United States Defense Thread

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
This article explains why so many US voters still think that Trump has won the election and are being stubborn about it.


A Foreign Policy article about American exceptionalism and why it can't beat COVID-19. It has paragraph in it which is very important to this discussion and I've quoted it in part.

"... the United States has natural disasters. But the regular exceptions are limited and regionally specific: floods in New Orleans, tornadoes in the Midwest. They’re also much more visible than the pandemic; nobody can disagree with the existence of a hurricane. Throw into the difficulty of accepting an invisible foe the paranoid history of American conspiratorialism, [see Hofstader story below], and you end up with a nation dotted with denialists. Being denied a high school party or a Thanksgiving get-together has become defined for tens of millions of Americans as an act of government oppression, not a necessary sacrifice. (In contrast, Chinese sacrificed the single-most important family event of the year, the Spring Festival, entirely.)"


But it's not a new thing either with this article from the November, 1964 issue of Vanity Fair that explains the US voter and conspiracy theories. It's quite enlightening.


So we can see that when we link all three articles, the current phenomena of Trump supporters not accepting the election result is nothing new as far as the US is concerned.
Yes, although I think the Republicans deserve credit for reinventing their messaging apparatus. During the Bush years it seemed like Fox News was essentially the only source of consistently pro-admin information out there. Nowadays the Trump admin has a sizable group of loyal mouthpieces and supporters across YouTube and social media, all of whom appear dedicated to the stolen election narrative. The echo chamber effect of today's online landscape can only be helping to reinforce the narrative among Trump's base.

As an outsider looking in, the whole saga is disturbing to watch no matter where the truth lies.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I am a big fan of comedian Bill Maher and he is certainly anti-Trump (anti religion as well). His last episode this season had a couple of interesting segments. Both relate to addressing the 70 million plus Republican voters. Basically he said beating them down would be counter productive and they should be treated as victims of a cult. The approach should be similar to Catherine Oxenberg’s rescue of her daughter from a cult. The other segment mentions that Rupert Murdoch may be the only person that can restore America back to normalcy. He may be belatedly concerned on America’s decent into chaos but the other factor could be the rising influence of super right wing media competition. Either way, if he acts fast enough, he may continue to control a more moderate right wing and prevent a loss of Fox’s grip on the market. Trump is almost certain to invest in one of these outlets and will have his own daily show of political vomit once he leaves office.
 

ngatimozart

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After reading these articles, as a Canadian, the idea of having an Australian-NZ ditch between Canada and the US is starting to look very attractive. I really don’t see how the US can dig itself out of its current mess, especially with a rising China and a declining American manufacturing base.
Best you get them ditch diggers and dozers out. Unfortunately I think it's gonna get worse before it gets better and you also have to remember they celebrate thanksgiving this week and that remembers the safe arrival of the Puritans, a religious sect banned in its home country because of its extreme views. When the Lord Protector Cromwell found their religious views to be too conservative and extreme, that says something because he was pretty fundamentalist himself. And that Puritan fundamentalism is still prevalent in American politics and society today.
 

OPSSG

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Trump being destructive — Part 6

21. As more and more Republicans start congratulating Biden or deserting Trump, the road to transition has been opened. On 24 Nov 2020, Trump concedes to Biden and below is what he announced on Twitter:

“I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA. Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good fight, and I believe we will prevail! Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same.”​

22. Strangely, as the Biden transition team begins work with the DoD, I am overwhelmed by a sense of sadness for America — with the prospect of a forthcoming Obama 2.0 redux (along with its failed policies for Asia).

23. Trump’s foreign policy has damaged the United States’ ability to address problems before they reach U.S. territory, compounding the danger emergent threats pose, argue former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. That a serving President of America can be a man that is so vindictive to Esper (for doing the right thing); and be of little grace, in his interactions with allies in Canada, Germany, Korea and Japan, that his departure is to be cheered. Let’s take stock of Trump’s achievements.
  • Iran: When Trump took office, it was 1 year away from a nuclear capability and had verifiably stopped there. Now? 3 months and closing.
  • NK: When Trump took office, no thermonuclear ICBM. Now? Lots of them.
Max pressure? More like max fail. In contrast, Biden is appointing Jake Sullivan to be White House national security adviser. Sullivan has been advising Mr. Biden on domestic policy, but has an extensive foreign policy background. He served as Mr. Biden's national security adviser during President Barack Obama's second term and was a head of policy planning and deputy chief of staff to Hillary Clinton when she was secretary of state.

