The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

Ukrainian forces out of Stepnogorsk counter-attacked towards Kamenskoe. They may have been repulsed, or they may have gained some ground, it's unclear. They did regain some ground in the fields east of there. Most of Plavni is under Russian control.


Footage of allegedly Russia defeating Ukrainian forces that counter-attacked out of Stepnogorks. However I'm skeptical. We have a couple of vehicles and infantry in the ruins. This may be from that area, but it doesn't look like a Ukrainian counter-attack of any kind.


Russian drone operators find a group of Ukrainian infantry in a hamlet near Stepnogorsk, they set fire to the building forcing Ukrainian infantry to move, and then hunt them with drones through the ruins.


We have what at first sight appaers to be a second sighting of Russian forces using an M113 in Zaporozhye. This time they stuck a US flag and a Russian flag on it. However... it doesn't look quite right and other sources identify it as a Soviet GAZ-71 GT-SM multi-purpose tracked transporter. It might even be the newer GAZ-3403 which remains in production to this day.


Ukraine took out a Russian fuel train in Zaporozhye region near Tokmak.


Dnepr front.

Russia hit a Ukrainian 2S22 in Kherson region.


Russian strike on either an M777 or a decoy somewhere in Kherson region. I suspect a decoy. The position is practically unprepared, we see no crew, no ammo around it, and it catches fire awfully easily.


Russian strike in the Berislav area.


The bridge to the Korabel island in Kherson that Russia failed to collapse with previous bomb strikes has been hit repeatedly again, taking damage but still standing. It's unclear how usable it is. Some strikes also land at buildings on both sides of the bridge. It's unclear if this is intentional or these are misses. According to Russian sources the bridge has now taken 6 direct hits.


Russia's 52nd VDV Arty Bde preparing a Lancet for launch.


Ukrainian T-72EA in Kherson region.


Black Sea/Crimea.

We have another package of Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea. Reportedly there was a mass strike with Storm Shadows and drones, in addition to the more usual drone work. Targets were a Russian small boat, a Nebo, Podlet, and Yenisey radar. Only the Nebo definitely got hit in a way that implies serious damage. The 98L6 Yenisey is interesting in that it's a piece of the S-500 system. Note the operation of the radar doesn't confirm the operational status of the system as a whole, and the radar is a further development of the 96L6E radar, and is visually similar enough that some sources confused them.


Russian Orion-S strikes a Ukrainian unmanned boat and a Lancet strikes a manned boat in the Black Sea.


Russia's AVMF lost another Su-30SM, likely chasing Ukrainian unmanned boats over the Black Sea. It allegedly went down in the area of Zmeiniy Island, with the crew not recovered (KIA or MIA).

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian strikes hit Kiev.


Russia carried out a series of strikes across Kiev region hitting Bucha, Irpen', and Gostomel'. Targets unclear.


Russian strike near Birino and near Krasnoe, Chernigov region on allegedly Ukrainian UAV positions.



Russian strike on either Ukrainian construction equipment or some sort of storage near Stakhorschina village, Chernigov region. Sources differ about the details and quality isn't great.


Russia hit Sumy, striking the state university building.


Russia hit Shostka again, Sumy region. Targets unclear but are likely connected to the gunpowder factory.


Russia hit Kharkov, targets include the aviation plant. 4 civilian dead, 18 wounded reported.


Russia hit a train and rail infrastructure in Kharkov region at Lozovaya.


Russia hit Saltovka and Balakleya, Kharkov region.


Russian strikes hit gas infrastructure in Lubna, Poltava region.


Russian Iskander and Shahed strike on Kremenchug, targets include the local oil refinery. Note these are at least two separate waves of strikes, and the oil refinery got hit both times.


Russia hit Slavyansk. Allegedly the target was the staging area of the 3rd Assault Bde.


Russian Iskander strike near Novodonetskoe, allegedly targeting Ukrainian UAV positions.


