The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Your opinion. Mine is that Ukraine is ready for negitiations but not under Russian conditions.
It's the same thing. Ukraine wants everything they want, and they're not willing to give anything in return. Their argument amounts to that it's unfair. And it's fundamentally correct, but what does that have to do with negotiations? Negotiations aren't about justice, they're about making a deal. What do you want to get and what are you willing to give in return?

Inacceptable for the UA.* You are knowing that. And in the Anchorage talks Lawrow said that Trump had assured that he will force Zelenskij to accept the Russian terms, and that Russia is disappointed that Trump was not able to deliver.
*Emphasis mine.

I think that's the essential part. For an actual peace treaty Ukraine wants a deal that they can't get by offering anything of comparable value. Therefore they don't want to negotiate.

The Russian terms were a little bit more than the Luhansk and Donezk oblasts. No souvereign country can agree to this kind of surrender.
Why rewarding the aggressor and war criminal? Ukraine currently is retreating (not losing) at the front, but is winning strategically in the Russian backyard.
I don't think Ukraine is winning strategically and I don't think they themselves believe that either.. I think they found a way to deliver some pain and they will use it. But it's far from anything resembling a strategic victory. And Ukraine's willingness to now take a ceasefire along the line of contact, and openly talking about future deals proceeding from that logic is a departure from what their position was back when they themselves thought they were winning strategically.

Just one question...

How is Ukrainian backyard doing?
Fiery but mostly peaceful.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member

The article paints Ukraine’s military reforms as a belated attempt to contain a deepening manpower crisis. Kyiv is offering fixed-term contracts, higher frontline pay and guaranteed breaks from duty, but the measures stop short of full demobilisation for soldiers who have been fighting for years. The central tension is that Ukraine needs to make service feel less indefinite and more humane, while still relying on compulsory mobilisation to keep depleted frontline units staffed. The reforms may help morale at the margins, but the article suggests the harder problems- exhaustion, distrust of commanders, fear of poor training, desertion and coercive draft practices- remain unresolved.
Not only do these reforms come late, they also only come on paper. Several articles have outlined that. For example:


Note that the AWOL’s ability to return straight to the desired units is not new at all. It has been allegedly implemented over a year ago, with effective dates long expired now, and was discussed here. It was clear it wouldn’t work then and it is not going to work now, no matter how many times you announce it as new legislation and new “effective dates”. People do not want to die in the meat grinder and it is a reasonable position, especially in the circumstances.

The same is true for the ability to transfer from one unit to another using the Army+ app or whatever it is. It’s old news, about as old as the AWOL mentioned above (all was implemented around the same time in order to reduce the new AWOL cases and an attempt to return some of the old ones). Presenting it all as new legislation simply proves that it was ineffective last time.

If you dig around, the contract thing isn’t new either. Maybe some small tweaks and whatnot. But good luck leaving after the contract is over. Part of the reason for AWOL numbers. Also good luck surviving for up to 14 months in the infantry. A good chunk of 14 months could also be spent dieting in some hole, surrounded by dirt, with no access in or out. A little more on infantry and assault in the next post.

What is new, however, is the money part. Yet again, does anyone actually believe that this is tied to reality? On several previous occasions I presented evidence that people do not get paid as it is. And that includes foreigners. Probability of Ukraine being able to pay $7,000-10,000 per month to the infantry and assault troops in any significant numbers is zero. Unless promise to pay and wait for them to simply get killed and declared MIA. So yeah, this is not happening. $670 is probably realistic, but that is the aim for the personnel in the rear, which is probably not easy to find either because they have been sent to the very front to assault Russian positions on numerous occasions that we had also discussed here. This new bit of lots of money is probably an addition to all the old stuff that didn’t work (repacked as new here) in hopes that it will serve as another incentive.

