The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

OPSSG said:
Their performance on day 3 has given me hope that at day 43, they will still be fighting. The worse day for the Ukrainian Army is yet to come. The Russians will attempt multiple encirclement efforts in the coming days — breakout attempts at that time will result in large losses.
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When I talked with my financial colleagues that specializes in Russian market, they put two months window for Russia to sort the deal on pacified Ukraine like they did with Georgia. So within a month they should able to pacifies most of Ukraine armed forces, and in second month consolidate and force Ukraine hand on the negotiations on Russian term.

If they can't do that within that window time table, there're big chance Russian run out money to finance the operation. Also those that right now sitting in the fence like China, India etc, will lose their confidences on Russia abilities to sort this out soon, and can turn their back on Russia.

There will be group and pockets of resistance within Ukraine. However if those mostly only small group and in Western Ukraine, I don't think Russia will bother much. I'm no military expert, however I do question Ukrainian effort to make Kyiev as seems their last stand. They seems pulling everything they have to defend Kyiev, on the situation where many of their force can be pacified by Russian on their way in.

In my opinion the should pull back the administration to say Lviv, and coordinate their defense along Dnieper banks. At least they will have better chance to drag this more than two months. This will put them in better position for settlement negotiations.
 
Blackshoe said:
Initial speculation I saw was that these were guys from MD-E. That would make sense with the obsolence of the equipment.
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They're most likely the 90th Tank Div from Center MD. Some T-72As were spotted in training footage, and that's a new unit so some of their equipment came from storage. There's a horrible practice in Russia of pulling things out of storage locally, instead of the most modern option across the country. So there could be (and are) T-72Bs in storage in West MD, but Center MD pulls T-72As. I was never convinced that they were line vehicles and not UBG (training) vehicles for drivers. But this settles it, they're line tanks and now these antiques are at war against an opponent with top-attack ATGMs.
 
Feanor said:
They're most likely the 90th Tank Div from Center MD. Some T-72As were spotted in training footage, and that's a new unit so some of their equipment came from storage. There's a horrible practice in Russia of pulling things out of storage locally, instead of the most modern option across the country. So there could be (and are) T-72Bs in storage in West MD, but Center MD pulls T-72As. I was never convinced that they were line vehicles and not UBG (training) vehicles for drivers. But this settles it, they're line tanks and now these antiques are at war against an opponent with top-attack ATGMs.
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Its almost like the want to use up there old equipment first ..
I'm not 00% sure if narration on this vid is correct but seams like the su 25 still manages to perform in high threat environments
 
danonz said:
Its almost like the want to use up there old equipment first ..
I'm not 00% sure if narration on this vid is correct but seams like the su 25 still manages to perform in high threat environments
Click to expand...

Yeah this one is still unclear. Some sources are convinced Russia shot down one of Ukraine's last jets, some are convinced it survived and are blaming Russia for not organizing effective control of the airspace. Some sources are claiming the jet in question was Russia. It's really unclear. I'm of the latter opinion just on likelihood but beyond probability, we don't have much to go on.
 
Feanor said:
It would be difficult and would likely not help at all. They would be almost immediately destroyed. It's also quite a costly gift. As for Su-27s, there are barely any available to hand over. The aid that's being provided is pretty well tailored to Ukraine's needs.
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Don't think they would be almost immediately destroyed.
Russia has failed to obtain Air Superiority over Ukraine.
Even Russian Ministry of Defence is only claiming they have destroyed a handful of Ukrainian Aircraft at this time.
As of this Morning, Australian time, they were claiming only 7 Ukrainian Combat Aircraft destroyed.
The Russian army has destroyed 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said, APA reports citing Sputnik.


