The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[John Fedup]

Nobody has this type of money to spend. It's not fun for anyone. But I'd much rather pay an extra few dollars on gas and groceries, then have NATO standby while Putin forces Russian expansionism in Europe, through force and the death of civilians. Putin has gone on record calling the West decadent. One of things he is counting on is that Russians have a history of suffering and will be willing to suffer longer than the West will, to obtain the outcome of this war that he desires. If I had my way, the West would nut up and show uncle Vlad that we're also willing to suffer a little bit of inflation and economic hardship, to ensure that Russia is either defeated in this conflict, or pays such a deep price for victory that it has a generational impact on their economy and their military capability.

I am not debating the merits of substantial military aid by Canada towards Ukraine but rather the mismanagement of huge funding to towards CIVID relief.

 

[IIO2]

I am not debating the merits of substantial military aid by Canada towards Ukraine but rather the mismanagement of huge funding to towards CIVID relief.

No argument there. Enormous waste of resources.

 

[John Fedup]

The good news is that the 155mm shells are standardized across most of NATO and the WEST, so it's not simply one country that we're relying on for production. Numerous nations can ramp up production and contribute to the collective good. The South Koreans among them. God knows, the South Koreans have gotten more than their fare share of support from the West over the years. It's nice to see them give back.

Fair enough. It would be interesting to know the PRC output for 155mm (or their alternative round).

 

[vikingatespam]

I see it as being the likely result of 3 factors.

1). Numerous reports surfaced that Russia was getting ammunition from the North Koreans, so it would make complete sense to me that the South (even if not directly) would counter this effort with one of their own and are sending that ammunition through the United States, for political reasons.

2). It's likely that United States and NATO are spinning up additional production of 155mm ammunition, but it doesn't happen instantaneously. If Souther Korean surplus ammunition helps Ukraine get through another month of conflict as the West ramps up production, it's of strategic advantage to the Western / Ukrainian alliance.

3). There has been a recent uptick of 155mm artillery sent to Ukraine. M109's from Italy. More CAESARs from France. More Panzerhaubitze 2000's are expected from Germany in relative short order. The increased volume of Western SPG's in Ukraine puts additional strain on their current ammunition stocks. Finding "third parties" that can help alleviate that concern in the short term is, again, strategically advantageous.

Speaking of 155mm ammo...would it be technically possible to rebore/modify RU/UKR 152mm artillery pieces to 155mm ? This sort of thing has been done in the past.

What are the differences between 152mm and 155mm artillery calibres? Why is 155 perceived to be so much more effective when there's only ...

Answer (1 of 6): The effectiveness you refer to is a matter of employment doctrine (and its effect on weapons development), not calibre. Both calibres are for all practical purposes identical (although not interchangeable, as far as I am aware). However, during the Cold War NATO countries sough...

www.quora.com

This site claims the diameter is essentially the same, leaving the length of the shell as the primary variable. Im not sure if extra shell nose sticking beyond the throat would matter.

 

[vikingatespam]

The US military manufacturing base (and other Western countries) isn’t what it used to be. This war is a grim reminder on the cost of waging war with advanced munitions. Bloody lucky SKorea is able to help. Just look at Poland’s recent acquisitions. The PRC knows their industrial capacity is their biggest advantage over the West in a peer to peer conflict.

So are we increasing ammo manufacturing at all (in the near term) ?

Army plans to 'nearly triple' production of artillery shells after US gives nearly 1 million to Ukraine

The Army is stocking up on 155mm shells and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems to replenish its inventory and keep helping Ukraine.

taskandpurpose.com

“We are seeking over a couple of years to nearly triple our production of 155 [mm shells],”

 

[IIO2]

Speaking of 155mm ammo...would it be technically possible to rebore/modify RU/UKR 152mm artillery pieces to 155mm ? This sort of thing has been done in the past.

What are the differences between 152mm and 155mm artillery calibres? Why is 155 perceived to be so much more effective when there's only ...

Answer (1 of 6): The effectiveness you refer to is a matter of employment doctrine (and its effect on weapons development), not calibre. Both calibres are for all practical purposes identical (although not interchangeable, as far as I am aware). However, during the Cold War NATO countries sough...

www.quora.com

This site claims the diameter is essentially the same, leaving the length of the shell as the primary variable. Im not sure if extra shell nose sticking beyond the throat would matter.

