The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

But it still happened, and was followed up by numerous attacks on grain ships was it not? Didn't Russia embargo grain shipments?

When did it embargo grain (or any other, for that matter) shipments? I think that was the subject of the debate?

I asked an AI to analyse your posts, and mine as it happens. Definitely interesting reading it found your use of Potapych in your nick to be quite telling.

And what’s so “telling” about it?

While it is pretty dumb, I’ll play. Only one question/task to Grok, without any prior subject history (won’t able to do that again, haha; though I guess I did not ask any follow up questions):

If you look at all active (say, 10+ posts) users in The Russian-Ukrainian War thread at [insert link], can you put all these forum members into groups of pro-side, neutral, etc?

Answer in its entirety





All those who think they are in the wrong group, direct your concerns and questions to Grok. Laughing. Those who think they are unfairly missing from the list, the same applies (no idea why it included some but not others).

To repeat, I think this is dumb (and irrelevant).

Definitely put a perspective on both of us, I did a few others at the same time , it's very very good at spotting things

Is it very good?

What would that perspective be?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

When did it embargo grain (or any other, for that matter) shipments? I think that was the subject of the debate?


And what’s so “telling” about it?

While it is pretty dumb, I’ll play. Only one question/task to Grok, without any prior subject history (won’t able to do that again, haha; though I guess I did not ask any follow up questions):

If you look at all active (say, 10+ posts) users in The Russian-Ukrainian War thread at [insert link], can you put all these forum members into groups of pro-side, neutral, etc?

Answer in its entirety

View attachment 55743

View attachment 55742

All those who think they are in the wrong group, direct your concerns and questions to Grok. Laughing. Those who think they are unfairly missing from the list, the same applies (no idea why it included some but not others).

To repeat, I think this is dumb (and irrelevant).


Is it very good?

What would that perspective be?

AI-programs are not always wright, sometimes giving questionable statements/answers or are even totally wrong. But it this case, it gives a quite correct/accurate overview, i think.

 

[Vanquish]

When did it embargo grain (or any other, for that matter) shipments? I think that was the subject of the debate?


And what’s so “telling” about it?

While it is pretty dumb, I’ll play. Only one question/task to Grok, without any prior subject history (won’t able to do that again, haha; though I guess I did not ask any follow up questions):

If you look at all active (say, 10+ posts) users in The Russian-Ukrainian War thread at [insert link], can you put all these forum members into groups of pro-side, neutral, etc?

Answer in its entirety

View attachment 55743

View attachment 55742

All those who think they are in the wrong group, direct your concerns and questions to Grok. Laughing. Those who think they are unfairly missing from the list, the same applies (no idea why it included some but not others).

To repeat, I think this is dumb (and irrelevant).


Is it very good?

What would that perspective be?

I'm amazed that you somehow found a way to make Grok say that you're neutral, that is a laugh alright. Going back to the beginning of this thread you mentioned you had Russian relatives and if I remember your wife spoke Russian as you are also able to. I don't care about any of that though because were're all in our corners on this war which is natural. I just don't pretend to be neutral.

 

[KipPotapych]

I'm amazed that you somehow found a way to make Grok say that you're neutral, that is a laugh alright. Going back to the beginning of this thread you mentioned you had Russian relatives and if I remember your wife spoke Russian as you are also able to. I don't care about any of that though because were're all in our corners on this war which is natural. I just don't pretend to be neutral.

Elon is my friend. I asked him to make appropriate adjustments to the code so that I could convince three (?) people on the Defence Talk forum that I am not pro-Russian.

Or… maybe Grok is pro-Russian, as is my good friend Elon.

My wife does not speak Russian. The only thing, I think (and still a question mark), I mentioned about her here is that she speaks Hebrew (had a discussion with Big Z (whatever happened to him?) in the ME thread). Never said anything else about her. But yes, she does not speak Russian, has nothing to do with Russia, and has never been to Russia (or within 2,500+ km from it, as far as I know). Moreover, she has an anti-Russia mindset, which is ill-informed, I should note (how could I not?!).

