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The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by Pentaprism, May 6, 2019.

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  1. Ranger25

    Ranger25 Active Member

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    Si Vis Pacem. Para Bellum

    I agree with Feanor, the Iranian Military is technologically way behind the US and Western militaries and would be quickly outgunned.

    there would also be NO reason for any land warfare or invasion of Iran proper.

    A limited Aerial campaign to reduce any threats to the Straights is all that would be required to secure the straights and send Iran a Firm message and lesson. Perhaps naval TLAMS to open an air corridor through the A2D2 network and then follow on air strikes using Standoff munitions such as the LRASM to clean up any remaining threats.

    That said, US bases in the Gulf region would need to heighten all security and be prepared for Quds style Asymmetrical threats as well as IRGC MRBM strikes. Would need a layer of DDG-51(SM2/6) PAC 3s and THAAD prepared to intercept incoming rounds.
     
  2. 2007yellow430

    2007yellow430 Member

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  3. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    For clarity, the Millennium Challenge in 2002 was an invasion scenario — the staff college war game began with a forced-entry exercise that included the 82nd Airborne and the 1st Marine Division. Very different from our current discussion. From a US point of view, conducting some surgical strikes is the easy part. The difficult part is where does it stop, especially if Iranians want to give it a good go in the action-reaction cycle, for 12 to 18 months and keep dragging on the fight beyond November 2020 (till after the US elections). Iranian proxies are not without capability to hurt US interests (but they have no hope of ‘winning’) in the region. But I do agree that the red force tactics used by General Van Riper in the Millennium Challenge (that included those used against the USS Cole in 2000), is dangerous to US navy ships patrolling the region.

    On the plus side, John Bolton has resigned — oil prices went down on the news. While war is more remote now that this hawk is gone; it remains to be seen how the Trump Administration will negotiate with the Iranians going forward.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019 at 5:08 AM