. Accept the inevitable and its future subordinate role as a second tier world power, (PRC GDP now expected to overtake US between 2020 and 2025) stop wasting its resources in an arms race it is bound to lose and in a way that will make the Soviet collapse look pretty. Instead work with China to create an orderly East Asian transition from a US to a China model.
That one made me laugh. A lot. Even just the concept that unilateral cancellation of debts would just remotely be possible...
And that one too. :hehe
By everyone else being virtually broke at the end, including most Allies?
Humming Drone
New Member
Canceling or refusing to pay debt is an unrealistic scenario, even considering a default. Inflation might help solve some of the problems, but I would leave that out of the picture for now.
Please don't compare WW2 and current scenario. First, US has the ability to take out China's industry and cripple it economically while China can not effectively do the same to the US (not considering nukes and electronic warfare). Second, while "getting to point A fastest with the mostest" is still important, it creates enormous logistical challenges and would require advanced and effective command and control capability to apply the force effectively. Finally, ability to produce a lot of equipment will be critical in a war of attrition which is an unlikely scenario in this case.
Well, these are the fighting words right here. I am happy for you that you can predict and are so certain of the future. Please separate facts and opinions. I will refrain from commenting on this part of your post at this time.
Regards,
HD
Glad to see you keeping your head about this :lol
Lol we have never been able to tell our place. Nor will we accept it. Also your forgetting the Chinese problem with having a Very large aging population. So they are facing their own Boom and Bust generational problem soon nor does it adress many, many internal issue they have and are going to have to deal with.
The future isnt set in stone. And i dont trust fortune tellers.
Sampanviking
Banned Member
You know, coming here these days is a bit like walking into one of those bars, where you get a succession of drunks coming up to you telling you how they are so wonderful, successful, hard and rich and then start hustling you for the price of a drink.
The International Response (ie US Response) will be the response of a Government that already owes as much as the entire nation produces in a year, but which is also increasing the rate at which debt is growing. In 2009 the Washington was borrowing about $4 for every $10 it spent. This year it seems more like $4.50 for every $10 and with no serious deficit reduction even being discussed, it will be only a short time before debt financing hits 50% and enters the poorly charted territory beyond.
Yet is spite of this we are told how a never precession of new and incredibly expensive wonder weapons are going to maintain the balance of power for the west forever and how of course Washington would start MAD just for the sake of Seoul or the loss of a Carrier and that somehow the laws of reality just do not apply in America's case.
Well, any decent barkeep would be saying now "I think you had enough buddy - go home!"
Seriously, at this rate of growing indebtedness, China will not need to worry about sinking Carriers, they will just send the Repo guys!!
The situation on the peninsular can run along at a level of high tension for a long time, even with regular incidents, without blowing over into full scale conflict. Throughout this time the US will be sinking deeper and deeper in the fiscal mire. Sooner or later the cuts will have to come and when they do, the choice will be stark - either reduce and withdraw from much of the world and maintain a small, modern and capable armed forces, or pretend nothing is wrong and try to continue with the worlds largest military on rapidly shrinking resources and watch capability both stagnate and rot in service.
Either way, by the time that the Asian powers decide to apply final remedy, the US will either be gone or incapable of making any meaningful difference. The Asian powers can see the finish line and are more than happy to simply coast towards it at a comfortable speed.
The International Response (ie US Response) will be the response of a Government that already owes as much as the entire nation produces in a year, but which is also increasing the rate at which debt is growing. In 2009 the Washington was borrowing about $4 for every $10 it spent. This year it seems more like $4.50 for every $10 and with no serious deficit reduction even being discussed, it will be only a short time before debt financing hits 50% and enters the poorly charted territory beyond.
Yet is spite of this we are told how a never precession of new and incredibly expensive wonder weapons are going to maintain the balance of power for the west forever and how of course Washington would start MAD just for the sake of Seoul or the loss of a Carrier and that somehow the laws of reality just do not apply in America's case.
Well, any decent barkeep would be saying now "I think you had enough buddy - go home!"
Seriously, at this rate of growing indebtedness, China will not need to worry about sinking Carriers, they will just send the Repo guys!!
The situation on the peninsular can run along at a level of high tension for a long time, even with regular incidents, without blowing over into full scale conflict. Throughout this time the US will be sinking deeper and deeper in the fiscal mire. Sooner or later the cuts will have to come and when they do, the choice will be stark - either reduce and withdraw from much of the world and maintain a small, modern and capable armed forces, or pretend nothing is wrong and try to continue with the worlds largest military on rapidly shrinking resources and watch capability both stagnate and rot in service.
Either way, by the time that the Asian powers decide to apply final remedy, the US will either be gone or incapable of making any meaningful difference. The Asian powers can see the finish line and are more than happy to simply coast towards it at a comfortable speed.
Could we perhaps avoid referring to those of differing opinions as drunkards and prophesying the downfall of their nation?
And that goes for any US posters in here who feel the need to apply similar sentiments to the Chinese, too. Please try to keep the discussion within the bounds of civility, everyone. Surely you can all see that travelling down this path will only lead to pointless arguments, which add no value to the thread. I understand the topic can naturally cover some pretty sensitive ground, but let's try to avoid inflaming things further.
It's my hope that China and the US can ease tensions between the two nations and reach a more productive form of co-existence somewhere down the road, but in the meantime, can we at least show one another some mutual respect on the forums?
And that goes for any US posters in here who feel the need to apply similar sentiments to the Chinese, too. Please try to keep the discussion within the bounds of civility, everyone. Surely you can all see that travelling down this path will only lead to pointless arguments, which add no value to the thread. I understand the topic can naturally cover some pretty sensitive ground, but let's try to avoid inflaming things further.
It's my hope that China and the US can ease tensions between the two nations and reach a more productive form of co-existence somewhere down the road, but in the meantime, can we at least show one another some mutual respect on the forums?