The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Looks like another friendly fire shoot down. Definitely looks like it, no? But all the way in Stavropol? jet down.

This time a Tu-22M3 in Stavropol Region:

Воевода Вещает

Вот теперь у меня очень много вопросов.

t.me

Russian MoD says technical difficulties. Ukrainians call it “the AD system called Fall (as in falling down) is working well”:

Dnipro | OSINT з Гарбузом ✙

⚠️ Ту-22М3 впав біля Моздоку після пусків ракет по Одеській області ⚡ Файно відпрацював комплекс протиповітряної оборони "Упаді" ️Dnipro | Deployment Map

t.me

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainian source says three Migs, not two:

Ukrinform doesn't talk about any Mig at the Dzhankoi site. Only AD related items.

The only Mig 29 on the video wasn't hit by any of the sub-munition. Explosions all around the place except on the Mig29. Only one transport planes seems to be hit. But Ukrinform doesn't talk about this one neither.

This video questions the accuracy of these sub-munitions...

_________________

After Hanna Maliar, now Natalia Humeniuk has been sacked.
Gonna miss the ladies...

 

[Feanor]

Ukrinform doesn't talk about any Mig at the Dzhankoi site. Only AD related items.

The only Mig 29 on the video wasn't hit by any of the sub-munition. Explosions all around the place except on the Mig29. Only one transport planes seems to be hit. But Ukrinform doesn't talk about this one neither.

This video questions the accuracy of these sub-munitions...

_________________

After Hanna Maliar, now Natalia Humeniuk has been sacked.
Gonna miss the ladies...

3 MiG-29s are shown in the first video in this link. We have questions about whether they got hit or not, and there is a question about whether these are working aircraft or airframes in storage.

Colonel Cassad

Рупор тоталитарной пропаганды. Военно-политическая аналитика и публицистика.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[KipPotapych]

Ukrainians are insisting that they shot down the Tu using a “modified S-200 air defence missile”. Again. I think this is a ridiculous claim, personally, but that is what we have. Russians cite a technical malfunction that led to a fire, etc.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-strikes-dnipropetrovsk-region-kill-least-8-2024-04-19/

Update on the Dzhankoi strike. Post-hit satellite imagery has emerged. According to both, Ukrainian and Russian bloggers, air defence has been hit. The Ukrainians call it S-400, ammunition depot, etc. The Russian Military Observer says that the entire S-400 battery had been lost, however the depot appears to be untouched. Clearly, it is hard to say anything with certainty from the photos attached to the posts.

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Наслідки ракетних ударів ЗСУ по російському військовому аеродрому в окупованому Джанкої: перші супутникові знімки. У розпорядженні «Схем» з’явились супутникові знімки Planet Labs за 19 квітня, на яких видно наслідки ударів по кримському аеродрому. Зокрема, пошкодження можна побачити біля...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Противник опубликовал спутниковые снимки последствий удара кассетными баллистическими ракетами MGM-140 ATACMS по аэродрому Джанкой в Крыму ночью 17 апреля. Как можно заметить, следы пожаров от прилета кассетных суббоеприпасов видны во многих местах авиабазы, включая окрестности склада...

t.me

Reportedly, the MGM-140 missiles have been used:

Военный Осведомитель

Обломки американской баллистической ракеты MGM-140 ATACMS в окрестностях авиабазы Джанкой в Крыму. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

The video of the Russian bombers near Chasov Yar I cited yesterday has been geolocated as indicated on the map in the Twitter post below (I think you can see the map without a Twitter account?). This further supports the ridiculousness of the Ukrainian claims of shooting down Russian aircrafts hundreds of kilometres away from the Ukrainian border.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1781189653002858968

 

[Feanor]

Ukrainians are insisting that they shot down the Tu using a “modified S-200 air defence missile”. Again. I think this is a ridiculous claim, personally, but that is what we have. Russians cite a technical malfunction that led to a fire, etc.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-strikes-dnipropetrovsk-region-kill-least-8-2024-04-19/

Update on the Dzhankoi strike. Post-hit satellite imagery has emerged. According to both, Ukrainian and Russian bloggers, air defence has been hit. The Ukrainians call it S-400, ammunition depot, etc. The Russian Military Observer says that the entire S-400 battery had been lost, however the depot appears to be untouched. Clearly, it is hard to say anything with certainty from the photos attached to the posts.

