The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

personaldesas

Active Member

Hoover

Member
“Influence the aggressor ‌state in order to press for an end to the war.” Zelenski is going to start killing more civilians, then Russia will kill more civilians. What else but reprisals does he think that is going to happen? And he knows that Ukraine is at the receiving end. It didn't work in the past, something that hasn't work in 4 years is going to work in 40 days?
There willl be more civiliands be killed because Putin will not end the war. It is not Zelesnkiski´s decision.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I cannot help but feel that Zelenski is moving to a "target London" campaign. Of course, we all know what Harris "bomber" did.

“Influence the aggressor ‌state in order to press for an end to the war.” Zelenski is going to start killing more civilians, then Russia will kill more civilians. What else but reprisals does he think that is going to happen? And he knows that Ukraine is at the receiving end. It didn't work in the past, something that hasn't work in 4 years is going to work in 40 days?

I am pretty sure that the NGSh knows about History, but Zelenski was already advised against the Kursk return ticket. I am at a loss to understand what is he trying to achieve, the "public opinion" is already on his side, not that it matters but, is he hoping for another Russian Revolution in 2027?
I think Zelensky wants Russia to agree to end the fighting along the current line of contact, with support from the west, and with some sort of western peacekeeping contingent in place. This is what he's pushing for.

There willl be more civiliands be killed because Putin will not end the war. It is not Zelesnkiski´s decision.
Zelenski absolutely could end this war if he was willing to accept Russian terms. Putin could end them by accepting Zelenski's terms. Neither is willing to. Pretending otherwise is just silly.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I think Zelensky wants Russia to agree to end the fighting along the current line of contact, with support from the west, and with some sort of western peacekeeping contingent in place. This is what he's pushing for.



Zelenski absolutely could end this war if he was willing to accept Russian terms. Putin could end them by accepting Zelenski's terms. Neither is willing to. Pretending otherwise is just silly.
Yes, I understand that. What I cannot understand is how he hopes to achieve that with those 40 days. Does he even have the ammo for those 40 days?


Hoover
If you decide to launch a blitz, you own all the killing during your blitz. "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars".
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
After finishing reading The Economist, it reminds me of Hitler's re-armament, cutting consumer's goods to fund weapons.

No, Russia is not going to collapse and Ukraine just need to find corpses for those 3 years; and keep the money coming, and then, maybe. Still, Ukraine is talking of a 6 months window and Zelenski is going to get everything done in 40 days... What could go wrong!
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I would be more worried about a large global economy (Russia) being driven into severe economic stress.

Another large RU oil refinery was hit, likely by a large payload devise (Flamingo).

I guess Putin will continue the pointless war. What could go wrong ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, I understand that. What I cannot understand is how he hopes to achieve that with those 40 days. Does he even have the ammo for those 40 days?
Good question. I guess it depends on what else Ukraine has up it's sleeve. If there really is some new option to put additional pressure on Russia, perhaps they have some sort of plan. But it could also all be for show. I recall Ukrainian officials openly stating that they intend to end the war before the winter. Which is not something you want to say out loud if it's actually true and you really intend to negotiate because then the other side knows you need a deal signed by a certain time.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I would be more worried about a large global economy (Russia) being driven into severe economic stress.

Another large RU oil refinery was hit, likely by a large payload devise (Flamingo).

I guess Putin will continue the pointless war. What could go wrong ?
I would argue that it is not pointless for Putin and it is not pointless for Zelenski, because both are still fighting. I think that we all know that Putin has pointed out a few thing that he wants from this war...
About things going wrong, I don't think that things are going to go right for Ukraine for the next 10 (20?) years after the end of the war. Nor for Russia, but I think, educated guess, that it will recover faster and with a lot more people living in the country.

If Ukraine keeps getting huge amounts of money and not too much get "lost", of course. What could go wrong with reconstruction?
 

Hoover

Member
Zelenski absolutely could end this war if he was willing to accept Russian terms. Putin could end them by accepting Zelenski's terms. Neither is willing to. Pretending otherwise is just silly.
Accept to hand over another land to the aggressor without any reliable security guarantees that the Russians will not breal the treaties again, like all other 7 made treaties regarding Ukraines borders and souverainity?
You are right, nobody wants to accept the others terms. But Zelenskij already made a compromise because he said he would end the war at the current frontline. Maybe Putin should start making compromises, too and get what he has? No? But everone demands compromises by Ukraine?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Accept to hand over another land to the aggressor without any reliable security guarantees that the Russians will not breal the treaties again, like all other 7 made treaties regarding Ukraines borders and souverainity?
What guarantees would be reliable? I assume not Russian ones. But if it's western guarantees that are needed, then it's not Putin that's the hold-up either...

You are right, nobody wants to accept the others terms. But Zelenskij already made a compromise because he said he would end the war at the current frontline.
I'm not sure this is correct. He's indicated that he would accept a ceasefire. But that's different from ending the war. Is Zelensky willing to accept the current line of contact as the new international border, and forgo claims to the territories on the other side of the line? If not, it's not much of a compromise. Realistically Ukraine isn't going to be recapturing the territory anyway. So taking a ceasefire along the current line doesn't sacrifice anything. Everything I've seen indicates that Ukraine isn't willing to accept the permanent loss of any of their territory.

