The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vanquish]

Ukrainian Drone Raid Hits 10 Russian Ships, Crippling Crimea Supply Lines

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces struck 10 vessels, including 8 shadow fleet oil tankers, severely disrupting Russian logistics to occupied Crimea.

www.navalnews.com

Amazing how much drone warfare has reshaped the nature of war. The 4 years of this war have probably had more impact on warfare going forward than any technology changes over the past couple of decades.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Is it just images attached by me or any other images?

Not sure if it's just my setup but the screenshots by @KipPotapych are very large and makes it difficult to read, is it possible to make them smaller?

I did not know that and I apologize. I mentioned earlier that I have never opened this website on anything other than a mobile device, which is still true today. When attaching the images using the phone, they are appear to be automatically resized to some standard size, regardless whether the attachment is made via the attach image icon or writing in the bbcode with the url of the image at the hosting site. On the mobile device everything looks just fine.i also think I had asked about it previously and since no one responded, I concluded there are no issues.

Yes, he can attach them as thumbnails instead, which is a more manageable size, and anyone who wants the full-size version can still click to enlarge them.

If you use a mobile device, do you see that option? If yes and you could point me in the that direction, I (and clearly others, lol) would appreciate it.

 

[personaldesas]

^ Is it just images attached by me or any other images?

I did not know that and I apologize. I mentioned earlier that I have never opened this website on anything other than a mobile device, which is still true today. When attaching the images using the phone, they are appear to be automatically resized to some standard size, regardless whether the attachment is made via the attach image icon or writing in the bbcode with the url of the image at the hosting site. On the mobile device everything looks just fine.i also think I had asked about it previously and since no one responded, I concluded there are no issues.


If you use a mobile device, do you see that option? If yes and you could point me in the that direction, I (and clearly others, lol) would appreciate it.

I don’t use the mobile version, so I’m not sure how it looks there. That might be the disconnect, where on mobile the screenshots probably look fine, while on web they scale up massively.

On web, at least, you click “Attach files”, upload the image, and then once it’s uploaded you get the option to insert it as “Thumbnail” instead of “Full image”.

 

[KipPotapych]

I don’t use the mobile version, so I’m not sure how it looks there. That might be the disconnect, where on mobile the screenshots probably look fine, while on web they scale up massively.

On web, at least, you click “Attach files”, upload the image, and then once it’s uploaded you get the option to insert it as “Thumbnail” instead of “Full image”.

View attachment 55136

How does my last post with images look like now?

 

[KipPotapych]

Potential NATO reactions to nuclear attacks in Ukraine -- this was written quite some time ago but still provides an indication of what might happen:

How Might NATO Respond to a Possible Russian Tactical Nuclear Detonation? – NAOC

Officially this is what NATO says: "NATO remains vigilant and conveys a clear message to Russia that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought. Any use of nuclear weapons by Russia would fundamentally change the nature of the war, and it would have severe consequences for Russia."

NATO's support for Ukraine | NATO Topic

“Would have severe consequences”, especially in combination with the previous sentence, is a language for “we won’t respond in any significant way because we can’t”.

Of the three options mentioned in the article, option one is completely irrelevant - nobody cares about any ultimatums, and plenty have been given and never followed through with. And seriously, who cares? I realize the authors wrote the article without the knowledge we have today.

We have now seen that the option two is not going to happen. Beside the firm (could not be any firmer, in fact) “no American troops will fight in Ukraine”, no on one is willing to send their militaries in any open capacity to Ukraine, not to the battlefield, not to the rear. This is a nonstarter. Back to the authors not knowing what we know today (though it was kindda clear back then too).

Option is three is an empty threat because:

In this event, continual nuclear escalation might be difficult to stop once it begins.

Everyone knows that. To think that Russia will not immediately respond to such a strike, especially to the one on its territory, is beyond stupid. No one will fire a nuke at Russia. I don’t believe this is even a consideration.