Russian strikes on Krivoy Rog, allegedly military storage.


Dnepropetrovsk city after Russian strikes. Targets reportedly include a government administration building and industrial objects. These are at least two separate waves of strikes.


Russia hit gas storage in Pavlograd. It was reportedly a combination of Shaheds and ballistic missiles.


Russia hit the Mezhevaya power substation, the Sinel'kovo train station and power substation, in Dnepropetrovsk region, and a rail facility in Dnepropetrovsk itself called Nizhnedneprovsk-uzel. This is part of a series of strikes intended to disrupt Ukrainian logistics from Dnepropetrovsk towards Donetsk region.


Russia hit a school in Vasil'kovka, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian strikes on Starokonstantinov airbase damaged two aircraft shelters.


Russian FAB strike hit the central rail station in Zaporozhye. It was apparently just two bombs.


Russia hit Odessa, targets include energy infrastructure (oil terminals) owned by the Azeri company SOCAR, and a local Novaya Pochta storage facility. Some sources report Russia hit a SAM position in Odessa during one of the waves of strikes, some even name the IRIS-T, but confirmation is lacking. The links represent at least 3 separate waves of strikes.


Russia hit the gas compressor station in Orlovka, Odessa region. This station is used for gas imports from the EU.


Russia hit Izmail, Odessa region. The target was apparently the oil terminal.


Reports continue to come in that Russia has started using a new gliding bomb type called the UMPB-5.


An interesting video of Ukrainian helos intercepting Russian drones.


Ukrainian Vampire SAMs engaging Shaheds in Odessa region.


Ukrainian forces using a Soviet S-60 AAA as anti-air for a change. In this war both sides widely used them against ground targets. It appears to have some sort of laser sight.


A Ukrainian Zlin light turbo-prop was spotted carrying two R-73 AAMs. Presumably it's a Shahed-hunter.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine hit the Druzhba pipeline works in Russia, Bryansk region.


Ukrainian UAVs hit Donetsk. These are at least 2 separate waves of strikes.


Ukraine hit Yenakievo, Donetsk region, targets include the No28 school.


Ukraine hit Belgorod, targets include a residential building, and the Belgorod Arena. 3 civilians are reported wounded.


Ukraine hit a residential building in Kursk, 1 civilian killed, 6 wounded is reported.


A Ukrainian drone hit a multi-story building in Rostov.


Ukraine hit the fuel storage facility in Adler, with An-196.


Ukraine hit something in Surovikino, Volgograd region.


Ukraine hit the Monokristal factory in Stavropol'.


Ukraine hit the Syzran' oil refinery. It's interesting that this refinery was equipped with drone-protection constructions which seemed to reduce the damage but not completely prevent it.


Ukraine hit the Saratov oil refinery causing damage. Details are lacking. One drone apparently also crashed into a residential building.


Ukraine hit the Novoshahtinsk oil refinery.


Ukraine sank the Russian Port Olya 4 cargo boat with a strike, in Astrakhan'. The vessel was allegedly being used for military cargo from Iran via the Caspian.


Ukraine hit the Arzamas device building factory in Nizhegorodskaya region. 1 worker is reported killed, 2 wounded.


Ukrainian UAVs have reached Ukhta, in the Republic of Komi, within Russia, for the first time, striking several fuel storage tanks at ~1700 kms from Ukraine. The extent of the damage is unclear.


Ukraine hit the Afipskaya oil refinery in Krasnodar region.


Ukraine hit a logistics center in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan.


It appears Ukraine tried to hit the Smolensk NPP but failed.


Russian drone defense teams in Belgorod.


Russian forces using a laser to intercept a Ukrainian drone. It's likely the same Chinese system we saw earlier.


A warhead from an intercepted Ukrainian Neptune missile. Assuming the photo is recent, it confirms continued production of the type.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russia takes out a Ukrainian Leo-1A5 somewhere. These tanks have been supplied in quantities significantly larger then any other western MBT, but they've been only rarely seen on the front lines, likely due to their poor protection. It will be interesting to see if these vehicles resurface somewhere.