So yeah, this isn't much of a reform. But it does look good on paper and headlines “Great News: We Are Fixing It All Up!” Especially because people apparently have extremely short memories or don’t particularly care to begin with. Those “soldiers-to-be” in Ukraine, however, know exactly what is going -> nothing will change. This whole current information campaign is probably a part of the initiative to increase the number of volunteers because “Great Success! Russia Is About to Collapse and We Will Take Back Crimea!” They must think people are idiots. They aren’t necessarily wrong, but when it comes to “50/50” (laughing) as far as your actual (not some low-IQ “RU will genocide you” hypothesis) survival is concerned… They aren’t as dumb as they think they are.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
More on the infantry and assault troops. This one is about probably the most famous assault regiment Skala (would have to use translate of some kind from Ukrainian):

The assault regiment "Skel" has combat merits and good support. And also, eyewitnesses say, people are tortured and slaughtered to death there. The "Babel" investigation

The beginning of the article:

Beaten head, torn hands, crossed lower back, dirty and broken fingers. In this condition, 35-year-old Oleksandr Semenov came to Kropyvnytskyi Hospital in January 2026. He said that he escaped from the 425th separate assault regiment "Skelia", where he was mocked, beaten, tied to a quad bike and dragged on the ground. In a video taken by local doctors, the man said he had witnessed at least nine suicides in the unit, briefly described their circumstances and named one of the dead. The video, which is available to "Babel", was shot on January 23, 2026, and a few days later Oleksandr Semenov died in hospital. The official cause of death is pneumonia.

More:

Due to accusations of heavy losses, the regiment has established a reputation as a "meat". However, "Skelya" loses people not only on the battlefield, but also before the combat - during military training. "Babel" correspondent Kateryna Lykhoglyad studied this issue for almost two months. Over the past six months, she has counted 26 deaths in the rock training centers. Most of the dead men did not last a month in the regiment. The official cause of death is mostly pneumonia.

This is just from the introduction. It’s a long, but “good” read. Some facts about the Rock from the article. The initial stage, the chicken coop, aka the barracks:

- 1,000-1,200 “recruits” are usually in the barracks, many with addictions;
- cellphones are confiscated at the sorting centre (I ogle here at Zelensky's claim of (paraphrased) “our troops can use social media and talk to relatives and friends any time they want”);
- upon arrival, everyone is undressed, completely, has to squat, etc.
- many people sent to Skala come from the infamous busification, those disliked by commanders, etc (one interviewed dude served since 2023 until being sent there by the new commander, for example);
- the stay in the barracks usually lasts a few days, after which “internal buyers” (reps from the Skala battalions) come to pick their recruits;
- trips to washrooms, dining, and everywhere else are accompanied by the armed convoys (they call them “vertuhai” - which is actually a prison slang for guards, my note), squatting and searches are a regular occurrence;
- drug withdrawal is a natural thing, hardly any or no medications are provided, instead people are beaten;
- those refusing orders are sent to the cells, where a double-sized mattress occupies most of the room (one of the interviewed (not an addict) spent 2 days in such a cell for refusing to sit, along with 5-6 others, 4 of whom were on full-on withdrawal);
- to calm people down, the cell is sprayed with tear gas;
- the washroom in the cell, for “small needs” is a bottle;
- many recruits have an official record of “unfit for service” (duh?).

Training camp:

- those who try to flee on the way from the coop to the training camp are caught and severely beaten;
- tents are located few kilometres from the training ground, 35-40 people per tent;
- some trainees live in dugouts (some of the training camps are set up that way);
- if someone lines up in the wrong way (have to lineup to go anywhere), the guards shoot in the air or into the ground, sometimes wounding the trainees;
- nighttime washroom is an old friend bottle;
- the representative (head of the civil-military cooperation group) from the Rock calls it all “exaggeration” and says that the recruits are only accompanied by an armed convoy when they go “long distances”, to the shooting range or the dining room, for example;
- the perimeter around the camp is mined (at least one dude who exploded on a mine died of pneumonia two weeks later, other verified witness accounts);
- the same Rock’s representative after long hesitation: "If it is written "mines" somewhere, you should not check it with your foot."
- those trying to run can also be shot in the back;
- those tried to run but caught, ended up with broken ribs, knocked out teeth, etc (not as in either or, but in combination);
- “scotching” is a normal practice - being “scotched” to a log in a dugout for a day, for example;
- special dugouts for those refusing to fight due to the religious beliefs;
- mentally-ill are assigned to the religious dudes and beaten, despite being clearly insane (symptoms are clear to an average person, some have difficulties speaking);
- those with the HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis C, etc are deprived of their meds “necessary for life”;
- all these dudes (recruits) are called one-timers - that is, the expectation is that they will be used once, so you can “estimate” the rate of survival after the mission.

