The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
If that is true, and Ukraine only managed a limited skirmish and withdrawal, yet Russia still failed to secure Hostomel quickly enough to use it as an air bridge, that'd make the operation look somewhat embarrassing.
Did Russia fail?

I do remember Ukraine saying that, and our media, I cannot remember looking at any Russian invasion plan. When and what use was intended, specially after the coup de main failed, I don't know.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Comrade rsemmes, glad to see you are consistently dubious on anything but the official RU line of opinion !

Here are a reasonable set of estimates from Mediazona, which form the basis of most recent casualty estimates. Im sure we have provided these to you many times, but you keep forgetting.


Confirmed RU deaths by funeral notices, etc are 221K, while probate registry gives ~350K. Given that either of these will underestimate the actual number of RU dead, 500K dead is within the realm of possibility, although personally I wouldnt bet a lot of money yet on 500K. 400K, sure.

As for UKR casualties, you must of not read the csis article (Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine) as the UKR casualty estimate is right there:

"Ukrainian forces likely suffered somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including killed, wounded, and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025"

If you object to any of these figures I look forward to you laying out which parts of the Mediazona methologies (for example) that you find questionable ("Fairy Tale"). Perhaps you can provide better estimates to this audience.
Not exactly.

I don't read TASS, I don't know if it is publishing the same follies; I would guess so.
I didn't say it is impossible.
I read, past tense, that article. GCHQ did not provide any figure for Ukrainian casualties (not that it has to), that was the original post.

I do object to, suddenly, adding 800.000 casualties or 1.8m casualties. That is the Fairy Tale.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well it looks like Tu-95 season is still in swing, with 2 more Tu-95 killed off in drone strikes. While the RU losing more strategic bombers is nothing new, maybe more shocking is that these were destroyed on the Taganrog air base, which is very close to the front lines (why.would.you.send.your. Tu-95.there ?). I look forward to further confirmation, but the video appears convincing.

Allegedly these are Tu-142s at the Beriev plant. Fighterbomber claims these are actually old Ukrainian Tu-142s sitting there for decades. Details are unclear
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Allegedly these are Tu-142s at the Beriev plant. Fighterbomber claims these are actually old Ukrainian Tu-142s sitting there for decades. Details are unclear
This is not surprising. A lot of what they hit is old, not operational, useless stuff. And I mean a lot. It just gets published as victory and



for mass consumption. This is the strategy from the very beginning (and actually a “great success”, laughing). A recent “debunked” example:

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And accompanied conversations:

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I am not sure why the most likely reality of these strikes happening exactly for the sake of posting the “winning” videos is never raised as a possibility though. You would also notice that the question of “how often does it happen?” is almost never answered directly.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
What people would like is different from what is possible. For now, more and better military kit for Ukraine is a start along with increased cyber attacks.
I agree with the support part, but a caveat that the talks must be taking place simultaneously. Euros especially, not Kallas and the like, but serious people (hard to find, lol) and serious ideas, not the ball in court rubbish. I do not believe a blind support, especially with “new and better” kit is useful at all though. Cyber attacks? What do they do? What if Russians return the favour, North Koreans tag along, possibly some Chinese with “no government connections” (wink), etc?

In other words, the support must lead to resolution in some foreseeable future, realistic outcomes. Unconditional as long as it takes is a failure and was obvious from the beginning. Imagine a trashed failed militarized and armed Ukraine between the “Europe” and Russia. The worst possible outcome for us.

However, I also see the impotence of the air defence on the eastern flank as completely ridiculous. Hundreds of thousands (must be by now?) of drones and missiles were sent to Ukraine by Russia and only a few from a couple of dozens or so “lost” beyond the UA borders were intercepted? Who would believe it if told a few short years ago? If you think of the stats, an extremely successful and contained campaign by Russia, by the way. I also see nothing wrong with shooting these down a couple of kilometres off the NATO borders (Balts aside, I guess). It will still be dozens of drones out of thousands. The issue with this though is that a lot of people get too excited and get further involved. What are Russians going to do realistically, over a few dozens of drones? But again, and extremely important, once they commit to this, they are bound to expand later, it’s a given. That will lead to Russians not doing anything until they do and then shit hits the fan.

@John Fedup, you said in ME thread that nukes might be an option for Iran (as in strike on Iran). If you put yourself into the Russian shoes, without prejudice, just assume what they say the goals and reasons are is actually what it is for them. What do you think their thought process is regarding the nukes?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
You kind of answered your own question there
I could elaborate a bit more in case someone missed/confused the details.

Denying the use of an airbase to the enemy is useful, right? Taking an airbase close to the enemy's capital is useful, right? Anyone of those would have been a successful Russian operation.
An air-bridge is useful... for Entebbe and for Merkur. What VDV division was earmarked to be airlifted there? Concentrated, with all its suplies, at what Russian airbases? With what fleet of transports, air control and fuel? How many aircraft Aeroflot set apart for that operation? That is a lot of planning and preparation... That only existed in Ukrainian imagination, Ukraine bragging about what grandiose operation it was able to foil. Where are the plans for that operation? All we have is Ukrainian propaganda.

If the mission failed (so, it was a coup or a invasion? Do you need another division at that airport for a coup de main?) what is the point of maintaining the secondary operation? What do you want that airbase for now? To deny it to the enemy? What is cheaper, to move supplies by air or by road? You have to clear the roads or you have to clear the routes to that airbase; range of a SAM? If the coup (and I don't know how anyone can think, and maintain, that, with 200.000, it was but a coup) that airbase would have been extremely useful.
Russia took the airbase, that was never used; neither by Ukraine nor by Russia.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@John Fedup, you said in ME thread that nukes might be an option for Iran (as in strike on Iran). If you put yourself into the Russian shoes, without prejudice, just assume what they say the goals and reasons are is actually what it is for them. What do you think their thought process is regarding the nukes?
I don't what Russia's process is regarding nukes. Russia might consider a limited use of nukes if they were being overwhelmed in the conventional war with NATO but that could easily go south for whole world. The big difference wrt Iran is they don't (as far as it is known) have nukes to fire back. Also, religious fanatics with nukes is an outcome no one wants which is why is the only blow-back would likely be moral outrage (some real and more faked).
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't what Russia's process is regarding nukes. Russia might consider a limited use of nukes if they were being overwhelmed in the conventional war with NATO but that could easily go south for whole world. The big difference wrt Iran is they don't (as far as it is known) have nukes to fire back. Also, religious fanatics with nukes is an outcome no one wants which is why is the only blow-back would likely be moral outrage (some real and more faked).
The blowback would be that nukes become more acceptable as battlefield weapons, and in the future Russia uses nukes not to avoid a strategic defeat by NATO, but to defeat Ukraine. Or China uses them as part of the opening salvo in an invasion of Taiwan.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
I could elaborate a bit more in case someone missed/confused the details.

Denying the use of an airbase to the enemy is useful, right? Taking an airbase close to the enemy's capital is useful, right? Anyone of those would have been a successful Russian operation.
An air-bridge is useful... for Entebbe and for Merkur. What VDV division was earmarked to be airlifted there? Concentrated, with all its suplies, at what Russian airbases? With what fleet of transports, air control and fuel? How many aircraft Aeroflot set apart for that operation? That is a lot of planning and preparation... That only existed in Ukrainian imagination, Ukraine bragging about what grandiose operation it was able to foil. Where are the plans for that operation? All we have is Ukrainian propaganda.

If the mission failed (so, it was a coup or a invasion? Do you need another division at that airport for a coup de main?) what is the point of maintaining the secondary operation? What do you want that airbase for now? To deny it to the enemy? What is cheaper, to move supplies by air or by road? You have to clear the roads or you have to clear the routes to that airbase; range of a SAM? If the coup (and I don't know how anyone can think, and maintain, that, with 200.000, it was but a coup) that airbase would have been extremely useful.
Russia took the airbase, that was never used; neither by Ukraine nor by Russia.

If that is true, it makes the Russian planning look even worse.

Hostomel was a large airfield right on the Belarus-Kyiv axis, close to the capital and close enough to the northern ground thrust to be relieved. If Russia seized that and still had no serious plan to use it for rapid reinforcement, then what exactly was the point?

