Venezuela Update

[swerve]

One patrol vessel with a 30mm gun is a threat to Venezuela . . . . that's comical. Maduro is saying that the Venezuelan armed forces are the most incompetent & ineffectual in the world.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

One patrol vessel with a 30mm gun is a threat to Venezuela . . . . that's comical. Maduro is saying that the Venezuelan armed forces are the most incompetent & ineffectual in the world.

Don't forget that the HMS Trent P224 also has two riggid hull inflatable boats on board, which they undoubtly will use to invade Venezuela. Combined with the enormous amount of heavy offensive armament this warship possess, the HMS Trent is absolutely a direct threat to the existence of Venezuela.

 

[StobieWan]

One patrol vessel with a 30mm gun is a threat to Venezuela . . . . that's comical. Maduro is saying that the Venezuelan armed forces are the most incompetent & ineffectual in the world.

Unless she makes port and they go for a run ashore, in which case the bars will be on their ends and women of easily negotiable virtue will be being used as defensive aids.

Honestly. you'd think they'd not make so much of a fuss.

 

[Feanor]

One patrol vessel with a 30mm gun is a threat to Venezuela . . . . that's comical. Maduro is saying that the Venezuelan armed forces are the most incompetent & ineffectual in the world.

I suspect he understands the political significance of the gesture and that's what he's referring to. Let's say for argument's sake that Venezuela can sink that patrol vessel with minimal effort. This is likely to be true given their Su-30MKV fleet but of course whether they purchased the necessary missiles, trained for maritime strike, and have them in working order is a question. What would be the effect of Venezuela sinking this ship? That's the threat. And let's not forget, while there has been much grandstanding and demand-making, Venezuela doesn't appear to actually be moving on the territory. So making a mountain out of a molehill by reacting dramatically to the presence of a patrol ship would be completely logical. The purpose isn't to really provide the public with an assessment of the situation. The purpose is to make noise about it. Noise has been made, the purpose has presumably been achieved (though of course that depends on internal reaction, I'm not up to speed on Venezuela domestic politics).

 

[Rob c]

HMS Trent is a symbolic show of support for Guyana without any threat being shown towards Venezuela, I think a clever move, however should Venezuela show any aggressions towards the Trent, when it is going about its lawful duties, that changes everything as it brings the UK into play and I think that the Venezuelan government would know this, hence the over the top rhetoric, which is most probably aimed at the domestic audience.
Should the Venezuelan Navy show up in any disputed area and HMS Tent also shows up it will make life difficult politically for the Venezuelans.

 

[Todjaeger]

HMS Trent is a symbolic show of support for Guyana without any threat being shown towards Venezuela, I think a clever move, however should Venezuela show any aggressions towards the Trent, when it is going about its lawful duties, that changes everything as it brings the UK into play and I think that the Venezuelan government would know this, hence the over the top rhetoric, which is most probably aimed at the domestic audience.
Should the Venezuelan Navy show up in any disputed area and HMS Tent also shows up it will make life difficult politically for the Venezuelans.

I agree that the noise (hubris might be more accurate) from Venezuela is for domestic consumption. Aside from the combat capabilities of Batch 2 River-class OPV's, what is coming from the Maduro gov't also ignores that the fact the RN and/or RFA has had vessels deployed to the Caribbean conducting patrols to reassure Commonwealth nations and British Overseas Territories in the region for years.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Over the years Russia has provided Venezuela with Buk-M2E and S-300VM Air Defence Systems. It has also delivered 24 Su-30MK2 multirole fighters to the country. And according to these articles, Russia has recently delivered some Pantsir S-1 systems with an Il-76 (RA-78765), but no official statements from Venezuela, or photos and video footages can proof this claim yet.

«Американцев ждут сюрпризы»: в Госдуме рассказали, как Россия может помочь Венесуэле - Газета.Ru | Новости

Moscow Just Gave Venezuela Air Defenses, Not Ruling Out Strike Missiles: Russian Official

 

[crest]

Looks like they had the Stockdale 50 kms of the Venezuelan coast. Unnecessarily risky in the drone age if you ask me. Also does anyone one know what additional capabilities come into play for the Stockdale at that range? Or was it just a floating middle finger incase somehow Venezuela wasn't aware they may have a problem

Tomahawk-Armed U.S. Navy Destroyer and Guided-Missile Cruiser Operate Close to Venezuela’s Coast

USS Stockdale and USS Gettysburg patrol inside Venezuela’s EEZ as Operation Southern Spear begins, putting Tomahawk armed US warships close to Caracas.

