Will Super Anti Ship Missile change who controls the oceans?

justone

Banned Member
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@justone, do you know that the PRC has over 1500 jet fighter capable airfields within 300km of their coastline? So what's this nonsense about the USN sending a single aircraft carrier to conduct strikes in the world's most complex IAD's? Your concerns are just a little misplaced and overly simplistic, don't you think?

OPSSG You gave me everything but kitchen sink Thanks for the information I think you might misunderstand what Im talking about I did not said a single aircraft carrier I just use term CBG. So why do America put so much on making Aircraft Carriers ? I still think if this missile is tested and works it will change how America approach China.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
OPSSG You gave me everything but kitchen sink Thanks for the information
The kitchen sink is included. You didn't see it? :D

The article by Robert S. Ross quoted in my prior post to you deals with what both parties were trying to communicate about US resolve in that particular Taiwan Straits Crisis. He has covered it more detail than I can or ever intend to for a post - take some time to read it. The blog, 'In from the Cold', and quoted above has a good backgrounder on the carrier killer issue. It's worth the time to read. Cheers and have a nice day.

P.S. Remember to submit your credentials to gf0012-aust, as we take this very seriously.
 
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rip

New Member
last answer

..With that said, I proceed to go a little off-topic below for the benefit of rip.

I hate to tell you this. Anyone who describes or would attempt to describe the collective Chinese leadership in China as irrational has a world view that is very, very, very limited...

...Both countries already have a symbiotic relationship. However, there is a gap in communication and understanding between the two countries. And American analysts have noted that the US can be accurately described as a country that often goes to war without understanding the countries they are at war with (Vietnam and Iraq come to mind). The problem is that a significant percentage of China's younger intelligentsia speak English, while very few American policy makers speak Putong Hua. So where is the gulf of understanding?

...

...It's understandable given that Chinese troops have fought US troops in the past, in different conflicts. But it is equally important to remember that when relations between US and China normalised, the two have stood together against the Soviet empire and its puppet/satellite states. In other words, at one time, the two countries stood together and Nixon basked in the glory of splitting the communist, eastern bloc...

This is off-topic but I hope you are aware that the current Japanese school curriculum (an American ally) is equally deceptive about their imperial past. In World War II, the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) engaged in human experimentation to develop chemical and biological weapons in Manchukuo. In return for IJA data, the US decided not to prosecute those Japanese involved in war crimes against the Chinese in furtherance of US national interest. Does your education system highlight this particular point?

Most importantly, your above point is not relevant to current discussion for two reasons:

(i) the younger generation of Chinese leadership have studied or gone abroad; and​

[Mod Edit: Kindly select the relevant portion of the post you want to comment. I've trimmed your quote of my post, as a sample of how trimming helps readability.]
Mr. OPSSG said that he will not respond to any other comments that might be made and I can respect that. Though I think a continuing correspondence would be highly stimulating this will be my last post on the subject in respect of your wishes. I do not intend to monopolize this board with off topic comments about political conditions and not the military ones it normally pursues but a few things do need further clarification. But in the end, war and the preparations for war, are purely political and that can not be escaped.

Mr. OPSSG made some interesting points many of which I completely agree. Mr. OPSSG I am an old man and have seen many things in my life. I have lived long enough to see things come around again for a second or even third time but people do not seem to get any smarter so if I look sometimes at the worst of possibilities, I am sorry if this upsets you, but it is only so that problems can be avoided by others who don’t see them coming. If prejudices is living life and trying to lean from it, then I admit to this prejudice. But that prejudice is based upon rationalism, if perhaps it is sometimes flawed. A prejudice that is accrued, from second hand sources, based upon easy stereo types or self serving ideas in an irrational one. I try to be a rational human being. I will leave it to you if I have succeeded.

First I did not say that the leadership of china was irrational. If I didn’t say it clearly, what I intended to say was that it comes from a system capable of great irrational actions that cannot rationally be understood by people outside that system.

I will use only two examples of how irrational that system can sometimes be.

After the Parity consolidated its position after the civil war, Charmin Mao went to his brother communist Uncle Jo Stalin, in the then Soviet Union and secretly proposed to him to raze a Chinese Army composed of a thousand army divisions while the Soviet Union provided the arms to equip them. This was to once and for all, bring to a conclusion the great socialist dream of uniting the world under one world government. The Chairman was willing to sacrifice the lives of ten-million Chinese men for a very foreign non-Chinese idea. This is a little know fact that I acquired many years ago through an intelligence source so I am afraid I cannot at this time give a proper open reference though it has been made public several times since but the person who gave me this information was truly impeccable. Uncle Jo said no to this proposal. He said, that now with the existence of nuclear weapons, masses of troops alone, no matter how large a force, could no longer insure victory.

