In broad strokes, your perspective is valid. In context, I was comparing it to propaganda.
The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
- Thread starter Pentaprism
- Start date
Sorry, I fear there may be a misunderstanding. I'm not arguing that the two are comparable, merely that the lack of transparency gives rise to speculation and even misinformation. I think the best the US can do is be honest about what happened and how.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Civil Aviation Organization of Iran confirms Tor-M1s fired at airliner | Jane's 360
Seems according to Jane's, Iranian military already confirmed the Ukrainian Airlines shot down using TOR-M1 short range mobile system.
Make sense, since this system usually put guarding vital area including Airport. However if this true, then there's serious gap in defense net work that the SAM operators nearby Airport did not know there's Airliners that just took off.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I would think it is less a 'gap' in the defence network, and more of an illustration on the problems of integration. The system clearly was able to detect and subsequently engage the commercial airliner, what was lacking was the data sets so that the operators knew what it was and that it was permitted, and/or the civil aviation organization in Iran did not know that air ops was supposed to be suspended at the time.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Sorry if I still talk on USD in International market. This is the video from Wall Street Journal talking on USD dominance in International market. Including how after 9/11 US begin to be more assertive on using USD as tools to enforce their embargoes.
I put this as basically this video summarize what we've been talking on USD dominance in International Trade on this thread.
1. USD control most International Trade (around 80%+), due to it's easiness to use.
2. System of correspondence banks basically are under control on US market and FED.
3. Some countries try to circumstances USD on International trade by creating their own exchange system. However as the video shows and implied it will be more costly due to smaller market and more complex.
4. There will be effort from several other countries to reduce dependencies to USD in International market, but it will take long time and much effort to attract Commercial trading to move away from easiness of USD usage.
Hope this will give more understanding to whoever still not clear on why USD dominance on International Trade will stay for foreseable future, despite effort to reduce dependencies on USD (thus also US policies). In short if market still trust US Financial market, they will still use USD.
1. Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi insurgents—Shiite rebels with links to Iran and a history of rising up against the Sunni government—took control of Yemen’s capital and largest city, Sana'a.
2. The United Nations, which appointed a new special envoy for Yemen in 2018, has attempted to broker a cease-fire but the civil war has dragged on without end between the Saudi backed Yemen Government and the Houthis. See the backgrounders (including this April 2010 Carnegie pdf: War in Saada - From Local Insurrection to National Challenge and this Feb 2020 MEI article: The UAE may have withdrawn from Yemen, but its influence remains strong). On 28 Mar 2020, the Houthis have resumed firing missiles at Riyadh with Tehran’s technological assistance.
3. Given this latest attack in the middle of a global pandemic, Yemen's Huthi rebels will get no sympathy from me from this point going forward (if there is a coronavirus outbreak in Yemen).
4. Saudi forces intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthi militia, targeting:
5. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, but Yemen's Iran-aligned Huthi rebels have previously targeted Riyadh and other Saudi cities with missiles, rockets and drones. It was the first major assault on Saudi Arabia since the Huthis offered last September to halt attacks on the kingdom after devastating twin strikes on Saudi oil installations.
2. The United Nations, which appointed a new special envoy for Yemen in 2018, has attempted to broker a cease-fire but the civil war has dragged on without end between the Saudi backed Yemen Government and the Houthis. See the backgrounders (including this April 2010 Carnegie pdf: War in Saada - From Local Insurrection to National Challenge and this Feb 2020 MEI article: The UAE may have withdrawn from Yemen, but its influence remains strong). On 28 Mar 2020, the Houthis have resumed firing missiles at Riyadh with Tehran’s technological assistance.
3. Given this latest attack in the middle of a global pandemic, Yemen's Huthi rebels will get no sympathy from me from this point going forward (if there is a coronavirus outbreak in Yemen).
