The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Netherlands and Denmark to purchase 100 Leo 1 tanks from Germany:

Netherlands, Denmark and Germany buy 100 Leopard 1 Tanks for Ukraine - Dutch gov't

The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are buying 100 Leopard-1A5 battle tanks for Ukraine, the Dutch government said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Not sure if this is different or inclusive of Germany’s decision to send 18 Leo 1 (vis google translate):


The Federal Security Council of Germany approved the supply of 178 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine. This is reported by Spiegel.

It is specified that Germany will send much more military equipment from industrial reserves than previously announced. The German authorities will send some of the tanks in the summer, while the main part will be transferred only in 2024.

It is noted that the very decision to allocate military assistance will be made public on the evening of February 7.

Германия одобрила поставку 178 танков Украине

Федеральный совет безопасности ФРГ одобрил поставку 178 танков Leopard 1 Украине. Уточняется, что Германия направит гораздо больше военной техники из промышленных запасов, чем было объявлено ранее. Часть танков немецкие власти отправят летом, в то время как основную часть передадут только в 2024...

m.lenta.ru

Minna Ålander has looked into the article you most likely refer to: Minna Ålander on Twitter: "https://t.co/r25numjMDC" / Twitter

Seems there are several inaccuracies in the Spiegel article, and a bit of speculations. Things are moving, albeit a bit slower than one would have hoped.

Perhaps this is the same. There was another report… at ZDF (?) a few days ago where they discussed the same thing.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ That 100 has to be a part of 178. From the Ministry of Defense (vis google translate):


The federal government had already announced the political approval of this delivery last week. This was followed by the necessary formal approval steps.

For example, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK), as the formally competent licensing authority, has issued export permits to German defense companies for up to 178 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks for Ukraine. How many Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks are actually delivered to Ukraine depends on the necessary repair work.

The financing and repair of the tanks as well as the training of Ukrainian armed forces is carried out in close coordination with European partner countries of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Bundesregierung erteilt Ausfuhrgenehmigung für Leopard 1 A5 Panzer

Die Bundesregierung erteilt Ausfuhrgenehmigungen an deutsche Rüstungsunternehmen.

www.bmvg.de

 

[jref]

It's honestly not clear. My money is that Russia doesn't have a single large offensive planned at all. If they've learned anything, it's that they can't coordinate those kinds of efforts on that kind of scale. I think Russia will continue inching forward along sections of the front from Kupyansk to Krasniy Liman to Seversk to Artemovsk/Bakhmut, to Mar'inka, to Ugledar. Where they can they will gain ground, where they can't they will stop and try to inflict damage through attrition, a combination of attacks and massive shelling. If the Ukrainian front line begins to collapse due to casualties, faster advances are possible, but I think this is unlikely. Ukraine is continuing significant mobilization efforts and the demographic damage is nowhere near the point where they will have exhausted their manpower.

This was touched upon in one of TG groups and then reposted by Rybar:

Рыбарь

Сейчас стала популярна тема о том, что медленное продвижение наших войск, компенсируется "перемалыванием" живой силы врага. Тема "перемалывания" была популярна весной 2022 года, когда темпы нашего наступления снизились и многие уважаемые люди убеждали меня, что скоро мы "перемолотим" всю пехоту...

t.me

Basically arguing grinding the enemy down won't get Russia far.

On a similar note, Alexander Rutskoy a former Soviet military officer, Major General of Aviation claiming that due to incompetence of Russian military command they're not able to conduct strategic offensives.

 

[Feanor]

This was touched upon in one of TG groups and then reposted by Rybar:

Рыбарь

Сейчас стала популярна тема о том, что медленное продвижение наших войск, компенсируется "перемалыванием" живой силы врага. Тема "перемалывания" была популярна весной 2022 года, когда темпы нашего наступления снизились и многие уважаемые люди убеждали меня, что скоро мы "перемолотим" всю пехоту...

t.me

Basically arguing grinding the enemy down won't get Russia far.

On a similar note, Alexander Rutskoy a former Soviet military officer, Major General of Aviation claiming that due to incompetence of Russian military command they're not able to conduct strategic offensives.

I don't think incompetence of command is the issue. I think the issue is poor comms, inadequate recon, and issues with logistics, especially in terms of evacuating damaged or disabled vehicles. Grinding down the enemy would have been possible if it weren't for steady western aid coming in. Russia can not realistically outpace supplies of western weapons through attrition of equipment. They can do demographic damage if this continues, but it will take years.