24. Trump’s ability to do what he wants, whether or not it is good for America is unparallelled — Mark Esper’s classified memo warning that conditions weren't met for withdrawal from Afghanistan, is ignored and the person being objective was fired. While Esper wants the US to get out of Afghanistan to focus on China and Russia and he doesn’t think Afghanistan is a vital national interest, it cannot be allowed to become a haven for terrorists who want to attack the US.

25. The Esper memo reflected the unanimous opinion of the chain of command -- Esper, US Central Command leader Marine Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie, and commander of NATO's mission in Afghanistan Gen. Austin Miller. The risks he was concerned about if conditions weren’t met include:
  • alienating American allies who contribute troops to Operation Resolute Support Mission, whose members currently provide more service members in Afghanistan than the US;
  • "Green-on-Blue" attacks on American service members by anxious Afghan soldiers;
  • eroding the credibility and standing of the US around the world;
  • impacting Afghan military, which relies on US "enablers" such as logistics and air support; and
  • most importantly, undermine efforts to get the Taliban to live up to their end of the peace agreement.
26. The transition to Afghan lead for security started in 2011 and was completed in December 2014, when the ISAF operation ended and the Afghans assumed full responsibility for security of their country. In Jan 2015, NATO launched the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces and institutions. At the July 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels, the American allies and their operational partners committed to sustain RSM until conditions indicate a change is appropriate; to extend financial sustainment of the Afghan security forces through 2024; and to make further progress on developing a political and practical partnership with Afghanistan. Currently, the RSM has 12,000 troops from 38 NATO Allies and partner countries.
 

ngatimozart

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Is this a US Defense thread of Political Thread?
No its not, but the ongoing discussion is relevant because the current political situation in the US impacts upon defence and upon its allies and friends.
 

OPSSG

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Post 1 of 3: Weapons and platforms
Is this a US Defense thread of Political Thread?
1. Agreed to switch gears and talk about, so areas of modernisation, for the US military that relates to great power competition. Feel free to add more.

One, Block V Virginia submarines – the 1st of 3 have begun construction – represent the first time the US Navy has made a major investment in increasing the capability. Whereas past blocks have focused on construction and maintenance efficiencies, and incremental capabilities are added through software updates regularly, the Block V design adds 28 more missile tubes to greatly enhance the strike capability of these SSNs, Program Executive Officer for Submarines Rear Adm. David Goggins said this week at the Naval Submarine League annual symposium.​
(a) Block VI will continue that trend of adding new capability and lethality to the boats, which will be procured in a multiyear contract from Fiscal Years 2024 through 2028.​
(b) Block VI will focus on building upon the acoustic superiority” technology that’s being built into and tested on the future South Dakota (SSN-790), as well as “really enable that organic subsea, seabed warfare kit release for the first time.”​

Two, the US Navy award of a US$9.47 billion contract with builder General Dynamics Electric Boat for the full construction cost of the lead boat of the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, and as advanced procurement money for the second boat, the future USS Wisconsin — means the US Navy has started down the path of SSBN replacement (to modernise and protect the nuclear triad).​
Three, the B61-12 life extension programme (LEP), to overhaul and replace the ageing components such as fuses and batteries of the existing B61 nuclear bomb variants (B61-3, B61-4, B61-7, and B61-10) has begun. The first production unit of the B61-12 nuclear bomb is expected to be completed in 2022; and a total of 400 bombs are expected to be refitted at an estimated cost of US$7.6 billion. This nuclear bomb can be air-launched by the aircraft platforms such as B-2A, F-15E, F-16C/D, F-16 MLU, PA-200, F-35, and B-21. A F-35A flying at a supersonic speed during the testing, dropped the bomb at 10,500 feet.​