The second example was the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution that followed it. The consequences of which, are still today an official state secret in PRC, like many things in China that would be in other places common knowledge and would never be considered a state secret. True the people who made these decisions are long gone but the system that created them is still in place.​

I must admit that the internal political process, as it currently exists within China today, is very opaque to me and to many others but as long as it is opaque I will continues to be wary of what it can irrationally produce. Whatever you may think of the system my country chooses operates within, it is visible to all. Which to some is considered a weakness, as to others it is considered a strength.

Yes Mr. OPSSG I am aware of the regional differences between the different languages and geographical groups living within China. I am also aware of the even greater suspicion they have for all overseas Chinese much less for white ghosts. The most unifying cultural element among the Chinese peoples has always been their written language of which they hold in great reverence as you well know.

Though I consider myself more of a Li Po type of guy than a follower of Sun Tzu, most of classic Chinese literature, other than its fairytales and philosophic and religious texts, is very dark and filled with plots and schemes designed only to get and to hold power over other men. Perhaps my reading list is limited since most Chinese classical works are hard to find in translation form where I live. But the ones I have read so far, is not what I would hope would be as a unifying theme to guide a great people.

As to understating China I and many others are trying. In fact I have a young friend that is in collage right now and plans to study both Chinese and Japanese as her major. I think it is for the most part a great place and a great people with great things ahead of it. I cannot speak for others, but I was born with a medical condition called dyslexia, languages are very difficult for me and my lack of acquiring another one is not a sigh of western arrogance on my part.

Just look at all my spellings mistakes in the only language that I do know. English will be the language of the world in the future that is a fact. More people speak English as a second language than speak it as their first. Since language belongs to the people who speak it, it is no longer under our control if it ever was.

As to you statement (that CCP governance may be internally weak), that is a surprise to me but I will defer to your superior knowledge in the matter. But it is untimely unimportant, it is what it dose or dose not do, that my country must be deal with. Though if an election were to be held today, even a fare and honest one as rare as they are in the world, the current government would I believe get a resounding endorsement. At least as long as it still produces the rate of economic progress it has in the past.

There are three different kinds of freedom Mr. OPSSG that most people cherish, economic, spiritual, and political. Of these three, economic is by far the most important, then spiritual, and finally political. China has only one and it is as tenuous as all economic progress always is.

There were various references to communications and misunderstanding between our cultures laced within your comments. In my travels about the world it is not uncommon for me to meet people who know more about my country than I know about theirs. Yet when I talk to them about a country next to their own they know less about it than I do? It is a fact of modern communications that everybody thinks they know more about my country than they actually do. When they then talk about how their country is depicted in the international media, they say that the picture they see presented is distorted and unfair and I cannot disagree. The assumption on their part is it is only unfair to them, but they think they are still getting a correct picture of what is going on in other people’s countries when the truth is, the media trades in spectacular events not in clear understating. As in the simple fact that my country has some crazy people in it, and that is for sure. Not all that many are crazy out of a population of over three-hundred million people but you can bet that each one gets his moment on TV and that TV is then broadcast to all over the world. This is not true when operating in reverse.

You mentioned the history of America’s dealings with emigrants, specifically oriental emigrants. Well you make a point I grant you but it an incomplete point. America is still an evolving country, racism is a product of a nature response all life has to life unlike itself and its preference to the like. This is universal to all life forms as the study of Sociobiology will tell you. It is only through the process of education and with the adoption, of guiding moral principles to embrace what we can’t see with just our eye’s that all of us can overcome this barrier to human understanding.

Your assumption is that I have never felt the experience of being discriminated against in my travels in the orient and thus I do not know what it feels like, if so, you would be wrong. But a better question to ask about those immigrants that concern you is after facing their challenges, did they eventual succeed and then join our societies as full productive and equal members? Did their children fulfill the dreams of their parents? And do you think that experience was all that much different from the emigrants coming from other parts of the world? What would be the experience of an emigrant going to China, if it would even be allowed?

As to how I can say that the USA was on Chinas people’s side through most of the history of my country, I take no responsibility before what happened before we took control of our own destiny in 1776, we were the revolutionary in the world then. You think that because we were on the wrong side of the civil war as you put it, you concluded we were not on the Chinese people’s side Well let us see, the KMT was the only recognized government in China at the time to support, as imperfect as it was what choice did we have, if we were to help the Chinese people in anyway. And as mentioned before, did we not make the correct judgment that the revolutionaries was in fact an extension of the International Communist Movement and would pursue the same programs in China that they were famous for. It was not as an indigenous political movement but a very alien un-Chinese idea, this socialism.

