The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I'll be very curious to see how the next 6 months play out. If the battlefield situation deteriorates there will be a lot of pressure from the West for Zelensky to negotiate, but the window of a reasonable deal may have passed. I would expect that Russia's terms will get progressively more hardline if they feel they have a major military advantage.
What military advantage would that be? They have lost the flower of Russian youth on Ukrainian battlefields because of gross incompetence by military and political leaders. Yes, Putin has a large population from which to conscript more victims for the slaughter, but what about equipment and armaments? He can't magic those up and the only country that could really make a big difference, the PRC, won't because of its own political and economic requirements. Ukraine is holding their own at worse and advancing at best. At the present point in time Ukraine has the upper hand and since it appears that rasputa has started to make an appearance we will have to wait and see.
In my opinion, the best deal type of thing was left behind when they wrapped up the negotiations in 2022. I do not see Russia giving up any of their current holdings and there is potential that their territorial gains will only increase. In my opinion the probability of that happening is definitely higher than them losing much ground. And I am not even talking about tens or hundreds of thousands of lives lost to only arrive where they left of. No one can state with certainty, of course, but I believe Russia would give up the territory Ukraine retook last year as a part of the deal. I don’t see how they would give up anything they are currently controlling without being forcefully removed, which clearly isn’t happening.

Zelensky’s interview at NBC:


Did he just say that the Russians cut heads off children? Yes, yes he did.

I am not really sure what he is thinking. The ten-point peace plan he keeps bringing up has no relevance to anything of what is going on. He keeps talking about Russia attacking the NATO countries after they “kill all Ukrainians” and Americans having to bring their troops to the fight, of which Russia has no geopolitical or otherwise interest. Neither do they have the capabilities. He keeps denying the corruption that his office is accused of (see the article cited in my previous post). And so on. He talks about questionable 5% GDP growth after the country lost about 50% the year prior. He says he is OK with confiscating the Russian assets abroad without any regard for international and internal legal consequences. He then talks about the $40 billion gap they have in their budget that needs to be filled and says that if the money aren’t donated they would be OK with loans that they would repay after the war. That would be a $40 billion loan in just one year for a country with $160 or so billion GDP. Any reasonable person should realize that the repayment is at the very best questionable. Furthermore, Russia will never let Ukraine prosper if they do not come to terms. This isn’t happening. He also talks about having a frozen conflict in Donbas since 2014-15 and blames Russians for the accords falling apart, while earlier admitting himself that he/Ukraine was never going to follow through on any of it because that was not in their interests. Then he says that they defeated the Russian Black Sea fleet. Just a collection of rubbish, really.

I am not sure if he actually believes what he is saying or he thinks that people he is addressing have below average intelligence. In either case, it is delusion. I understand what he is saying and why, especially in regards to giving up land and no tribunal and whatnot. You can also see and hear he is desperate. But I also think he realizes that the USA has much higher interest snd priorities in the Middle East. In fact, I believe that the Americans have been acting against their best interests in Ukraine for a very long time now under the guise of delusion of victory, which is more or less has now been lifted and the reality needs to settle in sooner or later.

What the solution is I do not know. Implementing Minsk, in my opinion, was clearly the best possible option. The next best was to continue with the negotiations in 2022. The latter would obviously be a complete defeat that he isn’t willing to accept, it seems at any cost. And the cost is astronomical for achieving basically nothing since, losing millions in population, as well as hundreds of thousands in killed and mutilated or otherwise injured and handicapped., the country and its economy in ruins. How do you tell this to people though? The people you have been saying to that the complete victory is just weeks away. Not really sure.
The Russians have committed atrocities including the murder of women and children. That's also known as war crimes and one day Russia will be held to account. The Russians have kidnapped Ukrainian children and have refused to return them to their parents in Ukraine. That is another war crime. What else, we have known for months that Russian soldiers do not get the appropriate or enough rations and medical treatment. Of course, that is understandable because the Russian govt and military leadership don't value human life. They never have and are just continuing with their barbarism; what's new. There's plenty of reputable sources to support this statement. But then actual facts don't concern you do they? That's unless they come from RT or some other Russian source.

Are you another Russian troll?
 