Four, long-range precision fire, which is the US Army’s No. 1 modernization priority (the long-range precision fires portfolio), is on track to deliver the force’s long-range hypersonic weapon. This is a joint effort with the US Navy. The US Army had successfully test fired a hypersonic missile and plan to have a battery of prototype hypersonic weapons fielded by FY2023.​

Five, the March 2020 down select for the US Army’s Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) program — to which I will provide slightly more details, FARA is intended to fill a critical capability gap currently being filled by AH-64E Apache attack helicopters teamed with Shadow unmanned aircraft following the retirement of the OH-58D Kiowa Warrior helicopters. The US Army has tried and failed three times to fill the gap with an aircraft.​
Six, in Oct 2020, Sikorsky won a contract for 6 additional CH-53K King Stallion helicopters under a new contract for the US Navy to support the U.S. Marine Corps. Their addition makes a total of 24 CH-53K production aircraft now under contract. Under the terms of this most recent contract – known as Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) Lot 4 – Sikorsky will begin deliveries of the 6 CH-53Ks in Jan 2024.​
 
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OPSSG

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Post 2 of 3: Some context to weapons and platforms
2. Bell and Sikorsky are building their FARA prototypes due for ground tests in 2021— it’s a competition between the Bell Invictus and Sikorsky’s Raider-X.

(a) The Raider-X is projected to hit 220 knots (250 mph), with prototype aircraft are expected to start flying in 4Q of FY 2022. The higher risk but faster Raider-X is competing against a lower-risk Bell Invictus. While the coaxial Raider is faster and more maneuverable (with growth potential), the Invictus meets the requirements with a conventional helicopter design.

(b) Despite their very different designs, each company must incorporate certain common Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) provide by the US Army. That includes a 20mm cannon; the GE T909 Improved Turbine Engine, which will also be retrofitted to existing Apache and Black Hawk helicopters; and the Integrated Munitions Launcher (IML), which will use MOSA interface standards to connect missiles and ALE mini-drones to the aircraft – without having to modify the aircraft each time a new weapon is developed.​

3. FARA is only a small part of the US Army’s Modernization Strategy (AMS). AMS describes how the Total Army -- Regular Army, National Guard, Army Reserve, and Army Civilians -- will transform into a multi-domain force by 2035, meet its enduring responsibility as part of the Joint Force to provide for the defense of the United States, and retain its position as the globally dominant land power. AMS is the US Army's plan to deliver a Multi-Domain Operations capable force and explains how the US Army will operationalize the concept.
 
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OPSSG

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Post 3 of 3: The USAF part in this effort

4. In Nov 2020, the USAF took delivery of the first 3 HH-60W Jolly Green II helicopters. This contract also includes options for the production of 113 HH-60W helicopters. Long anticipated by USAF search and rescue squadrons, the new generation aircraft increases range, lethality, and offers a suite of technological advancements for added situational awareness. The HH-60W has roughly twice the fuel capacity as its predecessor, thanks to a new tank that will double flight time from about 2.5 hours to 5 hours — increasing the reach of USAF search and rescue squadrons, just in case their fighters and bombers are shot down by the enemy. This will aircrews more confidence to perform their missions in A2DA environment of the 1st island chain.

5. In Aug 2020, Randy Walden head of the USAF Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO), offered his comments about the B-21 program. He said: “The first test aircraft is being built, and it’s starting to look like an airplane”.
(a) The USAF announced that it had picked Northrop Grumman to build it in 2015. Six years from the order date, the first of 100 B-21 VLO bombers is scheduled to be rolled out for public view (in 2021), and could fly as early as December 2021, according to USAF.​
(b) The B-21 is being assembled at a secure government-owned, contractor-operated facility known as Air Force Plant 42 near Palmdale, California.​
(c) The decision to replace the non-nuclear B-1B bombers at Ellsworth AFB and Dyess AFB with the nuclear B-21 over the next decade-and-a-half (and to reinstate nuclear weapons storage capability at Barksdale AFB) will expand the number of strategic bomber bases that can store nuclear weapons from two today to five by the 2030s.​
(d) The B-21 will replace the B-2A no later than 2032 and the B-1Bs no later than 2036.​

6. The B-21 bomber program is expected to increase the overall size of the US strategic bomber force. The USAF currently operates about 158 bombers (62 B-1B, 20 B-2A, and 76 B-52H) and has long said it plans to procure at least 100 B-21 bombers. That number now appears [Strategy & Policy - Air Force Magazine] to be at least 145, which will increase the overall bomber force by 62 bombers to about 220. There are currently nine bomber squadrons, a number the USAF wants to increase to 14 (each base has more than one squadron).