A Ukrainian infiltrator team attempted to enter Bryansk region but was taken out by Russian security forces. Allegedly it was a 6-man team with 3 KIA and 3 POW. Warning footage of corpses 2nd-3rd-4th links.


We have our first confirmed Ukrainian drone strike on a DPRK-sourced 140mm mortar in Russian service.


Another Russian BMP-3 with Karkas ERA got hit in Ukraine. This is at least the third such vehicle to be taken out.


We have confirmation of Ukraine using Croatian M93A3 light MLRS. Of course the confirmation comes from a Russian strike hitting it.


Another shot of Russia's brand new TOS-3 thermobaric MLRS.


Russian UAZ jeep and light truck with DPRK MLRS installed on it.


A rare surviving Russian Tor-M2DT somewhere south-west of Donetsk.


An interesting and very telling photo of what front-line logistics often look like. It's a motor-bike with baskets for munitions, and FPV drones attached to the back.


A Russian BTR-80 with rocket pods. A reminder, while both sides do this, the accuracy is poor and effect on target tends to be unimpressive.


Russia's 7th UAV Rgt trains in Donetsk region. Russia, following Ukraine, has created a separate UAV forces with their own full size units.


Russia's 8th Recon-Assault Bde training in Lugansk region. Russia started forming the first few Assault Bdes in the second half of 2024. They're light infantry units without organic armor. Previously only Marines and VDV fell into that category.


Russia has replaced General Lapin as commaned of Battle Group North with General Nikiforov. Lapin in general has a bad reputation and was removed earlier in the war from command of Center MD, which at that time was handed over to General Mordvichev.


An interesting video of a Ukrainian MiG-29 on a regular road, presumably operating from it.


Ukraine's 93rd Mech shows off their UGVs of which they have a separate company.


Allegedly a newly built BTR-4 in Ukrainian service. It's unclear who's producing them and with whose participation. Initially the hulls were made in Mariupol', and the vehicles assembled in iirc Kharkov.


Ukraine's 57th Mech has combined a Msta-S chassis with a T-72 turret. Obviously the protection level of the chassis is going to be subpar.


Reportedly Ukraine has formed 3 new artillery brigades, the 60th, 68th, and 147th. No word as of yet on their equipment. Ukraine's last tank bde, the 4th has reportedly also been converted into a heavy mech bde.


Ukraine recently demonstrated an allegedly domestic long range cruise missile, called the Flamingo, but it appears to be a copy of the Milanion FP-5.


A Ukrainian drone recently shown appears to be a copy of the successful Russian Molniya drone family.


A Ukrainian An-124 loading up 3 Mi-24s in Plovdiv, Bulgaria.


Russia and Ukraine did another POW exchange, this one 84 for 84, and an exchange of bodies of 19 Russian KIA for 1000 Ukrainian ones.


Russia has begun cleanup and demolition work in Avdeevka. We also have some work starting in Krasnogorovka, where reportedly 100 locals still reside. Two buildings have been hooked up to the power grid and the residents are served by a single shopping "hut". In general we should expect to see reconstruction efforts start to pick up in the Donetsk area.


