The PRC hold liens on the Venezuelan oil industry because of the loans that the Maduros govt have taken out with them. So they'll be supplying the equipment, but they keep ownership of it and the oil.
Venezuela Update
- Thread starter Feanor
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The manner in which they've chosen to do this, through Iran, is interesting. And it highlights some interesting relationships. It will be interesting to watch how Venezuela adapts to it's increasing isolation, and how well they can build ties with other outside players to resolve some of the problems they already do and will inevitably face.
Yes the Iranian involvement is interesting, and if nothing else it will wind the US up, so it's probably worth it from the 4 parties just for that. The US see the Americas as their own fiefdom, for want of a better term, and they will not be impressed at all.
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- #84
Some footage of the Iranian tankers that arrived in Venezuela. A total of 5 showed up.
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
There is also some information that Iran sent humanitarian aid.
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Iran also appears to be assisting Venezuela with repairing their C-130s. Iran has a long history of keeping US hardware flying despite lack of supplies from the US.
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Iran certainly can't match Russian or Chinese support for Venezuela, but they do have experience in turning irregular structures into effective fighting forces, and this could play out in complex ways, as Venezuela has a huge militia force.
Иранский танкер прибыл в Венесуэлу
Венесуэльские рыбаки поднимают флаг Ирана. Первый иранский танкер прошел в Венесуэлу - после захода в территориальные воды Венесуэлы, он был взят под охрану венесуэльскими кораблями. США так и не решились на него напасть, после озвученных угроз из Ирана. Перед проходом через район, где под…
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Первый из иранских танкеров с грузом топлива достиг венесуэльских вод
Танкер Fortune - первый из идущих пяти иранских танкеров с грузами бензина и алкилата для страдающей от сильнейшего топливного дефицита Венесулы пересек Атлантику и достиг венесуэльских вод. По приказу президента Венесуэлы Николаса Мадуро, при приближении к венесуэльским водам иранские танкеры…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Второй иранский танкер дошел до венесуэльских вод
Иранский танкер Forest с грузом бензина для Венесуэлы сопровождается венесуэльскими патрульным кораблем Yekuana (PO-13) тип Guaiquer (проект Avante 2200) и истребителями Cу-30 и F-16. Вообще, насколько сейчас известно, из пяти иранских танкеров отправленных из Ирана в Венесуэлу, три -…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Третий иранский танкер дошел до венесуэльских вод
Танкер Petunia - третий из пяти иранских танкеров с бензином и алкилатом для страдающей от сильнейшего топливного дефицита Венесулы пересек Атлантику и достиг венесуэльских вод и был встречен венесуэльским патрульным кораблем. Тем временем с помощью Ирана венесуэльские нефтеперерабатывающие…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Четвертый иранский танкер с топливом пришел в Венесуэлу
28 мая иранский танкер Faxon в сопровождении патрульного корабля Guaiquer (PO-11) ВМС Венесуэлы фотографии от https://twitter.com/ArmadaFANB/status/1266065998878310406 Прибытие танкера Faxon в венесуэльский порт назначения от https://twitter.com/GNB_Anzoategui/status/1266183696605945856
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Вот и пятый иранский танкер достиг венесуэльских вод
Иранский танкер Clavel после пересечения Атлантики был взят под сопровождение венесуэльским патрульным кораблем. Это на данный момент последний из отправленных из Ирана танкеров с грузами топлива для Венесуэлы. Доставленных бензина и алкилата для производства бензина должно хватить на первое время…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
There is also some information that Iran sent humanitarian aid.
Прибытие гуманитарной помощи из Ирана в Венесуэлу
Иран продолжает помогать Венесуэле. Каракас, 9 июня (Пренса Латина) Венесуэла получила груз гуманитарной помощи из Ирана, чтобы помочь в борьбе с пандемией Covid-19 в южноамериканской стране, сообщил вице-президент по планированию Рикардо Менендес. В международном аэропорту Симона Боливара в…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Iran also appears to be assisting Venezuela with repairing their C-130s. Iran has a long history of keeping US hardware flying despite lack of supplies from the US.