7. During an interview with reporters in April 2020, the head of AFGSC, General Timothy Ray, reportedly said the 220 number was a “minimum, not a ceiling” and added: “We as the Air Force now believe it’s over 220.” Whether Congress will agree to pay for that many B-21s remains to be seen.
 
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Beholder

Active Member
So I think that the proposition put forward by the article's author is definitely valid and much cause for concern. The article is well worth the read and gives cause for thought.

Let's see.

The problem with this renewed emphasis on lethality is that the United States already has an impressive panoply of coercive power, one capable of dishing out more lethality than any of several other nations on the planet combined, including Russia and China. Yet despite this lethal overmatch, it hasn’t been able to achieve U.S. policy preferences—the very purpose of war—for a generation or more. That’s something that is unlikely to change no matter how much more lethal it becomes.

I think it is false. And i don't understand why it is tied to "achieve U.S. policy preferences" concept. Military power allow you to conduct your own policy independently, it does not directly translates to "achieve policy preferences". Especially if you are democratic country, as democratic countries reluctant to use military power to "achieve policy preferences".

America’s adversaries, recognizing this, are moving beyond mere lethality. They’re still building tanks, planes, and ships, of course—but they’re also working to seize first-mover advantages by recognizing the asymmetric potential of a globally integrated datasphere and the revolutionary applications of autonomous weapons and artificial intelligence.


Here i'm lost, investments in "applications of autonomous weapons and artificial intelligence" are investments in lethality. There is no definition of lethality in article, but i assume they mean not just power, but also first see, first shoot capability and precision of munition.
USA invest a lot in it, as are other western countries.

Russia’s “new-generation war” is characterized by an emphasis on information weapons, for instance. Its goal is to achieve Russian political preferences by changing foreign citizens’ moral values and undermining state authority—not through the application of lethal force. But Russia has also invested billions of dollars in autonomous systems that it has extensively tested in Syria.

They identified essential need of democratic government to justify military action to population, so they invest in capability to subvert it. But it does not work other way around, we(West and US in particular) can't really use such methods to counter them.
Autonomous systems, Syria? Don't understand. May someone clarify.

China’s “Three Warfares” doctrine synchronizes the employment of strategic psychological operations, the manipulation of global media narratives, and the weaponization of legalism to establish precedent, foster doubt, and erode international norms—to which the People’s Liberation Army’s growing capacity to deliver lethal force is but an adjunct. China’s concept of systems confrontation warfare “is no longer centered on the annihilation of enemy forces on the battlefield” but on the disruption or paralysis of an enemy’s “operating system,” a schema that can be equally applied to naval flotillas or national infrastructure.

Well, this is legit. But as i said we hardly can counter in same way. We(West and US in particular) need to introduce more stability as counter, like regional alliances. And having more military power on good guys side will not hurt.

These concepts, of course, aren’t entirely new. Nor are they magic bullets capable of inflicting the sort of catastrophic doom on the United States that some commentors imagine. What they are, however, are signs that the country’s principal adversaries have recognized the changing character of geopolitical competition in an environment that bears little resemblance to the one that spawned the mass industrial-style wars of the 20th century.

This also legit, but too broad. You need counter political destabilisation, partisan money injection etc. all topic in itself.

If the United States is to survive and thrive in the 21st century, its leaders must recognize that the currency of great-power competition under contemporary conditions isn’t measured in the numbers of ballistic missiles or aircraft carriers a state possesses but by its administrative capacity, structural resilience, and global legitimacy. The real competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other, is between competing systems of governance and ways of ordering society.

True and false in a way. If China use money and market access to bribe politicians it's not about "competing systems of governance and ways of ordering society".
I also don't understand why can't it be both, why it is either "numbers of ballistic missiles or aircraft carriers a state possesses" or "its administrative capacity, structural resilience, and global legitimacy".
Can't lose on any front apparently.