 

[kato]

Since the press has overlooked it so far:

Germany will be delivering two MANTIS C-RAM systems to Slovakia from Bundeswehr inventory, with training beginning in the next couple months. As in: All MANTIS that the Bundeswehr has will be transferred to Slovakia. Permanently. This includes associated radar systems as well.

Source: Order of the Day regarding the Support of Ukraine and the protection of the Alliance in Eastern Europe, MoD Pistorius and Inspector General of the Bundeswehr Zorn, Feb 6th 2023.

The transfer is likely connected to the medium-term partial withdrawal of currently stationed Patriot units in order to donate those to Ukraine instead. Moving in this direction is spearheaded by the US. Germany currently has Patriots stationed in both Slovakia and immediately adjacent in southeast Poland.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Jan 7th-8th

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian shelling of Ukrainian vehicles in Zaporozhye area.

Colonelcassad

Работа по технике ВСУ на Запорожском направлении. Видео: https://t.me/voin_dv

t.me

Ukrainian positions after Russian shelling, Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная русской артиллерией позиция украинской армии на Запорожском направлении. @ChDambiev

t.me

Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

В Запорожье взрывы. Работает ПВО. Вероятно, снова "Герани" наведались.

t.me

Oskol Front.

Battle damage in Krasniy Liman.

Colonelcassad

Текущее состояние Красного Лимана после различных боев и обстрелов.

t.me

LDNR Front.

LDNR Ukrainian forces evacuating KIAs in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the conditions. It's no longer vans, it's pickups. Russian forces are currently threatening most of the roads out of town.

Colonelcassad

Погрузка трупов ВСУшников в Артемовске. Приходится утрамбовывать в пикап.

t.me

Apparently a Ukrainian MiG-29 from the pilot group Ukrainian Falcons was shot down near Kurakhovo. It appeared to be carrying a HARM.

LOSTARMOUR | Carthago delenda est!

Восточнее н.п. Курахово дружественным огнем сбит МиГ-29 ВВС Украины из числа пилотажной группы "Украинские соколы". На фото видны обломки противолокационной ракеты HARM, которую нес истребитель https://lostarmour.info/svo

t.me

Moscow calling

МиГ-29 ВСУ, сбитый восточнее н.п. Курахово.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сбитый украинский истребитель МиГ-29. Похоже это тот самый, который вчера сбили по ошибке украинские ПВОшники (отработали из ЗРК "Оса").

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Gorlovka got hit by Ukrainian shelling.

Colonelcassad

Последствия обстрела ВСУ Горловки в рождественскую ночь. Около двух часов ночи украинские националисты начали наносить удары по жилому массиву "Строитель", проигнорировав предложение России о перемирии. В результате пострадала женщина. Квартиры в жилом доме превратились в руины — выбиты...

t.me

Shelling of Donetsk continues. One of the targets was a metallurgical plant.

Репортёр Руденко V

Прилет снаряда в крышу многоквартирного дома в Петровском районе г Донецка. Вот такое Рождество в ДНР… @rtrdonetsk

t.me

Moscow calling

ВСУ нанесли удар по металлопрокатному заводу в Донецке. Были ли на заводе военные цели - неизвестно.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Донецке прилет по металлопрокатному заводу. На территории предприятия пожар.

t.me

Battle damage in Mar'inka.

Colonelcassad

Центральные районы Марьинки. Бои за город продолжаются, постепенно смещаясь в западную часть. Большая часть многоэтажек в центре разбита. На видео https://t.me/cmiye/8830 с позиций ВСУ в западной части Марьинки видны лесопосадки рядом с дорогой на поселок Победа в направлении Константиновки...

t.me

Overrun Ukrainian positions in the Donbass. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

Северодонбасское направление. Занятые позиции ВСУ. Осторожно, есть фото 18+ Фото: https://t.me/chub_detection

t.me

DNR 3rd Bde taking out a Ukrainian mortar team.

Colonelcassad

Боевая работа одного из специальных подразделений (работа по живой силе противника) и 3 бригады НМ ДНР (уничтожение минометного расчета ВСУ). Техника для разведки и корректировки огня предоставлена подразделениям по линии МОО Вече. Благодаря Вам подписчики и благотворители продолжаем активную...

t.me

LNR 2nd Bde 2S1s operations.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LNR, Lutugino, a gasline exploded. Context unclear.