Иран похоже помогает ремонтировать венесуэльские C-130
В венесуэльских оппозиционных источниках мелькали слухи , что с 2019 г. порядка 60 иранских технических специалистов осуществляют программу по восстановлению двух венесуэльских военно-транспортных самолетов C-130H, которые много лет ожидали ремонта, но каких-либо подтверждений этого до недавних пор…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Iran certainly can't match Russian or Chinese support for Venezuela, but they do have experience in turning irregular structures into effective fighting forces, and this could play out in complex ways, as Venezuela has a huge militia force.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Venezuela acting extremely sus right now.
It's all a show designed to distract Venezuelans from their own internal troubles. The present day Venezuelan Armed Forces is incapable of projecting power beyond their borders. Now, I admit that lack of evidence does not necessarily indicate lack of capability, but for a few years I have noticed that there are zero patrols by Venezuelan Navy's large ships, zero flights of Venezuelan combat aircrafts, and zero news of training exercises.
The Venezuelan Armed Forces on paper remains at full strength, but I don't actually think that they are combat capable because I can't see where the supplies are coming from. No rubber seals for aircraft means the aircraft doesn't fly. No diesel engine parts mean the ships can't sail. And while there are still plenty of soldiers with guns, they are more interested in securing the traditional gold mines rather because that gets them gold which they can use to buy supplies with.
The Venezuelan Armed Forces on paper remains at full strength, but I don't actually think that they are combat capable because I can't see where the supplies are coming from. No rubber seals for aircraft means the aircraft doesn't fly. No diesel engine parts mean the ships can't sail. And while there are still plenty of soldiers with guns, they are more interested in securing the traditional gold mines rather because that gets them gold which they can use to buy supplies with.
Venezuelans have voted overwhelmingly in favor of claiming a significant part of neighboring Guyana.
More than 95% approved establishing a new state in Essequibo, according to officials. Essequibo: Venezuelans vote to claim Guyana-controlled oil region - BBC News
Although it seems highly unlikely that Venezuela would invade, perhaps one should not dismiss the idea completely. Venezuela has close links to Russia, and have had Russian soldiers in country for some years. Russia is providing military assistance to Venezuela however says this will not be used to attack Colombia "nor any country in Latin America". Well, I think we all know the value of such "guarantees" from Russia. Russia says military aid to Venezuela will not be used to attack Colombia | Reuters
In addition to Russia, Venezuela has also developed a strategic partnership with Iran. Iran and Venezuela: A Strategic Partnership - Diálogo Américas (dialogo-americas.com)
And finally China is also elevating it's ties with Venezuela to an "all-weather, strategical partnership" -- officially focusing on cooperation in agriculture, investment, education, and tourism, however also "safeguard multilateralism and the legitimate interests of developing countries" -- which no doubt in the eyes of China and Venezuela will be seen to include things like annexation of Taiwan and Essequibo. Xi, Maduro announce elevation of China-Venezuela ties - China Military
Russia, China and Iran will all clearly benefit from increased tension in the region, and I am sure would be more than happy to provide various types of support to Venezuela, should they ask for it.
I wonder what Brazil makes of this. They are traditionally not very aligned with the US, but this is also in their backyard, and it's difficult to see how they can be fine with potential malignant influence from players like Iran, Russia and China, even if Brazil wants to be on good terms with all 3.
More than 95% approved establishing a new state in Essequibo, according to officials. Essequibo: Venezuelans vote to claim Guyana-controlled oil region - BBC News
Although it seems highly unlikely that Venezuela would invade, perhaps one should not dismiss the idea completely. Venezuela has close links to Russia, and have had Russian soldiers in country for some years. Russia is providing military assistance to Venezuela however says this will not be used to attack Colombia "nor any country in Latin America". Well, I think we all know the value of such "guarantees" from Russia. Russia says military aid to Venezuela will not be used to attack Colombia | Reuters
In addition to Russia, Venezuela has also developed a strategic partnership with Iran. Iran and Venezuela: A Strategic Partnership - Diálogo Américas (dialogo-americas.com)
And finally China is also elevating it's ties with Venezuela to an "all-weather, strategical partnership" -- officially focusing on cooperation in agriculture, investment, education, and tourism, however also "safeguard multilateralism and the legitimate interests of developing countries" -- which no doubt in the eyes of China and Venezuela will be seen to include things like annexation of Taiwan and Essequibo. Xi, Maduro announce elevation of China-Venezuela ties - China Military
Russia, China and Iran will all clearly benefit from increased tension in the region, and I am sure would be more than happy to provide various types of support to Venezuela, should they ask for it.
