The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

No, I think the long-established population of Crimea should be consulted, & their wishes should be a major factor - but recent history has to be borne in mind. Perhaps Crimea could be a demilitarised region of Russia. But pre-2014 inhabitants should all have a vote, lost property should be restored, & the rights of minorities should be protected. I don't see any of that happening under Putin or a government backed by him. It makes Crimea tricky to deal with.

BTW, Crimeans voted for independence from the USSR in 1991, though not with the sort of majorities seen in the rest of Ukraine - & because of relatively low turnouts, a minority of the electorate.

In Donetsk, Luhansk, Odessa & Kharkiv oblasts between 64 & 68% of the electorate (not just those who voted) voted for Ukrainian independence in 1991. Of course, that could have changed, but it's still the only credible vote on the topic there's been.

Ok so if by consulted you're thinking of a non-binding opinion poll to be regarded or disregarded I don't see how that helps. But if you're saying a binding referendum, then you've just taken Russia's view of the situation. Let the locals decide. This view runs completely counter to Ukraine's position, and that of Ukraine's western backers.

EDIT: On the subject of referendum's, the March 17th referendum had Ukraine voting to preserve the union. I suppose you could call it "not credible" if you like.

 

[Stuart M]

To argue anything as "legally' in this case you would need to cite international law that covers it

International law has nothing to do with it, it's a question of Ukrainian MIC owned and run by Ukrainian government in Poland and that will make it a target, that if attacked by Russia, will in all probability lead to a rapid escalation spiral resulting in use of nuclear weapons.
Which is why no one is going to risk having Ukrainian MIC in their nation.

 

[relic88]

Took a gander around the nuances of maintaining the steel beasts UKR is getting. Numbers of tanks are mentioned but no mention of recovery vehicles and all of the tail end stuff is apparent. Found this interesting video of a power pack swap in a LEO. Going by the video run time, it takes about 30 minutes to swap power packs for a LEO. This is the kind of skills UKR will need to absorb.

 

[Feanor]

Update Dec 20th-22nd

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian loitering munition strikes against two Ukrainian M777s on the Kherson axis.

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vk.com

Allegedly Russian incendiary strikes in Kherson.

Moscow calling

Херсон - это РФ, о чём она регулярно напоминает местным жителям, посылая частички тепла и любви (зажигательные кассетные боеприпасы).

t.me

Oskol Front.

Russian Don Cossack irregulars dropping grenades from a quadcopter on Ukrainian positions near Kremennaya.

Colonelcassad

Спецподразделение Донских Казаков на Кременском направлении проводит зачистку лесопосадок. видео: @evgeniy_lisitsyn

t.me

A destroyed tank, allegedly Ukrainian, near Kremennaya. The source claims the tank was taken out by a T-90M that managed to get behind them. A closer look at the turret suggests it's carrying K-5 tiles. Normally I'd assume the destroyed tank was in fact Russian, but iirc Ukraine's 30th Mech Bde, riding captured Russian tanks, is in this area. Some observers suggest the destroyed tank is a T-80BVM.

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Colonelcassad

Останки украинского танка на Кременном направлении, уничтоженного три дня назад. Разорвало в клочья. Наш Т90 «Прорыв» выехал «в хвост» коробочке ВСУ. Результат - на наших эксклюзивных фото. Противник не успел даже отстреляться в ответ, сдетонировал боекомплект. Если бы не валяющаяся башня...

t.me

Russian forces are reporting some advances towards Kupyansk, taking the village of Masyutovka.

Colonelcassad

Сообщается об успешных тактических действиях наших войск на Купянском направлении. Войска со стороны Таволжанки и Двуречного потеснили противника и завязали бои за освобождение поселка Масютовка, что создает предпосылки к продвижению на Купянск с северо-востока, что может дополниться...

t.me

LDNR Front.

A destroyed BMP-2 allegedly Ukrainian in Donetsk region. Context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Еще одна уничтоженная украинская БМП-2 в ДНР. видео: @ChDambiev

t.me

DNR 3rd Brigade firing on Ukrainian positions.

Colonelcassad

Артиллеристы 3 гвардейской бригады нанесли огневое поражение по позиции ВСУ, после чего к ней подошёл танк довершивший разгром врага огнём прямой наводкой. Украинские боевики бежали бросая своих раненых и убитых. источник: @nm_dnr

t.me

Ukrainian MANPADS teams attempt to but fail to down a Russian Su-25 near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Footage of a fire fight inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the Ukrainian side.