Not wanting to use it as an airbridge is not a more competent explanation. It is worse. It means they risked elite airborne troops on a high-risk assault against one of the most useful airbridge locations imaginable, then apparently had no meaningful operational use for it.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Northern Sumy-Chernigov area.

Rusian forces have taken an expanded area of ground around Sopych and the border crossing there.


Russia takes out a rare Gepard with a Shahed.


Russian Molniya drone strike in Glukhov, Sumy region.


Sumy area.


Russian forces have gained ground south of Yunakovka.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles from the 113th TerDef Bde, Sumy border area.


Khar'kov area.

Ukraine has launched a local counter-offensive, trying to cut off Russian forces advancing along the Severskiy Donets river. They've recaptured the village of Volch'ya, and have re-entered Staritsa, Liman, Grafskoe (apparently crossing the river) and Sinel'kovo. Russian forces have meanwhile advanced south-east towards Shesterevka, and contested the village, have captured Rybal'noe along the border to the east, and have taken most of Volokhovka. Russian forces are getting ready to close the last stretch north of the Volch'ya along the border.


Russian Shahed strike on Gavrilovka, Khar'kov region. The target was allegedly fuel storage.


Russia hit allegedly a Eva howitzer, though it might also be a 2S22 on a different truck chassis.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces continue to push forward in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and have begun additional attacks in eastern Kupyansk. Ukrainian forces are trying to counter-attack from the south. North of there Russian forces have taken all of Petropavlovka. Along the border Ukraine counter-attacked retaking Otradnoe briefly, but then they lost it again.


Russian drone takes out a Ukrainian 2S3 near Kupyansk.


Some aerial shots of the ruins of Kupyansk.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have made another attempt to push into Borisovo, but didn't reach it, instead expanding the grey zone. They have turned all of Boguslavka into a grey zone too. During the Victory Day truce, footage appeared adjusting areas of control. Russia holds Nadia and Tverdokhlebovo. Novomikhailovka is a no-man's land. Eastern Karpovka is under Russian control.


Russia hit the bridge across the Oskol near Gorohovatka.


Krasniy Liman area.


Ukraine is attempting a series of coordinated counter-attacks against the flanks of this area. So far the gains are modest. A Ukrainian element has reached Zarechnoe, passing by Stavki. On the nothern side Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground around Redkodub, and contested the village. Meanwhile west of Krasniy Liman Russian forces have crossed the Oskol near Prishyb village.


A Russian air defense post from the 169th MRBde.


Russia's 59th Tank Rgt using Fenix-3 heady quadcopter UAVs in the Krasniy Liman area.


Nikolaevka area.

Russian forces have take some positions west of Kaleniki, and cleared the two forests south-east of it. Along the river Russian forces have taken Krivaya Luka. After a couple of months of steady advances here, Russia has slowed down considerably, possibly taking an operational pause, or encountering stiffer resistance.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian BMP near Slavyansk.


Russia hit allegedly a munitions storage facility in Slavyansk.


Druzhkovka area.


Russian forces inched forward around Markovo. Meanwhile Ukraine cleared out Russian infiltrators from north of Verolybovka. North of there Russian forces have taken Dibrova and advanced to the canal in a new area, as well as pushing northward along the canal. Russian infiltrators have crossed the canal in a wide area, pushing towards Tikhonovka. Ukraine counter-attacked towards Nikiforovka, to deblock Ukrainian forces in the forest north-east of it, likely to enable their withdrawal, from what appears to be an untenable position.


Russia hit Kramatorsk repeatedly. Targets include the Novaya Pochta facility. The damage is accumulating.


A mined bridge in Kramatorsk was blown, either by Ukraine to prepare for the approach of Russian forces or by a Russian FPV drone.


Russian strike on Druzhkovka.


Dragon's teeth piled up in Kramatorsk.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Konstantinovka.

