The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
Perhaps you would like to explain the connection between my post and this as I do not see it.
I was posting about Chervona Krinitsia and responding to a post about reality not being neutral; a friend of mine would call that multitasking.
You only pointed out at my response, not at my map. (Your: what is happening in Ukraine.)

Talking about maps...
Russia seems to be "consolidating" in Orijiv, or taking and occupying more buildings.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian strikes continue to reach into the Caspian Sea, this time damaging a Gepard class frigate:


Satellite pics at the link.
We have confirmation of quite a few warships hit. It'll be in the next update. Overall the VMF is still firmly ineffective, a few exceptions aside.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I was posting about Chervona Krinitsia and responding to a post about reality not being neutral; a friend of mine would call that multitasking.
You only pointed out at my response, not at my map. (Your: what is happening in Ukraine.)

Talking about maps...
Russia seems to be "consolidating" in Orijiv, or taking and occupying more buildings.
You seem to have totally miss read my original post or have it confused with someone else's. What my post was about, which I made no reference to yours or anyone else's posts was just that I asked, that in general, everyone stop taking pot shots at each other, nothing else.
Were, what you came up with in response, remains a mystery.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Going to put it here for no particular reason.

Watched a documentary about the James Webb telescope. A couple of decades worth of work. About ten billion dollars spent. Something like 14 or so countries participated in the project. I myself remember the hearings in Congress about “how can we justify this spending to the constituents?” or some such when the costs were rising and going well over the ridiculously low and unrealistic initial budget. Ten billion dollars over two decades…

Global costs of this war alone measure in trillions, two plus easily and at the very least, and only accounting for direct financial costs to the taxpayers of various jurisdictions. Over just 4.5 years. Then, accounting for the damage caused and reconstruction costs, hundreds of billions more (in both places). And so on.

A couple of telescopes were dropped on Iran in munitions alone.

Global spending on nukes (as in nuclear weapons) since the inception would probably easily beat $20T.

But we will mull over for weeks and years about dropping a few billion (sometimes millions or less) on a scientific project. Every time. Because “explain to constituents”. Or because someone (a politician) is completely ignorant of the topic at hand thinks that the benefits of any particular project (even JW telescope brought as an example above) are questionable (especially because, in this case, the world was created in seven days and the earth is possibly flat to begin with).

Weird how we, as people, operate. Anyway…


On the subject of spending money, the US International Development Finance Corporation has approved a debt financing for Vodafone of Ukraine. The amount is undisclosed but is a part of a wider $8B financing for various projects.


Interestingly, Vodafone is the second biggest telecommunications company in Ukraine. It is owned by an Azeri conglomerate, ran by a (former?) Russian with ties to Pinchuk, a infamous UA billionaire, the husband of Kuchma’s daughter; also ties to Aliyev (president of Azerbaijan), who was Rubinski’s professor when he studied at MGIMO (Moscow). Cool story.


The biggest Ukrainian telecommunications company is Kyivstar that is run by Vimpelcom (now VEON) that sold its business in Russia for a couple of billion dollars after the invasion, but still has ties to Fridman and Aven, a coupe of sanctioned Russian billionaires. Also a cool story.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
27 Billion is too big a number to get "lost"...

“In private, some have questioned whether money is being spent efficiently, two European officials said, or whether needs are being overstated,” the report (NYT) said.
“The surprise request threatens to complicate Ukraine’s relationship with allies at a moment it needs their support,” the article adds.

Putin Will Not Yield.
(That is the headline of the article.)
If CIA Director Ratcliffe thought he could get Putin to desist, he was indulging in wishful thinking. Rather than inching toward a conclusion, the war is escalating. It is not forcing Putin into a dead end either politically or militarily, and to expect Russian concessions or a negotiated settlement in the near to medium term would be folly.
According to polls conducted on August 9 by the Levada Institute, many Russians would prefer peace talks (just like in Ukraine?) to an ongoing war. Some business owners and workers, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises, are frustrated by sharp tax increases. Should the economy worsen and the war cast a darker shadow on daily life, this discontent could deepen. So far, the cracks remain small. Klepach’s criticism was a modest gesture of public dissent against an edifice of power that remains more than formidable. Putin has the institutional and practical means to do what he wishes. What he wishes, most of all, is to wage war.