The United States needs a modern military that’s better suited to defend its governance systems against the threats its competitors pose. It needs a military that’s both adaptive and resilient, one flexible enough to quickly concentrate resources when crises emerge—and just as quickly able to reallocate them when those crises subside. It needs a military capable of continuous operations in the increasingly crowded and contested global digital commons, one that’s able to effectively respond to the strategic and operational challenges of this century—not the last one.

Does military should be tasked with "defend its governance systems against the threats its competitors pose..." "in the increasingly crowded and contested global digital commons"?
I'm not entirely convinced. Military first and foremost have traditional role.

Before the digital warfare revolution subsides, the old ways of warfighting will have been left behind. If the United States continues to spend profligately on military platforms whose looming obsolescence is clear to anyone paying attention, it risks competing itself to death by preparing for a conventional war that never comes, while its adversaries win the societal-level conflict that’s already here.

Ok, so how will this win proceed? They will convert EU to little China? I know that if China will possess actual warfighting capabilities in Asia pacific that more powerful then US we will see more states listening to China. Same with rise of financial or technological influence.
Warfare is multidimensional, you can't ignore conventional one.
----
All in all article call to reduce conventional military power.
Is it part of "employment of strategic psychological operations" as part of "China’s “Three Warfares?:rolleyes:

Also article treat US allies as vassals. Will other countries surrender to China bcs US military did not countered adversary "in the increasingly crowded and contested global digital commons"? Or because they can't counter conventional military threat?
Will they try to counter threats outlined in article alone, or turn to allies for help?
China's hardly wins hearts and minds in democratic countries, even with money.
US military force(not necessarily presence) by itself is stabilising factor.
 

ngatimozart

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Let's see.

The problem ...

Also article treat US allies as vassals. Will other countries surrender to China bcs US military did not countered adversary "in the increasingly crowded and contested global digital commons"? Or because they can't counter conventional military threat?
Will they try to counter threats outlined in article alone, or turn to allies for help?
China's hardly wins hearts and minds in democratic countries, even with money.
US military force(not necessarily presence) by itself is stabilising factor.
What the article is saying that because of the digital age there is not only a revolution in military affairs, but also a revolution in whole of state security right across the board, from protecting traditional nation secrets to protection of national democracy at the basic level i.e., the voter level and the expression of the voters will. We can no longer think in late 20th C / early 21st C terms because now in 2020 the digital revolution has changed the rules far beyond what we are used to. Think back to the changes the machine gun and the aeroplane bought to warfare before and during WW1 and how the generals were totally unprepared, with some still using Napoleonic war tactics. Men and horses against machine guns, shell burst artillery, and aeroplanes was never going to work and just provided more meat for death.

If you look at all of the US's military responses since Vietnam, they have gone in militarily achieved some form of superiority and in the case of the Gulf War 1 didn't finish the job. There they left a seething vipers pit behind and after promising the Kurds that they would help them if they fought against Saddam, which they did, they did the dirty on them and Saddam used chemical weapons on the Kurds in the marshes in genocidal revenge. When the US went into Iraq on a very dodgy pretext in 2003, they did the military thing, but nothing substantive on the civilian side for the local people except the political elites. The same in Afghanistan. No hearts and minds policies and no economic rebuilds of any consequence that benefited the local farmers, shopkeepers, tax drivers etc. So they basically have gone in, shoot everything up and leave a mess for someone else to clean up. It is not a good look and is different to how British Commonwealth forces would operate.

The US military is no longer the stabilising force that it once was because it no longer has the capabilities and it is run down and tired. It cannot fight two peer on peer wars at the same time, which is what Congress mandated it to do decades ago, and that mandate has never been rescinded. At the present point in time the US no longer has the respect that it once had and its own allies doubt the validity of its word. It is not the proud, strong, trustworthy and honourable nation that it once was. And that's not going to change with Biden's inauguration. It is going to take years of hard work to restore and that's if the US wants to restore it to what it once was. The pre 2016 US isn't going to come back - that's gone forever and a new US is going to emerge from the ashes, but first it has a lot to sort out within its own borders and within its own soul.