Saudi Gazette: Arab Coalition intercepts, destroys Houthi ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, Jazan
4. Saudi forces intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthi militia, targeting:
- the Saudi capital Riyadh and
- the southern city of Jazan,
5. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, but Yemen's Iran-aligned Huthi rebels have previously targeted Riyadh and other Saudi cities with missiles, rockets and drones. It was the first major assault on Saudi Arabia since the Huthis offered last September to halt attacks on the kingdom after devastating twin strikes on Saudi oil installations.
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Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen carried out 19 air raids on Houthi rebels in Saana, Yemen's capital, in a single day. The Saudi-UAE strikes came after Houthi fighters, who are backed by Iran, launched a series of rockets at Riyadh. The attacks on Sanaa, Yemen came after Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles the Houthis said they had launched.
I'm not sure I can agree with this. The Saudis and their proxies still occupy a large portion of Yemen. I think it would be strange to expect the Houthis, who have seen their civilians suffer terribly under Saudi bombardment, to simply halt their successful offensive operations against the Saudis due to a virus outbreak in a country where civilians routinely suffer and die from preventable diseases due to lack of healthcare (they recently had a massive cholera outbreak, among other things).
1. This is an expected response from you, as you are consistently more indifferent to deaths than me, including preventable deaths from the up-coming large scale disease outbreak in Yemen, that is being accidentally spread by the Iranians.
2. In recent weeks the Houthis have taken control of territory in Jawf province including its main city of Hazm, which lies northeast of the capital, Sanaa, while it has also pushed into parts of the resource-rich Marib province, held by Yemen's internationally recognised government in the north.
3. The Houthis are trying to gain more ground with the withdrawal of UAE troops in Yemen. Instead of being satisfied with their gains on the ground, they seek to enlarge the fighting to trigger a larger humanitarian crisis.
4. MARTIN GRIFFITHS, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, emphasized that the county is at a critical juncture whereby the parties to the conflict will either move it towards de-escalation and a resumed political process or towards greater violence and suffering that will make negotiations difficult. Pointing to the military escalation in Al Jawf, he expressed concern about the impact of the violence on the people of that governorate, where thousands of families have been displaced and require shelter and assistance. The escalation could trigger conflicts in other governorates, creating a new cycle of violence with devastating humanitarian and political consequences, he warned, calling upon the parties to exercise maximum restraint. Please take note of the following responses recorded at the UN:
(i) Indonesia’s representative cautioned that the current escalation impedes humanitarian efforts and may prompt a return to the elevated levels of civilian casualties seen in 2018. He also reiterated calls for access to the deserted oil tanker Safer — moored at the port of Hudaydah — before it is too late to avert an environmental disaster for Yemen and the wider region.
(ii) The Dominican Republic’s representative also remarked on the escalating hostilities, warning that the fighting could jeopardize hard-won political headway and has had a devastating effect on civilians. A national ceasefire is urgently needed, and issues of justice and accountability cannot be ignored, he stressed. He also called attention to unprecedented swarms of locusts in Yemen’s desert areas.
(iii) Germany’s representative said it is “incomprehensible” that leaders in Sana’a treat humanitarian workers in a manner that calls into question the entire aid operation in the north. He called upon all parties to stop harassing humanitarian staff, facilitate unhindered access, lift bureaucratic restrictions and implement project agreements without delay.
(iv) Yemen’s representative said that the Houthis continue to obstruct United Nations peace efforts, adding that the recent military escalation is a sign that they were never serious about peace. They also continue to target hospitals and refugee camps in many parts of the country, restrict the movement of the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA) and to target observation posts in that port city. Iran continues to supply the Houthis with military support while encouraging them to obstruct United Nations efforts, he said, warning that the situation could deteriorate further without international support.
5. With the withdrawal of UAE troops, the conditions are more favourable for a political settlement that enables the Houthis to consolidate their control over areas they have already won by past fighting.
(i) But they are greedy.