Russia has begun an assault on Konstantinovka from 3 sides. From the east Russian forces have pushed north-west along the eastern outskirts, entering several residential neighborhoods, and the villages of Novodmitrovka and Molocharka. All of the summer cottage neighborhoods from the east are firmly under Russian control. From the south Russia forces have captured an industrial area and almost everything south of the highway. From the west Russia has taken a series of mid-rise apartments, and turned almost all of the area into a grey zone, connecting with Russian forces in the factory complex in the center of town. Note while Russia's area of control remains limited, there are individual Russian penetrations spotted all the way in northern Konstantinovka. The fall of the town appears imminent.


A Ukrainian Leo-1A5 gets taken out trying to enter Konstantinovka from the north. It's reminiscent of the fighting in Pokrovsk where well before the actual fall of the city, Ukrainian vehicles couldn't really operate there.


Russian drone strikes on a series of vehicles on the road in and out of Konstantinovka. Logistics in this area appear to be compromised for Ukraine.


Russian FAB-3000 strike near Konstantinovka.


Russian strikes on bridges in Alekseevka-Druzhkovka.


Aerial footage of Konstantinovka. The town is in ruins.


Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have expanded their area of control around Grishino, and northward into Vasilievka. Meanwhile a Ukrainian counter-attack recaptured a tree-line by the highway. To the north Russian infiltrators continue to push northward and westward but without consolidation.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russia hit's a Ukrainian MRAP and a couple of motorbikes near Novopavlovka, reportedly this was a failed Ukrainian counter-attack.


Ukraine is ordering evacuation of a number of settlements in eastern Dnepropetrovsk, due to increased Russian strikes.


Eastern Zaporozhye.


Russian forces have apparently conducted a breakout attack northwards, retaking Rybnoe, and then entering Privol'ye, Vishnevoe, and Verbovoe. They then pushed northward entering Dobrospasovo on the Volych'ya river. On the way there they passed through Novoaleksandrovka, Gay, and Otradnoe, all of which are now contested. In fact it appears that much of the area thought to have been retaken by Ukraine may in fact have been a grey zone. This comes even as Ukrainian forces have retaken some ground west of Berezovoe, and re-entered the village. Ukrainian infiltrators are also passing by Sladkoe from the west, trying to reach Gulyaypole. West of the Gaychur Russian forces have taken Verkhnyaya Tersa, and briefly took all of Vozdvizhenka, before a Ukrainian counter-attack contested the northern side. In Gulyaypol'skoe Russia has a foothold in the east, Ukraine in the west, and most of it is no-man's land. Towarsd the south Russia took Charovnoe, and is now pushing on Gulyaypol'skoe from there. Russian forces have also cleared Ukrainian forces from the Tsvetkovoe, consolidating control along the rail line. Overall Russian west-ward attacks have substantially increased the grey zone.


Russian strikes on 4 Ukrainian pickups/SUVs.


Zaporozhye.


Ukraine's counter-offensive around Stepnogorsk has completely eliminated Russian presence north of the ravine, retaking most of the village. They've also taken some ground south-east of it, restoring the frontline almost to what it was before Russia began their push. Around Malaya Tokmachka Ukraine has cleared much of the grey zone, pushing Russian forces back to the eastern side of the village.


Russian strikes on Orekhov and positions around it.


Russian strike on apparently a Ukrainian Buk on the move.


Russian mine clearing work in Zaporozhye region, note the Courier UGV with an improvised mine trawl.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepr front.

Russian drones intercepting Ukrainian drones, Kherson region.


Russia hit two vehicles with UN markings in Kherson region. If these really were UN vehicles, it's certainly a bad look. I'm surprised more people aren't talking about it.


Ukraine is evacuating parts of Nikopol', and several villages east of it, likely due to increased drone activity in the area.


There are reports of Ukrainian strikes taking out quite a few Russian drone operators in the Kherson area.


Black Sea/Crimea.


Russian Shahed drones hit several Ukrainian unmanned boats. In principle this seems to be the right solution, the limitation seems to be Russia's ability to find them. It's not clear if the increase in footage is due to an improvement of Russian methods of finding them, or of an increase in the total numbers of them being used.


Ukraine hit

Ukraine hit Sevastopol', damaging 30 residential buildings and a bank.