Yes, a lot of wishful thinking (or fairy tales) going around. From the media, you would get the impression that Russia (and only Russia) is killing civilians and that Ukraine is doing just great; while Russia is attacking Europe and NATO missiles are not hitting Russia.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Russian advances have slowed down again after a fast month in June. I don't have a tally on Suriyak's map, but AMK has Russia at 137 sq km net gain. It's noteworthy that Russia's gross gains are over 400 sq kms, indicating that the issue isn't Russia's ability to gain ground but rather Ukraine's robust counter-attacks. There are rumors about Russia having difficulties with manpower, with recruiting dropping, and another mobilization being considered. There are also reports that Ukraine has successfully tightened up mobilization efforts, reducing manpower issues (though not eliminating them).


Northern Sumy-Chernigov area.

There are reports of a Russian buildup in this area for a future offensive. Details are scarce.

Russia is continuing to push into Ulanovo securing some fields south of it and turning the village itself into a grey zone. South of there Russia has crossed the border in two new small areas. The purpose of these crossings is unclear and so far they're not developing into anything greater.


Ukrainian special forces have shown up in this area suggesting Ukraine takes it seriously.


Sumy area.

North of Sumy Ukrainian forces have recaptured Ivolzhanskoe and Kyanitsa, and are pushing back into Novaya Sich. Meanwhile Russia has taken ground in and around Novokonstantinovka. North-east of Sumy Russia has taken Sadki and a large chunk of forest around it. East of Sumy Russian forces have inched forward, extending the grey zone to Velikie Priluki. South-east of Sumy Russian forces have taken all of Ryasnoe. In Mogrytsa Russia continues to gain ground.


Russian drone strike on a FrankenSAM, Sumy area.


Russia hits a Ukrainian Humvee carrying a RAK-SA-12 light MLRS.


Kharkov area.


Russia has taken Kazach'ya Lopan' completely and has taken Goptovka and Kudeevka. Russian forces have also pushed southward along the western bank of the Travyanskoe reservoir, likely intending to link the front line with Russian forces in Goptovka. In the Volchansk area Ukraine has managed to stabilize the situation, with back and forth fighting continuing. East of there Ukraine has begun a series of counter-attacks recapturing Dolzhanka, Chernoe, and Shirokoe. The villages were never in Russian hands, rather a grey area. Ukrainian forces in the north-east are still in a semi-encirclement with a small opening. This is not an ideal situation and Ukraine needs to either pull out or open the gap wider.


A destroyed Ukrainian M113 on the Bliznyuki-Barven'kovo road.


Russian bomb strikes near Blagodatnoe.


Russia hit the Perchik cafe and a mass of light vehicles in Pechenegi, Kharkov region. This was initially reported as a strike against civilian transport but it appears there was a Ukrainian military presence there, including foreign fighters.


A Russian T-80BVM in hedgehog armor doing indirect fires in Kharkov region, battle group North.


Kupyansk area.


North of Kupyansk localized Ukrainian counter-attacks have gained some ground in the forests near Figolevka. Inside Kupyansk itself Russia continues to slowly gain ground, and is pushing on Moskovka again.



Ukrainian strikes on Kovsharovka indirectly confirm continued Russian presence.


Oskol front.


Russia is gaining ground in Zagryzovo while Ukraine is pushing towards Borovskaya Andreevka again. Russia also inched forward north of the road, south of Borovskaya Andreevka. Meanwhile Ukraine has retaken Katerinovka, Grekovka, and Novomihailovka in western Lugansk region. This is part of Ukraine's efforts north of Liman.


Krasniy Liman area.

The situation here has deteriorated dramatically for Russia. The slow and steady Ukrainian counter-attacks on the northern flank of the town created a serious threat of encirclement, leading to a Russian withdrawal. Ukraine has recaptured Srednee, Shandrigolovoe, Noveselovka, Derilovo, Drobyshevo, and Zelenaya Dolnya. Russian forces are still in Kolodyazi, but it's unclear if Russia can hold it. This effectively deblockades Liman from the north, and makes the fall of the town highly unlikely any time soon. It also potentially removes much pressure from the route Slavyansk-Izyum.

