The US is a net exporter of diesel, importing 10 days supply will not have any effect on prices at the pump in the USA, no matter where it is purchased from.Quoting for continuity and adding:
View attachment 55827
Indeed, no one could have predicted that! Except…
This is a funny interpretation of the events that we had already somewhat discussed:
View attachment 55828
The author tries to show that there is no effect on diesel prices from the Ukrainian strikes. He is basically saying that Russian diesel does not matter. Even though the proposition is completely bonkers, let’s take a (very brief) closer look.
On his chart, Marc highlights the point in the middle of November, when Ukraine hit six RU refineries in a few days. Somehow - must be a miracle - diesel prices went down a couple of weeks later. Hmmm… Interesting, the lemming sense must be correct, there is no correlation! In reality, however, prices started going down because Russian exports of diesel began increasing and increased dramatically due to the drop in domestic demand and other factors, recording about 1 mbpd in December. Too far to dig or understand for this guy, but let’s continue.
So the price was gradually decreasing up until the middle of January or so for this very reason, until the Russian exports actually began to drop due to the ongoing Ukrainian strikes over the previous months. Eventually, the diesel price came back to… drum roll… the level we had seen before this Russian increase in seaborne exports. The chart illustrates this perfectly, in spite of being compressed (over the timeline) for propaganda purposes. It should be noted that there was no sudden price hike because there was no sudden shortage yet, information flows slowly (the exports volumes reports are not real-time info), there was uncertainty about the damage, repair times, etc, plenty of tankers were still at sea at any given time heading to their destination (or looking for one), softened demand, etc.
Then, at the end of February, Benjamin and Donald decided to wreck Iran, that, in turn, announced the Strait to be closed and sent some projectiles at the Gulf oil related infrastructure. Of course, market reacted immediately because, while Russian exports kept flowing at about 500 kbpd, the Gulf crisis was heading towards taking out nearly double that amount out of circulation in the near future - “the crisis we have not seen since the 1970s”. Lemming logic somehow can connect these events, weirdly distinguishing one diesel from another.
As things evolved, Benjamin and Donald (mostly Donald) had a revelation that things were not working out the way he thought they would, so tensions reduced, prices began to drop, naturally. Trump’s messaging, memorandum of understanding, and all that jazz.
Come mid or so June, speculation and Russian signalling about the potential diesel export ban (the direct result of the Ukrainian strikes) caused the upward pressure on diesel prices. This is still greatly illustrated in the chart that is not supposed to illustrate that. On July 8, shit hit the fan. The ban was implemented exactly on that day and strikes in the Middle East resumed, with blockade coming a week or so later.
View attachment 55825
View attachment 55826
Russian ban immediately and clearly, with utmost certainty, meant that over 400,000 barrels of diesel would disappear from the market in the near future. What was not certain was the longevity of the ban, though it was more or less predictable that, provided the UA strikes continued, the ban was to be extended to the end of the harvest season, even if there was marginal excess production. In other words, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries had a direct effect on the Russian diesel production capacity, which affected the volume of exports, which is directly (negatively) correlated with global diesel prices.
Someone should play around and build a chart where the effects on the US diesel price (as per the chart cited) of the Iran war were eliminated, while all else remained equal. Ideally, someone who can put aside their bias and has an understanding of causation and basic statistics. If I were to take a wild (though educated) guess, the total change in diesel price here was 30-40% effected by the RU exports and, naturally, 60-70% caused by the war with Iran. The correlation between the diesel prices and Russian exports would be nearly perfect.
The whole idea of differentiating between diesel that originates in Russia, Middle East or elsewhere is retarted. It is barrels that matter, not their origin (unless we want to expand the discussion to regional pricing an their dependency on Russia, Middle East, etc).
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
The US is a net exporter of diesel, importing 10 days supply will not have any effect on prices at the pump in the USA, no matter where it is purchased from.
well true its not the full story here. were it purchased from is likely to have a effect on many other factors that could indeed effect the price at the pump. outside the box this may seem like just another one of trumps stupid things done. its starting to look like one with real consequences both domesticly and abroad. and understandably so. after all the hits europ has taken in cutting off cheep energy
for the u.s to break the ranks it enforced over such a comparatively small impact is not going over well there. and domesticly there is actually republican backlash. any amount of uncertainty and change in markets policy is going to have likly negitive impacts at this point.