"Among them are 14 military airfields, 19 command posts and communication centres, 24 S-300 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, 48 radar stations. 7 combat aircraft, 7 helicopters, and 9 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down. 87 tanks and other combat aircraft were destroyed, as well as armoured vehicles, 28 multiple launch rocket systems, and 118 units of special military vehicles," Konashenkov said.
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apa.az

Russian forces have destroyed 821 Ukrainian military targets, Russian MoD says

The Russian army has destroyed 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said, APA reports citing Sputnik
apa.az apa.az
 
MARKMILES77 said:
Don't think they would be almost immediately destroyed.
Russia has failed to obtain Air Superiority over Ukraine.
Even Russian Ministry of Defence is only claiming they have destroyed a handful of Ukrainian Aircraft at this time.
As of this Morning, Australian time, they were claiming only 7 Ukrainian Combat Aircraft destroyed.


apa.az

Russian forces have destroyed 821 Ukrainian military targets, Russian MoD says

The Russian army has destroyed 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said, APA reports citing Sputnik
apa.az apa.az
Click to expand...

I Think Feanor meant that the moment Ukraine really starts using their fighter jets, they will be picked off. We have seen very little flying action from Ukranian jets.

Any Ukranian air base that starts heavily using fighters will be hit with serious concentrated missle attacks, that will make them useless. The Russian attacks on Ukranian airbases is probably a big reason, why we are seeing so few Ukranian jets in action.
 
Ananda said:
When I talked with my financial colleagues that specializes in Russian market, they put two months window for Russia to sort the deal on pacified Ukraine like they did with Georgia. So within a month they should able to pacifies most of Ukraine armed forces, and in second month consolidate and force Ukraine hand on the negotiations on Russian term.

If they can't do that within that window time table, there're big chance Russian run out money to finance the operation. Also those that right now sitting in the fence like China, India etc, will lose their confidences on Russia abilities to sort this out soon, and can turn their back on Russia.

There will be group and pockets of resistance within Ukraine. However if those mostly only small group and in Western Ukraine, I don't think Russia will bother much. I'm no military expert, however I do question Ukrainian effort to make Kyiev as seems their last stand. They seems pulling everything they have to defend Kyiev, on the situation where many of their force can be pacified by Russian on their way in.

In my opinion the should pull back the administration to say Lviv, and coordinate their defense along Dnieper banks. At least they will have better chance to drag this more than two months. This will put them in better position for settlement negotiations.
Click to expand...

Within a month they will be into the spring Rasputitsa season. The kind of mud that slowed Hitler to a crawl.
 
MARKMILES77 said:
Don't think they would be almost immediately destroyed.
Russia has failed to obtain Air Superiority over Ukraine.
Even Russian Ministry of Defence is only claiming they have destroyed a handful of Ukrainian Aircraft at this time.
As of this Morning, Australian time, they were claiming only 7 Ukrainian Combat Aircraft destroyed.


apa.az

Russian forces have destroyed 821 Ukrainian military targets, Russian MoD says

The Russian army has destroyed 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said, APA reports citing Sputnik
apa.az apa.az
Click to expand...

Note it says "shot down". He doesn't list how many were damaged to unserviceability or destroyed on the ground. The Ukrainian airforce was hit very hard in the opening missile strikes, and has been hit again since then. It's very telling that we've seen single Ukrainian jets flying around, and that's it. It's even more telling that we have seen a number of Ukraine's aircraft flee westward, including a combat-ready Su-27. A number of Ukraine's airfields have fallen under direct control of Russian forces. Russia definitely has air superiority over Ukraine, just not air supremacy the way the US has had in recent wars.
 
Australia will be providing weapons ... or at least funding weapons for the Ukraine.
www.abc.net.au

Australia to help send weapons to Ukraine via NATO

Australia will pour money into a Western-led effort to help arm Ukrainian soldiers trying to repel the Russian invasion as the conflict intensifies.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
This is the problem Russia will have. I expect weapons, medical aid, food, provisions, access to western intel, military training and perhaps even special forces will be aiding the Ukrainian war effort either overtly or covertly.

The longer the war drags on the harder it will be for the Russians to win.
 