Furthermore, if push comes to shove, it won’t be a detonation of “a small tactical nuclear device in Ukraine”. At least I don’t think so. Logically, it would be a one-off strike on various targets. It will not be a demonstration of anything, but an actual use of nuclear weapons “in battle” to cause certain distraction in order to gain decisive advantage to achieve the stated goals.

In fact, some demonstration strike in Ukraine would be stupid, achieve nothing, and would be completely counterproductive. It would be a demonstration of weakness. Furthermore, why proceed with something that yields no benefit, but risks currently, presumably, unknown reaction by the world? I am pretty sure that the concern of the allies (and others) is not some small tactical strike somewhere in Ukraine, but the scenario I described above. Again, there is a point…

And more on the “illustrative” strike. What is it going to illustrate? And to whom? To the allies? It has been proven so far that there is no level of destruction and death in Ukraine will serve as deterrent. It has been made clear that they will supply Ukraine until it folds and can’t fight anymore. Nothing less will do. Some illusionary victory and Russian withdrawal/retreat back to where they came from does not exist and I tend to think people are well aware of it. Hence, such a small tactical strike serves no purpose and unlikely to happen.

Side note, the fact that we are talking about it 4.5 years into the war is pretty weird stuff.

 

[KipPotapych]

Another thought. Consider the “roof knocking” strategy. In other words, a serious statement that Russia intends to use nuclear weapons to isolate the eastern part of Ukraine from the rest of the country. Not some political statement or an idiotic tweet by Medvedev. Anyone intending to leave that part of the country should do so before such and such date and time, while openly preparing for such strike. Consider the consequences.

While I do not think this would be a wise move vs the strike outlined in my previous post, as it would leave space for further small (or not so small) commitments (extremely important, as I discussed numerous times) from the allies and could lead to devastating consequences for all, I do not think this is a scenario that should be completely discounted. If it causes the massive exodus from the left side of Dnipro to the west, postpone the strike “for humanitarian reasons” to let everyone leave.

 

[KipPotapych]

How does my last post with images look like now?

I see that post looks like shit now. I am going to fix it back to what it was.

i also now tried what @personaldesas had suggested (thanks, mate) and I can do it on the mobile device as well, so I will proceed with that, if it satisfactory to y’all.

 

[KipPotapych]

Europe also exports goods (including dual-use) to Russia via third countries, as sell as directly. Europe also buys hydrocarbons and their derivatives and finished products from third countries that buy Russian stock for resale. Greeks sold dozens of ships for the Russian so-called “shadow fleet”.

To follow up on that ^ (and to test the image sizing):



Originally reported by the Financial Times, but to avoid the paywall:

Greek shipowners earnt $4bn from Russian oil trade sanctions busting - FT

Greek shipping companies have earned at least $3.8bn transporting Russian crude oil since mid-2023, as a leading member of Russia’s shadow fleet, ...

www.intellinews.com

Greeks made $4B so far on the Russian oil transport and moved 15% of the Russian oil in May. 8 of top 20 shipping companies making bank transporting Russian crude are Greek, most of the rest are Russian. The article also talks about some things I discussed a while back.

PS Thanks to @Vivendi for pointing out the image sizing issue. Took a while for someone to do so, haha.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Riots against the TCC are currently happening in Lvov. Several busses and cars have been damaged or destroyed. Protests against the TCC have been present for quite a while, with civilians trying to protect men from being snatched; however there has been an uptick in resistance recently. As Feanor noted in an above post, you have to take this in consideration during a long war.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/Tq3q46h0jc

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/T2T6mFbBfZ

 

[Redshift]

I wonder was post you have been reading, where is "only"?

Probably I should start with you considering the US ambassador in Moscow a "wild guess" and yours an "informed opinion". "We", was already explained, BTW.

I'm sorry, you can't explain "We" as you do not speak for anyone other than yourself, and using a plural to define yourself ... Well I will leave that there .... and as pointed out ad nauseum the term NATO does not mean what you imply, not does Europe or The West or any other overarching term that you attempt to use.