Colonelcassad

В ЛНР в районе Лутугино подорван магистральный газопровод. Ремонтные бригады приступили к устранению последствий взрыва.

t.me

Russia.

Mobilized personnel in Belgorod complaining that after training as artillerymen they are being sent to the front as infantry.

МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Что делать?

Новое обращение военных к президенту На этот раз в сети появилось видео с обращением военных из Белгородской области к Путину. Мужчин готовили как артиллеристов, а потом отправили в пехоту как пушечное мясо. Мужчины на видео крайне осторожны. Страх последствий в военных сейчас сильный, но они...

t.me

Repairs of the supports to the Crimean bridge continue.

Южная башня

Завершено восстановление подферменных площадок на опорах Крымского моста, необходимых для надвижки первого пролетного строения левой стороны автодорожной части.

t.me

Misc.

A tank battle at a range of 500m, location unclear. Also which side is which is unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian quadcopter munition drops, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian BMP destroyed, possible the Svatovo axis.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Two destroyed Ukrainian 2S1s. Location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Две уничтоженные украинские 122-мм самоходные артиллерийские установки 2С1 «Гвоздика» где-то в зоне проведения СВО. @ChDambiev

t.me

Russian loitering munition, either shot down or crashed near a Ukrainian position.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 40th MarBde operating the Eleron-3SV UAV in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian T-90Ms in Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Т-90М в зоне СВО. https://t.me/tankist4

t.me

Another POW exchange between Ukraine and Russia, 50 for 50.

Moscow calling

Очередные 50 бойцов ВС РФ вернулись домой из украинского плена. Сколько украинцев было отдано из российского плена - пока не сообщается, ждём инфу...

t.me

Moscow calling

50 украинцев (бойцы ВСУ, ТРО, НГУ, ГНСУ, ВМС, а также ССО) вернулись из российского плена по обмену "50 на 50". 33 офицера, 17 рядовых и сержантов.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

NATO/EU.

Turkish Kipri MRAPs, 42 of them, heading to Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Перебрасываемые на Украину турецкие МРАПы "Кирпи" из ранее отмеченной в Румынии партии в кол-ве 42 единицы. Входят в закупку из 150 единиц (50 штук были поставлены в 2022-м году).

t.me

 

[ngatimozart]

I don't think incompetence of command is the issue. I think the issue is poor comms, inadequate recon, and issues with logistics, especially in terms of evacuating damaged or disabled vehicles. Grinding down the enemy would have been possible if it weren't for steady western aid coming in. Russia can not realistically outpace supplies of western weapons through attrition of equipment. They can do demographic damage if this continues, but it will take years.

I disagree with your comment about incompetence. If the military leadership was competent, Ukraine would now be a group of Russian oblasts. The incompetence was on display from day one of the 2022 invasion. Poor comms, inadequate recon, and issues with logistics, especially in terms of evacuating damaged or disabled vehicles, is just an excuse for poor planning and war management. They had plenty of exercises before 24/2/2022 and those exercises should have highlighted those problems, if the exercises were done properly. Of course the Russian military could've reverted to old Soviet Red Army habits of exercises being designed to make Generals, political commissars, and pollies look good.

 

[seaspear]

How many military experts around the world expected how this war be now if Russia invaded a year ago weapons like Javelin and NLAW being very destructive of Russia's tanks have come as a surprise to even the vaunted shtora system
Why Russia’s Feared T-90 Tank Keeps Getting Killed In Ukraine - Defence View
The American Himars system again not predicted provided some edge for Ukraine it could easily be said that Russian intelligence failed to identify the amount of opposition to the invasion
What does the War in Ukraine tell us about Russian Intelligence? | Feature from King's College London (kcl.ac.uk)
Certainly the failures of the F.S.B to provide real intelligence to the Kremlin may have a factor in the military,s plan for the war
The Washington Post: Russia's spies misread Ukraine and mislead the Kremlin as war approaches - Teller Report

 

[seaspear]

On President Zelenskyy's visit to the U.K it was announced that training for Ukrainian pilots will commence to fly N.A.T.O jets this was announced by Prime minister Sunak, this might place some pressure on the U.S to match
Zelenskyy to visit UK for first time since Russia’s invasion – Winnipeg Free Press

 

[StobieWan]

Not sure what they're referring to as "NATO standard jets" here - I don't think we've got any Typhoon to spare, unless we're donating the Tranche 1's which can't take Meteor - I think some of those may be low mileage ?