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Наслідки ракетних ударів ЗСУ по російському військовому аеродрому в окупованому Джанкої: перші супутникові знімки. У розпорядженні «Схем» з’явились супутникові знімки Planet Labs за 19 квітня, на яких видно наслідки ударів по кримському аеродрому. Зокрема, пошкодження можна побачити біля...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Противник опубликовал спутниковые снимки последствий удара кассетными баллистическими ракетами MGM-140 ATACMS по аэродрому Джанкой в Крыму ночью 17 апреля. Как можно заметить, следы пожаров от прилета кассетных суббоеприпасов видны во многих местах авиабазы, включая окрестности склада...

t.me

Reportedly, the MGM-140 missiles have been used:

Военный Осведомитель

Обломки американской баллистической ракеты MGM-140 ATACMS в окрестностях авиабазы Джанкой в Крыму. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

The video of the Russian bombers near Chasov Yar I cited yesterday has been geolocated as indicated on the map in the Twitter post below (I think you can see the map without a Twitter account?). This further supports the ridiculousness of the Ukrainian claims of shooting down Russian aircrafts hundreds of kilometres away from the Ukrainian border.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1781189653002858968

I don't think the comparison of the Su-25s and Tu-22M3 is valid. It's one thing if a Su-25 flying very low to the ground in an area where Ukrainian SHORAD is known to be depleted, actively maneuvering and only popping up briefly to carry out a strike manages to be survivable. That's what the Su-25 was designed for. And the SM3 has been spotted carrying EW pods too. Compare this to a Tu-22M3 somewhere over Russian territory, thinking itself safe, doing a simple high-altitude cruise missile launch in what they believe to be uncontested airspace. And consider that NATO AEW/ELINT/SIGINT aircraft can watch each of these launches and give Ukraine the information it needs to potentially engage this unsuspecting target. It's completely, in principle, possible to have a scenario where the Tu-22M3 is getting engaged and the Su-25 isn't.

On the flip side, of course the technical malfunction issue is likelier. The Tu-22M3 fleet is old, has been service for decades, and is seeing a lot of active use right now. Increased accident rates are to be expected.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Fair point.

I am not sure thinking themselves being safe is entirely valid though since they are (likely) well aware of those factors and possibly more. Unless they believe with a high degree of certainty that Ukraine does not have the capabilities to conduct such intercepts?

I also think this would be a more or less regular occurrence if such capabilities existed. Otherwise, these are fairly random events where malfunction becomes the most likely logical explanation. Even (another) friendly fire event is more likely than the Ukrainian claims.

Edit: I was also thinking that given the relatively heavy use of these planes, it is actually somewhat surprising we don’t see more of these type of events.

 

[Fredled]

I'm surprised that a malfunction appears so rapidly on the plane, causing the dead of one pilot and the ejection of the other.

 

[Feanor]

I'm surprised that a malfunction appears so rapidly on the plane, causing the dead of one pilot and the ejection of the other.

The bomber has a crew of 4. The current report from Russian sources states that an engine failed and caught fire. The commander of the bomber ejected his crew, and then stayed on board to direct the jet away from any buildings or structures. One of the ejected pilots/WOs died.