Think about it. Why would the USA think that Parity was anything else but an extension of that movement international if you remember what their publicly stated goals were? And was it best for the people of China that the communist’s eventually won over the corrupt KMT? I can not say in the end if it was or if it wasn’t, I am not wise enough to know. But was our policy meant to be in the best interests of the Chinese propel? I think it was. If it was not for the fact that twenty-million Russians died to secure the glorious conclusion of that socialist revolution, I think we have some real reasons to believe it might not be in the best interest of the Chinese people to go follow the same rout. You may say that the internal political decision of the Chinese people was non of our business even after all the time and money we put in to trying to help the Chinese people before and during World War Two and perhaps you would even be right but the nature of the cold war gave us no choice. For it didn’t stop the Soviet Union from picking a side and supplying the Parity. We were not the aggressor in the cold war. I do not think my use of history is as selective as you state.

As to the Japanese school curriculum and the fact of them now being our allies. You are absolutely right about the Japanese unwillingness to confront their past. They wish to cling to the idea that since the USA nuked them at the end of the war, that it then made them the great victims of World War Two and they hold on to that belief even to day and no number of official state apologies to China or to their other victims can make up for not confront their own demons as the Germans did.

Why? Because they do not want to believe that they could become monsters, but if we are honest those capacities lie with all of us, until it is confronted and beaten. For the younger people on this board who are not aware of the facts I will give the numbers, (Between the Mukden Incident in 1931 to Japanese surrender in 1945 one-hundred million Chinese people died because of Japanese aggression). More than the rest of the world suffered collectively in World War Two. Of that one-hundred million people, twenty-six million civilians did not die in the normal consequences of war but died directly by ether over work and starvation in Japanese labor camps, by direct execution (sometimes turned into game) by Japanese troops, and then there was the deliberately introduced diseases in to the civilian population. This statement would be labeled as racist remark by any Japanese readers to this board but it is in fact true. I wish they had the courage to confront their past. It is very well documented past but I am not Japanese and the only way they will confront it is when they are able.

As to the Japanese being our allies? Japan is no longer and never will again be in the business of conquest. After its last experience with it, they have decided to take a different road to prosperity. But they are very afraid of the Chinese people and only slightly less afraid of the Koreans and we all know why, revenge. My country is not very big on revenge. Sometimes we do it, we are just people after a, but we try to put it behind us as soon as we can.

It would seem that at least some of the Chinese people think they didn’t get enough revenge. Look at it from this perspective, we conquered and occupied them totally, striped them of their empire, bombed their cities, destroyed the factories, killed a million and half of them within their home islands, tried 1,800 of them for war crimes and hanged two thirds of those, and made them as poor as mice for a while, what more do you want? And as for turning former enemies into allies, my country is fairly good at that trick. You should try it sometime.

As to your comment “metaphorically, when China takes out a revolver from their pocket, they are willing to use it”. I think that you are confused. I think that statement is a distortion of a very old Vietnamese proverb that goes and I quite, “Give a Chinese man a spear for his birthday and the next day he marches south” unquote. I think you need to take that up with a Vietnamese person maybe he can answer your question.

Now we come to the last factor I will remark upon, Chinese paranoia about the outside world and its own security. It is perfectly understandable why China needs the ability to defend its self. Because it knows what the consequences are if it fails to do so. It needs I think the increased confidence of not needing to depend on ether the morality or the good will of others to secure its own well being. This is a lesion burned into the soul of every Chinese I have met. And it is not very dissimilar to the lesion America learned from Pearl Harbor, to never again to be unprepared for any possible dangers. Dangers perhaps from people, as you put it, “we fully do not understand”. We can see how these two different, yet strangely similar lessons coming from the first half of the last century, are playing out together today in American and Chinese relations.

If the following questions could be answered I would at least feel more at ease. Does the PRC expect to have the ability and thus right to bully its neighbors sometime in the future? I say this because of my experiences in the orient with oriental people while observing their ideas of the acceptable ways of the use of power. If not, they are not communicating that change of approach to its neighbor’s very well and not just to the USA.

Believe it or not everybody wants to be China’s best friend. There are many advantages in being Chinas friend if it dose not come with price of supplication. So what exactly dose China need in the way of military power to feel secure within its own borders, what exactly are those boarders, what arrangements does it need to feel that it can take its proper place in the world? What dose China see as its place in the world when it fulfills its considerable potential? Dose it acknowledges that with increased power comes increased responsibility? The answers to these questions would go along way to making the situation more rational to me.