Last edited:
rsemmes
Active Member
I don't think aljazeera has any vested interests here, maybe theguardian has.
Ukrainian president accuses Washington of ‘denial of reality’.
US gave us no warning of Russian strikes on Kyiv power plants, Zelenskyy says.
www.theguardian.com
Why should the US give any warning, it is not its war. Is Russia getting any warning? Ukraine does not have the means, what 'reality'?
“Financial rewards for Putin -all of this only encourages him to keep attacking,” Zelenskyy posted on social media, urging the US to maintain pressure on Moscow.
www.aljazeera.com
The beggar urges, can he do anything?
Since the end of 2022, the largest importers of Russian oil products, which include diesel, have been Turkiye, China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Singapore. (Hungary is importing oil too.)
In September, EU countries imported 817 million euros ($918m) of pipeline gas, and 615 million euros ($691m) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to CREA. EU members France and the Netherlands were the largest LNG importers.
www.aljazeera.com
If not for Yemen, when are going to impose sanctions on S. Arabia for financing the Russian military effort? When is Ukraine going to start attacking French ships?
Paying for Ukraine is another headache for the Europeans. The 90-billion-euro ($101bn) loan the EU authorised in April might be exhausted well before the end of 2027. Some estimates suggest Kyiv would require an additional 70 billion euros ($79bn) for defence and civilian purposes in 2027.
That threatens to open a can of worms for EU member states, which are already negotiating the bloc’s 2028-2034 budget.
www.aljazeera.com
So, what is the situation on Russia, what is the situation of NATO and what is the situation of Ukraine? The real situation, not the wishful thinking situation.
Is any Western TV channel News starting with this facts? Who is in ‘denial of reality’?
How many Storm Shadows (the latest silver bullet that will win the war), when, to achieve what?
Ukraine has been able to stop the fall of Liman. Any counteroffensive against Kupiansk, Kostiantinivka, Orijiv or Stepnogirsk? Let's forget about Bajmut or Robotine.
The beggar hit Leningrad again... Victory!
NATO has printed that it is in its benefit to keep Ukraine "in the fight". Is it in Ukraine's benefit to keep being destroyed, to add corpses to the pile? Does Zelenski fear that he will be shot in the head if he tries to negotiate from Ukraine's real situation, a bankrupt, destroyed country artificially maintained in life support?
I cannot see the factor that is going to change the future, anyone?
Ukrainian president accuses Washington of ‘denial of reality’.
US gave us no warning of Russian strikes on Kyiv power plants, Zelenskyy says.
US gave us no warning of Russian strikes on Kyiv power plants, Zelenskyy says
Ukrainian president accuses Washington of ‘denial of reality’ in ongoing row with Trump over apparent support for Moscow
www.theguardian.com
“Financial rewards for Putin -all of this only encourages him to keep attacking,” Zelenskyy posted on social media, urging the US to maintain pressure on Moscow.
Rubio says Ukraine without access to Starshield, future ‘under discussion’
Top US diplomat says Ukraine has requested access to military-grade version of Starlink for strikes deep inside Russia.
Since the end of 2022, the largest importers of Russian oil products, which include diesel, have been Turkiye, China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Singapore. (Hungary is importing oil too.)
In September, EU countries imported 817 million euros ($918m) of pipeline gas, and 615 million euros ($691m) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to CREA. EU members France and the Netherlands were the largest LNG importers.
Trump eases Russia oil sanctions, but is Europe still buying Moscow’s gas?
Analysts say Russia will benefit most from US sanctions waiver.
Paying for Ukraine is another headache for the Europeans. The 90-billion-euro ($101bn) loan the EU authorised in April might be exhausted well before the end of 2027. Some estimates suggest Kyiv would require an additional 70 billion euros ($79bn) for defence and civilian purposes in 2027.
That threatens to open a can of worms for EU member states, which are already negotiating the bloc’s 2028-2034 budget.
Ukraine and Europe have little choice but to work with Trump
Despite growing tensions over Russia, Kyiv and European leaders remain dependent on US support.
Is any Western TV channel News starting with this facts? Who is in ‘denial of reality’?
How many Storm Shadows (the latest silver bullet that will win the war), when, to achieve what?
Ukraine has been able to stop the fall of Liman. Any counteroffensive against Kupiansk, Kostiantinivka, Orijiv or Stepnogirsk? Let's forget about Bajmut or Robotine.
The beggar hit Leningrad again... Victory!
NATO has printed that it is in its benefit to keep Ukraine "in the fight". Is it in Ukraine's benefit to keep being destroyed, to add corpses to the pile? Does Zelenski fear that he will be shot in the head if he tries to negotiate from Ukraine's real situation, a bankrupt, destroyed country artificially maintained in life support?
I cannot see the factor that is going to change the future, anyone?
rsemmes
Active Member
Zelenskyy said he had offered to stop Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries – a key Trump demand – if the US provided Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors.
“There can be nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in Oslo.
US has resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine about Russian strikes, says Zelenskyy
Zelenski seems to be lowering his expectations and, at the same time, he is the only one who pretends not to know that in the war of Ukraine the only irrelevant opinion is that of... Ukraine.
No one found that factor that is going to change the future,or, at least, no one shared it here.
One factor that may change the future is Russia sending 600,000 (reservists or conscripts) more men, it is not going to happen, towards Kiev, just to get the city within shelling distance and block Kaniv and Cherkasi, creating an even worse situation for Ukrainian economy and a bottleneck for its supplies; it's not that they have that many locomotives to spare.
Just one option open to Russia, not to Ukraine. I am talking of old style war, tanks and artillery. Ukraine cannot send its veterans north, moving troops there will allow the Southern Russian Army to advance; it happened before.
Another factor is that if NATO stops funding Ukraine, that is immediate defeat, for the army and, more importantly, for the country. That is not going to happen, but it may happen in 2027 and there is nothing Ukraine can do about it. Zelenski may beg, shout or cry, it is irrelevant.
“There can be nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in Oslo.
US has resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine about Russian strikes, says Zelenskyy
Zelenski seems to be lowering his expectations and, at the same time, he is the only one who pretends not to know that in the war of Ukraine the only irrelevant opinion is that of... Ukraine.
No one found that factor that is going to change the future,or, at least, no one shared it here.
One factor that may change the future is Russia sending 600,000 (reservists or conscripts) more men, it is not going to happen, towards Kiev, just to get the city within shelling distance and block Kaniv and Cherkasi, creating an even worse situation for Ukrainian economy and a bottleneck for its supplies; it's not that they have that many locomotives to spare.
Just one option open to Russia, not to Ukraine. I am talking of old style war, tanks and artillery. Ukraine cannot send its veterans north, moving troops there will allow the Southern Russian Army to advance; it happened before.
Another factor is that if NATO stops funding Ukraine, that is immediate defeat, for the army and, more importantly, for the country. That is not going to happen, but it may happen in 2027 and there is nothing Ukraine can do about it. Zelenski may beg, shout or cry, it is irrelevant.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #15,405
This is not a realistic scenario. Last time it took ~3 months of Russia to mobilize half of that amount, and quite a bit more time to train them. Moreover it's one thing to absorb 300 000 fresh recruits, this is double that amount. Even if they have the equipment to outfit them all, and that's a big "if", it would still require quite a bit of time to get trained leadership and specialist roles to effectively organize a force of this size. Realistically Ukraine would have ample advance warning this is happening, the resource costs to Russia would be immense, domestic political and potentially even international political issues would most certainly arise, and in the end it's not clear how much this would actually help. It's not that it can't be done, but long before it comes a factor we would know that it's going to become a factor.
rsemmes
Active Member
For that reason I posted: "It is not going to happen."
But now I have one question...
Russia has a conscript Army, I don't know how many times a year nor when recruits are called in, but deploying 300,000 men in active (let's say after 3 months training) units between Mamai and Svesk and then reinforcing them... Yes, it is not going to happen, the resources, the expenses, the ammo, the political cost... when Russia is already fighting a war. My point, the factor, is what can Ukraine do to oppose that?
Russia can escalate, Ukraine cannot, or every Ukrainian escalation would get an stronger escalation, like those "40 days"; Ukraine is now in a worse situation than before the 40 days.
Istanbul, Anchorage and Abu Dhabi, is Ukraine in a better position with its scalations?
I am just reading that there is going to be another Abu Dhabi.
Some time ago in this war it was about artillery and the Russian advantage of about eight to one and that Ukraine did not have enough shells ,now it is with drones hunting artillery beyond their firing range ,artillery taking more than a few shots without hiding being hunted by such drones .
Im not suggesting the days of tubed artillery is over but an estimated 90 percent of Russian casualties can be put to drones and even mortar operators being taken off and to learn to operate drones instead ,that Russia is placing its new tanks to face N.A.T.O opposite Finland or in restocking its tank lots instead of commiting to the war ( looks good for May day next year for a change) is there an authentic neutral source that can document the differences in how the war has changed in its operations?
In a side note these tank farms withe new t-90m ,s and IFV can be seen by satellite to be out in the open no cope cages or such and well within drone attack range, curious
Im not suggesting the days of tubed artillery is over but an estimated 90 percent of Russian casualties can be put to drones and even mortar operators being taken off and to learn to operate drones instead ,that Russia is placing its new tanks to face N.A.T.O opposite Finland or in restocking its tank lots instead of commiting to the war ( looks good for May day next year for a change) is there an authentic neutral source that can document the differences in how the war has changed in its operations?
In a side note these tank farms withe new t-90m ,s and IFV can be seen by satellite to be out in the open no cope cages or such and well within drone attack range, curious
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I would think that the net returns would be largely negative. It’s not like they launch a drone and it hits the target, or launch ten drones and 3 hit the target; more like launch hundreds and very few hit the target. Moreover, the tanks are replaceable and carry little value to be hit at the storage bases, which is why they are being sent to the storage to begin with.
The first time I saw reports of storage space starting to fill back up was before the May parade of 2025. Before last parade, some of it was already full. I’ll try to find the first mention that I saw of each (starting to fill and full), but can’t promise anything as quick search just now didn’t return the results (I it have in bookmarks, I am 100% sure, but need to find a way to find it - weird, I know, lol).
24 Zyrcons? Were they stashing all the time or production ramped up? Or both?
* On the satellites side, I believe those are mostly only rebranded Euros (like Flamingo rockets) rather than Ukrainian. Ukrainian indigenous tech level is unfortunately a weak 80s car like Tavria.
Btw I am new to the forum. Nice to meet you everyone
I almost forgot - anyone following what is happening in Zaporozhye sector? While Orekhov as the last fort of the famous southern line is still holding, there are reports emerging of Russian DRGs reaching outskirts of the city itself last days.
rsemmes
Active Member
Maps have been posted, just read old posts.24 Zyrcons? Were they stashing all the time or production ramped up? Or both?
* On the satellites side, I believe those are mostly only rebranded Euros (like Flamingo rockets) rather than Ukrainian. Ukrainian indigenous tech level is unfortunately a weak 80s car like Tavria.
Btw I am new to the forum. Nice to meet you everyone
I almost forgot - anyone following what is happening in Zaporozhye sector? While Orekhov as the last fort of the famous southern line is still holding, there are reports emerging of Russian DRGs reaching outskirts of the city itself last days.
I don't think we (UK) have a Tunnel School of Warfare...
The Ukrainian soldiers crawled 15km through tunnels – without communication, GPS or light – having developed their own navigation and life-support technologies in advance. About 100 Russians were killed in the operation, and 30 taken prisoner, the Khartia corps said.
Russia bombards Kyiv with missiles hours after agreeing to resume talks with Ukraine
Experts say Russia is trying to destroy energy infrastructure before winter and US ‘appeasement and flattery’ will not achieve peace
www.theguardian.com
"Zelenskyy said the latest devastating strikes showed that Russia was not serious about peace."
Then, in his “acknowledged the reality”, every Ukrainian strike shows that Ukraine is not serious about peace.
rsemmes
Active Member
First, I keep using NATO as a general term. Australia, for example, was not in the planning of the NATO offensive of 2023, AFAIK, but did contribute.
I am going to understand what a peace agreement would look like. "Peace" should look like the same as in France, not the best example, or in Norway; unless you think that there is an anomaly (other than war) in Ukraine and "peace" should be something different in that country. Even more important, I would say, what will a peace agreement for Ukraine look like in November 2028, has any money been promised for 2028?
Russia will take a chunk of Ukraine and Crimea, with or without international recognition (Crimea, better with, that would be leverage; NATO's leverage, not Ukrainian leverage.
Maybe in 10 years Donbas would be a truly independent (but still dependent on Russia) republic. Anyone thinks that a war exhausted Donbas could survive on its own tomorrow?
Ukraine will "never" join NATO, no foreign troops in Ukraine. Ukraine will take whatever guarantees NATO wants to offer, now or in 2028.
Russia will annex the land corridor, except whatever goes to Donbas; we are not in Istanbul.
Some other minor border corrections, useful to negotiate, but not really important.
In short, whatever Russia wants and NATO wants to offer in exchange; Ukraine can cry or shout but cannot exert any real pressure. Beggars can't be choosers and Ukraine without NATO's money is done.
Then, a sovereign, corrupt Ukraine may join (hopefully not, we may rejoin it) the EU and Ukraine will be the "opportunity of the century". It will certainly be for some of Zelenki's cronies, Trump got his cut already and more than a few companies will make very good reconstruction profits there. NATO will foot the bill, I think, but has any money been promised or we just have estimates?
Yes, a callous approach, but I cannot read anything about a rosy future and I am not in the wishful thinking flow.
In a couple of days I will be talking about this Ukrainian future:
Donald Trump has sold out Ukraine. He makes appeaser Chamberlain look like a man of iron principle | Simon Tisdall
Europe’s leaders can no longer trust a word that comes out of Washington. No more slaps on the wrist – we need concrete steps to punish Trump, says Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall
www.theguardian.com
Thanks! I did browse several pages in order not to annoy people by asking posted/obvious stuff, yet it seems maps were buried a bit deeper.Maps have been posted, just read old posts.
I don't think we (UK) have a Tunnel School of Warfare...
The Ukrainian soldiers crawled 15km through tunnels – without communication, GPS or light – having developed their own navigation and life-support technologies in advance. About 100 Russians were killed in the operation, and 30 taken prisoner, the Khartia corps said.
But soon.Russia bombards Kyiv with missiles hours after agreeing to resume talks with Ukraine
Experts say Russia is trying to destroy energy infrastructure before winter and US ‘appeasement and flattery’ will not achieve peace
"Zelenskyy said the latest devastating strikes showed that Russia was not serious about peace."
Then, in his “acknowledged the reality”, every Ukrainian strike shows that Ukraine is not serious about peace.
As far as Ukrainian independent abilities, they certainly have a great potential, especially with that strong basic Soviet education, yet their country was so devastated with post-Soviet corruption and Soviet state of mind (which annuls the stuff they did with the education) that their own tech knowledge remained at a very low level. I remember some years ago, Ukraine did overhaul of Croatian Mig-21s, and several fell soon after. So they weren't even able to properly overhaul mid Cold War jet anymore.
So now that funds are pouring in and war actually pushed them to do the best they can, they are actually developing some stuff,not just tech but tactics included.
Yet they are still most heavily dependent of western development.
Russia is comparable, up to a point. Although they are much more developed in terms of war tech than Ukraine pound for pound, their corruption (and the Soviet state of mind) is huge too and now faced with the pressure of combined western economies and direct involvement of reconnaissance/intelligence parts of war machinery and military industry, terrible leaks started to show especially in the early stages of the war, leading to catastrophes like Ukrainian Kharkov offensive, Prigozhin's coup and eventual removals even of such dinosaurs like Sergei Shoigu.
Yet with Russia, while stuff happening on the frontlines and front offices is more of less known, what is probably unknown to the western general public is what they started doing under the hood with the corruption issue. As I am based in Balkans, I see that more or less on local forums since a number of people actually travel and work in Russia and have previous connections.