An interesting piece on how Russia continues to purchase western industrial hardware to feed their war effort despite the sanctions.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
EU Commissioner for Defence, Andrius Kubilius, just a few moments ago after Lavrov said "europeans are working to sink Trump's efforts to bring peace"
View attachment 53365
I'm curious, what exactly did Lavrov deny and what did Putin actually promise to Trump? I haven't seen any transcripts of their conversations, but maybe I missed it. Do we have confirmation on either one? Let's keep in mind that Trump and his team are also inconsistent in their public statements, creating additional confusion. I also have to wonder if this is deliberate obfuscation by both Putin and Trump, or one or the other, to throw up smoke.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
I'm curious, what exactly did Lavrov deny and what did Putin actually promise to Trump? I haven't seen any transcripts of their conversations, but maybe I missed it. Do we have confirmation on either one? Let's keep in mind that Trump and his team are also inconsistent in their public statements, creating additional confusion. I also have to wonder if this is deliberate obfuscation by both Putin and Trump, or one or the other, to throw up smoke.
I have read the transcription of Lavrov's press conference and to be honest it's quite difficult to compare it with what Putin said in the Alaska circus.
As you correctly said, all the parts involved talk too much and they are all inconsistent in their statements. The EU is included, with Von der Leyen and Kallas (and I know since I had the opportunity to speak with someone who works very close to them that they are constantly in contact and prepare statements together) being largely inconsistent and "playing" the good and bad cop parts.
I see Kubilius' tweet (a soviet born and soviet-trained civil servant and politician, quite known in Russia just like Kallas) as an interesting response to Lavrov, its basically a provocation, something not exactly common for a figure like him.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have read the transcription of Lavrov's press conference and to be honest it's quite difficult to compare it with what Putin said in the Alaska circus.
As you correctly said, all the parts involved talk too much and they are all inconsistent in their statements. The EU is included, with Von der Leyen and Kallas (and I know since I had the opportunity to speak with someone who works very close to them that they are constantly in contact and prepare statements together) being largely inconsistent and "playing" the good and bad cop parts.
I see Kubilius' tweet (a soviet born and soviet-trained civil servant and politician, quite known in Russia just like Kallas) as an interesting response to Lavrov, its basically a provocation, something not exactly common for a figure like him.
Yeah, fair point. His post may be less about conveying his point of view and more about eliciting a reaction.

My best read of the current deal being presented is that Ukraine withdraws from the rest of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The front lines in Kherson and Zaporozhye freeze, Russia returns all parts of Kharkov, Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk, and Nikolaev regions, and a ceasefire is imposed. Zelensky recognizes the loss of Crimea. Then elections can take place and negotiations can proceed about the ultimate resolution of the conflict. Russia doesn't give up their claims to the rest of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and Ukraine isn't giving up their claims to any of the 4 regions Russia annexed in this war. This seems to square the parts about Russia not giving up on their claims, and will likely allow Trump to claim he "made peace".

If my read is accurate, and that's a very big if*, then I think this is a bad idea. I think it will fail to resolve the conflict and could lead to a resumption of hostilities fairly quickly. This outcome couldn't be read as anything other than a defeat for Ukraine, but Ukraine isn't ready to accept defeat. It also isn't really a victory for Russia. At best it creates a permanent frozen conflict, and as we've seen in Georgia and in Armenia-Azerbaijan those have a habit of getting unfrozen. At worst it's going to have Russia resuming the fight from somewhat better territorial positions, but diplomatically even further behind as a resumption of hostilities would be presented as Russia failing to uphold the deal, even though the deal didn't really include Russia giving up on their claims on Kherson and Zaporozhye.

*Given their constant contradictory statements, and the fact that negotiations are still ongoing, this really is just an educated guess. I could be completely wrong.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Zelensky's hot take for the lemmings:





Went to the Flex’s website to see what they are manufacturing. Definitely no “home appliances” in their product line. Definitely dual-use products listed though. Searched the web using Google for “Flex Ltd. military contracts” and didn't even have to browse any links as the AI “helper” provided the info:



So I assuming that Flex develops and makes these drones in some third countries, as per the above under Origin, with support from frontline operations in Ukraine, instead of making them “in-house”, testing on the battlefield, potentially employing veterans from this very war, using all the connections, etc. It used to be that one had to put effort into finding required information and some could come back empty-handed due to simply searching for wrong content or looking at wrong websites; nowadays, it seems, any layman can find info more often than not if only they try. Alas…

As for “outrageous signals” and “trying to wriggle out of holding a meeting”. No one from Russia is meeting Zelensky and no one cares about the change in his demand from “unconditional ceasefire” to “unconditional meeting” with Putin. Signals are coming exactly as they were from day one. The outrageous part should be a real expectation of some such meeting, no? Consider they would meet, Putin and Zelensky… What would they talk about? I mean that literally. They have nothing to discuss, like zero things. Furthermore, Putin will not put himself in the position where Zelensky and him are seen as equals. To seriously anticipate otherwise is pretty crazy.