May God be with you Mr. OPSSG.

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tphuang

Super Moderator
For those who speak Putong Hua, there's a 2010 CCTV 7 analysis on two of Taiwan's jet viz a viz the J-10 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XSq8wBmw_g). The CCTV 7 programme charts and compares along a matrix of factors the capabilities of the Mirage 2000-5, the F-16C/D and the J-10. What surprised me was not that they ranked the J-10 highly (lot's of As) but that they also ranked the F-16C/D highly too with also lot's of As and even an A+ too (and where they gave the F-16C/D a B on it's maneuverability in comparison to Russian designs, they explained that this was not an area of emphasis). Of note is that they also gave the J-10 a B and a A-.
The su-30s are some of the most overrated planes in PLAAF. And you can apply this on the other pre-J-11B flankers in pla. A lot of hype, but abilities are not up there. On the other hand, I think they underrated J-10 in this newscast and they probably should have rated it even higher. Now, I'm saying this because of what I'm about to reply to your following comments.

IMO, China increased her ability to project power but people like Ben Blanchard have said 'China's military bluster camouflages toothless bite'. In Ben Blanchard's article, Lt. Gen. Li Dianren, a professor at the National Defense University was quoted as saying:

"There's no way China can threaten the United States".

Lt. Gen. Li Dianren also adds:

"Anyone with even a bit of common sense knows that our capabilities do not come even close to matching those of the U.S. In terms of economics, technology and the military, the gap is huge. How can we threaten them?"

I listen to what is being said in Hong K
In most Western analysis, I find the Russian equipments in PLA have been over-hyped whereas the local designs haven't got the dues that they deserve. For example, things like Sov (+the magical sunburn missiles), kilo (+ the magical club missiles) + Su-30s are most like white elephants whereas domestic designs have received much greater training, usage and deployment. But China have this deliberate effort in media and in interviews to downplay domestic capabilities. What you read from more informed sources on online sources are different stories. So while I agree with Gen Li's point, but I think he is deliberately understating things. Especially within PLA, where the confidence level is higher and in many cases misled (as in thinking their equipment+training is better than they actually are). So, that's something to be careful about.

Without going into it, I completely disagree with his statement that Chinese economy is not close to matching that of US. And I think PLA is well served if it doesn't get overly ambitious with its plans right now and rely on economic and technological growth to yield better gains in military.

ditto for ASBM. They have NONE, ZERO, ZIP, NADA of any of the companion solutions required to realise an effective weaponised solution.

can they do it, in all likelhood, yes.

is it a carrier killer - hardly, they've go too many other things to resolve and to implement before they even get to the stage of fielding it as a viable, credible weapons solution. (ie track management, target management, companion redundant support systems etc...

this is not the boogyman. considered judgement is what's needed here - not noise and in some circles "hand wringing"
My read on the entire situation is that it's a lot further along than what you are stating here. The entire system is not operational yet, but a lot of the pieces are. And it would be a mistake to just dismiss this threat as another example of overhyped system intended to boost defense budget.

I think one must see this as an overall improvement in PLA rather than one super weapon. For example, things that they require in something like this like OTH radar, improved control in ballistic missile, improved accuracy in ballistic missile, new generation of satellites, HALE UAVs, MPAs and such could be used as part of this system, but have much greater usage too.

They use OTH radar as a way of getting advanced warning of incoming fleet and/or aircraft to the straits. In this specific case, they would use to get a rough general area of where a possible carrier could be. This is already fielded in the appropriate areas as originally identified by the good works of Sean O'Connor.

The possibility to even have a ballistic missile to hit a moving target requires much improvement in the ability to control the ballistic missile. Here is where the technology developed for the ASAT test in 2007 could be adapted to help. Such technology have also been applied to SRBM, surface-to-surface missiles like P12 and guided rocket system like SY-400 and WS-2 that could be used against Taiwan.

Improved accuracy in ballistic missile through software upgrade, Beidou navigation and improved IR seeker and such can also be used to improve accuracy of all forms of ballistic missiles. And when you combine the two, they can presumably have air launched anti-ship ballistic missiles that would have much shorter range compared to a hypothetical DF-21D (more like something in B-611 class) that could simply use aerial assets to provide guidance. Basically, if they can actually have the technology to hit moving target the size of a carrier, that would indicate a lot of other added capabilities.