armyrecognition.com

Edit. I am aware ofcourse it's not actually that risky as Venezuela is unlikely to want to kick this thing off. But still unnecessary especially considering if anything does happen to a u.s ship a ground war is probably guaranteed. And that well that could prove to be Ike haveing anal cancer for the u.s military

 

[Feanor]

Looks like they had the Stockdale 50 kms of the Venezuelan coast. Unnecessarily risky in the drone age if you ask me. Also does anyone one know what additional capabilities come into play for the Stockdale at that range? Or was it just a floating middle finger incase somehow Venezuela wasn't aware they may have a problem

Tomahawk-Armed U.S. Navy Destroyer and Guided-Missile Cruiser Operate Close to Venezuela’s Coast

USS Stockdale and USS Gettysburg patrol inside Venezuela’s EEZ as Operation Southern Spear begins, putting Tomahawk armed US warships close to Caracas.

armyrecognition.com

In theory, the closer you are the further into Venezuela you can see. This is especially relevant for low altitude objects that could be below the radio-horizon from further out. Of course an AEW aircraft would be a better option.

 

[crest]

In theory, the closer you are the further into Venezuela you can see. This is especially relevant for low altitude objects that could be below the radio-horizon from further out. Of course an AEW aircraft would be a better option.

That's what the was thinking only other thing I can think is perhaps some kind of underwater survey of the coast for landing craft? But I have no idea if that can be done at that range. I also suspect it can be done with air assets if not satellite

Edit
I guess any survey range would depend on slope. Or perhaps it's able to pick up some transmissions not otherwise easily done. Maby even triangulation for target identification? It should get a stronger signal for longer then a flight?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Based on 2 assumptions on Trumpy policy:

1. Renegotiate everything (that's due for update).
2. Emphasize raw materials.

I'm going to say the US is posturing and wants a trade deal and not a war for regime change. That might come if a deal cannot be struck on sufficiently favorable terms.

 

[FormerDirtDart]

Based on 2 assumptions on Trumpy policy:

1. Renegotiate everything (that's due for update).
2. Emphasize raw materials.

I'm going to say the US is posturing and wants a trade deal and not a war for regime change. That might come if a deal cannot be struck on sufficiently favorable terms.

Yes, Trump clearly wants a return to US corps 20th century oil rights. But he also very much wants Maduro out. And the former has little if any chance of being achieved without the latter

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Yes, Trump clearly wants a return to US corps 20th century oil rights. But he also very much wants Maduro out. And the former has little if any chance of being achieved without the latter

From a military POV it's best to do it fast and painless.
Taking the time means the US has some non-zero confidence in a diplomatic solution.

For what it's worth, I think pursuing raw materials including oil is the right move. The US is undergoing some negative processes right now. This could be a much needed economic boost.

 

[crest]

From a military POV it's best to do it fast and painless.
Taking the time means the US has some non-zero confidence in a diplomatic solution.

For what it's worth, I think pursuing raw materials including oil is the right move. The US is undergoing some negative processes right now. This could be a much needed economic boost.

Well after four months of obvious intent. I think doing it fast is kinda out the window. Not trying to undersell what the u.s military is capable of here just pointing out there has been plenty of time for the defender to organize and plan

 

[koxinga]

At this point, speculating on his motivations is somewhat a moot point.

Question will be how far he will go and how it will end. US force build up continues in Puerto Rico and secondary sides in Trinidad. It seems we are headed towards something if Maduro does not move aside.

 

[swerve]

From a military POV it's best to do it fast and painless.
Taking the time means the US has some non-zero confidence in a diplomatic solution.

For what it's worth, I think pursuing raw materials including oil is the right move. The US is undergoing some negative processes right now. This could be a much needed economic boost.

Doh!

It'll be the exact opposite of an economic boost. THINK!

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Doh!

It'll be the exact opposite of an economic boost. THINK!

Raw materials are an economic nightmare for socialist and undeveloped economies. But they are a major boost for developed industrious economies.

 

[swerve]

You don't get it. Destabilising the world even more would cause great economic disruption. The world economy works best with peace, stability & unfettered trade.

 

[Feanor]

Doh!

It'll be the exact opposite of an economic boost. THINK!

Economic boost for some, surely. The "reconstruction" of Iraq made some very wealthy. They got an economic "boost". Cui bono?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

You don't get it. Destabilising the world even more would cause great economic disruption. The world economy works best with peace, stability & unfettered trade.

So just about any conflict is destabilization, and any destabilization = every destabilization?

Venezuela is already a failed state under sanctions and, even worse, communism.
Nothing really would destabilize anything there. Nor would anyone feel anything.
There'll be more capital flowing on polymarket bets than what's risked here.

Markets don't like war but they also don't like incompetent man-children cosplayers running things they can't handle.

Worst case it hurts its biggest buyer - China.