(ii) Currently, civilian casualties are rising again in 2020, with 187 killed or wounded in February alone, and that the figure amounts to more than 6 people every day and a 20 per cent increase since January. Much of the increase is due to fighting in Al Jawf and Marib.
(iii) Once the coronavirus pandemic hits — deaths will easily increase to 1,870 per month, in the 1st month and rising to 18,700 per month within 3 months (instead of 187 per month currently). And Iran’s aid to the Houthis will increase the rate that the virus is spreading through in Yemen.
6. Keep in mind that the Houthi grip on Sanaa and the northern highlands appears fairly secure but the group has few domestic allies, having fought against most of the other major factions in Yemen, including Hadi loyalists, southern separatists, pro-Islah party militias, and loyalists of the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. This means that many areas of Yemen do not want to live under Houthi rule. Therefore, there is only so much blame you can level at Saudi Arabia.
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What makes you think that the goal is to enlarge the fighting and trigger a humanitarian crisis? In my opinion their goal is far less nefarious and far more straight forward. They're winning the war, why would they not keep pushing forward? In fact, what makes you think they would at any point be "satisfied" with anything less then a complete defeat of the Hadi loyalists, and a complete expulsion of Saudi Arabia and all of its allies? I would add this; why should they be satisfied with anything less?
Proving or at least supporting the idea that the humanitarian crisis in and of itself is their goal, as you state, is really hard. I can't help but wonder what pushed you to that conclusion. If you have some interesting reading on the subject, I would appreciate it.
I think they are serious about peace. It's just that peace to them would be the defeat of their enemies and complete withdrawal of the Saudis and all of their coalition partners, permanently.
This is a country where the pre-war child malnutrition rate was staggering, and some sources claim over 80 000 children in Yemen starved to death during the current conflict. Again, I'm not sure how sensitive they would be to the current coronavirus, or how well positioned they would be to do a whole lot about it, when even developed countries are having difficulties in curbing its spread. And I don't think the Houthi efforts can simply be attributed to greed. Their country was invaded by a foreign coalition, in support of domestic opposition, with a brutality that would make most currently reigning authoritarians blush. Now they are winning. Saudi Arabia has been bled and bled by their military failures, they've been both embarrassed and tangibly hurt by missile and UAV strikes against their infrastructure, their coalition is collapsing, and to top it off the price of oil is in the gutter. What better time for the Houthis to make their push?
Perhaps my view of the conflict is colored by what I have seen and read about it, which is admittedly limited to the basic military and political layout. However I can't help but wonder, if they're fighting against all these domestic enemies, and a giant foreign coalition, and they're winning, how large and/or significant in influence can these other domestic groups be? After all, the Houthis are winning...
@OPSSG It seems to be that you favor a negotiated settlement here, which has been a pattern in many conflicts across the third world, and there's something to be said for it. But it doesn't explain why you think they Houthis should favor such a settlement, and it doesn't explain why anyone would reasonably expect them to. They've gotten where they are today through force of arms, with considerable Iranian aid. Their enemies weren't interested in a negotiated settlement, until they failed in their offensives, over and over again. It seems me that the logical conclusion here is for the Houthis to defeat their enemies, and then re-organize the country internally, ideally with a new representative government. This makes far more sense to me then striking a deal with an opposition that's propped up from abroad by obvious enemies.
2. North Yemen became a republic in 1962 and the neighbours remained separate until 1990, when they finally signed a unity accord, merging the two states into one following two short-lived wars in 1972 and 1978.
3. Houthi controlled territory can only be around the size of what was the former North Yemen — so it is obvious that they can’t ‘win’ the war in Yemen. The northern predominantly Zaidi tribal confederations of Hashid and Bakil have been crucial to the success of the Houthi advance, while tribes in the south that are part of the Madhaj confederation like Bani Hilal and Al Awalik in Shabwa and Yafae in Abyan have fought alongside the pro-Saudi coalition, protecting their territory while benefiting from the vehicles and arms provided by the UAE and Saudi members of the coalition.