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vk.com

Allegedly Ukrainian BTR-80 destroyed by a tank shell near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Артемовское направление. БТР ВСУ после прямого попадания танкового снаряда.

t.me

Ukrainian mortar ops inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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vk.com

A Ukrainian T-72M1 upgraded, maneuvering in the yard of an apartment building, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Танк ВСУ с крестами маневрирует во дворе жилого дома в Артемовске. Противник продолжает укреплять оборону на улицах города, где скоро должны начаться уличные бои.

t.me

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vk.com

More footage of Ukrainian forces preparing Artemovsk/Bakhmut for street battles.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ готовятся к уличным боям в Артемовске.

t.me

TRF1 howitzers, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Relatively new arrivals.

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vk.com

What appear to be fresh T-90Ms in Lugansk region. This is a great illustration for the need for modern tanks for Ukraine. Going up against these in T-72M1s is borderline suicidal.

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vk.com

Dmitriy Rogozin, on a visit to Donetsk, was apparently wounded during a Ukrainian shelling of the restaurant he was at. 1 civilian reported killed, either his bodyguard or a bystander.

Moscow calling

Сообщают, что Дмитрий Рогозин ранен в спину при обстреле ресторана "Шеш-Беш" в Донецке, угрозы его жизни нет — экс-главу Роскосмоса госпитализировали. Также ранены сопровождавшие его люди.

t.me

Moscow calling

В Донецке обстрелян ресторан "Шеш-Беш", где Дмитрий Рогозин (позывной "Сармат") отмечал день рождения - RUPTLY. По сообщениям донецких телеграм-каналов, Дмитрий Рогозин отмечал здесь свой 59-й день рождения, когда откуда не возьмись, появился вротебись в виде 155-мм снарядов. По сообщениям...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Обстрелян ресторан в Донецке, где Дмитрий Рогозин отмечал день рождения. По сообщениям местных пабликов есть погибшие и раненые Сам Дмитрий Рогозин не пострадал

t.me

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vk.com

Other shelling of Donetsk also continues.

Colonelcassad

Украинские террористы вечером снова обстреляли Донецк из РСЗО.

t.me

ДНР Онлайн

Последствия обстрела украинскими боевиками Киевского района Донецка

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет в Донецке. Вечером противник обстреливал город из РСЗО и 155-мм артиллерии.

t.me

Russia.

Russian defense line in Belgorod region.

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Misc.

Russian Ka-52 taking out allegedly a Ukrainian armored car. Location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Ударные вертолеты Ка-52 ВКС России атакуют вражеские цели управляемыми ракетами и наносят удары неуправляемыми авиационными ракетами по обнаруженным укрепленным пунктам и районам сосредоточения живой силы ВСУ.

t.me

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vk.com

A Russian LMUR strike, against a building. Location and context unclear.

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian MLRS getting hit by a Russian Krasnopol' ground. We can see the MLRS fires.

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vk.com

Russian Forpost-R strike against allegedly a Ukrainian armored car.

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian army SUV getting hit by a grenade drop from a quadcopter.

Colonelcassad

Разведчики выявили внедорожник врага и бомба поразила его в капот. Наши бойцы ведут разведку и охоту на врага дронами Maviс на всех фронтах, уничтожая личный состав и военную технику ВСУ. видео: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Allegedly a Pantsyr downing 4/6 GMLRS rockets, with the other two landing nearby.

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vk.com

A downed allegedly Ukrainian agricultural UAV refitted for combat use.

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vk.com

Ukrainian BMP-2 captured, location and context unclear. Note the up-armored sides.

Бронерезиний перекочевал и в XXI век

Трофейная БМП-2 ВСУ. Пытаюсь понять что с орудием

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian loitering munition stuck in the netting put up over a Ukrainian T-72.

Moscow calling

В маскировочной сетке украинского танка застрял БПЛА-снаряд, очень похожий на выставленный в Москве "псевдоЛанцет". Настоящий "Ланцет-3" скромно притаился позади - равно как и его "успехи" оказались далеко в тени, вероятно, иранского клона "Hero-30".

t.me

An interesting look of a tank-chassis engineers vehicle being used to tow a stuck Humvee because the roads are that bad. Note this is both an excellent illustration of why Soviet armored vehicles had such high mobility requirements, and likely applies to Russian forces as well as more and more transition to wheeled transport.

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vk.com

Russian upgraded AGS-17s and AGS-30s have shown up in the war zone. This seems to be part of a pattern of gearing up the MIC in every area possible.

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vk.com

French-supplied M-270s have shown up in Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

LRU - Французский аналог РСЗО M270 где-то на Украине. Как раз на замену недавно уничтоженным и поврежденным на запорожском направлении "Марсам" и M270. @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine has begun up-armoring their locomotives, presumably to minimize damage from potential Russian strikes.

