It appears this is someone's interpretation of some of Trump's statements. It may or may not be a correct interpretation. My read of his discussion of land swaps was that he would ask for Russia to return Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and Sumy region areas. Another version of this interpretation is in the link below. To throw into the pile of "educated guesses", here's another version, this one mine; Russia gains all of Donetsk and Lugansk with official recognition, but the conflict is frozen is Kherson and Zaporozhye, with Ukraine "retaining sovereignty" and Russia having a "right to access Crimea", but on the ground the reality remains a frozen conflict along the line of contact.
Trump has said Kyiv must ‘swap’ land. We explore four scenarios of what could happen if Putin and Zelensky agreed
www.thetimes.com
Possibilities mentioned in the article:
Just by looking at the maps, we can see right away that options 3 and 4 make no sense whatsoever. I highly doubt Ukraine will give up the remaining Donbas. Russia would have to take it by force if it wants and if it can (with “reasonable” resources, time, etc). Do people residing in the remaining Donbas want to live in Russia? The answer is probably not. Zelensky said today (via Google translate from Ukrainian):
"We will not leave Donbas. We can't do that. Donbas for the Russians is a springboard for the future new offensive. For several years, Putin will have an open path to both Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. And not only that. Also to Kharkiv. Now they want to give them about 9 thousand square kilometers, which is about 30% of the entire Donetsk region (the size of the unoccupied territory - ed.), and this is a springboard for new aggression," the president says.[…]
"I'm not going to surrender my country because I don't have the right to do so. And the question is not that I hide behind the Constitution. Is the state private property? 30% of the Donetsk region is my private property? The exchange of territories is a very complex issue that cannot be separated from the security guarantees for Ukraine," he said.
According to Zelensky, the Ukrainian position remains unchanged: first a ceasefire, then negotiations on the remaining issues. At the same time, territorial issues cannot be discussed without Ukraine's participation.
The first option, freezing at the line of contact, is the most logical one and looks good on the map. I have no doubt, personally, Russia would agree to this provided all the “pockets” and “salients” along the line of contact are closed in their favour, and whatever else makes sense, for which they will trade the territories of Sumy and Kharkiv detached from other territories of Ukraine they control. At the end of the day, what matters is not the territory because it was never about the territory. It is what other concessions they will get. Offering a ceasefire in exchange for withdrawal of the Ukrainian forces from Donbas is basically saying “we will continue the war”. I find it hard to see any other way. Which is why I still find it hard to believe the meeting will take place on August 15. There is certainly more situational awareness than is disclosed to the public intentionally or via “leaks”, but it appears that Trump’s admin is trying to manage expectations by lowering them dramatically (though I doubt many are expecting any significant breakthroughs and agreements, maybe aside from the MAGA cultists). Rubio:
White House:
While I don’t disagree with your interpretation, I highly doubt there will be any official recognition.
Regardless, too little we know and too much speculate on. Could be that Trump is planning to “swap” what Russia doesn’t control, but officially annexed, in Kherson and Zaporozhye for what Russia doesn’t control in Donetsk. Maybe Putin will “give up” Donetsk that Russia doesn’t control for other concessions and this is his bargaining chip - though very specific, he gives up the “chase” after the officially annexed but not controlled territories in the south to show his willingness to negotiate and earns the meeting with Trump, leaving Donetsk as the main bargaining chip (ie I will continue the war unless). He will tell Trump that Ukrainian front is collapsing (see, for reference, thousands of UA troops surrounded in Kursk that Trump was proclaiming after his talk with Putin) and that Russia will take the entire Donetsk, then Zaporozhye, Kharkiv and Dnipro, and so on; but he is a great lad and out of his respect for his friend Donald, he is willing to freeze the front where it is, provided the closure of the pockets that I mentioned earlier in exchange for the detached or all Kharkiv and Sumy territories (or not and keep them as a hedge for further negotiations), and give up, even though it is of great importance to him and people of Russia, his pursuit of capturing the entire Donetsk region in exchange for guaranteed UA neutrality, limits on its military, sanction relief, protection of Russian language/culture/religion, etc. He will also offer to start/resume talks on various arm control treaties, etc. Trump will be very happy to hear that. Euros will find it hard to reject because they had already committed themselves to the “starting point should be the line of contact”, but nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, of course, so there will be a tremendous pressure on Zelensky and other decision makers, the whole country, really, to accept the deal. Euros won’t just accept it right away either, while thanking their Daddy, but there will be a lot of loud proclamations, etc. If the process takes too long and the front actually does start collapsing for Ukraine, which isn’t necessarily a remote possibility in its own time, Putin will say that the time is up and a little too late and will continue his endeavours of conquering Ukraine. Since no one wants this to happen, the process shouldn’t extend too long.
Note the nonsense of 60,000 Russians killed in July alone that Rubio mentioned (I think UA MoD had it at just over 30,000, including killed and wounded). This probably indicates that they are preparing Trump for the UA front collapsing argument more than anything else. As if they don’t know that he only (maybe?) believes it until Putin tells him otherwise (and he won’t be wrong calling bullshit). This is probably where the 120,000 dead Russians vs 8,000 or whatever it was Ukrainians since the beginning of the year is coming from too. This sets the mood for “Russia is not winning”, which Trump so far had repeated a few times.
Last thing, while on the subject. Zelensky announced some casualty numbers today as well:
Convenient.
t.me
