NYT:
John Ratcliffe’s meeting this week with a Russian intelligence chief was aimed at pushing the Kremlin to pursue a peace deal with Ukraine.
www.nytimes.com
Via the archive:
John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, made a secretive visit to Moscow this week to privately share his bleak assessment of the state of the Russian war against Ukraine, and to urge the Russians to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse, current and former officials said.
Because:
C.I.A. analysts have long questioned whether Mr. Putin’s advisers have given him honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.
But:
Mr. Ratcliffe delivered the message to Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence service[…]
And:
The C.I.A. has long maintained communications channels with the F.S.B. and Russia’s foreign intelligence service, which is known as the S.V.R.
So we have:
- CIA suspects that Putin does not get honest info about anything that is happening in the country and war in particular and his advisors lie to him;
- CIA has open channels with the FSB and SVR, where bleak assessments can be shared on “regular” basis;
- CIA director flies to Moscow to meet Bortnikov, the head of FSB, one of the main Putin’s advisors, to deliver a bleak assessment.
That sure makes sense. Furthermore,
Some officials said they hoped that Mr. Putin, a former intelligence officer himself, would see a message from the C.I.A. director as more urgent and credible than communications through normal diplomatic channels.
So we have a former intelligence officer, who perfectly understands how the system that was and the one he built works, yet being completely deluded about it, now expected to take a message from the head of an enemy’s intelligence service, that he believes orchestrated a coup in Ukraine, attempted doing the same in many other places, including Russia, fighting
the proxy war against Russia, and so on, more urgently and give it credibility. All through an intermediary who lies to him all the time. That also makes sense. But to continue:
The private message that Mr. Ratcliffe delivered to Mr. Bortnikov about Ukraine echoed some of the director’s public statements.[…]
He noted that the life expectancy of a Russian soldier on the front lines was less than 35 minutes.
Very credible message, no doubt about it. I would expect Putin reaching to Ukrainians saying he is ready to make a deal at last.
Few days before that:
Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua
Three key points are currently on the agenda:
- Ceasefire: The main and top-priority idea in the document that has been developed
- Creation of a free economic zone: A US initiative that envisions a reciprocal withdrawal of forces. Ukraine and Russia would take equal steps back, creating a buffer zone under the control of a third party.
- Security guarantees from the EU and NATO: A clear definition of actions by the European Union and the Alliance, and the steps Ukraine is prepared to take in return.
"Everyone is reacting positively to what has been proposed; no one has any objections. This is what is on the table today," Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized.
Beating an old horse, expecting a result… It’s like they are negotiating with each other. Success is probably close this time because of the urgent credible message and:
The president added that the ideas presented are not exclusively Ukrainian. They are a joint plan developed with US and European partners and finalized following contacts between the US side and Kyiv and Moscow.
I am sure Moscow has no objections and reacted positively (more on it in another post). A few caveats, of course:
As reported, while working to resolve funding issues for Ukraine's defense, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined two major challenges the country faces: ballistic weapons and a lack of funding.
In particular, Ukraine expects its partners to provide 30 billion euros to cover its defense needs.
That would be $30B they were supposed to spend in the second half of 2026 but spent in the first. Flying hundreds of drones daily, including to well-defended targets where penetration is negligible at best and nonexistent otherwise, is not cheap. But partners will provide, they think they have no choice. In the meantime:
"Unfortunately, we have to accept it [mobilisation] as it is. We cannot do otherwise. We have to find the courage and honestly say: we cannot mobilise fewer than 30,000 people a month. This is the minimum number needed to maintain what we have."[…]
"Not much will change with Khmara taking office. Because the requirement is at least 30,000 people. And that is a huge number of people," Budanov said.
"So, no matter how we say that we are now going to recruit people differently, the numbers will not change. And that means the number of dissatisfied people will not change either. There is nothing we can do about it," he added.
President’s Office Head Kyrylo Budanov says Ukraine needs to mobilise at least 30,000 people monthly to maintain the current strength of its Armed Forces.
www.pravda.com.ua
So while Russians live for less than 35 minutes at the frontline, killed by buckets (over 40K (or is it 50K?) per month now), and still mobilize ~30K each month and push at the front, Ukraine, taking reported 1 casualty to every… I don’t know anymore, 5-20 plus Russians, needs to mobilize at least 30K every month to maintain the current situation. Forced mobilization is (obviously, as discussed previously) will continue regardless of who is in charge. Too bad they fired Fedorov because things would otherwise be completely different and none of this would be necessary. The guy, by the way, refused to take any role but the MoD to help the country, called for elections,
said “it looks as though we're gradually, slowly losing”, and may now bail to Italy (I see it as a likely scenario):
His new role comes weeks after a dramatic break with President Zelenskyy.
www.politico.eu
Meanwhile, more UA MPs are
accused of money laundering. This time, Budanov himself is implicated (
in Ukrainian).
More next time.
would have been faster.