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The World.

Volga-Dnepr An-124s have apparently been flying to China, for unclear purposes.

Dambiev

Тяжелые транспортные самолеты Ан-124-100 российской авиакомпании "Волга-Днепр" совершают посадки в аэропортах китайских городов Чжэнчжоу (провинция Хэнань) и Сиань (провинция Шэньси). Самолеты прибыли КНР за очередной партией "товаров народного потребления".

t.me

 

[Redshift]

Took a gander around the nuances of maintaining the steel beasts UKR is getting. Numbers of tanks are mentioned but no mention of recovery vehicles and all of the tail end stuff is apparent. Found this interesting video of a power pack swap in a LEO. Going by the video run time, it takes about 30 minutes to swap power packs for a LEO. This is the kind of skills UKR will need to absorb.

The announcement of the UK Challenger 2 tanks includes recovery and repair assets.

Quote below taken from the linked article.

"A squadron of Challenger 2 tanks with armoured recovery and repair vehicles"

https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/01/challenger-2-tanks-to-ukraine/

 

[swerve]

The announcement of the UK Challenger 2 tanks includes recovery and repair assets.

IIRC so does the donation of M1s by the USA.

 

[swerve]

That's back to old arguments that what Ukrainian ground forces has thrown so far, is significantly much weaker then what NATO ground forces capable to throw. Thus Russian ground forces will not have chances if 'real' NATO ground forces come out to face them.

Well there's enough studies even by Western analysts that shown what Ukrainian thrown toward Russian, not something that most NATO members can thrown. Indicating Ukranian ground forces is not weaker then NATO ones. Which again back to arguments is Russian now bog down by much weaker ground forces compare to NATO ones, or actually a comparable ones.

Thus back toward whether this war already depleting Russian ground forces, or the war manage actually rebuild Russian dormant capacities. All raise question if NATO ground forces can 'easily' destroy Russian conventional forces, just because they're now bog down by supposedly 'weak' Ukrainian by NATO standard.

The Ukrainian army had a lot of old tanks, old artillery, & old rocket launchers. The total volume of fire it could generate was impressive, but the modern western weapons it's been given have had an effect greatly out of proportion to numbers. So don't look at crude firepower, but consider the effect of ten times as many HIMARS, CAESAR & PzH2000, M1A2 & Leopard 2A5/6/7 instead of T-64/72/80, etc., & the sky controlled by NATO aircraft with PGMs in very large numbers.

 

[seaspear]

Especially now since Russia has expended vast amounts of its munitions and had significant losses of personnel and material in this war

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Some of the major news websites and agencies are reporting that Italy and France will send 700 Aster30 missiles to Ukraine.
This Is a FAKE NEWS.
The missiles were bought jointly and will be delivered to italian and french Armed Forces.
The delivery wont start apparently before 2025.
I posted the link in the proper 3d, but since the main italian media Just reported this fake news, I wanted to point It out.

 

[Ananda]

but the modern western weapons it's been given have had an effect greatly out of proportion to numbers.

That's still debateable, whether those 'modern' western weapons really provide better performance on much bigger proportion then Ukranian own stocks. Each sides reports shown different effect on those Western weapons vis a vis Ukranian own stocks.

 

[Dex]

That's still debateable, whether those 'modern' western weapons really provide better performance on much bigger proportion then Ukranian own stocks. Each sides reports shown different effect on those Western weapons vis a vis Ukranian own stocks.

It's clear that Abrams are 100x better than whatever tanks Ukraine had. We saw the results when NATO fought against Iraq in the Gulf War who had a lot of the old tanks that Russia is currently using. The NATO forces destroyed 3,300 Iraqi tanks compared to losing 31 tanks. If you do the math, that's a 106-1 kill ratio right in line with the 100x better number I said.

We saw how much damage Ukraine did with the few HIMARS they had. Ukraine only has 16 HIMARS. The US has 410 of them and Romania has 54. That's 29x more HIMARS.

I don't even need to get into the F16/18/35 which is in the order of magnitudes more effective than Ukraine's non-existent Air Force.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

It's clear that Abrams are 100x better than whatever tanks Ukraine had. We saw the results when NATO fought against Iraq in the Gulf War who had a lot of the old tanks that Russia is currently using. The NATO forces destroyed 3,300 Iraqi tanks compared to losing 31 tanks. If you do the math, that's a 106-1 kill ratio right in line with the 100x better number I said.

We saw how much damage Ukraine did with the few HIMARS they had. Ukraine only has 16 HIMARS. The US has 410 of them and Romania has 54. That's 29x more HIMARS.