What military advantage would that be? They have lost the flower of Russian youth on Ukrainian battlefields because of gross incompetence by military and political leaders. Yes, Putin has a large population from which to conscript more victims for the slaughter, but what about equipment and armaments? He can't magic those up and the only country that could really make a big difference, the PRC, won't because of its own political and economic requirements. Ukraine is holding their own at worse and advancing at best. At the present point in time Ukraine has the upper hand and since it appears that rasputa has started to make an appearance we will have to wait and see.
You'll notice I said "if they feel they have a major military advantage". There is an if there. There also seems to be quite a bit of confidence from Russian sources that they are winning the war of attrition, and quite a bit of concern from Ukrainian sources that they are not. Clearly there is a fog of war at work here. But if you think the idea that Russia might feel it has an advantage is unfounded, you need to get out more.

As to your points, Russia has not lost the "flower of Russian youth". They've lost a lot of immigrants and societal undesirables, along with much of their pre-war professional army. But the "flower of Russian youth" is not involved in this war. Putin has not increased conscription and has utilized a single round of mobilization. Manpower should not be a problem for them if they remain committed. As to equipment and armaments, fog of war certainly exists here as well but it certainly seems that armored vehicle and missile production are quite sufficient, and Russia has a massive drone/EW advantage per most front line reports. I'm not sure how anyone can read the Zaluzhnyi interview that was posted here and come to the conclusion that he thinks Ukraine is in a comfortable position; and who would know better than him?
 
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KipPotapych

Active Member
Do you think at any point in the past, achieving an agreement involving full Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory was viable? I don't, I don't see how that was possible.
From my observation, Russia's ability to demand things has diminished over time, including throughout 2023.
Of course not. It was never an option and it isn’t now. Neither will it be an option in the future.

What I am saying is that the best outcome for Ukraine would be achieved if they didn’t opt out of negotiations in spring/summer of 2022. Russia will never withdraw from the east or south of the country unless they are removed by force. There is no such force available to Ukraine and their position will only be weakened with time. There is nothing they can do about it. This is just reality that was likely but not a certainty last year; it is kind of obvious now. Would you disagree?

In other words, in my opinion, what has been achieved up to this point with tremendous loss of life and damage to the country could have been achieved via negotiations that ended unilaterally last year. Do you think there is any possibility, however remote, that the Russians will withdraw from the entire Ukrainian territory? I believe there is no such possibility exists and there are no circumstances currently or upcoming that will change it into Ukrainian favour. The opposite, however, is a very likely outcome.

What CAN he do? Ukraine is a young country that was invaded right when it started working on itself. Every problem that would take a decade to fix was either pushed back out of necessity, or was rushed (with all its consequences) due to the war. Nothing really disappeared. Considering the mess in which Ukraine was when he inherited it, he did fairly well. He alienated some, yes, but managed pull in massive material support. Massive corruption was embedded all around, but he took western advice on rooting it out and there are results. He united a people that didn't really have a national identity before that and gave them a direction. All in all, good performance. Those who understand Ukraine's problems don't need any more convincing. But many still need to hear something other than doom and gloom.

Regarding viability of peace and what each side can demand, Minsk's utter failure is going to be a major factor going forward. Ukraine will have to take into account the fact that any agreement it signs with Russia is just a stepping stone for the next invasion, setting up an arms race throughout the duration. It will have to, on one hand, set up longer term defenses and acquire more advanced western tech, and on the other hand accept that Russia will entrench itself even further as it did in the Donbas to which Ukraine would have a hard time matching a solution considering its focus would have to shift toward building a resilient economy.
One additional factor Ukraine would have to consider is the west's incredibly short memory. As soon as there's a ceasefire, support will quickly wane, the west will want a return on their investment, and Ukraine would have to shell out its own cash on every acquisition.
As things stand at this moment, Ukraine is a near failed state with a very uncertain and probably grim at least foreseeable future.

No, I do not think there is anything he can do. Which is why I think the refusal to negotiate was a missed opportunity.

I do not believe they’ll have much cash of their own to shell out.

Anyway, these are my thoughts.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
What military advantage would that be? They have lost the flower of Russian youth on Ukrainian battlefields because of gross incompetence by military and political leaders. Yes, Putin has a large population from which to conscript more victims for the slaughter, but what about equipment and armaments? He can't magic those up and the only country that could really make a big difference, the PRC, won't because of its own political and economic requirements. Ukraine is holding their own at worse and advancing at best. At the present point in time Ukraine has the upper hand and since it appears that rasputa has started to make an appearance we will have to wait and see.