 

[KipPotapych]

Another video of the Russians air force allegedly operating directly over Ukrainian positions. The video is pretty crazy, especially if it is somewhat common:

ИЗНАНКА

❗️Эффектные кадры работы российской авиации по окопам ВСУ "Аж жару почувствовал..." ИЗНАНКА ★ Наш Чат ★ Прислать новость

t.me

Some serious bombardment in Chasov Yar:

ИЗНАНКА

❗️Кадры нанесения авиационных ударов по Часов Яру, к окраинам которого подошли российские войска. ИЗНАНКА ★ Наш Чат ★ Прислать новость

t.me

Pentagon is reportedly assembling a package for Ukraine that will be ready to move immediately upon approval of the bill, which will (pretty much a certainty) happen tomorrow. No details aside from artillery shells and air defense ammunition. Some items are said to reach Ukraine within days and some within weeks.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/19/pentagon-prepares-package-of-artillery-air-defenses-for-ukraine-as-house-sets-to-vote-00153328

 

[KipPotapych]

The Hangar Forever. Our well protected hero remains very active around Krasnogorovka, reaching the factory in the center without being fired upon by Ukrainian troops. Based on the way it's moving around, I'm almost tempted to think it's intentionally trying to draw enemy fire. Don't mind the obnoxious soundtrack (someone was trying to be funny). What's telling is that the previous Russian mechanized assault in Krasnogorovka also didn't draw any anti-vehicle fires from Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine may have either pulled back from some of these areas or may be short on munitions, both artillery and infantry-carried anti-tank.

Царь-Мангал рашит Красногоровку

Ничего более эпичного сегодня уже не будет. Царь-Мангал рашит Красногоровку, катается по занятой врагом Красногоровке и доезжает до здания завода в центре Красногоровки. После чего спокойно уезжает из Красногоровки. Пусть тем, кто смеялся над ним будет стыдно. Съемки велись на дрон поставленный по…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Is there a time stamp on that video that you know of, Feanor? Ukrainians have claimed to have this one destroyed on April 9:

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

"Танк-черепаху", що брав участь в атаці на Красногорівку, було знищено ударом по ангару, що було геолоковано командою "КіберБорошно". Також було знищено танки, що стояли поруч, кількість встановлюється.

t.me

Not that it is particularly important.

Fighterbimber reports another Mig-29 being hit at the same airport, definitely destroyed, another S-300 launcher, and another radar:

Fighterbomber

Друзья, докладываю. "Авиаторское" в Днепропетровске больше не хочет быть аэродромом военной авиации и после сегодняшнего контрольного удара решило выполнить приказ Темнейшего и демилитаризировалось полностью, со всевозможными спецэффектами всеми силами изображая из себя макет и фотошоп. Весь...

t.me

Ukrainian tracking blog confirms the destruction citing the same video:

Війна в Україні. Втрати техніки.

Уничтожение самолета МиГ-29 ВСУ в н.п. Авиаторское Днепропетровской области. (48°21'41.8"N 35°05'20.5"E) https://t.me/fighter_bomber/16415

t.me

Війна в Україні. Втрати техніки.

Уничтожение РЛС 79К6 Пеликан ВСУ рядом с н.п. Новопокровка Днепропетровской области. https://t.me/fighter_bomber/16415

t.me

Війна в Україні. Втрати техніки.

Уничтожение пусковой установки 5П85С комплекса С-300ПС (С-300) ВСУ рядом с н.п. Новониколаевка Днепропетровской области. (48°34'04.7"N 34°25'14.2"E) https://t.me/fighter_bomber/16415

t.me

House passed the Ukrainian aid bill:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/20/congress/house-clears-ukraine-aid-00153493

They also passed a REPO bill to confiscate Russian assets siting in the US banks:

Congress passes bill that could unlock billions in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

More than $6 billion of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are sitting in U.S. banks.

www.nbcnews.com

The latter is not kosher at all, in my opinion. It is also ironic that they keep saying “for reconstruction of Ukraine”, while it has been reported a number of times all over the place that funds are to be used for military aid. The same is true for the funds sitting in the EU that the US is pressuring them to act upon, the funds to be used for reconstruction of Ukraine, but the same reports cite officials stating that Ukraine needs those funds now. Haha.