I don't even need to get into the F16/18/35 which is in the order of magnitudes more effective than Ukraine's non-existent Air Force.

With 100% air superiority. That's not the case here.

 

[Vivendi]

That's still debateable, whether those 'modern' western weapons really provide better performance on much bigger proportion then Ukranian own stocks. Each sides reports shown different effect on those Western weapons vis a vis Ukranian own stocks.

Sure! If you look at Russian state media and think "hey! this is as credible as reports from the rest of the world!"

Look at the reports from non-Western non-Russian media: Western HIMARS/GLSMR have had a significant impact in spite of relatively low numbers.

Ukraine devastates Russian artillery depots ahead of offensive | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Also modern Western artillery (CAESAR, PZH 2000) has made a significant impact in spite of low numbers. Whether you believe it or not, it does not change the facts.

The Western tanks being prepared for shipment are for the most part not "state of the art" but old stuff -- nevertheless, once they reach a critical mass (100? 200?) they will also make a difference. Don't take my word for it. Just wait and watch.

 

[Vivendi]

Ok so if by consulted you're thinking of a non-binding opinion poll to be regarded or disregarded I don't see how that helps. But if you're saying a binding referendum, then you've just taken Russia's view of the situation. Let the locals decide

No.

That's not Russia's position. "Russia's" (i.e., Putin's) position is "let's pretend to make a referendum, let's pretend to let the locals decide". Russia has absolutely no intention of letting any proper democratic process determine anything: not in Russia, not in Crimea, and not in Kherson.

 

[Ananda]

you look at Russian state media and think "hey! this is as credible as reports from the rest of the world!"

Off course for you everything coming from Russia is lies. Getting balance view is foolish.

at the reports from non-Western non-Russian media: Western HIMARS/GLSMR have had a significant impact in spite of relatively low numbers.

Overhyped, Overpriced Or Both? Russia Hammers HIMARS MLRS Systems That Ukraine Touted As S-400 Killer

The Lockheed Martin HIMARS is the third weapons platform, along with the Javelin and the M777 lightweight howitzer that the US armed Ukraine

eurasiantimes.com

This Turkish media try to look more balanced view. Or do you think Turkiye media also lies ? Well that's the problem if only try to justify only Western view.

Don't take my word for it. Just wait and watch.

Ahh, seems we agree on something. Let's wait and watch, and may I add, try to see it on all angles and more balanced view.

 

[kato]

Numbers of tanks are mentioned but no mention of recovery vehicles and all of the tail end stuff is apparent.

Germany announced two BPz recovery vehicles with the 14 Leopard it is donating, as this is basically what a Leopard 2 company (of that size) gets for support in the Bundeswehr. There'll probably be more from others in the user group.

 

[vikingatespam]

You should have stayed out of east europe, but espec. out of former soviet union countries.

thx

I should point out that most of Eastern Europe wanted to join NATO due to fears about Russia. Those fears appear to be well-founded.

Putin could not care less about the expansion of NATO - after all he worked so hard to get Sweden and Finland to join.

 

[KipPotapych]

Explosions on Iranian MIC reported. Looks like three Shahed assembly plants and, supposedly, drones are the cause. Interesting.

В Иране сообщили об атаке беспилотников на завод боеприпасов

Склад завода боеприпасов в иранском Исфахане был атакован беспилотниками. Об этом сообщает IRNA. В результате атаки жертв нет. Уточняется, что один из дронов был сбит системой противовоздушной обороны, еще два попали в оборонительные ловушки и взорвались.

m.lenta.ru

 

[Dex]

Off course for you everything coming from Russia is lies. Getting balance view is foolish.

Overhyped, Overpriced Or Both? Russia Hammers HIMARS MLRS Systems That Ukraine Touted As S-400 Killer

The Lockheed Martin HIMARS is the third weapons platform, along with the Javelin and the M777 lightweight howitzer that the US armed Ukraine

eurasiantimes.com

This Turkish media try to look more balanced view. Or do you think Turkiye media also lies ? Well that's the problem if only try to justify only Western view.



Ahh, seems we agree on something. Let's wait and watch, and may I add, try to see it on all angles and more balanced view.

That article is from July. It's pretty obvious that HIMARS has done a number on Russia. Remember the New Years party where 600 recruits died while celebrating New Years? That was from HIMARS.

 

[John Fedup]

With 100% air superiority. That's not the case here.

Indeed, IIRC, many tanks were taken out by air assets. However, tank on tank encounters saw the Abrams winning virtually every time. This was likely due more to training and tactics but the Abrams was a superior platform. Just my two cents.