Ukraine has attempted an attack on 3 tankers off the coast of Turkey with drones. It appears they failed to detonate.


Russia hit 3 ships heading into Odessa with Shaheds.


A Ukrainian FP-2 drone tried to hit a Russian drone defense team with S-5 rockets.


Russian drone defense teams using interceptor drones in Crimea.


Ukraine has begun constructing a circular defense of Odessa.


Ukrainian strikes on the logistics into Crimea have caused a fuel shortage in Crimea.


Strikes.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian locomotives continue, causing train delays. So far these are limited, but over time they will accumulate. It's not clear why Russia waited until now to do this, and why the scope of these strikes remains so limited.


According to AMK, after a recent change in Russian airforce command, missile interception rates for inbounds, by Ukraine, went down significantly reportedly due to Russia changing the routes.


Russia hit Kiev. It appears one of the munitions used was the new longer ranged Iskander-M1 variant. This strike was quite massive, and many hypersonics, ballistics, cruise missiles, and drones were used. Targets include the ground forces HQ building, the FIM Service logistics center, the Artem factory, an industrial area in Darnitskiy neighborhood, Analitprilad factory, an ATB storage facility, the Skyeton UAV manufacturer, the Kvadrat shopping center, the Bortnitskaya aeration station (part of the city water infrastructure) and a near miss on the SBU building in Podol'skiy neighborhood. Several residential buildings were also hit and badly damaged. Link represent at least two separate waves of strikes.


Part of the recent strike on Kiev was a second Oreshnik strike. Initially two were reported, but only one was confirmed. We now know that the first Oreshnik failed over Donetsk region, somewhere east of Adveevka, leading to apparently a second launch. The strike hit the town of Belaya Tserkov near Kiev which is home to a Soviet era bomber airbase, and an aircraft repair factory, but it's still not clear what exactly got hit. Ukrainian sources have shown off some garages that got hit but they're right next to the airfield, which may have been the target.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia hit an agro-industrial facility near Tarasevschena, Kiev region.


Russian Shahed strikes on Chernigov.


Russia hit a parking lot of trucks in Chernigov region.


Russia hit Koryukovka, Chernigov region. Targets include some sort of manufacturing facility.


Russia hit the village of Luzunovka, Chernigov region.


Russian strikes on Priluki, Chernigov region. Reportedly an Iskander was used.


Russia hit some sort of Naftogaz targets in Chernigov region.


Russian drone strike on a couple of substations, one at Sumy-Severnaya.


Russian strikes on Kharkov. Links represent at least 3 waves of strikes. Targets are unclear.


Russia hit some sort of enterprise in Dergachi, Khar'kov region. Reportedly Tornado-S and Iskander were used.


Russia hit a natural gas facility near Mikhailovka, Khar'kov region.


Battle damage after a Russian strike on Izyum.


Russia hit a gas station near Izyum.


Russia hit Poltava, reportedly an Iskander was used. Target unclear.


Russia hit a oil pumping station in Poltava region.


Russia hit the Kanatovo airbase, Kirovograd region.


Russian strikes on Krivoy Rog. Targets include the Arselormetal and a substation.


Russia hit a storage facility in Starokonstantinov, Khmel'nitskaya region.


Russian Shahed strikes on Pis'mennoe, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russia hit Naftogaz targets in Dnepropetrovsk region. Overall attacks on gas production and transport infrastructure have been steady recently.


Russia hit Dnepropetrovsk. Reportedly an Iskander was used. Targets include the Dneprelektromontazh factory, a Novaya Pochta facility, and the Yuzhmash factory complex. Links represent at least 3 waves of strikes.


Russia hit Zaporozhye. Targets reportedly include a fuel storage facility.


Russian strikes on Odessa. Targets include the port.


Russia hit a MIGTRANS storage facility, near Pivdennoe, Odessa region.


During recent Russian strikes on Odessa, one UAV hit a residential building in Galati, Romania. Two civilians were wounded


Ukrainian MiG-29 intercepts a Shahed over Odessa.


One Russian Gerber UAV was seen actively maneuvering near Odessa. It may be a pre-programmed evasive pattern, or it may be direct control.