I wonder what Brazil makes of this. They are traditionally not very aligned with the US, but this is also in their backyard, and it's difficult to see how they can be fine with potential malignant influence from players like Iran, Russia and China, even if Brazil wants to be on good terms with all 3.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
"Voted".
I know nothing about the South American arena, but this whole situation sounds a bit too uncomfortable for Venezuela. I mean, let's consider for a second that Venezuela is perfectly capable of militarily taking Essequibo. In light of fairly recent mass unrest, is Venezuela really going to bet its stability and possibly Maduro's life, on complete non-intervention from other nations?
1. Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait
2. Argentina invaded the Falklands
3. Russia invaded Ukraine
All 3 invasions at great costs to the invaders, and whereas the outcome of the last is still up in the air, the first two failed miserably, as one could have predicted. Still it did not prevent them from trying. Unlike Iraq and Argentina, Venezuela can probably rely on support from Iran, Russia and (covertly) China. I think all 3 countries would be more than happy to stir some trouble in South America to deflect US attention and resources from ME, Ukraine, and SEA.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Guyana Defence Force - Wikipedia
With 4000 active and 3000 reserves Defence personnel and nearly as many Rifle types, I doubt Guyana could do much militarily about a Venezuelan invasion.
With 4000 active and 3000 reserves Defence personnel and nearly as many Rifle types, I doubt Guyana could do much militarily about a Venezuelan invasion.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
They only really need to make Venezuela realize it's going to be a fight, and not a 3 days to Kyiv type of scenario.
That's where a rapid deployment force from a friendly power would make a difference. Purely defensive but a clear message of automatic escalation.
If Venezuela can actually send their armed forces to Guyana, yes, Guyana can't really fight them. But that's the thing. Venezuela can't. The conventional way, sending a hundred thousand soldiers across the border until they reach the capital, is not doable here because there are hundreds of miles of tropical jungle along the way. There are no roads anywhere near the border, both on the Venezuelan side and Guyanan side. Presumably they can just send soldiers a few miles in across the border and then declare victory, but realistically Guyana doesn't care about that sort of symbolic victory (or rather, can't afford to care). They'll just ignore any such declaration and eventually the Venezuelan soldiers will have to pack up and go home, because Venezuela won't be able to keep them supplied in the jungle.
Another possibility is for Venezuela to launch a seaborne invasion straight into Georgetown (Guyana's capital) and then try to force the government there to capitulate. In that case, they'll need enough landing ships to carry a few thousand soldiers and their equipment and enough combat-capable ships as escorts. Now, I have strong doubts that their ships are sea-worthy at the moment. Long years of lack of supplies and spare parts will have taken their toll. But let's say they manage to scrounge up the supplies and organize a naval battle group. In that case people will notice them sailing, the Guyanan government will be informed, and they can just flee inland for a while. Because Venezuela won't be able to keep that naval group supplied. After a few weeks they'll have to pack up and leave.
And this is assuming that other countries aren't intervening on Guyana's behalf. Brazil, the US, the UK, France, to name a few.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Is A New Oil Price War Looming? | OilPrice.com
Record-breaking U.S. oil production is putting pressure on the OPEC+ group, with dissent within the alliance raising the specter of another oil price war.
oilprice.com
This is something also that can potentially come to equation. Oil Price equation. Market seems rather in precarious balance between over supply and less demand. In the meantime OPEC+ seems not come to agreement on cutting supply, as some see this only benefits US suppliers that presently pumping more oil.
Saudi so far take much brunt on oil cuts, while Venezuela see Brazil and Guyana reaping oil price momentum. Venezuela it self even has lot off oil, but facing problem on production due to aging infrastructure.
Maduro can use this as diversions to his problematic economy. However creating some tensions between oil producers can also increase the prices or at least hold downturn prices momentum. For a nation that facing production problems but very dependent to keep uptrend momentum on oil price, this can be some benefits for Venezuela coffers.
Aging infrastructure, lack of investment or even maintenance, loss of skilled staff (due to not being paid, incompetent political appointees being appointed to manage skilled & experienced workers, etc.) . . . .
