The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

personaldesas said:
One could play devil’s advocate here and point to a handful of agreements about respecting each other’s territorial integrity: the UN Charter, Belovezha in 1991, Budapest in 1994, the 1997 Russia-Ukraine Friendship Treaty etc. So it seems reasonable to ask what would make the next agreement more reliable than the previous ones.

And I guess people wary of a peace deal could argue for Georgia in 2008 as an example of Russia not fully following through on an agreement. “Russia breaks every agreement” is overstating it IMHO, I’m not sure that thinking agreements of this sort are rock solid holds up either.
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you could say the same thing about the west, i don't even want to go into far history, we have the ex President of France and the ex chancellor of Germany admitting publicly that minsk 1 and 2 was a scam, they signed the agreement to allow Ukraine to prepare it self for war. don't know why they decided to acknowledge that is public, maybe they believed their own propaganda that Ukraine was winning. the problem is, how do you get Russia to trust in any other agreements? Russia will need to finish this war or Ukraine will have to agree to Russia terms. period. or this is war without end
 
swerve said:
There's plenty which could be talked about, but first, Russia has to show some willingness to make peace on terms less than total victory. And that's bloody easy to define: Russia has to be prepared to make concessions, not just reduce the extravagance of its demands.

Neither side currently believes that the preexisting (and current, by extension) security arrangements do or did what they were supposed to do. Obviously. One of the chief parties invaded & tried to conquer another party.

What is there to suggest that they will be looking to take more territory? They're demanding it, right now.

It can be true that noone is innocent, & also true that one party is chiefly to blame, & Russia's certainly chiefly to blame.
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the Russians believe that NATO is chiefly to blame. countless warnings about NATO expansion ignored, relentless efforts to regime change Russian friendly governments from the middle east to eastern Europe.

NATO and all their intelligence services need to pack up and leave Ukraine for peace to reign, in the absence of that, Ukraine will lose everything east of the Dnieper river including Odesa, if you are thinking Russia will stop so that what ever is left of Ukraine, will rearm, rebuild and remain a threat to Russia then you are not serious for peace
 
deyhere said:
you could say the same thing about the west, i don't even want to go into far history, we have the ex President of France and the ex chancellor of Germany admitting publicly that minsk 1 and 2 was a scam, they signed the agreement to allow Ukraine to prepare it self for war. don't know why they decided to acknowledge that is public, maybe they believed their own propaganda that Ukraine was winning. the problem is, how do you get Russia to trust in any other agreements? Russia will need to finish this war or Ukraine will have to agree to Russia terms. period. or this is war without end
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Even taking all of that at face value, none of it makes Russia any more reliable. If anything, the distrust you describe reinforces the concern that a peace deal would not hold.
 
vikingatespam said:
Are you actually claiming that NATO would instigate a ground invasion into Russia ?
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I absolutely believe dissolution of Russia is the ultimate interest of elites behind NATO. Whether it's by internal turmoil, ground invasion or something else. Those same elites already instigated ground invasions pretty much in the every corner of the world on pretexts like Sadam's WMD, so I don't see what stops them from doing so to Russia, once they had the opportunity. But it takes conditio sine qua non of Russia's nuclear deterrent being incapacitated.

And having country of approximately 1/3 of Russia's population as a vanguard on your side, along with some other eastern countries, would come in very handy in wearing out the enemy bashibozuk style until the main/elite western body jumps in to finish the battle. Under the guise of 'protection of one of newly formed ex Russian states against the other' or whatever the reason may be. Never too much trouble to make something up.
 
Kurgan said:
I absolutely believe dissolution of Russia is the ultimate interest of elites behind NATO. Whether it's by internal turmoil, ground invasion or something else. Those same elites already instigated ground invasions pretty much in the every corner of the world on pretexts like Sadam's WMD, so I don't see what stops them from doing so to Russia, once they had the opportunity. But it takes conditio sine qua non of Russia's nuclear deterrent being incapacitated.

And having country of approximately 1/3 of Russia's population as a vanguard on your side, along with some other eastern countries, would come in very handy in wearing out the enemy bashibozuk style until the main/elite western body jumps in to finish the battle. Under the guise of 'protection of one of newly formed ex Russian states against the other' or whatever the reason may be. Never too much trouble to make something up.
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Could you name who these "elites" are?
 
No need for NATO to do anything to Russia. Putin’s Ukraine debacle and Russian criminal elites are already ruining Russia. China will help itself to all of the resource rich east. Only NKorea will care about Russia’s ruin…maybe the Iranian Republican Guard (for a few minutes).
 
Kurgan said:
I absolutely believe dissolution of Russia is the ultimate interest of elites behind NATO. Whether it's by internal turmoil, ground invasion or something else. Those same elites already instigated ground invasions pretty much in the every corner of the world on pretexts like Sadam's WMD, so I don't see what stops them from doing so to Russia, once they had the opportunity. But it takes conditio sine qua non of Russia's nuclear deterrent being incapacitated.

And having country of approximately 1/3 of Russia's population as a vanguard on your side, along with some other eastern countries, would come in very handy in wearing out the enemy bashibozuk style until the main/elite western body jumps in to finish the battle. Under the guise of 'protection of one of newly formed ex Russian states against the other' or whatever the reason may be. Never too much trouble to make something up.
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I think this greatly overstates Russia’s place in Western priorities. Most Westerners would prefer a Russia they could trade with and otherwise spend very little time thinking about. For years, much of Europe was happy to buy Russian energy and carry on with its own affairs.

Wanting a country to stop invading its smaller neighbours is hardly the same as wanting to destroy it. If Moscow stopped giving those neighbours reasons to fear it, most people would happily turn their attention elsewhere.
 
personaldesas said:
I think this greatly overstates Russia’s place in Western priorities. Most Westerners would prefer a Russia they could trade with and otherwise spend very little time thinking about. For years, much of Europe was happy to buy Russian energy and carry on with its own affairs.