 

[Redshift]

Trying to delete a duplicate message.

Can't seem to do it so I have deleted the content!

 

[Redshift]

Not sure what they're referring to as "NATO standard jets" here - I don't think we've got any Typhoon to spare, unless we're donating the Tranche 1's which can't take Meteor - I think some of those may be low mileage ?

Britain to train Ukraine combat fighter pilots
The deal could also be expanded to include military helicopter pilots, according to recent testimony given to lawmakers.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

Speculates training on Hawks and possibly typhoon.

I'm pretty sure I heard further clarification on an article on BBC Radio 4 (that I cannot reference as I can't remember what it was I think I was in the car when I heard it) that it would be up to and including, but not further than, Hawk trainers as per the RAF's own training schedule allowing them to move up to one or more different jets with the F16 being the most likely.

 

[swerve]

One report I read today said that the Ukrainian air force currently has more pilots than aircraft. & the reporting of the pilot training plan strongly suggests it's conversion training of experienced pilots to NATO standards, not ab initio.

 

[seaspear]

There is some speculation in this Drive article that tranche 1 Eurofighters that were due for decommissioning could be part of a package to Ukraine but ground crew have not been mentioned in any training for this sophisticated fighter so time will tell
U.K. Commits To Training Ukrainian Fighter Pilots, Many Questions Remain (thedrive.com)

 

[Feanor]

One report I read today said that the Ukrainian air force currently has more pilots than aircraft. & the reporting of the pilot training plan strongly suggests it's conversion training of experienced pilots to NATO standards, not ab initio.

This would make sense. At least some aircraft must have been destroyed on the ground, and we have Ukrainian jets getting shot down every month. Pilots frequently survive, so there must be a surplus of pilots over aircraft.

 

[KipPotapych]

Minna Ålander has looked into the article you most likely refer to: Minna Ålander on Twitter: "https://t.co/r25numjMDC" / Twitter

Seems there are several inaccuracies in the Spiegel article, and a bit of speculations. Things are moving, albeit a bit slower than one would have hoped.

To come back to this. It does appear everything is not as “smooth” and decided as it was claimed to be. In fact, claims are so vague and vary that it’ll probably be a while before there are any (western) tanks in Ukraine. This Bloomberg article outlines some of the issues. And I’ll quote some of its parts as it may be behind a paywall.

Germany Pressures EU Allies to Send Ukraine Leopard 2 Tanks

Germany is increasingly concerned that European allies will not provide Ukraine with enough Leopard 2 battle tanks to create the promised two battalions of as many as 62 combat vehicles, with an escalation in fighting against Russia’s invading forces expected imminently.

www.bloomberg.com

Germany is increasingly concerned that European allies will not provide Ukraine with enough Leopard 2 battle tanks to create the promised two battalions of as many as 62 combat vehicles, with an escalation in fighting against Russia’s invading forces expected imminently.

Germany wants European allies with Leopard 2s in their military stocks to come up with concrete and detailed commitments by the end of this week, according to a person familiar with the government’s position.

So far, talks with allies on pulling together the tank shipments appear to have yielded little. Besides Germany, only Portugal has made a concrete offer to send the most advanced tanks, but has left open how many, according to a German government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussion are confidential.

The tanks that Poles promised (and were among the first ones to boot! and were the ones to put the most pressure on Germany!) apparently require spare parts that are no longer in production, so it isn’t very clear what is happening there:

While EU member states such as Denmark, Norway, Finland and the Netherlands have suggested that they might send the tanks, they so far haven’t made clear commitments. Poland has said it will contribute 14 units of an older version of the Leopard 2, but will need spare parts from Germany. Those parts, however, are no longer in production.

Speaking after talks Wednesday with his Polish counterpart in Warsaw, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the tanks coalition had still not achieved its targets and he hoped more countries with Leopard 2s would join the initiative.

And the Leopard 1 tanks we heard about the other day? Well, they, apparently, aren’t even expected to hit the battlefields directly:

In addition to the modern Leopard 2s, the German economy ministry this week approved the delivery of as many as 178 older-generation Leopard 1 battle tanks. The tanks, which were first built in the 1960s but are no longer in production, will come from stocks in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands.