4. I hope the above link with maps (of Houthi controlled areas in 2015, 2017 and June 2019) for background reading clarifies instead of the two of us continuing this conversation ahistorically?
5. Formed in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has 26 members, the STC includes five governors from Southern Yemen and two former government ministers. And the STC’s militia can fight effectively. If the STC is attacked, UAE will provide them with war materials and close air support. Emirati backing was crucial in helping the STC gain Aden, which has been under its control since 2018. This means the Houthis have no hope of winning in the South. The Houthis can’t win the war in Yemen (as they lack the logistics and STC has control of a key port). Please tell me:
Q1: What are the Houthis hoping for in this 2020 round of fighting?
6. You also seem to show no awareness that the Houthi controlled area is under a naval blockade — which means whatever arms they get from Iran is only in drips and drabs.
(i) Look at the maps in the link — while they may have won some recent battles, the Houthis have no hope of gaining back all the territory they controlled in 2015 (and much less win in the South) — lack of logistics limits their ability to advance and control a hostile area for long.
(ii) Iran, as backer of the Houthis, has been badly damaged in the salvoes of an oil price war. But the most significant damage that is necessitating a scaling down of Iran’s ambitions in Yemen is the emergence of the coronavirus in Iran and also as a global emergency that is depressing global oil demand. Iran's health ministry on 5 Apr 2020 said the coronavirus death toll in the country had reached 3,603, and only admits that 58,226 people were infected (when the real figure is estimated to be half a million infected). The daily toll has been rising by at least 100 deaths for the past few days.
(iii) Even in Houthi controlled areas, like in the city of Sana’a, there is chronic water shortage. Wells there now extend up to 1,200 meters in the ground, with water levels in the aquifer now dropping by six meters a year. UNDP programme officer Qahtan al-Abahi was quoted saying that the lower the water table, the lower the quality of the water. “The water is becoming more salinized,” he said. He spoke about a rise in kidney ailments. Solutions to the water crisis in the north have been put forward— but fighting prevents any attempt at a solution.
7. @Feanor, I hope the above link helps as I cannot make heads or tails of what you say. Once the infections spread, it is estimated that cases will double every fifth day. Please tell me:Feanor said:
Q2: What does winning look like?
8. Yemen—the poorest country in the region—is beset by persistent challenges that affect the quality of life of Yemeni citizens. The current war has catapulted the country into a deeper humanitarian crisis that will aggravate endemic humanitarian needs and leave citizens more vulnerable to shocks for years to come.
9. Even in a scenario where a ceasefire is called and stabilizing governmental processes were put in place, the lack of state capacity or infrastructure suggests that humanitarian responses will extend far beyond the ceasefire. Long-term trends like water shortages, urbanization and population growth have long been identified by international organizations as issues to which policies can be directed to help Yemen cope.
10. I may be just dense but what you say does not make sense to me — Saudi Arabia shares a 1,800 km land border with Yemen — Oman shares a 288 km land border with Yemen. Oman continues to provide humanitarian assistance to Yemenis to alleviate their suffering, maintain stability along its border and enhance historical cross-border ties. “Omanis look at Yemenis as human beings without trying to be superior,” said Ahmed Yahya Ahmed, who traveled in 2018 from Yemen to Sultan Qaboos Hospital in Salalah, Oman, to seek medical treatment for his sick father. The collapse of Yemeni state institutions and the civil war means Saudi Arabia and/or Oman will always have a vote as to what happens in Yemen.
11. Despite Yemen’s upheavals since 2011, Mahra province has not been affected economically because it relied on Omani markets to obtain fuel and food, depending especially on a major shared market, the Al-Mazyounah, which is a few kilometers from Yemen’s Shihen border-crossing. This explains why Mahra province managed to remain economically autonomous from the other provinces. If the Houthis’ goal is the complete expulsion of Saudi Arabia and all of its allies, it is totally unrealistic. I can’t believe you can adopt this unreasoned stance without justification or providing additional context.