A couple of direct wuotes:

One of the active soldiers of the "Scalk" witnessed a "zombie apocalypse" during a formation to which drug addicts were brought: people were beaten, some arbitrarily defaecated simply in formation. He says it was scary. He also adds that although he is not a supporter of such harsh methods of "working" with people, he saw how after training some drug addicts "become people, real motivated tigers". When asked what happened to those who did not become a "tiger", he answers briefly - they went through the same BZVP, and went to the exit in the same way, but "without knowledge, without skills, without anything".[…]

A person who is registered with a narcologist can only voluntarily join the army, explains the head of the All-Ukrainian Association of People with Drug Addiction,[…]

"I don't quite understand when I'm told that I have to fight for years to go on, and a person who receives methadone at my expense should be sent home, and I don't have to my children," says Andriy Surai, head of the Rocky, civil-military cooperation group [the rep already mentioned]. There is a lot of talk about social justice in the regiment. Different people fight there: both successful and educated men, and with a colorful biography - recruits from prisons and drug addicts. The regiment rightly notes that there are very few people willing to go to the army, especially in the assault troops, and there is a critical shortage of people.


Anyway, there is more to read, as this is only about 1/2 - 2/3 of the article (via google translate, which sucks in this case, by the way). But yeah, $10,000 per month and all that jazz. One of those escaped:

The man is ready to serve in support units, medical units and in logistics, security, in the communication unit. Instead, he hides from the "Rock".The man is ready to serve in support units, medical units and in logistics, security, in the communication unit. Instead, he hides from the "Rock".

This is just one regiment and the most famous one to boot. Imagine what is going on in the other, smaller, less advertised and public units. The article has a correction up on top:

After the publication, the editorial board clarified that Vyacheslav Borisov died in another military unit. We removed his last name from the list and adjusted the number in the text from 26 to 25. The deaths of 25 mobilized "Skelya" confirmed. Due to the fact that after publication in the public sphere appeared a lot of information about the beatings and deaths in the unit, the list may increase.

So one out of 26 “pneumonia cases” had happened in another military unit. And there is quite a bit of public discussion, so likely a lot more to follow. The commander of Skala has been allegedly dismissed and an investigation launched after the publication. As if it was a secrete prior.

So back to the reform, there is nothing one can do when there are no people willing to fight (and die in) a losing war. There is no reform, no matter how repetitive or actually new, that can fix it.

Some thoughts from a (usually reasonable, not so much lately) Ukrainian on the subject matter:

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The tweet quoted in the first image (part of the reform too, which has been happening since before the “great counteroffensive” of 2023):

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So yeah, all normal stuff, mined (Gulag-type) camps and all. They are doing everything they can to defend themselves. Glory and all.


Edit: I said the commander of the Skala regiment was dismissed. Correction on that point: he was suspended pending investigation, not dismissed.
 
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Vivendi

Well-Known Member
I don't think Ukraine is winning strategically and I don't think they themselves believe that either.. I think they found a way to deliver some pain and they will use it. But it's far from anything resembling a strategic victory. And Ukraine's willingness to now take a ceasefire along the line of contact, and openly talking about future deals proceeding from that logic is a departure from what their position was back when they themselves thought they were winning strategically.
Too early to tell who will "win" strategically. Who would have believed 20 or 15 years ago that the Taliban would win strategically in Afghanistan?

Ukraine just started inflicting pain on russia, the question is if they can keep it up. can the putin regime survive another year if the fuel crisis becomes even more severe? And the Ukranian attacks on russian military factories will also be a big problem for russia long term, unless russia is able to stop them. At the same time more of the Ukranian military equipment is being produced jointly with other European countries; in the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands, Norway, etc. Very difficult for russia to neutralize those factories.

Keep in mind the different level of motivations. russians are fighting and dying for the idea of expanding the russian empire. Ukraine is fighting for their lives. If russia stops fighting the war will simply end. If Ukraine stops fighting Ukraine will disappear as a nation, more Ukranians will be raped, tortured and murdered, more Ukranian children will be kidnapped and brainwashed.
 
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