My kids do not speak Russian either. It was never a priority for me. Children in Canada should speak English and French, which my kids do, because that was a priority. The older one used to understand everything I would tell her in Russian (what a normal kid in that age group would understand, obviously) up to the age of about… maybe 3 or 4. Used to say “da” instead of yes until about that age too. Never yes. “No” was just a “no”. Never spoke Russian though. Weird how that works. Have a friend who speaks to his kid exclusively in French, she is now… 4, I think. “Doesn’t speak” a word of French, but communication between the two is perfectly fine (as it was in my case, though I spoke more English than Russian). She will certainly speak French because this is an ongoing thing. The ship had sailed for my kids long ago though because, frankly, nobody cares whether they speak Russian or not. The oldest wants to learn though.

I said on several occasions that I can read the Russian and Ukrainian media. That had never been a secret. I also posted very recently in the other thread that I am currently reading Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment in Russian (about 1/3 left now) and posted a photo of the book even. Kind of a give away! But I sure am thankful I have the luxury to read it as “god intended”. Gave a recommendation for Master and Margarita too for those who cannot read it in the original language (the intent of the post to begin with). Some of my posts had included words in Russian to emphasize a point. If you do not read, I cannot help you with that. Is my Russian as good as an average person living in Russia? Almost certainly not. But it is sufficient for my needs.

I have relatives in Russia (very few). I also have relatives in Ukraine (very few and “less related”). Have friends and acquaintances in and from both countries too. Have nothing to do with either of the countries myself beyond that though. Since my Russian is much better than my Ukrainian, most of the Ukrainians have no issues speaking with me in Russian (some know worse Ukrainian than I do), while they do with others. Some do, of course, have issues, but that is their issues and I couldn’t care less (we still manage to communicate if desired).

Anything else you would like to know? More about my wife, perhaps?

Funny thing… Not that long ago at all (a month or two ago?) I posted here about lemmings’ campaign against Mark Galeotti. They obviously went for the wife, who is an Armenian, born in Moscow. This is a “normal” pattern, for whatever reason. I don’t know why, my mind doesn’t work like that, I guess. But funny nonetheless.

Anyway, let me know if this helps.

PS As I mentioned here numerous times previously, I genuinely do not care what anyone here (or elsewhere, for that matter) thinks about me. Just like I do not care if anyone is pro-insert name. Labeling is idiotic, unless self-inflicted. It is about being able to argue about/against the proposition someone makes. The rest is a waste of bytes and time. Such as this post, for example.

 

[personaldesas]

When did it embargo grain (or any other, for that matter) shipments? I think that was the subject of the debate?


And what’s so “telling” about it?

While it is pretty dumb, I’ll play. Only one question/task to Grok, without any prior subject history (won’t able to do that again, haha; though I guess I did not ask any follow up questions):

If you look at all active (say, 10+ posts) users in The Russian-Ukrainian War thread at [insert link], can you put all these forum members into groups of pro-side, neutral, etc?

Answer in its entirety

View attachment 55743

View attachment 55742

All those who think they are in the wrong group, direct your concerns and questions to Grok. Laughing. Those who think they are unfairly missing from the list, the same applies (no idea why it included some but not others).

To repeat, I think this is dumb (and irrelevant).


Is it very good?

What would that perspective be?

I take offense that you'd put me in the same category as Beltrami2005

 

[rsemmes]

Again, business first...

Fuel from South Korea being shipped to Russia as Ukraine war grinds on

Exclusive: Guardian analysis finds more than 150,000 tonnes of fuel was shipped to Russian ports in July and August, some using sanctioned tankers

www.theguardian.com

My educated guess is that some of those oil products will go to the Russian Army (SK is actively supporting the Russian invasion), Ukraine can start sinking those ships...
“A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Turkiye,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media.

