The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

A reminder, I'm not going to go through the entire list of strikes by both sides that have occurred. I'm instead going to focus on those I found interesting, or on trends and patterns. If someone is interested, I direct them to the sources I've used for a while now.

Russia's campaign against Ukrainian rail transport is continuing. Even though we have over 200 confirmed strikes on locomotives so far, there are thousands of locomotives in Ukraine. It will take probably over a year of strikes at the current pace to really put Ukraine's rail network out of service.


Russia's strikes on gas stations also continue with the total hit creeping up on 200. While Ukraine has thousands of gas stations nation-wide, the strikes are mostly in areas closer to the front line, and along roads that feed front line logistics. The biggest impact has been the Kharkov-Dnepropetrovsk highway where there's ~150kms of road without a single gas station left standing. We're likely going to see this impact Ukrainian truck traffic, but I don't think this will be drastic, rather we will likely see a marginal effect. Ukraine is returning the favor somewhat, but it's far less of a directed campaign.


The road war continues with strikes on trucks, but we have a reduction in strikes by both sides, and the geography of Ukrainian strikes appears to have become less focused on the roads to Crimea. It's unclear if this is because they're now well patrolled by drone defense teams or if traffic there is reduced and deemed not significant. I suspect the former.


Russia hit a factory that refurbishes SAMs in Vishnevoe. The factory is called Vizar and apparently accumulated giant stockpiles of various munitions there, stored in an unsafe manner next to residential areas. The result is that much of the town of Vishnevoe is destroyed by the massive explosions and fires. There are also unconfirmed reports of munitions containing depleted uranium being stored there.


Ukraine hit a disabled Mig-29 at an airbase in Kursk. The jet had been hit before and was parked for over a year. They also hit either a Pantsyr or a decoy nearby.


Ukraine hit a Mi-8 helo in a field somewhere.


At least one Russian Tu-95 has been destroyed in an attack Ukraine launched on July 16th.


We have two videos, one of a Ukrainian Hornet attacking a Russian drone defense team, the other of a Ukrainian drone firing S-5 rockets at Russian drone defense teams. This suggests a couple of things. First off, the evolution of drone warfare is continuing and Russia will likely have to adjust drone defense team tactics. Armored vehicles could provide some protection, but I don't think Russia can equip all of them that way. The other thing is that Russian drone defense teams are likely having an effect, leading Ukraine to make an effort to attack them.


A Ukrainian Darts drone being launched by an aerostat presumably to extend range.


Russian drone defense BARS units are now using light aircraft like Ukraine, here we have a Yak-52 and an An-2. Rich and vast is that Soviet inheritance... Of interesting note is the interceptor drones being mounted under the wings.


Another Russian drone defense unit with DPM (upgraded DP-27s). Those YakB-12.7s are looking really good now.


Another Russian drone defense team, with one with Aklav anti-drone turrets, equipped with multi-barrel GShG-7.62 MMGs.


It appears Ukraine is completely out of Patriot interceptors.


Ukrainian Yak-52s also do drone defense work.


Upgraded Russian Gerber drones have winglets and extra fuel tanks.


Yet another new variant of the Kometa satellite navigation system on Iskander missiles was found by Ukrainians.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russia lost an Su-35S trying to enagage F-16s but being brought down by a Patriot SAM. The pilot reportedly catapulted successfully. Russian sources claim 2 F-16s baited the Su-35S into Patriot range.


Ukraine lost an Mi-8 in Poltava region while trying to intercept a Russian drone. The entire crew of 4 is KIA.


A Ukrainian drone attempts to hit an Mi-28 but appears to get hit by the rotor. The fate of the helicopter is unclear.


Russia took out a Ukrainian Rapid Ranger SAM. Despite all their efforts, Russia's SEAD/DEAD campaign yields sporadic and inconsistent results. Occasionally they take something out but they have not been able to systematically destroy Ukraine's GBAD.


An interesting video of a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone dropping off a UGV with a mine presumably in the Russian rear.


We have our first confirmation of Russian MBTs with Arena-M deployed to Ukraine. Here we have one T-72B3A providing indirect fires. The vehicle has K-5 on the turret but Relikt on the hull. Another example of the same has a mine trawl, suggesting it might be seeing more front-line action.


Russian security forces claim they have foiled another spiderweb type attack by Ukrainian agents. Targets reportedly included objects in Moscow region and the Far East.


An interesting adaption on a Russian Molniya drone with a compass installed, and a camera set up to be able to look at it.


We have a rare look at Russian UCAVs, including an Orion-S with the new Banderol' cruise missile, as well as one with Kornet ATGMs, and a Forpost-RU which apparently remain active too.


Russia drone manufacturing facilities in Alabuga continue to expand.


A look at an underground tunnel built by Ukrainian forces. Both Russia and Ukraine have started building underground facilities to avoid drones.


Another look at Ukraine's Neptune coastal AShM.


Ukraine has resumed the formation of new brigades, forming the 50th and 76th Mech Bdes. There are unconfirmed reports of the 55th and 167th Mech, and 38th Arty Bdes.


Reportedly the US company Forterra has supplied over 100 Lancer UGVs to Ukraine.


Ukraine has reportedly ordered 4 SAMP/T NG SAMs from France, and will get temporary use of two SAMP/T systems in the meantime.


There are reports Ukraine will license produce SCALP-EG and Aster-30 missiles, and Hammer gliding bombs. Personally I'm skeptical this will happen any time soon.


Zelenskiy is replacing General Syrski with General Drapatiy as Chief of the Armed Forces for the UAF.


Reportedly Germany will manufacture Bars drones for Ukraine. The Bars is another long range strike drone.


Another exchange of bodies took place between Russia and Ukraine with Russia handing over 501 and Ukraine handing over 31. The reduced totals for Russia are likely tied to slower rates of advance for Russian forces.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Russia lost an Su-35S trying to enagage F-16s but being brought down by a Patriot SAM. The pilot reportedly catapulted successfully. Russian sources claim 2 F-16s baited the Su-35S into Patriot range.

The other side’s claim is that it was an engagement by the F—16 itself that brought down the Su, citing General Cain:


While I think it means very little (if anything at all as opposed to “very significant!”) in the current environment, I thought I should point it out.
 
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