This raises many questions. Ukraine's counter-attack here was well known for several months, and the withdrawal shows that this was not some surprise. One possibility is that local command (West MD again) was lying to senior leadership, hiding failures, and thus were not granted the resources they needed to deal with the situation. While this would show a pretty major structural problem for Russia, this would actually be the better case scenario. The worst case is that Russia is somehow low on resources in general. Pointing in favor of the first explanation is Putin's statement about Russia capturing Svyatogorsk, which was accompanied by a poorly done AI-generated video and immediately contradicted by far more reliable Ukrainian footage. Also pointing in the direction of the first theory are the reports of a new Russian buildup on the border of Chernigov region. However pointing in the other direction are rumors of Russia's recruiting slowing down. I think the former is more likely at this point, but the latter can't be excluded.


Nikolaevka area.

Russian forces continue to push deeper into Nikolaevka though so far no consolidation has been confirmed.


Another look at the Slavyansk-Izyum road. A Ukrainian vehicle gets hit.


A Russian FPV drone hit a Ukrainian explosive package under a bridge into Slavyansk. Several vehicles were on the bridge when it was hit. They appear to be civilian vehicles.


Russian strikes on bridges in Slavyansk.


Russia hit a gas station on the outskirts of Slavyansk, it's curious that it's survived this long.


Damage is accumulating in Slavyansk, and it's likely the city will be destroyed in the fighting.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Druzhkovka area.

Russian bomb strikes on bridges in Kramatorsk continue. We have some evidence of repair efforts at one of the bridges but the continuing strikes likely don't leave much hope for that.


Russian drone strikes on allegedly a Ukrainian YPR-765 between Druzhkovka and Alekseevka-Druzhkovka. I can't really confirm the vehicle type, but it's a plausible ID.


A series of 24 Russian strikes on unamored vehicles and 14 armored vehicles, plus two larger tracker vehicles, one probably an MBT, all in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka area. The strike from above is part of this compilation too, but I didn't count it.


Russian infiltrators took out a Ukrainian drone team in Druzhkovka suggesting the front line here is extremely porous. Warning graphic footage.


Ukrainian roads in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka area. It's starting to become difficult to enter Druzhkovka, just like it did Konstantinovka in the run up to the assault on the town.


Konstantinovka area.

Russian forces have cleared most of the Ukrainian pocket north-east of Konstantinovka taking Chervonoe. Now only a grey zone remains. North of Konstantinovka Russian forces gain ground and have entered Kondratovka and Kurtovka. Alekseevka-Druzhkovka is now threatened from the flanks. West of Kosntantinovka Russian forces clear more fields, while fighting continues in Nikolaypolye.


West of Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces have captured Novonikolaevka-Drugaya, and have entered Novoandreevka and Gruz'koe. West of there Russian forces cleared more fields, captured Kucherov Yar, and are pushing on Zolotoy Kolodets. Russian infiltrators have reached Novotroitskoe, on the Kramatorsk-Dobropol'ye highway. To the north-east Russian infiltrators have reached Starorayskoe.


Dobropol'ye area.

Russian forces have taken some fields and expanded the grey zone towards Belozerskoe and Novovodyanoe. South-west of Dobropol'ye Russian forces have begun enveloping Dobropol'ye, though it's all grey zone at this stage, no firm control. Further south Russia has secured Novogrishino, and is pushing further into Dobropol'ye village. Inside Dobropol'ye town Russian infiltrators are present in most of the town.


A small bucket of Russian strikes on Ukrainian light armor in the Dobropol'ye area. This is clearly work on logistics and troop rotations.


Russian strikes on Novodonetskoe.


An interesting look at the density of glide-bomb strikes in the Dobropol'ye area where they're literally knocking down a forest.


West of Pokrovsk.


Russian forces have pushed on Sergeevka, gaining more ground on the eastern side of the village and pushing the grey zone far forward south and south-west of it. Russia has also begun pushing on Gulevo from the south. Ukraine meanwhile counter-attacked towards Novopodgorodnoe, regaining areas of countryside and turning the village into a grey zone.


Velikaya Novoselka Axis.

I've changed the name of this section to reflect Ukraine's continuing offensive efforts here.

Ukraine has cleared all of Novopavlovka, some of the plantations south of it, and pushed Russia out of Filiya, taking the village. South of there they've cleared Malievka, and eneterd Voskresenka, Voronoe, Yanvarskoe, Fedorovoka and Veseloe. Overall Ukraine continues to gain ground here. Russia did push Ukraine back out of Yalta and is counter-attacking out of Komar towards Mirnoe.


Russian strikes on Avramovka.


Eastern Zaporozhye area.