I'm not an engineer, sadly. I'd be leading you down a path that I'm not qualified to speak on if I was to try and convince you that it was possible, let alone a quality use of Western time and resources, to augment Soviet style artillery.

 

[IIO2]

So are we increasing ammo manufacturing at all (in the near term) ?

Army plans to 'nearly triple' production of artillery shells after US gives nearly 1 million to Ukraine

The Army is stocking up on 155mm shells and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems to replenish its inventory and keep helping Ukraine.

taskandpurpose.com

“We are seeking over a couple of years to nearly triple our production of 155 [mm shells],”

Obviously, however, that ramps up. It doesn't go from Day 1, normal production rates, to Day 730, 3x production rates. The surplus capacity builds slowly and steadily.

 

[vikingatespam]

Obviously, however, that ramps up. It doesn't go from Day 1, normal production rates, to Day 730, 3x production rates. The surplus capacity builds slowly and steadily.

You are an optimist. I assume its tied up in a Blue Ribbon Committee study somewhere....

 

[vikingatespam]

Are there any pictures yet of the Nova Khalkosa dam crossing area ? I assume the area looks like a scene form the Falaise pocket.

 

[John Fedup]

So are we increasing ammo manufacturing at all (in the near term) ?

Army plans to 'nearly triple' production of artillery shells after US gives nearly 1 million to Ukraine

The Army is stocking up on 155mm shells and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems to replenish its inventory and keep helping Ukraine.

taskandpurpose.com

“We are seeking over a couple of years to nearly triple our production of 155 [mm shells],”

It is just not 155 mm shells, it is all military kit and general goods as well. There has been so much outsourcing that the West really can’t produce stuff on its own during a crisis. The COVID epidemic showed this. Hopefully there is some serious rethink on this issue because China certainly has a significant manufacturing base, especially wrt military kit. The PLAN expansion is a good example.

 

[Big Slick]

While all of that is fundamentally true, none of it changes the fact that when compared what the West provided the Soviet Union in WWII, which was truly significant support, the support to Ukraine has amounted to relative peanuts at this point. I'll use my country as an example. Canada has sent Ukraine approximately $600 million dollars of military support and between $1.0-$1.5 billion in financial and humanitarian support. We have the 8th largest nominal GDP globally, at nearly $2.0 Trillion annually, larger than Russia. Sending 0.1% of nominal GDP is not "significant". One can make similar arguments for countries like Germany and France, both of whom also have substantially larger economies than Russia. but have sent relative peanuts.

Food for thought. Canada, the country I referenced above, spent nearly $600 Billion dollars in 2020 and 2021, on pandemic relief. If they committed even 1% of that to help the Ukrainians, they would have sent them $6 Billion already, between 3-4x what they have.

This is not WW2. The people of the US are not invested in this proxy war. Leadership has taken this action without addressing the people and without debate among its representatives. Tens of billions of dollars have been pledged with no idea what the final bill will be. The level of aid you are proposing would surely place the war under scrutiny. What level of aid should the US provide? 50, 100, 200 billion or more? Just print it and add it to the $30T+ debt? This may draw the ire of the moderators but war finances and the willingness/ability of a population and/or its leadership to support those expenditures is definitely a part of the war fighting picture.

 

[IIO2]

This is not WW2. The people of the US are not invested in this proxy war. Leadership has taken this action without addressing the people and without debate among its representatives. Tens of billions of dollars have been pledged with no idea what the final bill will be. The level of aid you are proposing would surely place the war under scrutiny. What level of aid should the US provide? 50, 100, 200 billion or more? Just print it and add it to the $30T+ debt? This may draw the ire of the moderators but war finances and the willingness/ability of a population and/or its leadership to support those expenditures is definitely a part of the war fighting picture.

This is not a burden that should fall squarely on the U.S... NATO has 6 of 10 largest economies in the world in the USA, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. Furthermore, two close allies, Japan and South Korea are also in the top 10. A number if other European countries are also in the top 20. I'd like to see a more rigorous, collective effort to combat Russia. Why? Because I'd rather spend the money now, than have them take over Ukraine and us have to spend untold billions over the coming years, creating permanent deterrence in other NATO allied countries that border Russia.