New generation of satellites is probably the most important part in this since you need to combine OTH radar with ISR satellites to be able to get a rough pinpointed location of a possible carrier group coming in. I talked to Brian Weeden extensively regarding the possibilities of this. So, you would basically need to have satellites be able to get to the approximate area located by OTH radar in a limited time frame to actually ID the carrier and get better location. The satellites must also have the high resolution needed to be able to point its sensors at that location as it comes within the FOV of the satellite. If we just consider the usage of JB-3, they do not have enough satellites to be able to do this. They would need other constellations that they have up to do this. They have launched many YaoGan satellites recently that have the required resolution to be able to ID. Basically, what I'm saying is that with the recently launched satellites + expected launches with the next few years, they have enough satellites that can probably ID the carrier group in a reasonable time frame. Of course, going from having the tools to putting it all together is a different story. And aside from IDing carrier, these satellites obviously have a range of other applications that I don't really need to get into.

In addition, they have a GNSS system that they are putting up in Beidou and newer data relay satellites which will help a ballistic missile to maintain an accurate flight path + getting updated targeting data. And these satellites also have additional military + civilian applications.

The other things to consider are the new generation of UAVs that they have developed recently. Since much of these programs are classified, I'm not up to date on their operational status or their flight performance. They could be used to ID incoming carrier group. Again, that would be something they develop for improved ISR capability in general.

So, I see this as something that is becoming possible as a result of general improvement across the board for PLA. And the systems they develop will have a wide range of applications.

Here is why I think they are closer to achieving it then many people think. When they asked a visiting CMC person about it, he did not deny it, but rather just downplayed the usefulness of it. Normally, when a system is far away from deployment in PLA, they would not acknowledge its existence. On top of that, the sign I'm getting from Chinese sources is that they think it's pretty close. Normally, I put a lot of weight in that, but this is just my opinion in the matter.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

I think it is equally important to understand Zhou Enlai's 5 principles and Deng's strategic thought.

Chinese Views of Future Warfare, Part One

If there is a country that can match or even surpass America's production capability, that will be China. Its only a question of development and tech level.

Whilst the US may over-estimate China's capabilties, China will similarly underplay its capabilities in view of the above. It will also explain why Chinese in China think China is embarking on a peaceful rise whilst the rest of the world view a china threat.

I agree with TPhuang's analysis on China's growing capabilities and ASBM development stage. Most china watchers would have seen the massive growth spurt of China's military capabilities since the '80s. China will never fight a war it does not believe it can win.

Its not just WS-2 but WS-3 now. New tech keep popping up and on a faster and more regular basis. Won't be surprised to see a WS-4 soon.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
My read on the entire situation is that it's a lot further along than what you are stating here. The entire system is not operational yet, but a lot of the pieces are. And it would be a mistake to just dismiss this threat as another example of overhyped system intended to boost defense budget.

I think one must see this as an overall improvement in PLA rather than one super weapon. For example, things that they require in something like this like OTH radar, improved control in ballistic missile, improved accuracy in ballistic missile, new generation of satellites, HALE UAVs, MPAs and such could be used as part of this system, but have much greater usage too.

They use OTH radar as a way of getting advanced warning of incoming fleet and/or aircraft to the straits. In this specific case, they would use to get a rough general area of where a possible carrier could be. This is already fielded in the appropriate areas as originally identified by the good works of Sean O'Connor.

The possibility to even have a ballistic missile to hit a moving target requires much improvement in the ability to control the ballistic missile. Here is where the technology developed for the ASAT test in 2007 could be adapted to help. Such technology have also been applied to SRBM, surface-to-surface missiles like P12 and guided rocket system like SY-400 and WS-2 that could be used against Taiwan.

Improved accuracy in ballistic missile through software upgrade, Beidou navigation and improved IR seeker and such can also be used to improve accuracy of all forms of ballistic missiles. And when you combine the two, they can presumably have air launched anti-ship ballistic missiles that would have much shorter range compared to a hypothetical DF-21D (more like something in B-611 class) that could simply use aerial assets to provide guidance. Basically, if they can actually have the technology to hit moving target the size of a carrier, that would indicate a lot of other added capabilities.

New generation of satellites is probably the most important part in this since you need to combine OTH radar with ISR satellites to be able to get a rough pinpointed location of a possible carrier group coming in. I talked to Brian Weeden extensively regarding the possibilities of this. So, you would basically need to have satellites be able to get to the approximate area located by OTH radar in a limited time frame to actually ID the carrier and get better location. The satellites must also have the high resolution needed to be able to point its sensors at that location as it comes within the FOV of the satellite. If we just consider the usage of JB-3, they do not have enough satellites to be able to do this. They would need other constellations that they have up to do this. They have launched many YaoGan satellites recently that have the required resolution to be able to ID. Basically, what I'm saying is that with the recently launched satellites + expected launches with the next few years, they have enough satellites that can probably ID the carrier group in a reasonable time frame. Of course, going from having the tools to putting it all together is a different story. And aside from IDing carrier, these satellites obviously have a range of other applications that I don't really need to get into.