Wanting a country to stop invading its smaller neighbours is hardly the same as wanting to destroy it. If Moscow stopped giving those neighbours reasons to fear it, most people would happily turn their attention elsewhere.
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I don't have general businessmen or commoners on mind. But the ones at the very top, that have been pulling the strings for a long, long time. The descendants of those who financed communists living outside of Russia, prior to the 1917 Revolution, with the same idea of ruining the Russia (which communism succeeded for about a century).

And as I stated, the "invading the neighbors thing" is in Russian minds probably "Let's get them before they get us". Russia with Ukrainians included barely survived 2 great western invasions, both the greatest invasions yet in known history at the point. With Ukrainians on the other side now chances for the (inevitable in their minds) future go slim so let's take at least half Ukrainians with us and put that border at the huge Dnieper. That's how I see their logic. And as a matter of fact something like 70% of Ukrainians east of Dnieper wouldn't mind that much, at least that's how their voting pretty much went for years.
 
Kurgan said:
I don't have general businessmen or commoners on mind. But the ones at the very top, that have been pulling the strings for a long, long time. The descendants of those who financed communists living outside of Russia, prior to the 1917 Revolution, with the same idea of ruining the Russia (which communism succeeded for about a century).

And as I stated, the "invading the neighbors thing" is in Russian minds probably "Let's get them before they get us". Russia with Ukrainians included barely survived 2 great western invasions, both the greatest invasions yet in known history at the point. With Ukrainians on the other side now chances for the (inevitable in their minds) future go slim so let's take at least half Ukrainians with us and put that border at the huge Dnieper. That's how I see their logic. And as a matter of fact something like 70% of Ukrainians east of Dnieper wouldn't mind that much, at least that's how their voting pretty much went for years.
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Oh no! A multi-generational international conspiracy lasting well over 100 years . . . & you expect to be taken seriously? What next? The Protocols of the Elders of Zion?

What happened after the fall of the USSR? As soon as Russia had stabilised enough, western capitalists piled in en masse to make money. McDonalds, vendors of technology, consumer products, etc., investors in mining, oil, gas, retailing, & so on . . . All of them hoped for a stable, prosperous Russia, because those are the best conditions for making money, & they poured in billions of dollars, euros etc. Boeing & Airbus wanted peace & for Russia to make money, because selling airliners & then providing support for years is their main business. Bankers & the like wanted financial businesses in Russia. Same for very many other businesses. Huge sums were invested in pipelines to import gas from Russia, giving European countries a huge incentive to keep peace with Russia. Reportedly, that dependence on Russian gas emboldened Putin, because he thought it would make them unwilling to defend Ukraine. Ooops!

All of that & much more shows that you're talking absolute nonsense. Western 'elites', meaning the people with really serious amounts of money such as Jensen Huang, wanted to be able to sell to & buy from Russia profitably & bet a lot of money on that continuing, based on a politically stable & economically successful Russia. Why would they seek to throw all that away?

Or is this to do with the theory that there's a shadowy cabal of members of one religion pulling strings around the world?
 
swerve said:
There's plenty which could be talked about, but first, Russia has to show some willingness to make peace on terms less than total victory. And that's bloody easy to define: Russia has to be prepared to make concessions, not just reduce the extravagance of its demands.

Neither side currently believes that the preexisting (and current, by extension) security arrangements do or did what they were supposed to do. Obviously. One of the chief parties invaded & tried to conquer another party.

What is there to suggest that they will be looking to take more territory? They're demanding it, right now.

It can be true that noone is innocent, & also true that one party is chiefly to blame, & Russia's certainly chiefly to blame.
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But Russia had failed to achieve its goals, allegedly including subjugating all of Ukraine, puppet regime,, etc. This is another point where the narrative/messaging breaks down. We can't have it both ways and jump from one definition of failure/victory to the next, whichever one is convenient at any given time.

Kallas clearly believes that the current security arrangement is fine. She says so in the video she herself posted and I cited above. Some other Euros agree with that.

What is there to suggest that Russia will be looking to take more land after a peace agreement?

I agree with the your last paragraph.

More from Kallas:

IMG_7518.jpeg

It’s pretty clear what her negotiating position is. Which is why Russians say that they have nothing to talk about with Euros (the same is true the other way around?). Which is also why the likes of her will never see the looks of the room on the inside.

IMG_7519.jpeg

I don’t want to tap the sign again, but if the Americans did the same as Euros, Russia would be nearly thriving:

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Those ^ numbers exclude tens of billions more (I don’t know what the exact number is) from purchases via third countries. She can keep patting herself on the back while making completely ridiculous statements.

Here, about 3 minutes with ChatGPT:

IMG_7522.png
 
Kurgan said:
I don't have general businessmen or commoners on mind. But the ones at the very top, that have been pulling the strings for a long, long time. The descendants of those who financed communists living outside of Russia, prior to the 1917 Revolution, with the same idea of ruining the Russia (which communism succeeded for about a century).

And as I stated, the "invading the neighbors thing" is in Russian minds probably "Let's get them before they get us". Russia with Ukrainians included barely survived 2 great western invasions, both the greatest invasions yet in known history at the point. With Ukrainians on the other side now chances for the (inevitable in their minds) future go slim so let's take at least half Ukrainians with us and put that border at the huge Dnieper. That's how I see their logic. And as a matter of fact something like 70% of Ukrainians east of Dnieper wouldn't mind that much, at least that's how their voting pretty much went for years.
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How many countries have invaded Russia since the 2nd World War? How many countries has Russia invaded since then? Why are Russian's confused when European countries join NATO.
 
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