There are multiple videos showing that Kharkov has been stormed by Russian forces and are within the city after heavy shelling during the night. The Russian Defense department has also stated that the 302nd anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Ukrainian troops voluntarily surrendered their arms in Kharkov, 471 Ukrainian servicemen were detained by Russia.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497816145168064521
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497816116772716544

It also seems that Russian forces have cleared the city of Nova Kharkova which is just outside of Kherson. This position will give the RF a permanent land bridge to Crimea so the strategic importance of this town can not be understated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497817060910551041
 
MARKMILES77 said:
Don't think they would be almost immediately destroyed.
Russia has failed to obtain Air Superiority over Ukraine.
Even Russian Ministry of Defence is only claiming they have destroyed a handful of Ukrainian Aircraft at this time.
As of this Morning, Australian time, they were claiming only 7 Ukrainian Combat Aircraft destroyed.


apa.az

Russian forces have destroyed 821 Ukrainian military targets, Russian MoD says

The Russian army has destroyed 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine, the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said, APA reports citing Sputnik
apa.az apa.az
Click to expand...

No, Russia has air superiority. I've heard more and more sorties last night. I haven't heard of any reports of Ukrainian Aviation flying since they lost that Su-27 over Kiev.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497819263817732106
 
Mysteries of the war so far.

I've found several things to be utterly baffling about the current conflict and would like to share my thoughts on the subject, taking a break from processing the sheer Niagara Falls volume of information.

Mystery the first. What happened at Gostomel'? It's clear Russia landed some sort of light infantry element there, likely either SpN or SOF (possibly SpN VDV from the 45th). Then Ukraine counterattacked. Reports said Ukraine's attack included artillery and armor. So... how come Ukrainian heavy mechanized formations couldn't dislodge what has been disclosed to be ~200 light infantry from unprepared positions? Was Russian airpower involved? There were reports of Mi-24s flying and even footage of one striking targets there. Were the Mi-24s doing this Russia or Ukrainian? I know the initial assault wave included Ka-52s, at least one of which went down (allegedly two went down, but we can't confirm for sure what the second helo was). Even with helo support, it should have been possible to push such a small force out. They were relieved by Russian ground forces, including a Chechen National Guard unit. That's a rather unlikely element to throw against Ukrainian armor. Did Ukraine not really have armor and artillery available, was the info wrong? It's all quite puzzling. Was there even heavy fighting, or just some half-hearted attempts by Ukrainian National Guard to dislodge a well trained Russian SOF element that ended poorly, and allowed them to hold the base, but the fighting prevented landing anything bigger there?

Mystery the second. What happened at Vasil'kovo? Allegedly it was the site of a second Russian landing, and according to Ukrainian and Western sources, two Il-76s were shot down there. Single Su-27s going down made enough wreckage to draw media attention. Here two heavy transport jets went down near a town. Where's the footage of the wreckage? Western sources are generally more reliable then Ukrainian ones, but are they independently confirming or simply repeating? And what about the landing? Did it take place at all? There were reports of fighting from there, but nothing concrete, and we have had subsequent missile strikes against an oil storage facility there. If there are Russian ground forces, why strike the facility with missiles? Was there even a landing?

Mystery the third. Where are Russian UAS/EW? Russia has proven to be adept at using both of those in the '14-'15 war, so much so that it led to a profound reaction from western military planners to begin considering how to counter it. Here we are 7 years later, Russia used UAS and EW in Syria, often with great effect. This is a major war against a peer opponent (well not really peer but as close as Russia has faced directly since WWII) and this tool, one that Russia touts, and used well in the past, is conspicuously absent. Orion-S UCAVs are in service with line units, anywhere from 20 to 50 of them. Even just 20 of them flying 1 sortie a day would have given us ~60 UCAV sorties by now, which should have yielded plenty of destroyed targets and highly creditable footage to release to the press. We have exactly one video of a BTR-4 getting hit and filmed from above that we might be able to attribute to a UAV filming if not striking. Russia has loitering munitions, and used them in combat as far back as 2019. Where are they? They should be invaluable in picking out Ukrainian armor and artillery hiding between buildings. This is their time to shine. And yet... nothing.

