The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Beltrami2005]

Sure the international space station has Russian cosmonauts on it two of them right now looking down on you.
Yes the consequences of war with Russia and major powers is indeed the reason neither is all that interested in it
Funny thing is Russia also believes Ukraine would be a good buffer between it and NATO Ukraine Infact was a good buffer untill it was decided that Ukraine should be armed and pointed at Russia. Hence the war and Russia's position that in no way whatsoever will there be the possibly of that happening

Well but it is happening. Ukraine is armed to the teeth and fights fabolous. I have great respect for them.

 

[Feanor]

There is another issue hardly discussed. I have friends in Ukraine. They absolute hate Russia. Its the main reason why Russia will never hold Ukraine again. Its one of the biggest plunders of Putin. That rift is permanent.

I think it has been discussed a little bit, and I would agree. This was a big loss for Russia, yet another reason why going in was a bad idea. That having been said, the split is real even within Ukraine. There is still a pro-Russian minority. But it's smaller than it was, more isolated, and with no chance of ever taking center stage politically, at least within the forseeable future. On the flip side, the same problem exists for Ukraine with regards to the Donbas. There are quite a few people there who also hate Ukraine now.

Lastly, on the question of "holding Ukraine", I don't think anyone here thinks Russia will conquer all or even most of Ukraine. In the areas Russia will conquer a demographic shift is already in progress, and it's something I've talked about in other posts, including relatively recently. You'll notice, despite what you write, that there isn't much of a guerilla resistance campaign in occupied areas, even ones that were clearly not pro-Russian in any meaningful way. Places like Energodar, Melitopol', and other parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson region. I think Russia will be able to hold what they conquer, assuming they can get a political settlement to end the war with them in possession of the territory. There will likely be some sort of right to return discussion after the war, and Russia will probably try to impose a state of affairs where people who don't want to live under Russia will be discouraged from coming back.

 

[crest]

It depends on us keeping Ukraine strong enough to grind Russia down. There is another issue hardly discussed. I have friends in Ukraine. They absolute hate Russia. Its the main reason why Russia will never hold Ukraine again. Its one of the biggest plunders of Putin. That rift is permanent.

I actually agree with the point about the bad blood now between Russians and Ukrainians it's the reason strategicly this is a loss for Russia either way. And the true tragedy of this war.

I think when this is over there is also going to be no small anger in Ukraine towards the west. It's almost inconceivable that there won't be a feeling of betrayal by Ukrainians if this ends badly for them. I also have a sneaking suspicion that post Ukraine reconstruction is going to be mostly a Russian responsibility, it's not hard to see the e.u not investing in Ukraine once Ukraine stops fighting Russia especially as Russian is the country with the greatest desire for stability in the region