Western countries are years behind the likes of Russia and the PRC in cyberwarfare. You suggested strengthening the US military and because it has smart weapons, it will succeed against Russia or China's type of warfare. It's all very well having a smart munition that's real gee whizz, but you still have to give it a target and tell it where it is and the munition still has to navigate its way there. You use computers, a net and GPS for that .... But your extra military power is no good if all the electronic systems are useless because of enemy cyberwarfare and your transport systems and support systems are down and you can't move or do anything.
 

Beholder

Active Member
I'll rearrange part of text to better make a point:

What the article is saying that because of the digital age there is not only a revolution in military affairs, but also a revolution in whole of state security right across the board, from protecting traditional nation secrets to protection of national democracy at the basic level i.e., the voter level and the expression of the voters will. We can no longer think in late 20th C / early 21st C terms because now in 2020 the digital revolution has changed the rules far beyond what we are used to. Think back to the changes the machine gun and the aeroplane bought to warfare before and during WW1 and how the generals were totally unprepared, with some still using Napoleonic war tactics. Men and horses against machine guns, shell burst artillery, and aeroplanes was never going to work and just provided more meat for death.
With that no one argue. However digital strength does not directly translate to military. Or in other words it's hard to weaponize.
Mainly because it's hard to do it silently and result is not direct damage. China do something, we will know. China steal something online, we will know.

Western countries are years behind the likes of Russia and the PRC in cyberwarfare.
You use computers, a net and GPS for that .... But your extra military power is no good if all the electronic systems are useless because of enemy cyberwarfare and your transport systems and support systems are down and you can't move or do anything.
Let's see, does China able to produce something as Stuxnet? Probably. Is China, or Russia way ahead of the West? Nope.
West less active in field of stealing, we mainly concentrate on defence, but West do have cyberwarfare capabilities, far more then RF or China.
RF simply weak in that regard, China less so. "China hackers", "RF hackers" certainly a mem, but other then that, very little real capability.
PRC do have one big advantage and that is access to Big Data of all chinese commercial companies.

If you look at all of the US's military responses since Vietnam, they have gone in militarily achieved some form of superiority and in the case of the Gulf War 1 didn't finish the job. There they left a seething vipers pit behind and after promising the Kurds that they would help them if they fought against Saddam, which they did, they did the dirty on them and Saddam used chemical weapons on the Kurds in the marshes in genocidal revenge. When the US went into Iraq on a very dodgy pretext in 2003, they did the military thing, but nothing substantive on the civilian side for the local people except the political elites. The same in Afghanistan. No hearts and minds policies and no economic rebuilds of any consequence that benefited the local farmers, shopkeepers, tax drivers etc. So they basically have gone in, shoot everything up and leave a mess for someone else to clean up. It is not a good look and is different to how British Commonwealth forces would operate.
Does British Commonwealth have ability to invade and stabilise country like Iraq, nope they don't.
What about Lybia? Nope. Syria? Nope.
No democratic nation can. You get tied down in asymmetric warfare, unless you limit weapon supply from states that don't want you to be successful, or state itself is homogeneous and not tribal.
Kosovo was success i think, but little foreign interference.

The US military is no longer the stabilising force that it once was because it no longer has the capabilities and it is run down and tired. It cannot fight two peer on peer wars at the same time, which is what Congress mandated it to do decades ago, and that mandate has never been rescinded. At the present point in time the US no longer has the respect that it once had and its own allies doubt the validity of its word. It is not the proud, strong, trustworthy and honourable nation that it once was. And that's not going to change with Biden's inauguration. It is going to take years of hard work to restore and that's if the US wants to restore it to what it once was. The pre 2016 US isn't going to come back - that's gone forever and a new US is going to emerge from the ashes, but first it has a lot to sort out within its own borders and within its own soul.
Pre 2016 US i don't want to see in the first place. :)
Because of China rise.
And US can fight 2 wars no problem. Requirements never were "two peer on peer wars", it was "2 major wars"(like war in Iraq).
In 2001 it changed to:

Defend United States territory.
Prevent aggressors from taking hostile action by making them afraid of a response from American forces in Europe, the Middle East, southwest Asia, northeast Asia and along the East Asian rim.