Russian Shahed strikes on Rokotnoe, Rovno region.


Russia hit a rail depot in Rovno region.


Russia hit Rovno. Targets reportedly include a fuel storage facility.


Russia hit Uzhgorod with Shaheds. Targets unclear.


Russia hit Zvyagel, Zhitomir region. A large fire broke out but the target is unclear.


Russia hit a fuel storage facility in near Novgorod-Volynskiy.


Russia hit the SBU buildings in Lutsk.


Russia hit a substation in Zhovka, L'vov region.


Ukrainian drone intercepts a Russian Shahed with an R-60.


Ukrainian An-28 doing drone-interception work.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine hit a Buyan small artillery ship and a Svetlyak coast guard ship on the Caspian Sea.


Ukraine hit a Russian S-300 radar with a RAM-2X loitering munition somewhere in the Donbas.


Ukraine destroyed a Russian Be-200 in Yeysk.


Ukraine has begun strikes on the new Russian high-way to Crimea. American RAM loitering munitions seem to be the main means, and it's starting to cause traffic issues. They've also laid down at least some small mines, which have killed at least one civilian truck driver. Note that some of the strikes are on clearly civilian trucks. Also note Russian armored vehicles being used, without drone cages, but this far back from the front. The strikes in question do seem to disproportionately target fuel trucks and have also hit some gas stations, resulting in fuel shortages in Crimea.

I think this development is more important than it might appear at first sight. At the end of the day, there are multiple ferries, two bridges (one rail, one car), and with this far back from the front line, it's possible in principle to park sufficient AAA to defend the road. In fact we already see traffic shifting to night time, and additional drone defense teams deploy along the road. So I don't think this will result in long term problems for Crimea per se. Rather I think this might be the tip of the iceberg. Ukraine is likely doing similar work but less visibly to Russian logistics in other areas, which would explain the slowed Russian advances.


Ukraine hit the oil refinery near Kstovo, Nizhgorodskaya region.


A Ukrainian UAV hit a residential building in Udomlya, Tver' region. The intended target is unclear.


Ukraine hit an oil refinery, and a runway in the Sheremet'yevo airport, Moscow region. Some residential buildings were also damaged.


Ukraine hit the Ryazan' oil refinery, causing a fire. Some of the drones also hit a high-rise apartment, wounding 12, killing 3.


Ukraine hit the Baltimore airbase near Voronezh, home to an Su-34 rgt. The extent of the damage is unclear.


Ukraine hit Belgorod. Reportedly HIMARS were involved with some intercepted, some not. At least some of the strikes hit a residential building. Links represent at least 2 waves of strikes.


Ukraine hit Borisovka, Belgorod region, wounding 5 civilians and one service member.


Ukraine hit a college dormitory in Starobel'sk, killing 21 students.


Ukraine hit the Lisichansk-Severdonetsk bus, wounding 2 civilians and killing 1.


Ukraine hit a community center in Shahtersk, killing 1 civilian, and wounding 8.


Ukrainian UAV hit the center of Lugansk near a coffee shop, wounding 2 civilians.


Ukraine hit a bus that runs from Starobel'sk to Moscow. No civilians were wounded.


A Ukrainian Hornet loitering munition over the Izvarino checkpoint ~160kms behind the front lines.


Ukraine hit the ZNPP area, wounding 2 workers in a car, and damaging one of the actual buildings that house the reactors.


Ukraine hit the Volgograd oil refinery.


Ukraine hit Unecha, Bryansk region, with drones. Allegedly an oil depot was hit.


Ukraine hit the port in Tuapse, damaging an oil terminal.


Interesting event, it appears Ukraine has used small balloons to carry drones into Krasnodar region before launching them.


Russian Ka-52 hunting Ukrainian drones.


Ukrainian drones getting intercepted, Moscow region.


Reportedly we have our first case of a NATO fighter jet downing a Ukrainian UAV in Estonia.


We also have a Ukrainian drone crashing in Samsun, Turkey.


Russian drone defense teams with a new interceptor drone. Despite such a primitive appearance, it reportedly carries a FLIR.