Edit: Saw the following and remembered that there was recently a lot of talk of the Russian army using Starlink, some commenting that it isn’t exactly possible to obtain one in Russia. I have seen ads, including the one below, selling Starlink terminals in Russia. This ad offers one for about $210-230, depending on the model. Activation is $50 and monthly payment is $120. Payments are done via a third party, usually in the EU. There is a warming that it generally doesn’t work in Russia except for the bordering regions.

Военный Осведомитель

Комплект Starlink X V.2 GEN 2.0 (Спутниковая связь и интернет) Цена: 210000₽ Комплект Starlink GEN 3.0 (Спутниковая связь и интернет) Цена:230000₽ В комплект входят: - тарелка (приемник); - ⁠Wi-Fi роутер; - ⁠провод питания - ⁠кабель подключения. Активация 5000₽ Аб плата 12000₽...

t.me

 

[Fredled]

Here is one of the reasons why Russia could win the war.
Sometimes I feel desperate, as an European...

More than half of the GBP 900 million military aid fund for Ukraine administered by the British Ministry of Defense has not been used due to bureaucratic delays in contracting.
.....
Defense ministers from the donor countries have admitted that some of the weapons laid down in the contracts already signed will not arrive in Ukraine until the spring of 2025.
.....
It was conceived as a flexible, low-bureaucracy facility

link
_______________

On a positive note, Lithuania will transfer one L-39ZA Albatros in a disassembled package. A 40+ years old training jet which can also be used for ground attacks.
Waiting for the European /British red tape to untie... it's better than nothing.
link

 

[Fredled]

hey also passed a REPO bill to confiscate Russian assets siting in the US banks:

www.nbcnews.com
Congress passes bill that could unlock billions in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
More than $6 billion of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are sitting in U.S. banks.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

The latter is not kosher at all, in my opinion. It is also ironic that they keep saying “for reconstruction of Ukraine”, while it has been reported a number of times all over the place that funds are to be used for military aid.

6 Billion out of 300 is o big deal. But it sets a dangerous precedent. As explained in the article it could undermine the reputation of US financial institutions.
Personally, I don;t think that they take much risk with such a small sum. And everybody in the world is aware of what the Russians are doing and why the assets are confiscated. Everybody understands that this confiscation is not political or personal but because Russia did made material damages to Ukraine for several times this sum, and caused more than 110 Billion in extra spending in the West. Even those in the Global South who pretend to side by Russia or be neutral understand that.

Europeans have rejected the Idea so far, thought it's not ruled out indefinitely, because $300B is big money and it does have consequences that you better be aware of before proceeding. One of the consequence is that setting a peace agreement with Russia will be very difficult after that. Russians will be in their right to say that the money was stolen and it won;t help the talks.

IMO this money can only be confiscated after the war, by a decision of the International Tribunal of Justice and proper assessment of the damages.

Yes, Ukraine and their allies need this money now for buying weapons as it's more urgent than reconstruction. But this money doesn't have to come from frozen assets.
At the very worse, frozen assets can be used as collateral for a loan to an Ukrainian aid fund. As frozen assets are likely to be seized after the war anyway.

The only way assets won't be seized and spend for Ukraine after the war, is if there is a real regime change in Russia, and Russia makes a U-turn in its foreign policies. We can dream...

 

[KipPotapych]

3 MiG-29s are shown in the first video in this link. We have questions about whether they got hit or not, and there is a question about whether these are working aircraft or airframes in storage.

Colonel Cassad

Рупор тоталитарной пропаганды. Военно-политическая аналитика и публицистика.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Ukrainian sources suggest that two Migs were hit, one has been destroyed and one was seriously damaged:

Dnipro | OSINT з Гарбузом ✙

⚠️Удар РФ по аеродрому "Авіаторський" в Дніпрі та небезпека "Орлан-10" ➡️Російські телеграм-канали публікують відео нанесення удару балістичним касетним озброєнням по техніці, що знаходилась на аеродромі «Авіаторське» в Дніпропетровській області, майже за 100 км від лінії фронту. Загалом...

t.me

Via Telegram translation:
[…]If we talk about yesterday's situation, then one of the MiG-29s was definitely destroyed, the second one was damaged by shrapnel.[…]

The same sources claims that one of the Orlans was shot down, but there were several watching and transmitting the coordinates. It also claims that “as many as 6 ballistic cluster missiles (Iskander-M) flew over the airfield”. So it could very well be that we didn’t see the entire footage of the attack.