"Win decisively" in one major conflict.

Conduct "small-scale contingencies of limited duration in other areas of the world."



I also don't understand "US no longer has the respect that it once had and its own allies doubt the validity of its word"?
Did US gave word to eternally pay for allies defence? No. Place troops indefinitely in another state? No.
What exactly are obligations that US not upholding?
And what obligation US allies have, if any?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not really the proper thread for this question but the other potential cyber player amongst this group is India. Haven’t seen much about their capabilities. Even with many Indians abroad working for Western corporations, there is still a huge pool of English speaking IT personnel in India. Hard to believe India wouldn’t have some significant expertise.
 

Beholder

Active Member
Not really the proper thread for this question but the other potential cyber player amongst this group is India. Haven’t seen much about their capabilities. Even with many Indians abroad working for Western corporations, there is still a huge pool of English speaking IT personnel in India. Hard to believe India wouldn’t have some significant expertise.
I also haven't seen. But it is really easy to believe lack of significant capability.
In general in West capabilities come from cutting edge cyber security companies, on volume China probably not much worse, problem is quality. In India i'm not sure even about quantity.
In general it's mater of investments and time.
But as i said it's not easy to transfer it to actual real world capability. Before you try to sabotage something, you need to know what exactly you are targeting.
 

ngatimozart

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I also haven't seen. But it is really easy to believe lack of significant capability.
In general in West capabilities come from cutting edge cyber security companies, on volume China probably not much worse, problem is quality. In India i'm not sure even about quantity.
In general it's mater of investments and time.
But as i said it's not easy to transfer it to actual real world capability. Before you try to sabotage something, you need to know what exactly you are targeting.
You are really underestimating both Chinese and Russian capabilities and the PRC have penetrated most cyber companies plus Lockheed Martin, Boeing etc., at various stages. I would also not be surprised that they have also penetrated Israeli tech companies as well, plus Israeli govt organisations. They are good, most likely very good and the Chinese don't think like the west does because they have a completely different culture and world view. I would also be careful about carelessly casting Indian capabilities aside as well. After all they have developed a nuclear arsenal without outside help. The Indians may have their idiosyncrasies, but stupidity isn't one of them. So I would cast your preconceived views and arrogances aside.
 

Beholder

Active Member
You are really underestimating both Chinese and Russian capabilities and the PRC have penetrated most cyber companies plus Lockheed Martin, Boeing etc., at various stages. I would also not be surprised that they have also penetrated Israeli tech companies as well, plus Israeli govt organisations. They are good, most likely very good and the Chinese don't think like the west does because they have a completely different culture and world view. I would also be careful about carelessly casting Indian capabilities aside as well. After all they have developed a nuclear arsenal without outside help. The Indians may have their idiosyncrasies, but stupidity isn't one of them. So I would cast your preconceived views and arrogances aside.
I'm programmer, projects are web based(not simple sites), so i know exactly how such things are done.
It's not technical capability of China is greater, usually it's problem on defender side, either system security design flawed, or human error as a result of fishing. Then product is compromised. That is how dark net operates. Same way are hackers that you read about in internet.
And Big Data plays significant role here(fishing), so i'm not underestimating China.
It's not cyber weapon though. Stuxnet didn't relied on human error. It attacked specific weakness of real world product. At least you need to know that specific technical weakness.

I don't have preconceived views and arrogances. No matter how i may sound my emotions, real or perceived, are not part of things i write about technical things or military. :)
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
You are really underestimating both Chinese and Russian capabilities and the PRC have penetrated most cyber companies plus Lockheed Martin, Boeing etc., at various stages. I would also not be surprised that they have also penetrated Israeli tech companies as well, plus Israeli govt organisations. They are good, most likely very good and the Chinese don't think like the west does because they have a completely different culture and world view. I would also be careful about carelessly casting Indian capabilities aside as well. After all they have developed a nuclear arsenal without outside help. The Indians may have their idiosyncrasies, but stupidity isn't one of them. So I would cast your preconceived views and arrogances aside.
WRT to India’s nuclear weapons program, they did exploit Canadian CANDU technologies which resulted in a very long ban on further Canadian commercial nuclear support.
 

ngatimozart

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Verified Defense Pro
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I think Biden may have trouble getting Austin's nomination approved by the Congress. He will require a waiver to the law that requires seven years service between discharge from service in the US military and appointment to the Cabinet. It is rarely given with IIRC only once in the century preceding Trump’s Presidency. Then you had Gen Mattis as SECDEF. Congress will also be wary of more military in the White House after the Trump White House having so many senior military in senior positions.
 