The Venezuelan oil industry has suffered from governments starving their golden goose & then wondering why it's not laying many eggs. Could be worse, though: under Mobutu, Congo's golden geese were killed & eaten. A lot of state-owned mines completely collapsed because managers who'd had to pay for their jobs stole the workers pay (so the workers gave up) & sold the machinery. I don't think Venezuela's quite that bad.
Why would they want to reach the capital? Venezuela has defined the region they want. True there is a lot of jungle but I imagine they would send troops to key strategic points along the "border" between Essequibo and the rest of Guyana. Once they have defined their "border" and put troops at "border crossings", they are done (assuming the US or Brazil don't intervene). They will probably struggle to control the whole border in particular where there is nothing but jungle, but Guyana will not be able to launch a counterattack through the same jungle so perhaps not a big worry for Venezuela?
How important is that plot of land to the US, compared to what's happening in the ME, Ukraine and SEA? The US voters are sick and tired of becoming dragged into wars that gets American soldiers killed. Becoming involved in another war is probably not a great way to win elections. A president like Trump no doubt would pull out anyways... And will Brazil, who is trying really hard to be friendly with Venezuela, send their soldiers in to be killed in the jungle in a war against Venezuela? I doubt it -- I think Brazil will send troops to guard the Brazilian border, and then aim to "negotiate" between the two parties.
Deterrence however might work. If the US could send forces to Guyana before a potential attack has happened, it may make Venezuela think twice about invading in the first place. Venezuelan army is not very strong, so it should not take many US forces to strongly reduce the risk of an invasion.
I don't think it's realistic that the UK or France would intervene. Their military resources are quite limited these days, and with the all unrest elsewhere in the world I think both the UK and France would prefer to stay out of it. Would the UK be able to fight off Venezuela and at the same time retain enough forces to meet their homeland defence and NATO requirements, in addition to their planned pivot to SEA, commitments in the ME, Falklands, and elsewhere? France have commitments in Africa, the ME, and are also pivoting towards SEA, in addition to homeland defence and NATO commitments.
Perhaps possible that Cuba, Russia (perhaps through "private" groups like "Wagner" operated in Africa and ME) could be willing to assist Venezuela with boots on the ground, in return for access to some of the resources in Essequibo. And Iran would probably be willing to support Venezuela with missiles, drones, etc. China for sure could provide significant, non-military assistance to Venezuela.
The Netherlands, maybe.
The only way for them to get troops to most of that "border" is by helicopters or up the river Essequibo, & those are the only ways they could be supplied. A very, very small intervention force could isolate them, & then collect the starving "border guards" after a little while.
There's a road in the central part, but it runs from Brazil to Georgetown. The northern section is on the east bank of the Essequibo. There's no connection either by road or water to Venezuela.
The Venezuelan road to Brazil touches the border with Guyana at Kilometro Ochenta y Dos (according to Guyanan maps it actually crosses the border). but east of there is trackless waste, mostly densely forested.
And I'm not sure that "trying really hard to be friendly with Venezuela" would extend to an invasion which added 1000 km to Brazil's border with Venezuela. Brazil already has problems with cross-border criminality from Venezuela. That part of Brazil's much more developed than the areas across the border (Boa Vista has 400,000 people), & the thought of having Venezuela on three sides of it might make the Brazilians rather uncomfortable.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Yes.
Not per se. Can they not take the underwater route? If less funded groups like Hamas and Hezbollah can set up their own diving capabilities, surely Venezuela with Iran's help can set up something. I don't think we should rule out an undetected approach to Georgetown's beach.
I agree with @Vivendi here. While @Big_Zucchini and @tonnyc is correct that a military invasion of Georgetown is a real possibility, it would be an extremely provocative move to achieve the aims of the referendum and would heighten the possibility of external intervention. They can achieve the same aims with lower risks by taking over the border crossing with limited bloodshed and filtering their forces in.
@tonnyc , might be reasonable to assume that some Venezuela's landing ship tanks are operational. It not be enough to send thousands of troops, but their spearhead will be División de Infantería de Marina General Simón Bolívao or the Venezuelan Bolivarian Marine Corps. They are very well equipped (in that part of the world) for the job, having acquired VN-1, VN-16, and VN-18 amphib assault gun/APC in recent years along with the surviving LTVP-7s. With that kit, they could land with little resistance.