It is rather weird to spread nonsense expecting to have changed the narrative, while looking like fools. Example (in addition to the above), from the a WSJ reporter, a day difference between the posts:



The next day:



Triumph! Victory! Well, not really, sorry. This is all very weird stuff, obviously. In the meantime, from serious reporters;



Zero ambiguity and clearly expressed (consistent) position. Whether “reasonable” or “acceptable” is a different matter and that is what should be addressed instead of posting and stating complete nonsense. Trump probably understands the reality too and, thus:



More not serious people who may appear to be serious at times:



Clearly a jammer, which obviously doesn’t work against drones running on cable (or different frequencies?). Imagine backpack style “rocket launcher”, lol. Just consider the concept itself, beginning with purpose, intent, and objective.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
This is from the same guy

IMG_2078.jpeg

Who believes that Putin who came to Alaska wasn’t real

IMG_2080.jpeg

Kyiv Post (or Kyiv Independent?) journalist. Bizarro world. Yet, I am a moron, according to him.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Did I completely miss the Sapsan? I read about the Flamingo.
There is another reference in Reuters.

On the other (Spanish) hand...
I cannot say it is well written, it doesn't seem that accurate (the gas we buy from US is more expensive than what we were buying from Russia but, three times more expensive?) but it is offering another point of view about about why we want Ukraine "in the fight". It is not that we fear Russia, it's that we fear the US. (With good tariffs for that.)
 

glen_k

New Member
Curious to hear opinions: who really derailed the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that Trump was reportedly trying to push forward? According to leaks, one side was ready to make compromises, but at the last moment someone made a sharp turn. At that time, Zelensky was in close contact with Western partners. Was the decision made outside of Kyiv? Or in Kyiv, but under pressure?
 

Attachments

rsemmes

Active Member
Curious to hear opinions: who really derailed the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that Trump was reportedly trying to push forward? According to leaks, one side was ready to make compromises, but at the last moment someone made a sharp turn. At that time, Zelensky was in close contact with Western partners. Was the decision made outside of Kyiv? Or in Kyiv, but under pressure?
If you mean in 2022... Boris, but we will have to wait to the Istanbul Papers.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Curious to hear opinions: who really derailed the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that Trump was reportedly trying to push forward? According to leaks, one side was ready to make compromises, but at the last moment someone made a sharp turn. At that time, Zelensky was in close contact with Western partners. Was the decision made outside of Kyiv? Or in Kyiv, but under pressure?
No idea but Trump’s “push”, worthless. His only solution is cutting off support to Ukraine to give his fellow criminal an exit! and make himself look good.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
No idea but Trump’s “push”, worthless. His only solution is cutting off support to Ukraine to give his fellow criminal an exit! and make himself look good.
There isn't another diplomatic solution open at this time. One of the problems, in my opinion, is that Russia painted themselves into a corner, but at the same time has plenty of strength left to keep fighting and even winning (sort of). This means Russia won't accept a defeat, and any compromise will involve Ukraine giving up territory, and hence is being seen (maybe rightly so) as a Ukrainian defeat. If you want a diplomatic solution, you have to be willing to negotiate with Russia. It's the fundamental dishonesty in western narratives around this war that I keep harping on. They claim a diplomatic solution is desirable, but aren't really willing to negotiate. Instead they pretend that the only possible diplomatic solution amounts to Russia accepting defeat. Obviously military reality on the ground makes that very unlikely, hence here we are. This problem has existed, in my opinion, definitely since the defeat of Ukraine's '23 offensive, possibly sooner. As it stands, if you don't want to negotiate with Russia on some sort of give and take terms, you don't want a diplomatic solution. And if fairness/justice is your primary concern, then diplomacy isn't going to get it done. Trump, it seems, wants a diplomatic solution, so he's going to talk to Russia. And if Ukraine isn't willing to deal, it will require some arm twisting on his part. Hence we are where we are.