The Russians have committed atrocities including the murder of women and children. That's also known as war crimes and one day Russia will be held to account. The Russians have kidnapped Ukrainian children and have refused to return them to their parents in Ukraine. That is another war crime. What else, we have known for months that Russian soldiers do not get the appropriate or enough rations and medical treatment. Of course, that is understandable because the Russian govt and military leadership don't value human life. They never have and are just continuing with their barbarism; what's new. There's plenty of reputable sources to support this statement. But then actual facts don't concern you do they? That's unless they come from RT or some other Russian source.

Are you another Russian troll?
Actually, the facts do greatly concern me. I believe, I have been fairly consistent with my posts here, provided plenty of facts, and so far, it seems, I haven’t been wrong with my assessments.

I do not believe Russia will be held to account beyond what already had happened. This is not how things work in the real world, unfortunately.

While you have decided that I am a Russian troll a while back, I am not. Not that it really matters.
 
Haven't seen it posted previously, but here is the full essay written by Zaluzhnyi regarding the current war and paths forward. It is quite the read, and it does seem he thinks they need quite a lot to change the current situation. I'm not sure of what to make of his differentiation between positional and maneuver natures; it seems to me a vast oversimplification of operational warfare. I'm also curious who exactly his target audience is here given that it is both public and quite detailed.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
As things stand at this moment, Ukraine is a near failed state with a very uncertain and probably grim at least foreseeable future.

No, I do not think there is anything he can do. Which is why I think the refusal to negotiate was a missed opportunity.

I do not believe they’ll have much cash of their own to shell out.
I find that an economy's performance depends far more on whether there are responsible people at the helm rather than major events or trends.

Ukraine is not the average Arab state that depends on natural resource exports, nor is it like the majority of African nations that due to lack of skilled labor have little connection to the global economy.

The Soviet, and by extension Russian and Ukrainian culture is one that promotes productivity, self improvement, and education. Not much for ambition, but you can't ask for everything. They have significant skilled labor, and the EU can greatly help the integrate with western economy and inject money through investments.

Their humble beginnings are those of a nation that's on the right path.

What I am saying is that the best outcome for Ukraine would be achieved if they didn’t opt out of negotiations in spring/summer of 2022. Russia will never withdraw from the east or south of the country unless they are removed by force. There is no such force available to Ukraine and their position will only be weakened with time. There is nothing they can do about it. This is just reality that was likely but not a certainty last year; it is kind of obvious now. Would you disagree?

In other words, in my opinion, what has been achieved up to this point with tremendous loss of life and damage to the country could have been achieved via negotiations that ended unilaterally last year. Do you think there is any possibility, however remote, that the Russians will withdraw from the entire Ukrainian territory? I believe there is no such possibility exists and there are no circumstances currently or upcoming that will change it into Ukrainian favour. The opposite, however, is a very likely outcome.
In hindsight maybe, which I disagree with still. But at the time it made no sense for Ukraine to negotiate, and negotiations can only work if both sides believe it's time.

I still believe that time is on Ukraine's side. Russia may make ground here and there, but its losses are horrendous and when it comes to platforms they are nigh irreplaceable.

Ukraine on the other hand seems to be building more and more strike capabilities.
 
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Larso66

Member
The way Ukraine reformed their army shows they know how to improve their country. Addressing corruption is next and underway, though war allows it considerable scope to breed. Presently it is a stalemate but if Ukraine uses education to improve their populations skills then innovation will gradually give them ascendancy on the battlefield. They already have the motivation. It will take a while though....
 

wild_Willie2

New Member
A few days ago the Ukrainians reportedly struck the Russian Project 22800 corvette "Askold" with at least one Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG at the Kerch shipyard. Youtube link discusses damage assessment using satellite images. Image below allegedly shows the damage sustained by this just completed, 55 million dollar ship, matching the satellite image damage location. There is also a surveillance cam video of the Askold floating around showing the direct impact of this cruise missile. This looks like another total write-off for the Russian navy to me.