In addition, they have a GNSS system that they are putting up in Beidou and newer data relay satellites which will help a ballistic missile to maintain an accurate flight path + getting updated targeting data. And these satellites also have additional military + civilian applications.

The other things to consider are the new generation of UAVs that they have developed recently. Since much of these programs are classified, I'm not up to date on their operational status or their flight performance. They could be used to ID incoming carrier group. Again, that would be something they develop for improved ISR capability in general.

So, I see this as something that is becoming possible as a result of general improvement across the board for PLA. And the systems they develop will have a wide range of applications.

Here is why I think they are closer to achieving it then many people think. When they asked a visiting CMC person about it, he did not deny it, but rather just downplayed the usefulness of it. Normally, when a system is far away from deployment in PLA, they would not acknowledge its existence. On top of that, the sign I'm getting from Chinese sources is that they think it's pretty close. Normally, I put a lot of weight in that, but this is just my opinion in the matter.
I am aware of all the things you state, and I continue to stand by my prev. note exactly what I said and in the context of why I said it.

again, can they do it? yes

now? or in a weaponised deliverable theatre relevant state? no
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
I am not quite sure what this will bring to the conversation at this juncture, but the following article is apparently the source of most of the interest in the DF21D this year.

Its an article from the Orbis Magazine published early this year and written by James Kraska a former advisor of Marine policy to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. He writes a fictitious historical account of the policy failings that led to the sinking of the George Washington in 2015 and the consequences on US power of it.

http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5401/kraska.navalwar2015.pdf

Well written and worth taking the time to read.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Well written and worth taking the time to read.
again, I'd add this (even if I have tried to say it obliquely without appearing disrespectful to chinese technological ability and advances in modern weaponry)

most of the claiims made about what china can and can't do have ignored the reality of what technology companion systems they need to actually bring this to effect.

as a one shot solution in a proscribed area and where the USN had had an absolute brain phart and deployed with their ears and supporting systems off, then yes, it could happen.

the reality is very very different.

a little reality needs to be injected into the debate rather than dumbing it down to the art of the possible where all other vectors and warfighting vectors have been turned off to achieve a "red force" outcome.

IMO, from a majority of what I see generated in the public domain, this has been dumbed down so far its not funny.

blue force is not going to wander into a maritime surface theatre event where it has not applied all its other advantages and force elements first.

the capability claims need to be viewed in the vacuum that it ignores the reality of how the US fights, what the US can bring to the table before it sticks TF's in harms way, and what china actually has and what they actually need to make this effective.

I personally find the debate dumbed down to a level where the eagerness to support the claims has priority over the need to pause and actually look at what is needed to elevate it to a near, real world credible threat.

again, I'm aware of all the claims made about what companion systems china has and which some believe are enough to add weight to the argument, but I remain fundamentally unconvinced that it is the case.

this is a from an engineering warfighting perspective - not an idealogical one.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Nevertheless, 2 things should be acknowledged.

1) There a whole host of research being done by China, including publicly published, that's looking into the engineering issues.

2) People actually think its feasible. I doubt if the US naval war college review dumbs down that much...

http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/...-s-Antiship-Ballistic-Missile--Developments-a

I agree that discussions have been focussed on potential capability rather than actual capability.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Nevertheless, 2 things should be acknowledged.

1) There a whole host of research being done by China, including publicly published, that's looking into the engineering issues.
and I'm more than aware of what they are doing, bear in mind the amount of military research that happens also in the US that does not make it into the public domain. correspondingly there are a whole swag of technologies that the US has deliberately pulled from the public domain.

the US is not standing still - and in a number of areas are at least 2 generations ahead of the chinese. does anyone seriously think that they will sit in a technology flux when they identified what china would do after 1991?

2) People actually think its feasible. I doubt if the US naval war college review dumbs down that much...

http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/...-s-Antiship-Ballistic-Missile--Developments-a
I can think of any number of people who actually do this for a living, who actually work in ballistic weapons development, in kinetic energy weapons space who don't subscribe to what others state.

again, I'd point out the deliberate US policy in the late 1980's of overstating Soviet capability because it served a purpose.

china is not 1/20th the capability of the soviets at their peak. lets not attach enthusiasm to the debate and ignore the reality of what everyone else has done, is doing and has active solutions at a far further implementation and development cycle than china has.