On the northern side back and forth fighting continues with Ukraine securing Ternovoe, Egorovka, Vishnevoe, Verbovoe, Alekseevka, and Stepovoe. Note this is less of a Ukrainian advance and more of solidification of control, though continue Russian infiltrations are possible. Russia meanwhile has secured a large chunk of ground north of Gulyaypole, eliminating Ukrainian infiltrations in that area. This somewhat reduces the grey zone, though I'm skeptical. West of Gulyaypole Russian forces have advanced west out of Zaliznichnoe, and north out of Gulyaypol'skoe, taking a number of positions along the road. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to eliminate the Russian infiltrations westward, pushing Russian forces away from the road to Omel'nik. Lesnoe, Vozdvizhenka, and Verkhnyaya Tersa are back in Ukrainian hands with Russian forces pushed back towards the rail line.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian infantry west of Ternovatoe.


Zaporozhye area.

Back and forth fighting between Pavlovka and Malie Scherbaki has expanded the grey zone in both directions. Meanwhile Russia's assault on Orekhov has begun in earnest. Russian forces have pushed west out of Charovnoe into Chervonoe Krynitsa. They also recaptured Belogor'ye. Russia holds most of Malaya Tokmachka and is in the process of clearing the rest with only a small area of Ukrainian control left.. Russia also continues to gain ground in Orekhov itself, and has entered Novopavlovka from the west, threatening Orekhov with another assault from the west. Ukraine's forces may end up pushed across the river soon.


Russian strikes in the Orekhov area, we have LMURs and FAB-1500s.


Russian forces moving into Orekhov hit by FPV drones.


Russian bomb strikes on Orekhov, including reportedly some FAB-3000s.


Russia hit a Ukrainian mine storage in a tunnel underneath the EM-18 highway, Zaporozhye.


Russian BMP-3M from the 70th MRRgt, 42nd MRDiv, on the Orekhov Axis.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepr front.

An interesting video of a Ukrainian drone defense turret in a building, Kherson region.


Russian bomb strikes on Kherson continue.


Black Sea/Crimea.

Ukraine hits a decommissioned Su-24M being used as a decoy. Note however the Ukrainian observer UAV doing BDA, it indicates problems with Russia's air defense in the peninsula.


Ukraine hit either an Su-33 in Anapa. Russian sources claim it was a decommissioned airframe.


Ukrainian unmanned boats getting destroyed in the Sochi harbor.


Ukrainian unmanned boat firing an MLRS towards Gelendzhik, the target is unclear.


A Ukrainian unmanned boat takes out a Russian unmanned boat.


Russian Su-30SM intercepting a Ukrainian drone with cannon fire. This dangerous and expensive practice is understandable from Ukraine but a bad sign from Russian. With it being an Su-30SM I suspect it's an AVMF aircraft.


Russian drone interceptors at work in Crimea.


A destroyed Russian Pantsyr-S1M in Kerch. This is an export Pantsyr variant that was handed over for domestic service and sighted in the area previously.


We have good confirmation that Ukraine has caused substantial damage of two 11356 frigates and 21631 small missile ship in recent strikes. The ships are repairable but likely out of action for quite some time. This does impact Russia's ability to launch Kalibr cruise missiles. The ships are covered in anti-drone cages but this didn't save them. Note this damage is not all one strike but an accummulation of strikes over the past 30-40 days.


Russia has begun building unmanned boat bases in Crimea.


Russian decoys at Saki airbase, Crimea, including what appears to be parts of an Su-24M and a Orion-S mockup.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Statistics show that Ukraine often launches more mid and long range strikes at Russian than vice-versa. The strikes are almost all with drones, only a few missiles, and total payload is substantially smaller. However the other major assymetry is that Russia continues to down the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian inbounds with very high interception rates.


Strikes on shipping continue from both sides with traffic to Russian ports substantially disrupted, and traffic into Odessa completely shut down. Russia is also continuing the pattern of striking port facilities. If things continue, Russia's ports may also have to shut down. Russia also keeps hitting port infrastructure. A notable change is that Russian gliding bombs can now reach Odessa. It's unclear whether the main reason is longer range bombs or Russia launching them from closer due to an absence of air defenses. One notable outlier is Russia striking a vessel in Romania's economic zone.