The underlying point of dozens of your posts is that the viewpoint of Moscow is a) correct, b) more important than all others and c) truthful. I disagree with all three of those assumptions.

 

[KipPotapych]

hopefully the situation will be so bad in Crimea that most Russian civilians will leave by the end of this year. The russian soldiers will probably not leave until russia starts to collapse, hopefully during 2027.

Some russians are leaving already, and of course looting on their way back home: Twitter link

So the tweet you cited:



It says “wealthy Russians are abandoning Crimea”. Where does it say anything about looting? I wonder if it is the toilets they are grabbing again. Furthermore, the tweet provides 3 (alleged) people (allegedly) looking for movers from Crimea to Sochi, Krasnodar Krai, and Adler. The people, by the way, are Larisa K, Eskander Memetov, and Ruslan Seidametov.

A question: I have little doubt you heard and had a laugh about Ukrainian (probably with some lemming participation as well) campaign on the Russian gas station sites providing wrong information regarding prices and fuel availability with the aim to cause “chaos”. Why are you posting this nonsense as some evidence of anyone leaving (and looting on the way to boot without evidence in your evidence)? I mean seriously, ask yourself some honest questions about all of it. Unless, of course, the goal is to spread the nonsense.

Also, when you talk about “Russian civilians”, that would be most of Crimea, people who lived there for many decades. Most of the rest (as in absolute majority) dislike Ukraine and that dislike ranges from heavy-mild to absolute hate nowadays. What do you think is accomplished here?

Soldiers will leave when Russia starts to collapse (hopefully) next year? I know Ben Hodges is planning to dip his toes off the Crimean beaches real soon (again), but you guys should certainly hold your horses a bit this time, no? For instance, Ukraine needs to survive until next year and past winter to see the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Empire.

Like I said before, it’s like MAGAs and other cults. Zero difference.

PS You wrote one of the “Russian” wrong, you capitalized it. You should also consider stopping capitalization of “Crimea” because that is the reality.

 

[Vivendi]

So the tweet you cited:

View attachment 55144

It says “wealthy Russians are abandoning Crimea”. Where does it say anything about looting?

In 2026, russians have the same position in the world society as germans had in 1944. Guilty until proven otherwise. I know it's harsh, but that's where we are. I am sorry for the few innocent Russians out there.

 

[KipPotapych]

And again with the nonsense that *only* the Russian view in this war should be considered, and also this weird desire to swallow the bullshit that Russia spouts about NATO and Ukraine and the EU being an existential threat to Russia, I can't begin to imagine how utterly stupid Putin et. El. Would need to be to believe that.... It is propaganda, an excuse nothing more.

I could be wrong, but I do not recall anyone suggesting that the Russian view is the only one that should be considered. I think the point is that it should be considered as a real view. I also think the point is that it has been considered as nonsense or bullshit for decades now and look where we are. I don’t think the EU or Ukraine were claimed to be existential threats to Russia either.

It should also be considered that their view may be:

[…]this weird desire to swallow the bullshit that “the west” spouts about NATO not being an existential threat to Russia, I can't begin to imagine how utterly stupid these people would need to be to believe that.... It is propaganda, an excuse nothing more.

No?

 

[KipPotapych]

In 2026, russians have the same position in the world society as germans had in 1944. Guilty until proven otherwise. I know it's harsh, but that's where we are. I am sorry for the few innocent Russians out there.

What I am saying is that there is hardly anyone in Crimea who wants anything to do with Crimea (probably less than people in Greenland who want to associate with the USA, but I know a lot less on this subject than I do about the other). This is real stuff, not some bullshit of an opinion. No one is taking Crimea back is the reality. All this nonsense about “Russians will leave and all will be good dandy” and “Crimea will be ours” is either delusion or propaganda for the lemmings. The same goes for the “siege of Crimea”.

People portray some fuel shortage as means to an end. It is not. There will be no uprising because of it. I really do not get what people are missing here. Anyone who knows anything about Russia would tell you how silly this expectation is. You guys need to get a grip and take the music for what it is. There is real destruction and there will be hardship, but there will be no collapse before the other side ends in one way or another.