The US for example had laser targetting capability to near planet distances in 1969 - they've used lasers for long distance targetting telemetry purposes since 1969. China hasn't even got there yet.

confusing LEO shots on decaying orbits with real time military track, targeting and seeker/sensor co-ord is like comparing a fiat bambina with a corvette. they both demonstrate a capability to build a car. they both have doors, an engine, transmission, wheels etc.. the comparison and capability ends soon after that.



I agree that discussions have been focussed on potential capability rather than actual capability.
a lot of the debate I've seen on this across a number of forums is pitifully deficient. I don't know of anyone who works in this space for a living who is wringing their hands.

more analysis and less hype is needed. that is not meant to detract from the advances the chinese have made - they have done a stirling job to get where they are.

its not the capability that people should be focussing on - its the mindset.
 

moahunter

Banned Member
This is a very interesting topic, but in the real world I wonder what the response to China would be if they did managed to sink a super carrier. I'm thinking it might appear to be a counter productive move to them shortly after.pith
I think that's bang on, its more I guess about being able to show the capability of doing it though.

I don't think the super carriers have been invincible for decades. The USSR had a number of interesting technologies, like the OSCAR subs (firing anti-ship missiles), and the blackjacks carrying anti-ship missiles. We never saw these in action, so will never know for sure, but I think against an opponent with technology, there has always been a risk. This new weapon, if perfected, doesn't change the game or the rules, its just another example of that.

Lets face it, the real power of the supercarriers has never been against "first rate" nations, which china has pretty much become, rather, its a weapon to go around an beat up / bully weaklings like IRAQ, IRAN, North Korea and similar. They will continue to be useful to the US in that role, regardless of their limitations against more challenging opponents (who likely, would never pick a fight anyway). It would be a mistake of the US to waste money trying to make invincible, a mistake that some American politicians in the pocket of military contractors would like to push the US into doing (hence the "panic" over this weapon).
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

It would be a mistake of the US to waste money trying to make invincible, a mistake that some American politicians in the pocket of military contractors would like to push the US into doing (hence the "panic" over this weapon).
Too late. Aegis BMD has been around for a few years now. 21 vessels now and a working ASBM fits nicely to justify more.
 

moahunter

Banned Member
^I think Aegis was more a response to the likes of the Falklands war, where a puny nation like Argentina could pose a real threat with exorcets. That had to be stopped.

That war is quite illustrative still today, it was a very simple matter for the British to sink the Belgrano. I have no doubt the British, if they were at war with the U.S., would have little difficulty using their nuclear submarines to sink a carrier or two. The Russians could have as well even more effectively with the anti-ship focus of their military. Its starting to be acknowledged that the Chinese could as well (not to mention, the ever present nuclear threat).

The more interesting thing with this weapon might be in terms of its ability to be used as a precision land weapon, basically a cruise missile that doesn't have to cruise.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
^I think Aegis was more a response to the likes of the Falklands war, where a puny nation like Argentina could pose a real threat with exorcets. That had to be stopped.

That war is quite illustrative still today, it was a very simple matter for the British to sink the Belgrano. I have no doubt the British, if they were at war with the U.S., would have little difficulty using their nuclear submarines to sink a carrier or two. The Russians could have as well even more effectively with the anti-ship focus of their military. Its starting to be acknowledged that the Chinese could as well (not to mention, the ever present nuclear threat).

The more interesting thing with this weapon might be in terms of its ability to be used as a precision land weapon, basically a cruise missile that doesn't have to cruise.
You might like to think that the Aegis system was a result of RN experiences during the Falklands conflict, but you would also be incorrect. The Aegis programme started in the early to mid-70's, well before the 1982 Falkland conflict. If you look back, many non-wartime military programme take a decade or more between program start and IOC. In the case of the Aegis system, the first Aegis-equipped vessel, USS Ticonderoga (CG47) was commissioned Jan. 22nd 1983, seven months after the end of the Falklands conflict. Given the amount of time design, re-design, construction, launching and comissioning take, there would have been insufficient time for any post-Falklands RN input to have been made.

As for suggestions on the supposed ease to sink a USN carrier with a submarine, I would suggest going back and re-reading some of the information here on DT and elsewhere about how a CBG is arranged and operates. While the RN submarine if good, and could certainly manage to sink a carrier, it would by no means be a certain or easy thing. For starters, there are typically one or two USN SSN's shadowing a CBG, specifically to locate and neutralize hostile subs.

While it is quite true that a carrier and accompanying CBG is not 'invincible' they are not easy targets. The typical USN carrier air group has a greater EW, interceptor and strike capability than the air forces of most nations, and that is from a single CBG. A carrier will typically have 30-40 fighters, but if the situation requires, can operate nearly twice that number of fighters. Additionally, there will be between four to six E-2 Hawkeye AWACS to provide continous standoff detection of airborne and surface threats, plus additional aircraft for SAR, transport, lift and other roles.

Lastly, I could be mistaken, but I believe that your understanding of the targets for Soviet Naval Aviation and submarines was not USN carriers. My understanding was that the primary target in the event of war was going to be the merchant shipping from the US/North America to Europe, and that the USN carriers and escorts were to be a screening force for the merchant convoys which would be transporting troops and war materials to reinforce NATO in Europe.

-Cheers
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Had the impression that the first Aegis equipped warship was the USS Norton Sound in '73.

Lastly, I could be mistaken, but I believe that your understanding of the targets for Soviet Naval Aviation and submarines was not USN carriers. My understanding was that the primary target in the event of war was going to be the merchant shipping from the US/North America to Europe, and that the USN carriers and escorts were to be a screening force for the merchant convoys which would be transporting troops and war materials to reinforce NATO in Europe.
As for the above, Soviet Naval Aviation had a very clear anti-carrier role.

http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA167795

"SNA's primary role was to defend the Soviet Union against US carrier attacks"
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj90/sum90/5sum90.htm
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Aegis programme started in the early to mid-70's, well before the 1982 Falkland conflict.
You could probably take it all the way back to the early 60's when the USN first fielded planar arrays on the Enterprise - basically this is where the CONOPs for AEGIS started its gestation. It was a rotten system, but its intent was established and mueled.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Had the impression that the first Aegis equipped warship was the USS Norton Sound in '73.
The USS Norton Sound was a 30 year old test ship for the Aegis system, as such, it would be a bit of a stretch at that point to call it a warship. Particularly since the USS Norton Sound had been previously refitted at various points to serve as a test platform for launching the Sea Sparrow SAM, as well as the Typhoon and ASMS (Advanced Surface Missile System) projects, the two immediate precursors to the Aegis system.

As for the above, Soviet Naval Aviation had a very clear anti-carrier role.

Soviet Naval Aviation: Its Changing Roles.

"SNA's primary role was to defend the Soviet Union against US carrier attacks"
The Transformation of Soviet Maritime Air Operations
No argument that Soviet Naval Aviation has an anti-CBG role. However, one must keep in mind what the carriers themselves would have benn used for. If there had been an event where there was a major conventional landware between NATO and Soviet/WarPac forces during the 60's, 70's or 80's, the carriers and associated escorts would themselves have been taked with keeping the SLOC between the US and Europe open, to allow the US to reinforce Euope. The US had (at least during the 80's) such a grave concern about the ability to reinforce West Germany in the event of a Soviet/WarPac attack that there were annual exercises using Army Reserve & National Guard units called ReForGer for ReinForce Germany, and the US started to preposition entire unit formations of munitions and vehicles. The idea was that if the US needed to activate Army Reserve or National Guard units, instead of needing to ship the trucks, tanks, artillery, etc that the unit was equipped with over to Germany along with the troops, the troops could be flown over via airliner, and activate the TO&E specified vehicles from stockpiles already in Germany.

-Cheers
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Notwithstanding it was used as a test ship, the official designation of the Norton Sound in the naval register which I just checked was still "guided missile ship" which pretty much classified it as a warship.

Agree with gf that scanfar was the pre-cursor or formed the tech basis for aegis. Most people don't refer to it as "aegis" cos the latter is associated with the SPY-1 radar but its just nomenclature.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
You could probably take it all the way back to the early 60's when the USN first fielded planar arrays on the Enterprise - basically this is where the CONOPs for AEGIS started its gestation. It was a rotten system, but its intent was established and mueled.
Funny that, I was reading about this today, she was the first Nuclear powered carrier, a modified version of the Forestall class and was very distinguishable due to the Island's lack of exhaust stacks and the inclusion of the twin element PLANAR, here is the link
CVN65 - Enterprise Class Aircraft Carrier
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
2) People actually think its feasible. I doubt if the US naval war college review dumbs down that much...

http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/...-s-Antiship-Ballistic-Missile--Developments-a

I agree that discussions have been focussed on potential capability rather than actual capability.
They don't dumb it down. They don't disregard the very real problems that such a solution would have to overcome to be a legitimate weapon system either.

Unfortunately FAR too many on these sorts of forums do...
 
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