The thing is corruption arrests in Russia seem to be at historic high right now. Almost entire Shoigu's cabinet is under the lock and that is the old news. While Shoigu himself was "promoted", but to a ceremonial position where he can't pull the strings anymore. I guess putting cuffs on a person who was in Putin's vicinity for all that years would put shame on Putin himself too so they decided they won't cut him, but will constrain him.
So high official arrests are almost weekly news now, generals, governors, ex governors, mayors, their deputies etc. Moreover, there is a government program "Time of Heroes" in Russia where they take war vets and train them to take over governing positions. I don't know the details, I just know "Struna",the guy with the red bag, was one of the participants. And in recent elections he was Putin's party candidate. Also big shots in economy are now forced to invest money in Russian economy directly rather than in foreign assets, or I guess window stools on 10th floor become too slippery. Accidents happen... One of the results is Lada having domestic ABS now... and ESP, airbgas and laser welding. And last but not the least, their Rassvet satelites are made by a - private company. Comrade Stalin is probably shaking in his grave, but it seems Russiahas finally realized it's a complete desovietization, or demise.
personaldesas
Active Member
Alright, that's enough rsemmes for me
When I asked what peace for Ukraine ,you stated Ukraine was not serious about peace , It has been Russia that has legalised annexing territory into Russia .Russia then made claims that Ukraine is populted by Nazi,s as this justification, This does remind me of Hitlers call for Lebensraum as a justification of seizing land. the claims of corruption are interesting when international indexes of corruption certainly show Russia in a worse position so I would doubt there is going to be any attempt to address such in Ukraine. It is staggering to view the claim that Ukraine is not serious about peace if it does not make significant territorial concessions and concessions about its its ongoing independance ,If Russia wants Ukraine to be some sort of vassal state be open about it, certainly Hitler,s nazi state had those too
He means surrender, whatever he posts or writes he simply means surrender.
rsemmes
Active Member
No.
Before you asked I used Zelinki's “acknowledged the reality” to point out that, according to his own words (Zelinki's, not mine), Ukraine is not serious about peace.
If you want to go for History, a lot of people is, and has been, claiming a lot of things. Hitler didn't claim the Manifest Destiny, Hitler didn't claim the Monroe Doctrine. Israel is in Lebanon, S. Arabia in Yemen, the US is bombing Iran (not right now), any claims there?
Maybe you noticed that I didn't say that Russia is not a corrupt state; we all take that for granted. Maybe you noticed that I mentioned the UK joining the EU again.
"Ukraine is not serious about peace if it does not make significant territorial concessions." Where did you notice that, in "what a peace agreement would look like"? Ukraine is at the receiving end, Ukraine will make concessions, I see that as a logical conclusion. Looking at the situation today, and answering what I think, as I explained, was your question, that is, IMO, what a peace agreement would look like.
I also think that you misread or purposely misread my post.
rsemmes
Active Member
Russia has taken the northern border area, 23/10/26...
or not, 20/10/26.
blackbirdgroup.fi
Is this another lapsus linguae? Is Ukraine going to deny it in the next 24 hours?
"The EU and its member states are paying for 80% of Ukraine’s financial needs, according to the European Commission."
www.theguardian.com
"The EU last year agreed a €90bn loan for Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of Kyiv’s funding in 2026 and 2027."
So, 66%. At the beginning of the year it was only 40% for 2026. I will read between the lines that Ukraine's situation is getting worse, it is not improving its negotiating position; and, still, nothing for 2028.
The US was paying 80% of the Indochina War when France left. No surrender, BTW.
or not, 20/10/26.
Russo-Ukrainian War Map — Black Bird Group
A regularly updated front-line map of the war in Ukraine, maintained as a public product.
Is this another lapsus linguae? Is Ukraine going to deny it in the next 24 hours?
"The EU and its member states are paying for 80% of Ukraine’s financial needs, according to the European Commission."
EU leaders to press Burnham to pay more towards Ukraine’s defence
Officials will call on UK to ‘step up’ financial support at Brussels summit – with post-Brexit issues also on agenda
www.theguardian.com
So, 66%. At the beginning of the year it was only 40% for 2026. I will read between the lines that Ukraine's situation is getting worse, it is not improving its negotiating position; and, still, nothing for 2028.
The US was paying 80% of the Indochina War when France left. No surrender, BTW.