I think that during the 90s, Russia would have been smarter to fight a war in azerbaijan than in chechnya, they could have used dagestan for launching and resupply, in order to have greater control over the caspain sea oil and gas fields.
As for the present, if russia takes over the rest of georgia and the BTC pipeline, they would have to choose a time when the west is preoccupied, lets say during a severe bout of economic crisis like the one which occured in sep 08. The US and nato allies would be anry, but what could they really do? The US is involved in 2 wars already, they cant really play the moral card, also the West is already dependant on Russia for resources such as oil, gas and Uranium, a boycott would be very painful for them
An invasion would give Russia a big influence over a large part of the remaining hydrocarbon reserves, the US and allies would have to pursue a pipeline in the east through turkmenistan, afghanistan and pakistan
As for the present, if russia takes over the rest of georgia and the BTC pipeline, they would have to choose a time when the west is preoccupied, lets say during a severe bout of economic crisis like the one which occured in sep 08. The US and nato allies would be anry, but what could they really do? The US is involved in 2 wars already, they cant really play the moral card, also the West is already dependant on Russia for resources such as oil, gas and Uranium, a boycott would be very painful for them
An invasion would give Russia a big influence over a large part of the remaining hydrocarbon reserves, the US and allies would have to pursue a pipeline in the east through turkmenistan, afghanistan and pakistan