 

[seaspear]

South Korea has declined to provide assistance to Ukraine unlike North Korea to Russia it has though provided thirty million in humanitarian aid
US to buy South Korea artillery shells ‘for Ukraine’ | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
South Korea sent an additional 20 tons of humanitarian aid to Ukraine - Infobae

 

[IIO2]

South Korea has declined to provide assistance to Ukraine unlike North Korea to Russia it has though provided thirty million in humanitarian aid
US to buy South Korea artillery shells ‘for Ukraine’ | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
South Korea sent an additional 20 tons of humanitarian aid to Ukraine - Infobae

Instead, the U.S. will simply get 100,000, 155mm artillery shells off of them, and flip 100,000 American made shells to Ukraine. It accomplishes the same end goal, without providing direct support.

This is similar to when Britain went bought 122mm ammunition off Pakistan, for Ukraine. Pakistan didn't want to be involved publically, but they were happy to sell it to the British, so it could end up in Ukrainian howitzers.

The other thing the South Koreans have done to help Ukraine is sign a some enormous arms packages with Poland. Getting those packages signed in a timely fashion, will allow Poland to continue to be aggressive in sending their legacy Soviet made equipment to Ukraine, due to the fact that upgraded, replacement options are on the horizon.

North Korea, Iran, Pakistan: Secret arms suppliers keep war in Ukraine going

Russia and Ukraine are seeking to replenish their stocks by any means, including deals shrouded in secrecy.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[Larry_L]

This is not a burden that should fall squarely on the U.S... NATO has 6 of 10 largest economies in the world in the USA, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. Furthermore, two close allies, Japan and South Korea are also in the top 10. A number if other European countries are also in the top 20. I'd like to see a more rigorous, collective effort to combat Russia. Why? Because I'd rather spend the money now, than have them take over Ukraine and us have to spend untold billions over the coming years, creating permanent deterrence in other NATO allied countries that border Russia.

I think you are "Preaching to the choir" You need to address your politicians. I have done just that. Here we help each other with facts on the war. You seem to be looking for a debate.

 

[Big Slick]

Here’s a question for the forum. When the RA has trained their reserves/conscripts and moved them to the frontline, what will be the focus of the next Russian offensive? What do you believe the Russians consider the Ukrainian center of gravity? Has the RA given up on the Odessa avenue of attack?

 

[Aerojoe]

Is there any indication of how well the RU retreat from west-bank in Kherson has gone? Did they manage to move the large amounts of equipment and manpower to the east bank or is this likely to be another example of abandonment of huge amounts of kit?

 

[Leftyhunter]

As much as I would tend to agree with what you said, the actual RU new tank construction capabilities are unknown. I doubt its very high, but we cannot know for sure.

We know with the deployment of T-62s the manufacture of new Russian tanks is scant at best. Sourcing high end components due to sanctions is at best time consuming and expensive. Their have been photos taken of Belarus sending their tanks to Russia via railroad. The figure which unfortunately is unverified that I have run across is the Russians can manufacture three tanks a month vs a daily average loss rate per Oryx ( most likely an undercount ) is 5.6 tanks per day.
Leftyhunter

 

[wsb05]

Here’s a question for the forum. When the RA has trained their reserves/conscripts and moved them to the frontline, what will be the focus of the next Russian offensive? What do you believe the Russians consider the Ukrainian center of gravity? Has the RA given up on the Odessa avenue of attack?

To start from your last question. They have obviously given up their attempt to reach Odessa this winter. Donbas is on the agenda.

 

[Leftyhunter]

Is there any indication of how well the RU retreat from west-bank in Kherson has gone? Did they manage to move the large amounts of equipment and manpower to the east bank or is this likely to be another example of abandonment of huge amounts of kit?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/yskul4

Somebody forgot to take this heilcopter across the Dnipro River. I can't find the video but I saw it today of the Ukranians liberating a warehouse full of Russian artilery ammo in Khearson Oblast.
Leftyhunter