Russia continues their campaign against Ukrainian rail. The damage continues to accumulate but so far there are no signs of systemic collapse. It will likely take months more. Strikes against rail infrastructure objects also continue, shifting to western Ukraine where there is likely more to hit. According to Ukrainian government statements, Ukraine has lost a total of over 500 locomotives in this war, with over 250 of that being this year.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian trucks continue across Ukraine. What's interesting is that unlike Russia's new wave of drone-defense teams, we don't see a corresponding effort by Ukraine to protect civilian logistics. It might be because Russia's efforts are more diffuse and less impactful. It might be because Ukraine is short on resources. Curiously at least some strikes hit concealed Ukrainian drone launchers hidden inside civilian trucks and trailers, a page from Iran's playbook. Russia is also still hitting gas stations in Ukraine, causing supply issues with the geography of strikes expanding to Kiev and even western Ukraine. Ukraine has even begun hardening gas stations. On the flip side there seems to be a decrease in Ukrainian strikes against Russian civilian trucks, though I don't have good statistics on this. And of course decrease doesn't mean zero.


Russia has also begun hitting border crossing points from Ukraine westward to Poland, Romania, and Moldova. This is likely meant to exacerbate the impact of the strikes on Odessa's port and ships going in and out. Russia event hit a number of grain trucks near Izmail.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The ugly pattern of Ukrainian attacks on civilian buses continues.


BDA from the Russian strike on the Preobrazhenskiy bridge shows part of it collapsed, but the bridge remains passable.


An interesting Russian Lancet strike against either an IRIS-T or a decoy. But what's interesting is that it was apparently launched from ~200kms, from the sea, meaning either an aerial platform or a ship/boat. My money is on an unmanned boat.


Russia hit either two 3D6 radars or convincing decoys in Nikolaev region.


Ukraine took out 3 Russian helos in a recent strike on Sochi, hitting an Mi-28N, a Ka-52, and an Mi-8 variant. Reportedly Ukraine also hit two S-300 TELs and a Pantsyr SAM.


Ukraine keep targeting Russia's droneport at the Donetsk airport.


Ukraine hit a Tu-95 but it appears to have been a decommissioned airframe used as a decoy.


Ukraine hit a MiG-29 (allegedly a decommissioned airframe) and a Ka-52 or a convincing decoy.


Ukraine hit a light hangar in Krasnodar region, damaging it. Russia has 3 types of hangars, light, medium, and heavy. In my opinion they should have gone for predominantely if not exclusively heavy HAS. The fate of the contents is unclear.


Ukrainian sources indicate Russia has developed a dedicated ballistic missile, the RM-48U, to be fired out of S-300/400 TELs and has stood up dedicated units to do this.


There is a continued pattern of poor accuracy from Russian Onyx cruise missiles when used against land targets. Onyx is notably an AShM.


Russian drone-defense teams; on the roads in southern Ukraine (1st-3rd links), BARS-Ryazan' (4th link), Akhmat operating as part of battlegroup north (5th link), Moscow Region police (6th link), Sevastopol' (7th link).


Russian BARS-Belgorod using interceptor drones.


A claim has emerged of BARS-Kursk downing a Flamingo cruise missile with HMG fire. This isn't impossible, though it seems unlikely.


Russia has apparently started deploying drone-defense lasers. Neither the model, nor the name, nor the details of it are available. It may be domestic or an import.


A look at a new Russian drone port in Orlov region.


An interesting look at a Ukrainian Mi-8 carrying interceptor drones.


A have a Ukrainian An-196 being shown off with two Katran missiles that reportedly carry a 20kg payload for 200kms.


Ukraine continues to use light planes for drone interception work.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Two Russian Su-35S reportedly collided in midair over Kursk region. Details and confirmation are lacking.


Patterns in the fighting continue to shift, here we have tens of Russian trucks in emplacements, presumably for protection, at approximately 100kms from the front line. Presumably we will eventually see fully covered positions to hide/protect them from drones.


Russia has been erecting drone-cages and various improvised defenses on warships against drone strikes. But of course this is too little too late.


An interesting post from Ukraine's Rubezh Bde about Russian glide bombs and how they work with Russian infiltration tactics.


We have our first sighting of the Skyranger-35 in Ukraine's 1020th Air Defense Rgt.


A look at Ukraine's 38th SAM Rgt, operating a mix of Spada 2000, Crotale NG, Osa with R-73 missiles, MANPADS teams and even interceptor drones. A mix of systems can be suboptimal but is also less likely to all be ineffective at once, especially given the variety of Russian inbounds they have to deal with.


Ukraine has developed a laser-guided SAM for apparently drone-defense work, on the basis of the Stugna-P ATGM.