Maybe Putin should start making compromises, too and get what he has? No? But everone demands compromises by Ukraine?
I suspect he's willing to make some compromises to end the war. But he's probably not willing to move one millimeter for the sake of a ceasefire, for obvious reasons.
 

Hoover

Member
Realistically Ukraine isn't going to be recapturing the territory anyway.
Yes, I agree 100%

Everything I've seen indicates that Ukraine isn't willing to accept the permanent loss of any of their territory.
Why should he? Zelenskij said he is willing to accept the Russian authority of the occupied territory but not to accapt the tranfer of the territory into the Russian Federation. So it wouldf be an annexed territory like the Golan, which is still Syrian territory by international law.

I suspect he's willing to make some compromises to end the war.
Yes, the whole world is waiting for.

But he's probably not willing to move one millimeter for the sake of a ceasefire, for obvious reasons.
He said tthat Russia seeks the decision on the battlefiled. Until he realize that he won´t win the the war on his terms he will continue the fight.

Putin is under pressure by his hardliners. He must get a result which he can sell as a victory. Otherwise he shall avoid any open window.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I am sure Feanor will provide a more elaborate answer.

Yes, I agree 100%


Why should he? Zelenskij said he is willing to accept the Russian authority of the occupied territory but not to accapt the tranfer of the territory into the Russian Federation. So it wouldf be an annexed territory like the Golan, which is still Syrian territory by international law.


Yes, the whole world is waiting for.


He said tthat Russia seeks the decision on the battlefiled. Until he realize that he won´t win the the war on his terms he will continue the fight.

Putin is under pressure by his hardliners. He must get a result which he can sell as a victory. Otherwise he shall avoid any open window.
To accept a "Golan situation" first they have to agree to negotiate. I one side keeps insisting in cease fire first, does it want to negotiate?

The world is waiting for an Istanbul Accord? We have to travel back in time.

The: "Until he realizes that he won´t win the the war on his terms he will continue the fight." Applies to Zelenski? Is he "under pressure" from those who want to keep him "in the fight"?
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Civilian logistics in the far east of russia have been brought to a near standstill by the fuel crisis. Across multiple cities, hundreds of cargo trucks are spending hours in line just to refuel. Link

Ukraine is also targeting trucks in the intermediate range (20-300 km) from the front line. Link

If Ukraine can keep enforcing these "sanctions" the russian war machine will soon be severely constrained and will start to struggle. Logistics is essential in war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, I agree 100%
Well then it's not a compromise, it's an acceptance of inevitability.

Why should he? Zelenskij said he is willing to accept the Russian authority of the occupied territory but not to accapt the tranfer of the territory into the Russian Federation. So it wouldf be an annexed territory like the Golan, which is still Syrian territory by international law.
Again, it's not a compromise to accept a status quo that you can't do anything about.

Yes, the whole world is waiting for.
I think we won't see true negotiating positions until actual negotiations start, and even then it's not clear it will be public. For the Anchoridge talks for example it seems Russia was willing to take a peace deal where they're not demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporozhye. They wanted the rest of Donetsk region.

He said tthat Russia seeks the decision on the battlefiled. Until he realize that he won´t win the the war on his terms he will continue the fight.
It's pretty clear Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate. They want to kick the can down the road and stall. And it's obvious why, they have nothing to negotiate with. So in the absence of a willingness to negotiate on Ukraine's part, of course Russia will seek a decision on the battlefield.

Putin is under pressure by his hardliners. He must get a result which he can sell as a victory. Otherwise he shall avoid any open window.
This is true but the reality on the battlefield is such that Russia can plausibly claim victory for domestic propaganda purposes. It's not really a victory, in my opinion, but it's sellable.
 

Hoover

Member
It's pretty clear Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate.
Your opinion. Mine is that Ukraine is ready for negitiations but not under Russian conditions.

For the Anchoridge talks for example it seems Russia was willing to take a peace deal where they're not demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporozhye. They wanted the rest of Donetsk region.
Inacceptable for the UA. You are knowing that. And in the Anchorage talks Lawrow said that Trump had assured that he will force Zelenskij to accept the Russian terms, and that Russia is disappointed that Trump was not able to deliver.

The Russian terms were a little bit more than the Luhansk and Donezk oblasts. No souvereign country can agree to this kind of surrender.
Why rewarding the aggressor and war criminal? Ukraine currently is retreating (not losing) at the front, but is winning strategically in the Russian backyard.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Your opinion. Mine is that Ukraine is ready for negitiations but not under Russian conditions.


Inacceptable for the UA. You are knowing that. And in the Anchorage talks Lawrow said that Trump had assured that he will force Zelenskij to accept the Russian terms, and that Russia is disappointed that Trump was not able to deliver.

The Russian terms were a little bit more than the Luhansk and Donezk oblasts. No souvereign country can agree to this kind of surrender.
Why rewarding the aggressor and war criminal? Ukraine currently is retreating (not losing) at the front, but is winning strategically in the Russian backyard.
Just one question...

How is Ukrainian backyard doing?
 
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