Ukraine says Russian drone attack sinks ship in Romanian waters

The latest suspected incursion on NATO's eastern flank increases fears that the war in Ukraine threatens to spill over.

www.aljazeera.com

...Because they will never be "horrific strikes".

An escalation in Russia's drone and missile strikes this summer destroyed factories and warehouses across Ukraine, damaged ports and railways, and forced shops and businesses to close, slowing the growth of the economy and tax revenue.
Ukrainian officials met European partners in Brussels last week to discuss bringing forward disbursements due next year under a €90-billion EU loan.
Accelerating these payments risked increasing budget pressure next year - at a time when looming election campaigns in European allies including France and Poland could erode support for Kyiv.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-scrambles-money-fight-war-russian-strikes-batter-economy-2026-10-05/

Robbing Paul to pay Peter seems to be the no-future for Ukraine.

Still, that is talking about money, I am surprised that I cannot find anything about those 27.000 casualties mentioned in the Polish Parliament. It doesn't exist in lemonde/theguardian/elpais nor in the BBC/CNN, not even to be questioned or refuted; no one seems to be interested in investigating that.
Ukraine issued and official denial so, every time Russia issues an official denial all Ukrainian claims immediately turn into rubbish. There was a sudden spike in Russian total casualties, but we were happy with that one. The Five O'clock Follies are only "follies" depending on what side of the hill they are coming from?
Is that an "uncharitable reading" of western media or am I missing D. Ellsberg?

 

[rsemmes]

I take offense that you'd (or your AI) put me in the same category as Beltrami2005

"Often read as pro-Russian".
If you want to get personal...

 

[personaldesas]

To repeat, I think this is dumb (and irrelevant).

I kinda agree, but it’s also fun.
What stood out to me was the assumption that being "pro"-something means you can’t be analytical about it. I mean, you might be pro-something, like nuclear power, precisely because you’ve weighed the evidence. Taking a side can be the result of analysis.

 

[Vanquish]

Elon is my friend. I asked him to make appropriate adjustments to the code so that I could convince three (?) people on the Defence Talk forum that I am not pro-Russian.

Or… maybe Grok is pro-Russian, as is my good friend Elon.

My wife does not speak Russian. The only thing, I think (and still a question mark), I mentioned about her here is that she speaks Hebrew (had a discussion with Big Z (whatever happened to him?) in the ME thread). Never said anything else about her. But yes, she does not speak Russian, has nothing to do with Russia, and has never been to Russia (or within 2,500+ km from it, as far as I know). Moreover, she has an anti-Russia mindset, which is ill-informed, I should note (how could I not?!).

My kids do not speak Russian either. It was never a priority for me. Children in Canada should speak English and French, which my kids do, because that was a priority. The older one used to understand everything I would tell her in Russian (what a normal kid in that age group would understand, obviously) up to the age of about… maybe 3 or 4. Used to say “da” instead of yes until about that age too. Never yes. “No” was just a “no”. Never spoke Russian though. Weird how that works. Have a friend who speaks to his kid exclusively in French, she is now… 4, I think. “Doesn’t speak” a word of French, but communication between the two is perfectly fine (as it was in my case, though I spoke more English than Russian). She will certainly speak French because this is an ongoing thing. The ship had sailed for my kids long ago though because, frankly, nobody cares whether they speak Russian or not. The oldest wants to learn though.

I said on several occasions that I can read the Russian and Ukrainian media. That had never been a secret. I also posted very recently in the other thread that I am currently reading Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment in Russian (about 1/3 left now) and posted a photo of the book even. Kind of a give away! But I sure am thankful I have the luxury to read it as “god intended”. Gave a recommendation for Master and Margarita too for those who cannot read it in the original language (the intent of the post to begin with). Some of my posts had included words in Russian to emphasize a point. If you do not read, I cannot help you with that. Is my Russian as good as an average person living in Russia? Almost certainly not. But it is sufficient for my needs.

I have relatives in Russia (very few). I also have relatives in Ukraine (very few and “less related”). Have friends and acquaintances in and from both countries too. Have nothing to do with either of the countries myself beyond that though. Since my Russian is much better than my Ukrainian, most of the Ukrainians have no issues speaking with me in Russian (some know worse Ukrainian than I do), while they do with others. Some do, of course, have issues, but that is their issues and I couldn’t care less (we still manage to communicate if desired).

Anything else you would like to know? More about my wife, perhaps?

Funny thing… Not that long ago at all (a month or two ago?) I posted here about lemmings’ campaign against Mark Galeotti. They obviously went for the wife, who is an Armenian, born in Moscow. This is a “normal” pattern, for whatever reason. I don’t know why, my mind doesn’t work like that, I guess. But funny nonetheless.

Anyway, let me know if this helps.

PS As I mentioned here numerous times previously, I genuinely do not care what anyone here (or elsewhere, for that matter) thinks about me. Just like I do not care if anyone is pro-insert name. Labeling is idiotic, unless self-inflicted. It is about being able to argue about/against the proposition someone makes. The rest is a waste of bytes and time. Such as this post, for example.

As I said, I don't care if your pro Russian or not. I've not hidden the fact that I'm clearly on Ukraine's side. I've said all along that I think the war is stupid and I hate people dying needlessly on both sides and before @rsemmes chimes in, I also think the Iran war is stupid.

 

[rsemmes]

As I said, I don't care if your pro Russian or not. I've not hidden the fact that I'm clearly on Ukraine's side. I've said all along that I think the war is stupid and I hate people dying needlessly on both sides and before @rsemmes chimes in, I also think the Iran war is stupid.

I'm afraid you're missing the point.
Every government always thought that war is great, the right tool to solve issues. Politics by other means, always.

 

[vikingatespam]

View attachment 55743

View attachment 55742

That "AI" is good enough to contextualize large numbers of posts is both scary and interesting.

 

[rsemmes]

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.47295955045512%2C37.07241793973056&z=13

That is a huge advance (infiltration) north in the city.
That could be like Ukraine losing the city immediately (meaning like in 2 weeks), if it doesn't start counterattacking. Or another flash in pan and one or both flanks are not as secure as they look.
Russia has been pushing in that area for a while, maybe it has enough troops.

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

In Dobropolye (sp?) the russians followed the proper strategy instead of what they did in Krasny Liman. It should eventually fall. Personally, I don't understand why the ukrainians don't face bigger manpower problems at this point.

 

[Feanor]

In Dobropolye (sp?) the russians followed the proper strategy instead of what they did in Krasny Liman.

Certain Russian commands are known for this. We saw in in Toretsk, then Kupyansk, and now in Krasniy Liman. West MD seems to be the worst about it.

It should eventually fall. Personally, I don't understand why the ukrainians don't face bigger manpower problems at this point.

They stepped up mobilization efforts in Kiev and other areas to get more people in. It mitigated the issues somewhat. Also Russia has somewhat slowed down. Again the big question is whether they're burning through a crop of recruits they amassed or if their current losses are sustainable.

 

[Vivendi]

I am proudly pro-Ukrainian. russia is a terrorist nation, targeting civilians (Kherson "human safari", etc). They have committed numerous war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere. They torture prisoners. They rape kids. They should leave Ukraine and respect Ukraine's borders. If russia stops fighting and pull their forces out of all occupied territories the war will end immediately. If Ukraine stops fighting, we will see more massacres, more torture and rape, and full occupation of Ukraine. After that, what would be next? Perhaps the rest of Georgia, or Moldova.

I find it difficult to understand that anybody living in Europe or North America can be "neutral" in the brutal war started and kept running by russia, and russia only. russian leaders are monsters, as are many of the soldiers committing war crimes every week in Ukraine.

I hope European countries will increase military and financial support for Ukraine, before it's too late. We cannot let fascist russia win this brutal, unprovoked war. It would be immoral, unethical, and also cause long term security threats to the rest of Europe. russia will not stop their brutal invasions and imperialist dreams until stopped by force.