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with taking the position that negotiations are not appropriate at this time and instead Ukraine needs to be supported into some sort of victory. But the problem is that the will to do that is also obviously not there. Hence why we have this almost schizophrenic state of affairs where on the one hand bowing to Russian demands is unacceptable, on the other hand Ukraine is slowly losing, and being destroyed in the process while the collective west squeezes out some quantities of support, based on what they're comfortable with. And the destruction continuing in Ukraine is largely Russia's fault, but Ukraine's problem. And if you don't want a negotiated end, this war could last years longer, assuming Ukraine doesn't collapse sooner.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The issue is that this war and its eventual end go beyond Ukraine and its territories, that really do not have as much meaning as people put on them. Surely, none of the occupied territory is coming back any time soon (I would argue likely not in lifetimes of most, if not all, members here), but this has never been the Russian goal of the war. If some forgot, Russia was offering the return of all territories they occupied early in the war, less recognition of independence of DNR and LNR, in exchange for agreeing to a list of conditions they specified. Capturing territory, waging the war, destroying Ukraine are simply the means (or leverage, if you will) of achieving their goals. In a way, ironically and tragically, this current round of negotiations is focused on the “territorial dispute”, which never was and is not a Russian goal. This is one of the main reasons we are not getting anywhere and we won’t if the approach continues to be the same.

Everyone knows what this is about, which is why basically every European leader had explicitly stated, some on numerous occasions, that European security is not negotiable. Until it is, and Russia is a part of that security architecture, as it is a part of Europe, they will continue to wage the war and trash Ukraine. I saiid a very long time ago now that Ukraine itself plays very little role here. It is just a battlefield - as unfortunate and tragic as it is, this is just reality.

A very short, but good piece from the IISS:


To note, I do not agree with everything that the author writes, but I think he portrays the issues well enough.

The third from the bottom paragraph is very important:

In short, the Western conversation now frames peace as a stable territorial settlement. But Russia will only accept this outcome if it faces severe pressure to abandon the maximalist goals of its war. And America refuses to escalate its uniquely fearsome sanctions that could exert such pressure. Peace is further away than ever.

This is a very important (extremely important, if not defining, I would argue) shift in thinking and strategy, which is clearly observed and evident from the various statements, including those of Zelensky’s office, such that freezing the war along the line of contact is an acceptable outcome. Moreover, as the author writes, this is now a desirable outcome that Russia has to be forced to accept. It logically follows that this would be considered a win and how Russia loses (strategic defeat that many talked about over the years, though the goalposts had shifted about what it entails, but this is it, in my opinion, a final stretch). The United States is the most important player on our side not only because they provide the weapons others cannot, but because they are the guarantor of the European security and the main adversary of the Russian Federation. This is why the negotiations, the term is used rather vaguely at this time, are mainly taking place between Russia and the USA. This is also why this sudden and major shift in the acceptable outcome in order to end the hostilities took place in the past couple of weeks. This is all extremely important and huge step forward for Russia, I would argue the biggest in this war.

However, let’s unreasonably assume that Zelensky all of a sudden says next week (and actually means it, though he likely does not have much control over it because the military and soldiers most definitely have a say) “We agree to leave Donbas, provided a safe withdrawal of our troops and Ukrainian civilians residing in the area who wish to leave the future Russian occupation and yada yada”. Basically they are ready to give up Donbas in order to stop the war. Would the war stop? Of course not. But there could be a ceasefire and further negotiations and a likely resumption of the war because they cannot agree to terms offered, but Russia would resume the war from a much improved (nearly perfect, in the circumstances) position. Which is why none of this is going to happen and the war is bound to go on as it does.