At least 100 of the tanks are due to arrive in Ukraine in the next few months. A German official pointed out, however, that the Leopard 1 will only serve as a supplement and possible source of spare parts for the Leopard 2s, which are much faster and better armed, and could therefore be a game-changer in the war in Ukraine.

So yeah, I’d say things are pretty murky there. My guess is, hardly any tanks, if any at all, will see their way to Ukraine anytime soon. And they are really trying to get together only 62 tanks, which likely won’t make a difference as far as the outcome goes anyway:

The longer the EU conversation over tanks continues, the more likely it is to strain unity among member states, and the worse it is for Ukraine, which is expected to face a renewed Russian offensive in coming weeks.

In the German army, a battalion consists of 44 battle tanks, while in Ukraine it’s 31. A defense ministry spokesman said Wednesday that Germany and its allies are aiming to get together two battalions of Leopard 2 tanks under the Ukrainian definition and this would mean 62 units.


In other news, Russians are reacting pretty strongly to the news out of Britain (via google translate):

The Russian Embassy in Great Britain threatened the whole world with military and political consequences due to the possible supply of British fighters to Ukraine. The statement of the diplomatic mission is quoted by RIA Novosti.

“I would like to remind official London: it is on its conscience in this scenario that there will be a "bloody harvest" of the next round of escalation, as well as the resulting military and political consequences for the European continent and the whole world.”

Посольство России пригрозило последствиями из-за поставок истребителей Украине

Посольство России в Великобритании пригрозило всему миру военно-политическими последствиями из-за возможных поставок британских истребителей Украине. В дипмиссии в свете обсуждения передачи Киеву военных самолетов также заявили, что Москва даст ответ на любые недружественные действия со стороны...

m.lenta.ru

 

[vikingatespam]

Previously, GB announced that giving Storm Shadow missiles to UKR was possible and twitter rumors abound today that that was now happening. I am trying to find a good reference.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ I think that may have come from the general statement of “we are open to anything” or somethings along the lines, whatever Sunak said.

On President Zelenskyy's visit to the U.K it was announced that training for Ukrainian pilots will commence to fly N.A.T.O jets this was announced by Prime minister Sunak, this might place some pressure on the U.S to match
Zelenskyy to visit UK for first time since Russia’s invasion – Winnipeg Free Press

Is this a poker game or a competition otherwise?

Sky News posted an article suggesting that there might be nothing to match.

Rishi Sunak says 'nothing is off the table' when it comes to sending fighter jets to Ukraine - but does the UK really have the capacity?

A few excerpts:

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has confidently assured Ukraine's president that "nothing is off the table" when it comes to the question of fighter jets, but he should perhaps have a look at exactly what is on his table first.

Here is a clue: It isn't much and certainly does not include fast jets anytime soon.[…]

An RAF source said it was nonsense to think the UK could offer fast jets to Ukraine.

"Tranche 1 [Typhoon] are just training aircraft no good for combat," the source said.

"The Tornado is a fantastic jet, but too difficult to maintain, operate and they will now be in disrepair or mothballs. Going nowhere for months."

Anything else would be "too expensive, complicated, we don't have any spare".

The UK is offering to train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO standard jets.

But it is important to understand the context here as well despite the good intent.

The entire system of UK military flying training is a mess - despite assurances to the contrary by Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, the RAF boss, in evidence to MPs last week.

At present, it can take up to eight or even 10 years for a recruit to pass through flying training and enter a frontline squadron rather than that target time of under three years.[…]

But it is important to understand the context here as well despite the good intent.

The entire system of UK military flying training is a mess - despite assurances to the contrary by Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, the RAF boss, in evidence to MPs last week.

At present, it can take up to eight or even 10 years for a recruit to pass through flying training and enter a frontline squadron rather than that target time of under three years.[…]

Offering their view of Mr Sunak's promise to train Ukrainian pilots, the RAF source said: "Unbelievable. We have clearly established we can't train our own pilots. The holdies [recruits holding for slots on training courses] are in shock."

Appears to be farts in the air, so to speak. Like the tank story outlined a couple of posts above, but significantly worse.

What this conflict is showing is that the general level of “preparedness” is pretty staggering, really.

 

[KipPotapych]

Another interesting bit. I wonder how that works.

SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink internet for drones -company president

SpaceX has taken steps to prevent Ukraine's military from using the company's Starlink satellite internet service for controlling drones in the region during the country's war with Russia, SpaceX's president said Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[the concerned]

Could the Ukrainian pilots be trained to use Brimstone munitions on its current jets.