Some still blame this on NATO; may I remind you: russia was invited to a close collaboration with NATO after the end of the cold war. In addition, European NATO countries stopped investing in defense after the cold war, leading to the armed NATO forces to weaken considerably. Only russians can consider these actions to be "threatening". Of course it's just russian propaganda to claim that NATO was a threat to russia. It simply was not, and the evidence is there for all who wants to see. russia responded to this by: using the invitations into NATO to spy on NATO; started disinformation campaigns in Europe intending to weaken democracies, "hybrid war" including cyberattacks and sabotage, pretending to be "peaceful" while rebuilding their armed forces, and when strong enough launching attacks in Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and Ukraine again in 2022. Only after these events did Western Europe "wake up" and start to re-arm. Western Europe made a huge mistake in trusting russia after the end of the cold war. No we need to urgently re-arm, and increase support for Ukraine.

Slava Ukraini!

 

[Vivendi]

Meanwhile in Russia: decorated state TV host Vladimir Solovyov outlined Russia's short-term and long-range goals. Yes, he is decorated. Yes, this is russian state TV.

https://t.co/9KRe3yX5un

Another snippet: Twitter link

Again; how can people be "neutral" to a fascist, imperialist state like this?

 

[rsemmes]

I am proudly pro-Ukrainian. russia is a terrorist nation, targeting civilians (Kherson "human safari", etc). They have committed numerous war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere. They torture prisoners. They rape kids. They should leave Ukraine and respect Ukraine's borders. If russia stops fighting and pull their forces out of all occupied territories the war will end immediately. If Ukraine stops fighting, we will see more massacres, more torture and rape, and full occupation of Ukraine. After that, what would be next? Perhaps the rest of Georgia, or Moldova.

I find it difficult to understand that anybody living in Europe or North America can be "neutral" in the brutal war started and kept running by russia, and russia only. russian leaders are monsters, as are many of the soldiers committing war crimes every week in Ukraine.

I hope European countries will increase military and financial support for Ukraine, before it's too late. We cannot let fascist russia win this brutal, unprovoked war. It would be immoral, unethical, and also cause long term security threats to the rest of Europe. russia will not stop their brutal invasions and imperialist dreams until stopped by force.

Some still blame this on NATO; may I remind you: russia was invited to a close collaboration with NATO after the end of the cold war. In addition, European NATO countries stopped investing in defense after the cold war, leading to the armed NATO forces to weaken considerably. Only russians can consider these actions to be "threatening". Of course it's just russian propaganda to claim that NATO was a threat to russia. It simply was not, and the evidence is there for all who wants to see. russia responded to this by: using the invitations into NATO to spy on NATO; started disinformation campaigns in Europe intending to weaken democracies, "hybrid war" including cyberattacks and sabotage, pretending to be "peaceful" while rebuilding their armed forces, and when strong enough launching attacks in Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and Ukraine again in 2022. Only after these events did Western Europe "wake up" and start to re-arm. Western Europe made a huge mistake in trusting russia after the end of the cold war. No we need to urgently re-arm, and increase support for Ukraine.

Slava Ukraini!

Russia.
That seems to be the only point on your tirade. Well, and a blatant disregard of History.

a terrorist nation Like sinking the Rainbow Warrior.
targeting civilians Like Hiroshima.
war crimes What country at war has not committed them? Or Western Democracy, if you like.
torture prisoners Vietnam?
They rape kids. Like priest, only... Can you back your statement? The Globe, maybe?
They should leave Ukraine / If Russia stops fighting Wishful thinking the size of Betelgeuse.
If Ukraine stops fighting Fortune telling...
full occupation of Ukraine This one the size of the Milky Way.
Perhaps the rest of Georgia, or Moldova. Or Northern Ireland?