It also mentions that as of 2024, Ukraine had 40-45 combat capable Mig-29s, so the sustained loss is serious (add one more we saw today).

There is also a bit of discussion about Orlans that I found interesting for myself and how they are problematic for the Ukrainian forces. I will just copy paste the Telegram translation here in case others may be interested and maybe someone (Feanor?) can comment if there is something else to add or counter:

Why is the Orlan-10 UAV so dangerous?

It can fly up to 120 km at a speed of 90-150 km/h. But the main problem lies not in this, but in the following two indicators:

The shooting range of the "Orlan" camera is 10 km, while it gives quite accurate coordinates. In fact, it is almost impossible to calculate what he "painted", and, accordingly, to promptly withdraw the discovered military equipment as well. If "Orlan" shoots down any object/movement within a radius of 10 km from the place of shooting, it could be noticed.

A flight height of up to 5 km, which makes it impossible to use small arms to destroy UAVs. It should also be taken into account that the short-range air defense system is also physically insufficient to shoot it down. In addition, the Russian Federation uses quite interesting tactics to attack our positions:

1. UAVs fly lines at maximum height;
2. fly to a depth of up to 120 km;
3. search for self-propelled guns, HIMARS, air defense complexes, accumulations of equipment;
4. transfer information to "Iskander" calculations.

Therefore, the problem is obvious - there are many routes of "passing" our air defense lines.

In addition, we do not have so many missiles for air defense systems, not to mention their production. And the price of one such "Orlan" is $120,000, which is less than the cost of "Shahed-136" ($193,000) + Shoigu said that in July 2023, the supply of unmanned systems "Orlan-10" and "Orlan-30" to Russian troops increased 53 times. The rate of production of reconnaissance UAVs of the "Orlan" type is stated at the level of more than 1,000 units/year, i.e. approximately more than 80 UAVs per month.

One more feature that makes the UAV "Orlan" as versatile as possible: instead of a camera, you can attach a EW system, or a direction finder that detects a cluster of phones. So, a pair of 2 Orlan UAVs, one reading the coordinates and the other jamming the radar/identifying potential targets, is a really big problem for our Defense Forces.

One of the options for solving this problem is to transfer to us Western samples, of which, believe me, there are enough. For better understanding:

The USA has a stockpile of 7,000 missiles for the MIM-23 Hawk air defense system, which has already been handed over to us. These missiles work perfectly at an altitude of 5 km, so this is a good option.

Analogs from European countries will also be suitable, such as the Swedish light portable air defense system RBS-70; the British Stormer air defense system with Starstreak missiles.

But still, the enemy produces 1,000 units per year and is scaling up its capabilities. We simply do not have enough air defense systems, and especially missiles for them. And the partners drag with the transfer of these weapons.

 

[Ananda]

Europeans have rejected the Idea so far, thought it's not ruled out indefinitely, because $300B is big money and it does have consequences that you better be aware of before proceeding.

It is not the consequences to Russia that many Western politicians that being warned by the market. It is consequences toward Western Financial market credibility. Western Financial market attraction to International investors are on safety and reliability of assets values being invested in the market.

The regulation so far can only confiscate the financial assets if it is against the rules of money laundry or if the owners of the assets makes war against that particular Western nation. Russian assets freeze actually is beyond 'normal' regulation as Ukraine is not part of any Western nations (that the Russian assets being stored).

Which is why other Nations especially in Global South now begin to reduce their holdings on Western Assets or their assets on Western Banks and FI. This is also why Western Market players and Banks keep warning their Politicians not to damage more Western Financial market credibilities. This is why other Nations especially non collective West and Allies, begin to work more on alternative financial markets.