On the other hand, if most of the other Russian demands are agreed to, they will freeze the line of contact and “trade” the Donbas they are not occupying in exchange. This was the argument I made previously. Territory doesn’t matter, whether fortified or not. This also explains why people’s amazement in Russian willingness to sacrifice numerous lives for some square kilometres is simply not substantiated - because they do not understand or recognize the actual goals behind it.


I, personally, cannot comprehend what’s next. This is where I am stuck. Two options I see here. One is Ukraine is completely trashed and actually capitulates. Two is Europe (Redshift, I am referring to some European countries, number unknown, not every single European entity) enters the war as a fully active participant. The latter is highly unlikely to happen. The former is less than undesirable outcome too, in spite of likely complete or severe Russian exhaustion and weakness once it is done and over with. A midway scenario is Europe entering the war to prevent a complete Ukrainian collapse and draw the line at the river…

Anyway, this what’s next part is where I struggle and severely so. Especially since we are supposed to take Ukraine into account, aren’t we? Could, of course, be that my entire argument is wrong and, hence, the struggle. And I surely stand to be corrected.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I, personally, cannot comprehend what’s next. This is where I am stuck. Two options I see here. One is Ukraine is completely trashed and actually capitulates. Two is Europe (Redshift, I am referring to some European countries, number unknown, not every single European entity) enters the war as a fully active participant. The latter is highly unlikely to happen. The former is less than undesirable outcome too, in spite of likely complete or severe Russian exhaustion and weakness once it is done and over with. A midway scenario is Europe entering the war to prevent a complete Ukrainian collapse and draw the line at the river…

Anyway, this what’s next part is where I struggle and severely so. Especially since we are supposed to take Ukraine into account, aren’t we? Could, of course, be that my entire argument is wrong and, hence, the struggle. And I surely stand to be corrected.
Its certainly difficult to predict whats going to happen next given all the surprises. However, I think one possibility is "Run out the Clock". UKR continues to fight, slowly falling back and killing RU soldiers. At some point either Putin dies (hes in "overtime"), or the RU economy frays enough to cause general discontent in the RU populace. When will that be ? I cant say.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Its certainly difficult to predict whats going to happen next given all the surprises. However, I think one possibility is "Run out the Clock". UKR continues to fight, slowly falling back and killing RU soldiers. At some point either Putin dies (hes in "overtime"), or the RU economy frays enough to cause general discontent in the RU populace. When will that be ? I cant say.
The problem with this logic is that it assumes Ukraine won't run out it's own clock. It's essentially gambling on the idea that something will happen that will cause Russia to simply pack up and go home. But that hasn't been the pattern with conflicts in the post-Soviet states, and it hasn't been the pattern with Russia. Russia is still parked in places like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia and Transnestria. And here the territory is actually annexed.
 

crest

Member
I'm coming around to a firm opinion that diplomatic solutions are only going to be possible if one of the two options come to pass
1 the Ukrainian army breaks that is runs out of operational reserves (or moral possibly) and cannot hold the Russians back.
2 The Russian economy does indeed collapse or popular support due to economic hardships. I find the idea of Russian support publicly collapsing due to other reasons a very questionable outcome at least for the foreseeable future

The two sides are just to far apart not to say diplomatic pressure doesn't count for anything as I also believe Russia will gain less of there goals if they win then Ukraine would if Russias military position collapsed
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The problem with this logic is that it assumes Ukraine won't run out it's own clock. It's essentially gambling on the idea that something will happen that will cause Russia to simply pack up and go home. But that hasn't been the pattern with conflicts in the post-Soviet states, and it hasn't been the pattern with Russia. Russia is still parked in places like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia and Transnestria. And here the territory is actually annexed.
Certainly, the clock ticks for both parties.

If Putin does die (soon), will there be a power struggle ? Who is the clear successor ?
 
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