Edit: to do with Ukraine, of course.

 

[rsemmes]

Guilty until proven otherwise

Is that your moral standard or western moral standard?
Do you apply the same standard to your country, to the US? To every Colonial Empire or everybody else is "clean"? Are you planning to exterminate all the people you dislike because that will prove your innocence?
Please, don't confuse "pointing your finger at" with guilty.

This thread is not about pointing fingers at, nor about your personal lack of ethics. AFAIK, in English, the correct form is Germans.

 

[personaldesas]

Is that your moral standard or western moral standard?
Do you apply the same standard to your country, to the US? To every Colonial Empire or everybody else is "clean"? Are you planning to exterminate all the people you dislike because that will prove your innocence?
Please, don't confuse "pointing your finger at" with guilty.

This thread is not about pointing fingers at, nor about your personal lack of ethics. AFAIK, in English, the correct form is Germans.

Yes, Western countries have done plenty of bad things. Colonial empires, the US, European states, all of it. Nobody here needs the lecture.

Every time someone on the Western side says something stupid or ugly or something you merely don't agree with, its yet another trial of “the West” as a civilization, and further evidence of collective Western moral bankruptcy, while Russian actions always need nuance, context, and historical empathy.

 

[rsemmes]

Yes, Western countries have done plenty of bad things. Colonial empires, the US, European states, all of it. Nobody here needs the lecture.

Every time someone on the Western side says something stupid or ugly or something you merely don't agree with, its yet another trial of “the West” as a civilization, and further evidence of collective Western moral bankruptcy, while Russian actions always need nuance, context, and historical empathy.

Maybe because everybody is happily pointing his finger in the same direction, without questions?
There is no nuance, they are all a bunch of criminals; I posted that before.

 

[personaldesas]

Maybe because everybody is happily pointing his finger in the same direction, without questions?
There is no nuance, they are all a bunch of criminals; I posted that before.

No, that is just not true. That is your perception somehow.

If you really think nobody questions Western hypocrisy, Iraq, NATO, colonialism, imperialism, US policy, etc., then that says more about your media diet than anything else.

These things are discussed constantly.

 

[Feanor]

Let's stop the off-topic discussion. Hypocrisy by the west is at best tangentially relevant.

 

[KipPotapych]

To illustrate the situation UA air defences are in, has anyone been following the conundrum in Poland regarding the transfer of missiles to Ukraine? There is a huge backlash over the event. The claim is it was done at the request of Rutte and the US (translated from Polish):

Subsequently, Deputy Minister Cezary Tomczyk announced that Poland had "agreed" with NATO Secretary General Marek Rutt and the United States that for the transfer of "several" missiles to the Patriot system to Ukraine, Poland would receive "ten times more missiles and systems of this type during the first day of threat".

Wiemy ile rakiet PAC-3 MSE Polska przekazała Ukrainie [News Defence24]

Jak ustalił Defence24, Polska przekazanie Ukrainie 5 rakiet PAC-3 MSE przeznaczonych do systemów obrony powietrznej Patriot.

defence24.pl

Others suggest the transfer took place at German request (remember when they were seeking for donors to find 30 or whatever it was missiles for Ukraine?). My guess is what I posted above is likely to be true. But that doesn’t matter (internal Polish politics more than anything), what matter is this shows how rare these missiles are nowadays and no one is willing to share their stockpiles, however large or small they are. To note, this entire scandal is about 5 (to underline, five missiles). These were probably used to intercept no more than 2 Russian ballistic missiles, if any.

Also of note, NATO and its secretary general sure play a significant role in the war they are not a part of.

But anyway, it appears that these Russian strikes will be as successful as they can be for a long time to come (probably up to the collapse of the Empire next year). Especially in light of the new escalation between the US and Iran (doubt it will be long though). Humour on that subject from yesterday, while talking: