The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

British MoD is claiming Ukrainians are sending “elite units” to Bakhmut. I wouldn’t necessarily trust their “intel” as their claims weren’t necessarily “honest” from the very beginning.

Also, it may be assumed that the two bridges were destroyed by the Russians in order to cut the supply routes. Just going by the British MoD statement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631917276126380033

 

[ngatimozart]

British MoD is claiming Ukrainians are sending “elite units” to Bakhmut. I wouldn’t necessarily trust their “intel” as their claims weren’t necessarily “honest” from the very beginning.

The UKMOD is a valuable and reliable source. Of course they aren't going to publicise everything.

 

[Feanor]

The UKMOD is a valuable and reliable source. Of course they aren't going to publicise everything.

Here's the question though. If Ukraine intends to convince Russia that they're committing their best to the fight around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, would the UKMoD participate in this deception? Or would they blow their cover? I suspect in the former. In which case they are not reliable source. Their goal can't be to tell the public the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. No national MoD can afford to do that, especially in a time of war. So questioning their statements regarding this specific instance is valid.

 

[vikingatespam]

Here's the question though. If Ukraine intends to convince Russia that they're committing their best to the fight around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, would the UKMoD participate in this deception? Or would they blow their cover? I suspect in the former. In which case they are not reliable source. Their goal can't be to tell the public the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. No national MoD can afford to do that, especially in a time of war. So questioning their statements regarding this specific instance is valid.

A better questions is - why is UKR fighting so hard under disadvantageous conditions ? Unless there is something the UKR are working towards, being surrounded on 3 sides isnt ideal.

 

[tonnyc]

A better questions is - why is UKR fighting so hard under disadvantageous conditions ? Unless there is something the UKR are working towards, being surrounded on 3 sides isnt ideal.

Wait, I thought Ukrainian forces are doing a gradual withdrawal this past week? My impression is that as long as Russia is throwing men at their fortified positions, Ukraine is happy to take them on. But as Russia threatens their supply line, Ukraine has been removing some of their troops from Bakhmut while the remainder is fighting a holding action.

 

[seaspear]

It might be that Bakhmut offers some topographical advantage over surrounding areas in it heights as an advantage for artillery and Ukraine would have to withdraw further to positions away from this advantage ,also Ukraine is likely having to withdraw its forces through very heavy mud that could easily trap vehicles or equipment delaying this

 

[KipPotapych]

It might be that Bakhmut offers some topographical advantage over surrounding areas in it heights as an advantage for artillery and Ukraine would have to withdraw further to positions away from this advantage ,also Ukraine is likely having to withdraw its forces through very heavy mud that could easily trap vehicles or equipment delaying this

Topography doesn’t work (Bakhmut circled in blue on the first image):

They need the rails connecting to Krasna Gora though (the dark grey line on both images going through Bakhmut).

 

[KipPotapych]

The AP claiming that the Ukrainians took out the bridges citing the same reports. Weird how that works: Civilians flee embattled town as Ukrainian pullout looms

Ukrainian units over the past 36 hours destroyed two key bridges just outside Bakhmut, including one linking it to the nearby town of Chasiv Yar along the last remaining Ukrainian resupply route, according to U.K. military intelligence officials and other Western analysts.

 

[vikingatespam]

Wait, I thought Ukrainian forces are doing a gradual withdrawal this past week? My impression is that as long as Russia is throwing men at their fortified positions, Ukraine is happy to take them on. But as Russia threatens their supply line, Ukraine has been removing some of their troops from Bakhmut while the remainder is fighting a holding action.

I thought they were leaving too, on account of the bridge destruction. Now, who can tell ?

 

[Feanor]

I thought they were leaving too, on account of the bridge destruction. Now, who can tell ?

I've seen several videos in the past couple of days of Ukrainian infantry walking out of the town. It's possible that they are withdrawing after all.

 

[Feanor]

Update Jan. 30th-31st

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian T-80BVs in Zaporozhye area. Allegedly they're from the 3rd Army Corps.

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Oskol Front.

Ukrainian infantry near Krasniy Liman getting hit in the forest.

Colonelcassad

Четкий прилет по пехоте противника перегруппировывашейся в лесу на Краснолиманском направлении. Явно несколько 200х. Видео: https://t.me/sashakots

t.me

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Ukrainian T-64BV getting hit by artillery near Svatovo.

Colonelcassad

На сватовском направлении бойцы 1-й танковой армии артиллерийским огнем поразили украинский танк Т-64БВ. @warjournaltg

t.me

Russian Shturm-S taking out allegedly a Ukrainian APC, near Svatovo.

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Colonelcassad

Противотанковый комплекс "Штурм-С" ВС РФ уничтожает бронетранспортер ВСУ на Сватовском направлении. @milinfolive

t.me

Russian 2S5s near Svatovo.

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Russian BMP-2s in the Svatovo-Kremennaya area.

Colonelcassad

Броня "Отважных" на зимних дорогах Луганщины Несмотря на грязь, слякоть и месиво от колонн техники, наши боевые машины пехоты чувствуют себя уверено. Как и заряженные штурмовики на них Окрестности Сватово. @btr80

t.me

LDNR Front.

LNR forces artillery and mortar fires towards Seversk. With the impeding fall of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, this might become the next town to be attacked.

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Wagner artillery fires at a Ukrainian position near rail station Salt. With hindsight, we know the station was taken shortly thereafter. Surprisingly the building was intact.

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Ukrainian PzH-2000 operating near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Some footage of Wagner forces in Klescheevka. Note, they're riding a BTR-MDM, likely loaned from a nearby VDV element, confirming that they're engaged in the area.

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DNR 58th SpN btln (former 3rd SpN btln) ATGM launch against something firing in the distance, allegedly a Ukrainian BMP-2. Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение украинской БМП в районе Авдеевки. ПТУР прилетел. Видео: https://t.me/nm_dnr

t.me

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Russian infantry engaged somewhere near Avdeevka.

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Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian M-777 near Bogoyavlenka, Ugledar area.

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Russian Ka-52 strikes near Ugledar.

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Russian 40th Marines near Ugledar.

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DNR rescue workers and soldiers are getting first aid training.

Colonelcassad

⚡Совместно с военными врачами проекта «Друзья медицины Донбасса» провели курс тактической медицины для бойцов народной милиции и сотрудников МЧС ДНР Сделали упор на самопомощи и эвакуации с поля боя различными способами - стропой, несколькими бойцами, за бронежилет. После занятий слушателям...

t.me

Reconstruction efforts have begun in Severodonetsk-Lisichansk. One resident shows off the shoddily installed replacement windows. It does help make the place warmer, but is obviously not a permanent solution. Unlike Mariupol', where reconstruction efforts are being showed off, and have political significance, here not much is being done.

Moscow calling

Особенности "восстановления освобожденного" Северодонецка. Обворованные и засранные квартиры, раскуроченные подоконники и откосы, криво установленные окна и малюсенькие батареи вместо годных советских... И это речь идёт о более-менее уцелевшем доме, в котором даже "родные" окна уцелели. Зато -...

t.me

Russia.

Ukrainian strikes hit Shebekino and Belgorod. Russian air defenses intercepted some inbounds.

Moscow calling

t.me

Moscow calling

Белгород, т.н. "хлопки", если вы понимаете, о чём я. 18+, лицам, падающим в обморок от мата, смотреть без звука.

t.me

Misc.

A Ukrainian Bayraktar-mini downed.

Colonelcassad

Еще один сбитый украинский БЛА Bayraktar Mini турецкого производства.

t.me

A damaged Ukrainian Kipri MRAP.

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Russian Grad, Uragan, and 2S4 operations.

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Russian Su-35S operations in the war. They're carrying the R-73, R-77, R-37M, and Kh-31P.

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Russian T-72Bs, B3's, and B3mod'16s.

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Russian soldiers with a captured Barrett M107A1 at a training ground.

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Russian Volga armored train operations, Ukraine. Note the helo cover.

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Russian troops training on BRM-1KMs somewhere in the war zone.

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Colonelcassad

Экипажи осваивают машины БРМ-1КМ на одном из полигонов в тыловой зоне проведения СВО. @milinfolive

t.me

Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.

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The World.

Ukrainian soldiers training in the UK.

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Reportedly France is delivering 12 more Caesars to Ukraine.

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France is also reportedly handing over Ground Master 200 radars.

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[Capt. Ironpants]

British MoD is claiming Ukrainians are sending “elite units” to Bakhmut. I wouldn’t necessarily trust their “intel” as their claims weren’t necessarily “honest” from the very beginning.

Also, it may be assumed that the two bridges were destroyed by the Russians in order to cut the supply routes. Just going by the British MoD statement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631917276126380033

UKMod also reporting Russians are fighting with shovels:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632270968868466689

The Independent reported the Ukrainians blew up the bridges, same as AP, citing "videos shared widely on social media [which] appeared to show Ukrainian troops setting off explosives on a metal railway bridge in the city, with images showing similar destruction of several road bridges." At least this piece includes a map showing locations of the bridges in question:

Watch: Ukrainian troops blow up bridges before withdrawal from ‘encircled’ Bakhmut

Yevgeny Prigozhin claims ‘pincers are closing’ as Ukrainian troops prepare to surrender eastern city known as the ‘meat grinder’

www.telegraph.co.uk

At least two bridges were blown according to various reports. I have also seen reports claiming it was the Russians who blew them. So many conflicting claims are coming out about Bakhmut. That's how it goes in war.

 

[ngatimozart]

Here's the question though. If Ukraine intends to convince Russia that they're committing their best to the fight around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, would the UKMoD participate in this deception? Or would they blow their cover? I suspect in the former. In which case they are not reliable source. Their goal can't be to tell the public the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. No national MoD can afford to do that, especially in a time of war. So questioning their statements regarding this specific instance is valid.

It's not in the Ukrainian interest for 3rd party Ukrainian partner MODs to publicise Ukrainian military plans because it gives succour to the enemy attacking Ukraine. It also depends upon how much of their plans the Ukrainians have shared with the UK, US etc. Finally, as you note, OPSEC is important.

 

[ngatimozart]

Topography doesn’t work (Bakhmut circled in blue on the first image):

They need the rails connecting to Krasna Gora though (the dark grey line on both images going through Bakhmut).

I am sure that the Russians are quite capable of trucking ammo to artillery on the high ground. Whilst the bulk of their logistics are rail dependent, they don't need rail to extend right to the frontlines like it did during WW1. Hence the topography would work for them. It is dangerous to underestimate the Russians because they are relearning the basics and learning new lessons. Their biggest problem is their C2 system.

UKMod also reporting Russians are fighting with shovels:

A sharpened entrenching tool is a very good hand to hand combat weapon. It's a large long handled slashing blade and very effective. The sharper the better.

 

[Feanor]

Footage of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the BMP-1 column getting wrecked was the Ukrainian withdrawal from Yagodnoe. We have 4 BMP-1s knocked out, a M113 damaged, a Panthera T6, a damaged BTR-4E, and a bunch of unarmored cars that were likely being used by Ukrainian forces, which is typical. We also have infantry exiting on foot in small groups.

Драп бандерлогов из Артемовска

Драп, как и предсказывалось, идет огородами под огнем артиллерии и авиации: Интересно, что драпают на легковушках - попытка закосить под мирняк, хотя и со следами, типа, камуфляжа. Бронетехника, видать, не используется, чтобы не привлекать внимание (очень много…

afirsov.livejournal.com

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Colonelcassad

Хлопцы, вы куда?

t.me

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Colonelcassad

Противник собрав монатки покидает "фортэцю" Бахмут. @voenkorzvo

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уходя из Артемовска, забирайте самое ценное...

t.me

Ukrainian CASEVAC, also allegedly part of the retreat from Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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A Russian journalist claims Russian forces hold ~40% of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces were exiting the city in small columns of 5-7 vehicles towards Konstantinovka.

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A withdrawal is definitely taking place in some form, but it might just be them pulling back to the western half of the town, along the river line. They did this in Severodonetsk-Lisichansk.

 

[Feanor]

Footage of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the BMP-1 column getting wrecked was the Ukrainian withdrawal from Yagodnoe. We have 4 BMP-1s knocked out, a M113 damaged, a Panthera T6, a damaged BTR-4E, and a bunch of unarmored cars that were likely being used by Ukrainian forces, which is typical. We also have infantry exiting on foot in small groups.

Драп бандерлогов из Артемовска

Драп, как и предсказывалось, идет огородами под огнем артиллерии и авиации: Интересно, что драпают на легковушках - попытка закосить под мирняк, хотя и со следами, типа, камуфляжа. Бронетехника, видать, не используется, чтобы не привлекать внимание (очень много…

afirsov.livejournal.com

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vk.com

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Colonelcassad

Хлопцы, вы куда?

t.me

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Colonelcassad

Противник собрав монатки покидает "фортэцю" Бахмут. @voenkorzvo

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уходя из Артемовска, забирайте самое ценное...

t.me

Ukrainian CASEVAC, also allegedly part of the retreat from Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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A Russian journalist claims Russian forces hold ~40% of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces were exiting the city in small columns of 5-7 vehicles towards Konstantinovka.

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A withdrawal is definitely taking place in some form, but it might just be them pulling back to the western half of the town, along the river line. They did this in Severodonetsk-Lisichansk.

It looks like that's exactly what's happening. Wagner fighters have rapidly advanced through the eastern part of town, reaching the T-34 monument near the river. Note, the area is safe enough for them to walk openly and plant flags.

Moscow calling

Бойцы т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер" дошли до монумента "Танк" (48.593891, 38.015753) , приблизившись к центру Бахмута.

t.me

Дошли до памятника танкистам в Артемовске

Штурмовики ЧВК Вагнер дошли до знаменитого памятника танкистам в Артемовске, сорвали с него украинскую тряпку и установили свой флаг. Памятник установлен воинам-танкистам 23 танкового корпуса 2-й танковой армии, участвовавшим 5 сентября 1943 г. в освобождении города Артемовска от…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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More footage of the withdrawal. With operational encirclement now a reality (all roads are under fire) Ukraine is losing forces as evidenced by what appears to be a smashed groups of cars being used by Ukrainian forces.

Colonelcassad

Кадры символического отхода ВСУ из символического https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79819 Артемовска.

t.me

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Ukrainian vehicles somewhere near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. With main roads not available, unpaved roads are being used and due to the weather are in bad shape.

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On the other hand, here's a column of Pathera T6 armored cars heading to Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Considering they are primarily being used by two newly formed brigades (47th and 88th), it's possible that Ukraine is in fact committing some of their best newly trained forces to this fight. One of these vehicles has already been captured in Stupki, and another was seen in the town itself so it's possible either elements of these two units were already present, or another unit received some quantity (possibly a very small quantity) of these vehicles.

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I think one thing is now clear. Without a significant counter-attack to reopen major roads into the town, the situation will be untenable. If all supplies, CASEVAC, reinforcements, and rotations, have to be done in these conditions, Ukraine will lose men and materiel simply entering and leaving the town.

The latest map from Rybar shows continued fighting right next to the road out of Khromovo, and some Russian gains inside the town as well as Ukrainian counter-attack attempts. He also mentions Ukrainian helos and dive bombers being used, as well as reinforcements from the newly formed brigades being sent in. If this last bit is true, this is much to Russia's benefit, as every Ukrainian unit committed to this fight will be less available for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/03/06/20230306144554-19d8797a.jpg

 

[vikingatespam]

If the UKR have some sort of plan that requires holding onto Bahkmut no matter what then thats great, but getting men killed because they waited too long will not help morale.

I have vague hopes the UKR are about to drop a big hammer somewhere, but thats a lot of hopium.

 

[Feanor]

If the UKR have some sort of plan that requires holding onto Bahkmut no matter what then thats great, but getting men killed because they waited too long will not help morale.

I have vague hopes the UKR are about to drop a big hammer somewhere, but thats a lot of hopium.

It's practically 100% that they're about to drop a big hammer somewhere. A likely location is Zaporozhye area towards either Melitopol' or Berdyansk though there are other options. However it's not clear that hammer is ready to drop now. "About to" is a fungible term, and it will likely come once the ground is a little drier. Ukraine has reportedly trained up 3 new army corps.

 

[seaspear]

Does Russia have the capacity to launch its own "Spring offensive " ? I understand that Russia recently has used many of the recent reservists in wide ranging attacks but how much of this was a full committal it should nominally have significant advantages in military equipment despite earlier losses

 

[vikingatespam]

It's practically 100% that they're about to drop a big hammer somewhere. A likely location is Zaporozhye area towards either Melitopol' or Berdyansk though there are other options. However it's not clear that hammer is ready to drop now. "About to" is a fungible term, and it will likely come once the ground is a little drier. Ukraine has reportedly trained up 3 new army corps.

Berdyansk is the logical place with a large payoff. So logical, that the RU know it and have fortified accordingly. I wonder if the UKR are capable of a set-piece fortified line penetration without taking ghastly casualties.