12. Forgive me for having to admit that I do not know how to post further replies to you (as I cannot understand what seems to be a selective cherry picking approach). If you provide more context, I might be able to better understand your approach.
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The IRGC continues to play games in the Straights This time circling around the USN floating staging based and its escorts. Ideally one of these incidents doesn’t end with someone making a mistake and turning it into a larger issue. Interesting the USN continues to work CONOPS with US Army Apaches for counter small boat swarms
news.usni.org
VIDEO: Iranian Attack Boats Harass U.S. Navy, Coast Guard Vessels in Persian Gulf - USNI News
Nearly a dozen Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) vessels harassed a formation of U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships in international waters in the northern Persian Gulf, the Navy announced today. Eleven Iranian vessels “repeatedly conducted dangerous and harassing approaches of...
news.usni.org
An Iranian live-fire naval training event went horribly wrong in the Gulf of Oman when a support ship called the Konarak was struck by an anti-ship cruise missile on 10 May 2020. The mistake has killed at least 19 Iranian sailors and wounded 15 more. Konarak was placing targets for other ships to use for the exercise when the missile, a C-802 Noor, made a direct hit on the vessel.
Warzone/The Drive: Here's All That's Left Of Iranian Navy Ship Struck By Missile In Friendly Fire Tragedy (Updated)
Warzone/The Drive: Here's All That's Left Of Iranian Navy Ship Struck By Missile In Friendly Fire Tragedy (Updated)
Wow. Pretty epic range control failure to make something like that happen. Initial look is that the ship is probably a CTL, but on the other hand, the IRIN has always had a very different view of "constructive total loss", mostly driven by difficulties in new construction (cf with the ship that got its keel broken during PRAYING MANTIS, yet continues to sail). However, support vessels like the HENDIJAN-class are not nearly as difficult to build, so maybe they will try and keep her?
Well whatever the cause, it's still sailors who have been killed at sea.
I wonder what went wrong in their range control too. Iran continues to amaze me with their work to restore ships that any other navy would consider as a CTL.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
If there were strong indications/information that this tanker transported drugs or other illegal stuff, than its understandable. But if not, then its maybe unnecessary to inspect ships in this spectacular way.
www.navalnews.com
Iranian forces overtake and board civilian tanker in Gulf of Oman - Naval News
Coalition Task Force (CTF) Sentinel, the operational arm of the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), monitored an incident involving Iranian forces who boarded a tanker in the international waters of the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, Aug 12.
www.navalnews.com
According to Baltic Shipping the Wila is a UAE owned ship wearing a Liberian flag of convenience. It is interesting that the UAE has just made a historic agreement with Israel and one of its ships gets boarded by the Iranians in international waters. Coincidence?If there were strong indications/information that this tanker transported drugs or other illegal stuff, than its understandable. But if not, then its maybe unnecessary to inspect ships in this spectacular way.
Iranian forces overtake and board civilian tanker in Gulf of Oman - Naval News
Coalition Task Force (CTF) Sentinel, the operational arm of the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), monitored an incident involving Iranian forces who boarded a tanker in the international waters of the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, Aug 12.
It appears that shortly after the US grabbed 4 Iranian tankers. This is retaliation in kind, similar in logic to what Iran did in the last round of "tanker wars" with the UK. This may become the new norm for enforcing freedom of navigation in the Hormuz. It's very unfortunate that Iran chose to make that move. They got the better of the situation last time, partially because I don't think their retaliation was expected, but by the speed and scale of the US reaction, that's obviously not the case now. And this time they initiated the exchange.
WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Seizes Iranian Fuel Cargo for First Time
The Trump administration confiscated vessels allegedly loaded with Iranian fuel in violation of sanctions, stepping up its campaign against Tehran.
www.wsj.com