OPSSG

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Updates on Biden/Austin & the Pentagon — Part 1 of 3

1. The first two Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) GEO satellites started operations in 2013. In 2019 alone, SBIRS detected nearly one thousand missile launches, which is about a two-fold increase in two years. SBIRS GEO-5 and GEO-6 are slated to join the U.S. Space Force’s missile warning satellites, equipped with sensors that detect missile launches, support ballistic missile defense, expand technical intelligence gathering and bolster situational awareness on the battlefield.
(a) The prime contractor for SBIRS is Lockheed Martin, with Northrop Grumman as the major subcontractor. Lockheed Martin also provides the satellite for SBIRS GEO.​
(b) With GEO-3 (20 Jan 2017) and SBIRS GEO-4 (20 Jan 2018) in space, the Americans have significant capabilities in the areas of missile warning, missile defense and battlespace characterization via satellites in geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), sensors hosted on satellites in highly elliptical orbit (HEO).​
(c) SBIRS GEO-5 was officially completed on 29 Oct 2020 and awaits launch in 2021. Besides SBIRS GEO-5 and GEO-6, the LM 2100 space vehicle is the baseline for three Next Gen OPIR Block 0 GEO satellites expecting to launch starting in 2025; and the future GPS III Follow On (GPS IIIF) satellites, which are expected to launch starting in 2026.​
I think Biden may have trouble getting Austin's nomination approved by the Congress. He will require a waiver...
2. True, that Congress has waived this requirement for just two generals nominated to be secretary of defense: George Marshall in 1950 and James Mattis in 2017.
(a) I feel a lot of the talk is nonsense, as Biden understands how to manage the Senate and has pull to get alliances with NATO (including Europe, Canada, & UK), with South Korea (to manage rocket man Kim) and Japan, bent back into shape.​
(b) If the Republican Senators block Austin’s appointment, they don’t get to be strong on defence. Anyway Biden’s incoming team to the department of defence (DoD), starting with Austin (and the next level down) is much more qualified than the clown show parade put up by Trump.​
(c) The Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Adam Smith, offered a full-throated endorsement of Michele Flournoy to be President-elect Joe Biden's pick for Defense Secretary on Monday, just hours before news broke that Biden selected retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin for the job.​

3. It is not only the Republicans in the Senate Armed Forces Committee Biden has to balance against, it is the super progressives within his party that wants civilians in charge (but can’t agree to anyone with relevant experience). Some super progressive groups had also mobilized in recent days to oppose Michèle Flournoy's potential nomination, though the delay may have been a result of the complicated puzzle Biden is assembling as he tries to fulfill his promise of building a Cabinet that reflects the diversity of America — a potential factor in the President-elect's delay. The super progressives:
  • don’t want a general to be defense secretary
  • don’t want anyone who has worked in the defense industry
  • don’t want a man
  • don’t want anyone who supported a prior war
  • don’t want anyone who carried out their duties in Iraq or Afghanistan.

    Q: What exactly do they want?
4. Not sure how to characterise the liberal think-tankers and advocacy groups who decried, in turn, the appointment, or potential appointment, of Mark Esper, Michèle Flournoy, and now oppose Biden’s choice of Lloyd Austin to lead the DoD that is supported by the Congressional Black Caucus, who wants an African-American as Defense secretary. As Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who opposed a Mattis waiver in 2017, recently said:
“I have the deepest respect and admiration for Gen. Austin, and his nomination is exciting and historic. But I believe that a waiver of the seven-year rule would contravene the basic principle that there should be civilian control over a nonpolitical military.”​
 
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