 

[koxinga]

Why is the Orlan-10 UAV so dangerous?

It can fly up to 120 km at a speed of 90-150 km/h. But the main problem lies not in this, but in the following two indicators:

The shooting range of the "Orlan" camera is 10 km, while it gives quite accurate coordinates. In fact, it is almost impossible to calculate what he "painted", and, accordingly, to promptly withdraw the discovered military equipment as well. If "Orlan" shoots down any object/movement within a radius of 10 km from the place of shooting, it could be noticed.

A flight height of up to 5 km, which makes it impossible to use small arms to destroy UAVs. It should also be taken into account that the short-range air defense system is also physically insufficient to shoot it down. In addition, the Russian Federation uses quite interesting tactics to attack our positions:

1. UAVs fly lines at maximum height;
2. fly to a depth of up to 120 km;
3. search for self-propelled guns, HIMARS, air defense complexes, accumulations of equipment;
4. transfer information to "Iskander" calculations.

Therefore, the problem is obvious - there are many routes of "passing" our air defense lines.

Gun based AA such as the Bofos L70 seems to be the cost effective option. Oerlikon GDF 35mm is more plentiful but has slightly less range.

 

[Feanor]

Gun based AA such as the Bofos L70 seems to be the cost effective option. Oerlikon GDF 35mm is more plentiful but has slightly less range.

I suspect range might be an issue. I.e. it outranges most AAA. Density might also be an issue. Can you saturate the front line with so much AAA that it can effectively down most if not all Russian UAS before they call down something nasty on your head? If not, Russia can start picking at the edges of whatever you decided to protect with the assets you do have, slowly (or quickly?) rolling back your IADS. As it stands, things as cheap and simple as artillery shells can't be provided in sufficient quantities. So the idea that Ukraine will be flooded with AAA in quantities enough to shut down Russian UAS ops seems unlikely. And let's not forget, Russia has the same problem, despite having more then ample resources. I don't think there is a realistic scenario where either side will be able to so thorough mass AAA that UAS can't operate.

 

[koxinga]

I suspect range might be an issue. I.e. it outranges most AAA. Density might also be an issue. Can you saturate the front line with so much AAA that it can effectively down most if not all Russian UAS before they call down something nasty on your head? If not, Russia can start picking at the edges of whatever you decided to protect with the assets you do have, slowly (or quickly?) rolling back your IADS. As it stands, things as cheap and simple as artillery shells can't be provided in sufficient quantities. So the idea that Ukraine will be flooded with AAA in quantities enough to shut down Russian UAS ops seems unlikely. And let's not forget, Russia has the same problem, despite having more then ample resources. I don't think there is a realistic scenario where either side will be able to so thorough mass AAA that UAS can't operate.

If we accept the specs of the Orlan-10 (below) to be accurate, it would close to the effective range of a 40mm AAA.

I'm not suggesting AAA / 40mm as a silver bullet solution but it is clearly an important component of a multi-layered IADS, especially for Group 1 - 2 UAS. IADS (local or theatre level) beyond the capabilities to detect and prioritize targets would also need the right tools for the job.

Orlan-10 Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) - Airforce Technology

The Orlan-10 is a medium-range, multi-purpose uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) developed by Russian firm Special Technology Center LLC (ООО Специальный…

www.airforce-technology.com

L/70 L70 L-70 Bofors 40mm automatic anti-aircraft gun data | Sweden Swedish military army light heavy weapons | Sweden Swedish army military equipment vehicles UK

L/70 L70 L-70 Bofors 40mm automatic anti-aircraft gun air defence system Sweden technical data fact sheet pictures video

armyrecognition.com

 

[vikingatespam]

Gun based AA such as the Bofos L70 seems to be the cost effective option. Oerlikon GDF 35mm is more plentiful but has slightly less range.

Good luck hitting a small target in 3 dimensions at 5km range with a flak piece. Maybe if you were radar guided with proximity shells. The west needs a short range, light weight cheap anti-drone weapon, and thats likely to be some sort of radar guided small missile.