Interesting footage of Ukrainain airfield technicians using western airfield equipment to mount weapons to aircraft.


Ukraine's 225th Assault Rgt with a M1 in hedgehog armor.


Ukraine's 3rd Army corps with a a Rapid Ranger SAM.


Ukraine's 5th National Guards Bde with a Zuzana-2 howitzer.


Ukraine's 156th Mech with a T-64BV with a massive anti-drone cage.


Ukraine's 58th Mech Bde with a BMP-1TS in hedgehog armor.


Production of Bogdana howitzers continues in Ukraine.


There are reports Russia has received heavier KN-30 ballistic missiles from the DPRK.


Another POW exchange took place trading 103 for 103.

 

Redshift

Active Member
27 Billion is too big a number to get "lost"...

“In private, some have questioned whether money is being spent efficiently, two European officials said, or whether needs are being overstated,” the report (NYT) said.
“The surprise request threatens to complicate Ukraine’s relationship with allies at a moment it needs their support,” the article adds.

Putin Will Not Yield.
(That is the headline of the article.)
If CIA Director Ratcliffe thought he could get Putin to desist, he was indulging in wishful thinking. Rather than inching toward a conclusion, the war is escalating. It is not forcing Putin into a dead end either politically or militarily, and to expect Russian concessions or a negotiated settlement in the near to medium term would be folly.
According to polls conducted on August 9 by the Levada Institute, many Russians would prefer peace talks (just like in Ukraine?) to an ongoing war. Some business owners and workers, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises, are frustrated by sharp tax increases. Should the economy worsen and the war cast a darker shadow on daily life, this discontent could deepen. So far, the cracks remain small. Klepach’s criticism was a modest gesture of public dissent against an edifice of power that remains more than formidable. Putin has the institutional and practical means to do what he wishes. What he wishes, most of all, is to wage war.

Yes, a lot of wishful thinking (or fairy tales) going around. From the media, you would get the impression that Russia (and only Russia) is killing civilians and that Ukraine is doing just great; while Russia is attacking Europe and NATO missiles are not hitting Russia.
Which NATO missiles are hitting Russia?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Which NATO missiles are hitting Russia?
Is it s trick question?

Some would say not enough. Russian incursions into NATO airspace need a response that hurts IMHO.
What response would you propose? Our weapons, enabled by our intelligence, are literally destroying infrastructure in Russia (and killing Russian civilians in Russia). That probably hurts? Russians are responding in a manner to avoid further confrontation and still have ways to go. We are escalating, Russia is responding in an extremely limited way. If we escalate further, do you suppose they will not respond?

It’s actually funny (not really, but…) how we keep climbing the escalation ladder, while insisting that Russia is going to attack countries covered by the Treaty. It’s a paradox, is it not? This clearly leads to self-fulfilling prophecy. I am not sure what the thought process is here unless everyone (or some parts of it) is ready to go to war with Russia. Or is that the part where it is not weak enough yet? What’s the plan?

The confidence in many is also pretty staggering. Poles appear to shine in this department.

IMG_6901.jpeg

He forgot to count the missile production and current stocks (the same for long-range drones), but, more importantly, the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems, ability and willingness to absorb destruction, etc. Once the willingness and readiness of every individual member is soberly examined and assessed… A few days ago the same guy was saying if Ukraine is able to destroy whatever percentage of Russia refining capacity in six months (while in reality the campaign has been going on for much longer than that, over two years), Poland can do it in weeks or some such. At the root of his confusion stands the fact that Ukraine itself cannot degrade Russian refining capacity or anything else. Ukraine cannot defend itself either. Clearly, even entire NATO’s capacity is not sufficient for Ukraine to defend itself from air attacks. Then, remove the US from the equation for a mental exercise and examine what happens to that capacity.

Funny enough, Lithuanian PM must have thought about all this and declared that there is no current threat of Russia attacking them in the foreseeable future. To deescalate?

Another excited and confident Pole:

IMG_6905.jpeg

I bet you Russians also thought that they wouldn’t have to fight a “21st century war”. By the way, I don’t agree with people constantly defining this war as some new and future type of warfare. Nonsense.

It’s cute though that (some) Poles, along with (some of?) their leadership think that Poland (or NATO) would, and easily so, defeat Russia.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. See Russia itself for an example.

Also note, importantly, Russia does not have a proxy here it can throw under the bus.
 
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