 
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T.C.P

Well-Known Member
I dont care abo
A few days ago the Ukrainians reportedly struck the Russian Project 22800 corvette "Askold" with at least one Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG at the Kerch shipyard. Youtube link discusses damage assessment using satellite images. Image below allegedly shows the damage sustained by this just completed, 55 million dollar ship, matching the satellite image damage location. There is also a surveillance cam video of the Askold floating around showing the direct impact of this cruise missile. This looks like another total write-off for the Russian navy to me.



https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17p8w7u
The third missile is a direct hit.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article perhaps simplifies the discussion on oil production by Russia and the reason for cuts and effects thereof
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
It is difficult to say which side is favored by the passage of time. RU has its own arms industry but is being hit by the sanctions. UKR produces little on its own, from what I can gather, but gets a great deal of higher end stuff from the west.

Will the political will of the west run out before the political and economic will of RU ?

With neither military side showing signs of a collapse, I guess this is going to drag out for some time. Maybe Putin will die from old age which might end the war.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
For me this is confirmation of damage to the Askold. I could not make out anything definite from the Sat images. It looks like at least 2 hits.



A Ukrainian officer "Major Gennadiy Chastiakov" was killed. An assassination, or an accident, depending on who is talking.



An unlikely report that Ukraine is starting to move heavy metal across the dnipro river in the Kherson area. I find no other mention of this anywhere.


 

Larry_L

Active Member
An update from Ukraine on Utube on their long range strikes. Russia has moved their KA-52 helios further from the front, but not far enough. The Taganrog airfield was hit, and the helicopter repair station nearby also. Also covered the strike on the Askold, and ATACMS with 300km range coming soon.


Another video from the same source updating on the toehold Ukraine has on the left (East) bank in the Kherson region. Ukraine started stirring things up here when the VDV was sent North. Reports are that the commander, General Makarevich, has been removed in this area.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
There are unverified reports of a strike on several Russian landing ships carrying armored vehicles, and air defense. There was a video posted, but the quality leaves everything to the imagination except that this was unmanned marine vehicles.





Meanwhile Russia reports several drones were destroyed while trying to attack an oil terminal.


Also reported is a Liberian ship struck by a Russian missile near Odessa. Speculation is that the missile was intended for an air defense strike.


And here is the Ukrainian view of what is happening at Avdiivka. Russia continues the attempt to encircle the defense forces making small gains north of the slag heap.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Latest from Ukraine.

An interesting video on an anti-drone system in Ukraine.

Video on battle at Kupyansk.

Video from Sub Brief on Russian ships undertaking smuggling of war material through the Bosphorus Straits.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Video on Ukrainian RPG warhead modifications.

Video on NATO need to drastically alter how it resupplies Ukraine.

New UKR anti tank drone.

Another new UKR drone.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The X is Pro Russian, but the Video is from Ukrainian ones. They call there's no counter offensive operation. All just psychological operation against Russia.

Well if psychological warfare costs tens of thousands Ukrainian soldiers, most of their newly supplied armaments, just wondering how much Ukrainian will sacrifice for real counter offensive (if they still can afford that).

Both sides talk BS on their propaganda, but this is clearly top up Russian ones, when they are retreating from around Kyiv last year. At least Russian still call it strategic repositioning, not psychological warfare.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

The X is Pro Russian, but the Video is from Ukrainian ones. They call there's no counter offensive operation. All just psychological operation against Russia.

Well if psychological warfare costs tens of thousands Ukrainian soldiers, most of their newly supplied armaments, just wondering how much Ukrainian will sacrifice for real counter offensive (if they still can afford that).

Both sides talk BS on their propaganda, but this is clearly top up Russian ones, when they are retreating from around Kyiv last year. At least Russian still call it strategic repositioning, not psychological warfare.
I mean... Russia has also referred to retreats as "gestures of good will"...

Of course this doesn't change reality. Ukraine launched a massive counter-offensive with two army corps committed, and a clear strategic vision for what it was supposed to achieve. This offensive failed. Pretending otherwise is delusional.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
I mean... Russia has also referred to retreats as "gestures of good will"...

Of course this doesn't change reality. Ukraine launched a massive counter-offensive with two army corps committed, and a clear strategic vision for what it was supposed to achieve. This offensive failed. Pretending otherwise is delusional.
With out even needing hindsight Russia having so long to dig in made it a poor choice of location to attack from from the start. Would have gotten more for less committing those forces to Northern Luhansk region. The offensive as it happened is a prime modern day example of a bridge too far.
 
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