 

[Fredled]

The regulation so far can only confiscate the financial assets if it is against the rules of money laundry or if the owners of the assets makes war against that particular Western nation. Russian assets freeze actually is beyond 'normal' regulation as Ukraine is not part of any Western nations (that the Russian assets being stored).

Which is why other Nations especially in Global South now begin to reduce their holdings on Western Assets or their assets on Western Banks and FI.

The freezing of Russian assets is a case of force majeure superseding regulations.
Russia, since February 2022, is not a country like another anymore. Russia is bombing Ukraine daily, with massive amounts of shells and missiles, so freezing their assets is normal and logical.

I don't think that the validity of the asset freeze is contested anywhere in the world, save Iran, Syria or NK who have their own assets frozen by the US. Not every country is freezing assets but every country understands why we do.

Global South (which is not that much "South" by the way) doesn't reduce their Western Assets for this reason, but because their own economies and banking systems became safer and more profitable. Developing countries offer more growth opportunities, even if it can be bumpy at times, than the West. So it's logical that they invest in their own businesses, in their own country.

The other reason is the huge debt piling up like they were no tomorrow in the US, UK, France, Belgium, Italy and Spain to quote only the worse ones. It's not sound anymore to place huge amounts of sovereign fund money into sovereign bonds of most of the major Western countries.

Now, there is a big difference between freezing and seizure. Freezing supposes that the money still belongs to Russia and will be given back once things settle down. Which can take decades (see Iran) but ultimately Russia doesn't lose a cent.
If the assets are seized and spent, this is not fair because, assume that Putin is replaced by a pro-West leadership, we will owe this money our new friends. Among other cases where it can be a problem.
Any country who seized the assets would be in debt to Russia in the future, for generations. And this hurts the West's credibility.

Sorry for the off-topic.

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Gun based AA such as the Bofos L70 seems to be the cost effective option. Oerlikon GDF 35mm is more plentiful but has slightly less range.

Good lucky hitting a small target in 3 dimensions at 5km range with a flak piece. Maybe if you were radar guided with proximity shells. The west needs a short range, light weight cheap anti-drone weapon, and that's likely to be some sort of radar guided small missile.

I agree with vikingatespam. Old Flak guns could hit planes in WW2 and the 50's, but Orlans are much smaller targets. I don't think these guns can fire at a target flying 5km high. That would suppose a 10km range unless they fire at the vertical.

The new German anti drone system has only a 2km range. (What was his name again? Skynex?)

 

[benignstrategicenvironment]

The freezing of Russian assets is a case of force majeure superseding regulations.

This is wrong.

What I believe you're trying to say is that asset seizure is against the rules but justified due to Russia's actions.

There is an idea of "circumstances precluding wrongfulness" within the law on state responsibility in international law. The law on state responsibility is essentially the mechanism used to determine if a state has breached their international obligations. circumstances precluding wrongfulness can be conceived as defences or situations where it is permissible for a state to breach their obligations.

Force majeure is a circumstance precluding wrongfulness, however it only applies to involuntary situations (where the state has no choice at all) (article 23). In this instance seizing Russian assets is a choice. Countermeasures is the more appropriate circumstance precluding wrongfulness for this type of action. Countermeasures are actions taken to induce the breaching state back into compliance with their obligations not punishments (article 49). There are several conditions on countermeasures located between articles 49-54 which raise questions of whether asset seizure can be a legal countermeasure. Most notably that countermeasures must be terminated once the breaching state has returned to compliance (art 53). You can unfreeze assets but you cannot unseize them. So it is open for debate whether asset seizure would be a valid countermeasure.

https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/draft_articles/9_6_2001.pdf
This is a link to the ILC draft articles on state responsibility. They are only a draft but tend to reflect the state of customary international law.

Of course international law is only one consideration in deciding whether to seize russian assets. But I think it is important that any action is actually legal. Especially if one wants to claim to be acting within the law.