Mystery the fourth. Rebel forces advancing successfully against entrenched Ukrainian troops, with plenty of foritifications and land mines are gaining ground consistently, and we don't have buckets of destroyed rebel vehicles. Did Ukrainian troops simply abandon the front line? We have some reports of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering to the rebels, but not by the thousands or even the hundreds. Merely by tens or even smaller groups. The advance is not so fast that we can call it unresisted, and rebel forces are definitely taking losses. Why are the rebel forces performing so much better then expected, when line Russian Army units are underperforming? To be clear, I'm not claiming the rebel formations are outperforming Russian line units, they're just doing better then they should be.
 
Hannibal88 said:
It also seems that Russian forces have cleared the city of Nova Kharkova which is just outside of Kherson. This position will give the RF a permanent land bridge to Crimea so the strategic importance of this town can not be understated.
Click to expand...

You are mistaken. A land bridge to Crimea requires taking all the area east out of Crimea, until you hit rebel positions at Shirokino, and includes the towns of Melitopol', Berdyansk, and Mariupol'. To be clear, Russian forces are definitely heading that way, but Novaya Kahovka in no way establishes this land bridge. Novaya Kahovka is the origin point for the North Crimean Canal which supplies water to Crimea (or used to, and now will again). Novaya Kahovka is a smaller town, easier to take, and there's a convenient bridge across the Dnepr. It's likely that's why Russian troops took it, and controlling that town makes it possible for them to envelop Kherson, and move on Nikolaev without even taking Kherson. It's also been taken for a long time. It was one of the first towns Russia took.
 
The downing of Two II-76 has to be fake. There would be a huge debris field. I also feel like the Russians never fully lost Gostomel, just a big battle. You would think the Ukrainians would've engaged them north of the airfield. But, I saved your post, cause I have the same questions. Still yet to be seen.

A lot more footage of Kharkiv coming out now. Looks like it's basically a mop up operation now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497824211989155840

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497828778143326213
 
Feanor said:
You are mistaken. A land bridge to Crimea requires taking all the area east out of Crimea, until you hit rebel positions at Shirokino, and includes the towns of Melitopol', Berdyansk, and Mariupol'. To be clear, Russian forces are definitely heading that way, but Novaya Kahovka in no way establishes this land bridge. Novaya Kahovka is the origin point for the North Crimean Canal which supplies water to Crimea (or used to, and now will again). Novaya Kahovka is a smaller town, easier to take, and there's a convenient bridge across the Dnepr. It's likely that's why Russian troops took it, and controlling that town makes it possible for them to envelop Kherson, and move on Nikolaev without even taking Kherson. It's also been taken for a long time. It was one of the first towns Russia took.
Click to expand...

It'll definitely be interesting to see the push towards Mariupol, the southern push has been relatively efficient so it's only a matter of time and definitely one of the more urgent objectives I'm sure. I've heard reports of this town being held earlier however it seems now that it is being further corroborated.

Also in regards to your mysteries I wonder if the military planners are waiting to use some of the weaponry they tested in Syria such as combat drones, loitering munitions, hypersonic missiles, EW, or widespread airstrikes in phase 2 of the operations. It's still quite early in the campaign and things have been progressing relatively smoothly as prescribed by the RF military doctrine, but I wonder when they will begin to intensify their operation with their modern arsenal. Thus far mainly the Kalibr Missile for precision strikes is the only weapon that has been used consistently out of their modern stockpile of weapons.

I've seen some newer footage coming out of Gostomel that indicates heavy armor has arrived to relieve the russian forces that have held the airbase, but I have seldom heard of Ukrainian efforts to retake the base. This is odd since it is being used to position Russian forces to assault the city from the West and seems like an important base to hold. I've seen some reports that there were efforts made, but I took it as psyops since there has been no footage to confirm.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497824920151146498
 
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