Russian drone defense teams in action. One with a ZU-23-2 based combat module, one is the Kochevnik with the laser we've already seen, and one with the new MMG rig.


A Russian drone-defense team with a quad-barreled HMG, and another with a truck carrying 4 quad-barreled GShG machineguns with some sort of fire control system.


Russia's Rubicon Center doing drone interception work.


Russian Yolka interceptor drone at work, Lisichansk area.


Russia has begun fielding the Citadel drone defense AAA. It's very similar in appearance and function to the Skynex and the Terrahawk Paladin, being a 30mm AAA with radar and EO guidance that can be transported by truck and deployed as a stationary cannon. Russia needs these systems badly, but it's not clear if Russia can produce them in bulk. Meanwhile there are claims that the fire control for the type includes AI.


Russia mounting a Pantsyr-SMD on the roof of a high-rise business center in Moscow.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russia lost an Mi-8 doing drone defense work, due to friendly fire. Note the variant is reportedly an EW variant, raising questions.


One Russian UGV evacuates another off the battlefield.


An interesting looking improvised self-propelled pontoon, based on a truck with a trailer. Russian forces tried to use it to cross a river, but it got hit.


There are reports allegedly from Ukrainian sources of increased Russian Su-57 activity in border areas.


An interesting look at an upgraded Ukrainian Ram-2X drone with additional motors and Starlink.


Ukraine's 78th Airmobile Bde has received Centauro B1 tank destroyers. Given the lack-luster performance of their French cousins, and the nature of this battlefield, their value is questionable. They will likely be doing mostly indirect work.


Ukraine's 5th National Guards Bde with a Bofors L40/70 40mm AAA.


Ukraine's 18th National Guard Bde with T-64BV tanks.


We have our first sighting of the Gaia Thunder, being used by Ukrainian forces allegedly to carry artillery shells.


We have our first sighting of Chinese FN-16 MANPADS in Ukrainian service..


With upgrades to the fuel storage, the new Fire Point drones will reportedly be able to carry an increased payload from 105kg to 200kg with an increased range from 200kms to 370 kms. They're also being adapted to carry S-5 rocket pods.


Ukraine has demonstrated a new gliding bomb kit, similar to the Russian UMPK.


The Pavlograd chemical plant seems to have repaired much of the damage it took in strikes, and there's apparently new additions being built.


The US is reportedly selling Hawk SAM elements.


Reportedly Sweden is handing over 16 Gripen's to Ukraine as aid and selling them 20 more. Reportedly they also intend to deliver Metero AAMs.


Reportedly Greece sold 66 203mm M110 howitzers, 139 M114 155mm howitzers, and 88 M101 105mm howitzers to the Czech Republic for delivery to Ukraine over the past ~2 years.


Reports indicate that Ukraine has produced over 530 Bogdana howitzers.


Russia and Ukraine did another POW swap, 205 for 205. According to Ukraine, there are 7000 Ukrainian POWs still in Russia, with ~9000 that have already been exchanged. I suspect the numbers are low.


Russia and Ukraine did a KIA swap, with 41 Russian dead swapped for 526 Ukrainian dead. Note while this is extremely lopsided, all previous exchanged were ~1k Ukrainian dead being handed over from the Russian side. The lower number suggests Russia has fewer Ukrainian dead to hand over. Note this doesn't necessarily correlate to higher or lower casualties or even rates of advance. Russia will find more Ukrainian dead when they begin UXO clearing and reconstruction in an area, while often initially only main roads are cleared and obvious casualties are collected. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this is connected to slower Russian advances in recent months.


Reportedly Ukraine is removing mobilization protections from female medical personnel.


A Ukrainian unmanned boat was found near Greece. Greece is now demanding Ukraine remove all of their unmanned boats from Greece.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The blowback would be that nukes become more acceptable as battlefield weapons, and in the future Russia uses nukes not to avoid a strategic defeat by NATO, but to defeat Ukraine. Or China uses them as part of the opening salvo in an invasion of Taiwan.
China wants Taiwan's chip empire, not the BS Taiwan has always been part of China rhetoric. There would be zero value with a nuked Taiwan.
 
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