anybody living in Europe or North America can be "neutral" About Climate Change... About all the dictatorships in Latin America... Wait, “fascists” dictatorships? Question: the rest of the world is allowed to be neutral?
the brutal war Do you know of any non brutal war?
started and kept running by Russia, and Russia only. You mean like a war started by the US or by a war kept running by Israel?
russian leaders are monsters What leaders are not?
soldiers committing war crimes The rain is wet.
We cannot let Do you have a list of things that “We cannot let” or of things that “We couldn't let”?
I hope European countries will increase military and financial support for Ukraine Not the US? Don't worry, NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian soldier or until the total destruction of Ukraine.
It would be immoral, unethical Welcome to Human History.
will not stop Do you mean the US?
...
Thank for the lesson on Fairy-Tale-History and How to ride a High Horse. Quoting a film:
Did you enjoy it as much as I did?

Moscow's strikes have damaged or destroyed more than 500 locomotives since the full-scale invasion began in 2022; more than 60% of them have been hit in the past eight months. Ukrainian Railways is now losing 37 to 40 locomotives a month.
Part of a strategy to destroy Ukrainian logistics.
Russia hunts Ukraine’s trains
Those are Ukrainian figures but, as soon as Kiev issues an Official Statement, all those locomotives are in working order again.

In a statement, Zelenski has also discover that the rain is wet: "They coerce to peace on their conditions." Him, like you, never heard of... Politics by other means.

 

[rsemmes]

A friend of mine has a paid AI, so I asked him to get an AI conclusion about that "credibility gap" of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel + recruits = UAF + AWOL + permanent losses; maths don't lie, governments do. For some reason, the AI kept going for losses estimates, including those in this report.

Public Annual Report 2025. Military Intelligence and Security Service.
Original in Dutch, AI translated.

Openbaar Jaarverslag MIVD 2025 | Rijksoverheid.nl

Openbaar Jaarverslag, over het jaar 2025, van de Militaire Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst (MIVD). Openbaar Jaarverslag MIVD 2025

www.rijksoverheid.nl

The Russian Federation
Russia poses the largest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe, thereby directly endangering our national security interests.
-So, if I were reading this from the other side of the hill, Europe would be the one “endangering our national security interests.” No one has enough imagination to do that?
The war in Ukraine is part of a long-term Russian effort towards a fundamental change in the European security architecture and the international legal order. Russia seeks a multipolar world order in which it is one of the global powers. This context gives the war in Ukraine an existential character for the Russian regime.
-Suddenly, Russia is fighting for its existence. Go figure!
As long as Russia is fighting in Ukraine, a conventional war against NATO is virtually excluded.
-Ergo, it is in the best interest of NATO to fight to the last Ukrainian soldier.
And create favourable conditions for Russia. This poses a real risk of unintended and thus difficult-to-manage escalation.
-For Russia and for us. Like killing an Archduke in Sarajevo or like: “Let's take (illegally) possession of all those frozen assets because Russia will do nothing about it.”
Russia remains capable of making incremental territorial gains across multiple fronts.
The MIVD estimates that Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million permanent loses. In 2025, a concerning trend is observed where the ratio of daily casualties is moving closer together due to an increasing number of Ukrainian permanent losses. This ratio is unfavourable for Ukraine, as it is, unlike Russia, unable or barely able to replenish its losses.
-So, we have our (national security interests-virtually excluded) estimate and that Ukraine may have been suffering those 27,000 casualties since, at least, 2025.
Despite the losses in Ukraine, Russia has also been able to implement reconstruction and expansion of its armed forces in 2025. As long as the Ukrainian defence holds, the buildup of a potential Russian military threat towards NATO territory is delayed.
-Keeping Ukraine “in the fight” sounds better than “to the last Ukrainian soldier”.
A significant qualitative improvement in the performance of the Russian armed forces. The improvement (ZAPAD-2025) of command and control and the integration of unmanned systems at all levels. The Russian armed forces demonstrate a strong adaptive capability. The Russian armed forces have not only become larger but also more effective than before the war in Ukraine.
-No surprise there, it is an Army at war. Also, if the competition is better, the threat is bigger.

Dutch Military Intelligence seems to be fond of reality too.